Renovation Downturn Forces These Home Furnishing Retailers To Increase Deals

Renovation Downturn Forces These Home Furnishing Retailers To Increase Deals

Record-high home prices, combined with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassing 7% once again, continue to create the worst housing affordability environment in a generation. Consequently, the residential renovation market sours, pressuring home furnishing companies to offer better deals. 

A team of Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane updated their proprietary home furnishings promotional tracker for November, in which they found increased promotions, markdowns, and free shipping across the industry for notable home furnishings retailers including Arhaus, At Home, Bassett Furniture, Cost Plus World Market, Crate & Barrel, Ethan Allen Interiors, Havertys, Kirkland’s, Pottery Barn, PB Teen, Pottery Barn Kids, Rejuvenation, Wayfair, and West Elm.

McShane noted that average markdowns were slightly higher for the industry year-over-year last month, although Williams-Sonoma was one of the only home furnishings retailers not offering increased deals to somewhat flattish compared with the same month last year. 

Here are the key observations from their findings:

  • Free shipping ticked up sequentially and year over year in November across the industry and Williams Sonoma banners;

  • Markdowns increased sequentially and year over year across the industry;

  • Promotions are notably higher sequentially and year over year at the Williams Sonoma banner, while promotions are lower at West Elm and Rejuvenation

Industry-wide, markdowns increased month-over-month and year-over-year, with PB Kids and Wayfair offering the best deals

  • November’s industry markdowns increased both m/m and y/y: Sequentially, the average markdown across the industry increased m/m at 40% in Nov vs. 37%/37%/41% in Oct/Sep/Aug. The average markdown increased y/y compared to 39% in Nov ’23.

  • Markdown level by company: Overall, PB Kids (58%) and Wayfair (58%) were the companies with the highest average markdowns in Nov ’24. PB Teen, Rejuvenation, and West Elm had the highest markdowns on a 1-year average (also taking account of consistency in promotions over the months).

  • Free shipping: Overall days of free shipping increased both sequentially and y/y in Nov ’24 to 14 days, vs. 9/13 days in Oct’ 24/Nov ’23. Kirkland’s, Pottery Barn, and Williams-Sonoma offered free shipping every day in Nov ’24, with the next highest frequency seen at PB Kids’s at 29 days.

McShane noted, “While we don’t include RH in our promotional analysis, we do note the company continues to advertise its fall clearance sale with up to 60% off outdoor, living, dining, and bedroom items.” 

Average Markdowns on a retailer basis:

Pottery Barn 

West Elm

Williams-Sonoma

Rejuvenation

The number of days home furnishings companies offered ‘free shipping’ last month surged. 

Williams-Sonoma’s free shipping promotion was much higher than the industry average. 

The entire industry has been in the dumps since the Covid spike.

And this is why.

McShane highlighted that the barometer for the residential renovation market remains uninspiring. 

Given all this, there are indeed deals for patient consumers who held back during the Covid surge in home renovations. Goldman’s McShane gives readers a broad understanding of what home furnishings companies offer the best deals. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 18:00

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Trump Selects Peter Navarro As Top Trade Adviser

Trump Selects Peter Navarro As Top Trade Adviser

Authored by Jackson Richman and Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump announced on Dec. 4 that he has selected Peter Navarro as senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.

During Trump’s first term, Navarro, a staunch advocate of tariffs, served as director of the National Trade Council and as director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.

The former director of the U.S. Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, Peter Navarro, speaks on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, on July 17, 2024. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Trump said the new role “leverages Peter’s broad range of White House experience while harnessing his extensive policy analytic and media skills.”

Navarro’s “mission will be to help successfully advance and communicate the Trump manufacturing, tariff, and trade agendas,” the president-elect said.

Navarro was released from prison on July 17 after serving a four-month sentence for refusing to appear before the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

Tariffs were an integral economic policy feature of Trump’s 2024 election campaign. Since his victory last month, Trump has threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, slap 10 percent levies on Chinese goods, and implement a 100 percent tariff on countries engaged in anti-dollar activities.

As one of the top White House economic and trade advisers in Trump’s first administration, Navarro was a leading voice in enacting tariffs on the United States’ trading partners, particularly China.

Navarro said levies would help level the playing field and rectify what he viewed as unfair imbalances in international trade.

“President Trump has made it clear he’s a free trader. He’s made it abundantly clear that for this administration, free trade means is free, fair, reciprocal, and balanced,” Navarro said in prepared remarks at a June 2018 Hudson Institute event outlining Trump’s policy regarding the U.S.–China trade relationship.

In 2019, he also championed Trump’s threat of tariffs on Mexico in response to Mexico’s “exports” of “illegal aliens.”

This is strictly about national security and threats to our economy from illegal immigration from a criminal enterprise,” Navarro told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”

Despite various criticisms that Trump’s tariffs would ignite inflation pressures and weigh on economic growth prospects, Navarro defended his trade agenda as “one of the most successful applications of a defense trade policy in U.S. history.”

Appearing at a Harvard University event in April 2019, Navarro declared that “Ricardo is dead.” This was in reference to 19th-century economist David Ricardo, who touted that international trade is always beneficial and that nations can prosper with the theory of “comparative advantage.”

However, according to Navarro, 19th-century economic philosophies have little relevance in modern global markets filled with “industrial espionage, rampant cheating, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, state capitalism, and currency misalignments.”

Navarro has been reluctant to back trade agreements supported by whom he called “globalist elites” on Wall Street.

“If Wall Street is involved and continues to insinuate itself into these negotiations, there will be a stench around any deal that’s consummated because it will have the imprimatur of Goldman Sachs and Wall Street,” Navarro said in a 2019 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Navarro will not be the only pro-tariff official in the incoming administration.

Trump has been surrounding himself with staunch defenders of his trade agenda.

Scott Bessent, a Wall Street financier tapped to lead the Treasury Department, has been vocal in supporting levies on U.S. trading partners.

Bessent has spoken favorably about tariffs, describing the measure as a negotiating tool to accomplish the president-elect’s foreign policy objectives.

“Whether it is getting allies to spend more on their own defense, opening foreign markets to U.S. exports, securing cooperation on ending illegal immigration and interdicting fentanyl trafficking, or deterring military aggression, tariffs can play a central role,” Bessent wrote in a recent Fox News op-ed.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Bessent also said that tariffs should be “layered in gradually” to prevent immediate inflationary pressures and allow disinflationary measures to offset higher prices.

Trump selected billionaire Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary.

Lutnick, the CEO of investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, has also endorsed tariffs, calling them “bargaining chips” to negotiate better trade pacts that can slash levies.

“I think tariffs make sense,” Lutnick told CNBC’s “Money Movers” in September. “We should compare what people tariff us and put the exact same tariffs on them and make it equal.”

The president-elect recently rounded out his economic team with Kevin Hassett as director of the White House National Economic Council and international trade attorney Jamieson Greer as U.S. trade representative.

Hassett was the previous head of the Council of Economic Advisers, a position that Trump has yet to announce.

According to Trump, Greer was integral in his first term in replacing the decades-old North American Free Trade Agreement with the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement and implementing tariffs on China.

Greer was the chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, who served as Trump’s former trade representative.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 17:40

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Israel Warns Troops Against Traveling Abroad Over ‘Blacklists’ In Europe 

Israel Warns Troops Against Traveling Abroad Over ‘Blacklists’ In Europe 

Israel continues feeling the pressure in the wake of the controversial International Criminal Court’s (ICC) decision to issue arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant for overseeing alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s military has issued an alert to all troops warning about travel abroad. “Some soldiers have already been required to leave countries they visited due to concerns about legal proceedings,” the Israeli news site Ynet reports Wednesday.

The report details that in many cases pro-Palestinian organizations are pressuring governments abroad to block certain individuals from traveling, by creating “blacklists” with details of Israeli army soldiers. Names and photos are used and circulated while “hoping to identify future travel plans.”

Via Flash90

“Individual proceedings against soldiers and junior officers traveling abroad could be based on ICC rulings. To any soldier or officer, if they are arrested, summoned for questioning, or feel they are being followed or photographed while abroad, Israel will provide immediate legal assistance through its local embassy or the Foreign Ministry’s situation room,” the army said in the message.

“In non-ICC member countries such as the US, China, or India, there is local legislation governing the law of war. These nations are not obligated to act on ICC arrest warrants, but local laws could still pose risks,” it added. 

 Ynet notes that some European governments have already taken action against over a dozen soldiers:

The IDF has identified about 30 cases of criminal proceedings initiated against its members. At least eight soldiers, including some who had traveled to Cyprus, Slovenia and the Netherlands, were forced to leave immediately.

The push for the arrest warrants was overseen by The Hague-based ICC’s Karim Khan, and subsequently the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were obtained on November 21.

While the ICC has no enforcement arm, relying on individual member states, it creates a political headache for the Israeli government. And clearly, given the army’s warning to all ranks of troops, the warrants are having a chilling and trickle-down effect.

Israel, the US, and some other allies have blasted the ICC move as outrageous and even ‘antisemitic’. The ICC has in turn said it has long faced coercion and threats from Israeli officials.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 17:20

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The FBI Has Been Political From The Start

The FBI Has Been Political From The Start

Authored by Connor O’Keefe via The Mises Institute,

On Saturday night, Donald Trump announced he intends to appoint Kash Patel as director of the FBI.

The news sparked an immediate frenzy from establishment figures across media and politics.

Legal and national security “experts” were deployed to the Sunday morning news shows to characterize the move as evidence that Trump intends to politicize the FBI and use it as a weapon against his many political opponents.

The political establishment’s concerns about what a Trump FBI could do mirror a lot of what we’ve heard from the right in recent years as they found themselves in the Bureau’s crosshairs.

But almost all of these complaints and warnings have operated under the assumption that—with maybe the exception of a few bad episodes in the 1960s—the FBI has long been an essential crime-fighting force that has only recently become—or threatens to become—corrupted by politics.

In truth, the FBI has always been used as a weapon against political movements and rivals of the established political class. That’s the reason it was created.

At the end of the 1800s, left-wing anarchists were attacking heads of state all across Europe. In a few short years, the king of Italy, the prime minister of Spain, the empress of Austria, and the president of France were all assassinated by anarchists. While no communist or anarchist movement had yet to take over a country, the tenacity of these activists and revolutionaries was seriously concerning those in power in the United States.

Then, in 1901, President William McKinley was shot and killed by an anarchist while attending a meet-and-greet in Buffalo, New York, which brought his vice president, Theodore Roosevelt, into office. It was President Roosevelt who tapped his Attorney General Charles Bonaparte—the grandnephew of Napoleon—to create the FBI.

The AG was required by law to get congressional approval before creating this new “investigative” service of special agents within the Department of Justice. In the spring of 1908, Bonaparte officially requested the money and authority to create the FBI. Congress came back with an emphatic no.

Members of the House saw through the innocuous language of the request and figured out exactly what the president and AG were doing—creating a secret police force that was answerable only to them.

House Democrats like Joseph Swagar and John J. Fitzgerald and Republicans like Walter I. Smith and George Waldo all loudly condemned the proposal, saying it called for a “system of espionage” comparable to the Tsar’s secret police in Russia that stood in stark contrast to the very principles at the heart of the American system. Congress explicitly forbade the AG from creating this new Bureau.

So what did Bonaparte do? He waited for Congress to break for the summer and then went ahead and created the FBI anyway.

Congress was only notified about the new federal police force half a year later when Bonaparte included a quick throw-away line at the end of his annual report: “It became necessary for the department to organize a small force of special agents of its own.”

So, the FBI was not created in response to out-of-control crime; its creation was a crime.

Immediately, the new Bureau was unleashed on anyone and everyone who was perceived as a threat to those in power. That started with left-wing anarchists but quickly expanded to include many antiwar activists as President Wilson pulled the country into World War I.

From the outset, the FBI operated primarily as a domestic intelligence agency—recruiting spies within groups they were targeting and breaking into their offices and homes, intercepting mail, and tapping the phones of anyone they considered a threat.

As the years wore on—like most other executive agencies—the Bureau evolved away from serving the direct interests of whoever happened to sit in the Oval Office to instead serve its own interest and the interest of the broader entrenched, permanent power structure in Washington.

In the ‘50s, ‘60s, and ‘70s, the FBI conducted covert operations aimed at inciting violence between domestic groups, breaking up political organizations it disapproved of, and, perhaps most famously, collecting blackmail on Martin Luther King Jr. that they then tried to use to drive him to commit suicide.

Although today’s FBI acknowledges and publicly disavows these past activities, they are still carrying out egregious operations that always seem to benefit the political class. The Bureau has taken up a kind of sting operation where, over and over again, agents find isolated, gullible, often mentally-handicapped young men, pretend to be political radicals or higher-ups in a terrorist organization, and then convince the young men to plan and carry out a terrorist attack with FBI-funds and resources. Agents then step in at the end and act like they heroically stopped a real plot.

The FBI did this relentlessly with young Muslim men after 9/11. The arrests helped prolong the perception that the global war on terror and extreme measures like the Patriot Act were necessary.

In recent years, the FBI has conducted a number of similar schemes with right-wing groups—advancing the establishment’s narrative that Donald Trump is radicalizing “uneducated” middle Americans and turning them into violent insurrectionists.

And then there are, of course, all the ways the FBI directly tried to undermine and hinder Trump’s first term. Right-wingers are correctly deriding the establishment for panicking about Trump’s FBI doing to them what they have tried to do to him. But many—on both sides—go wrong when they present the Bureau as only recently, or imminently, being corrupted into serving the interests of those in power. That’s been its role since the beginning.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 17:00

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Bitcoin Nears Record High As Trump Nominates Crypto-Friendly Paul Atkins To Replace Gensler As SEC Chair

Bitcoin Nears Record High As Trump Nominates Crypto-Friendly Paul Atkins To Replace Gensler As SEC Chair

With the departure of the most corrupt and incompetent – not to mention most hacked – SEC chair in history, Gary Gensler, is finally out.

And, as we predicted, President-elect Donald Trump has nominated pro-crypto Paul Atkins to replace Gensler as the new chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)… and BTC exploded higher on the news…

As CoinTelegraph’s Vince Quill reports, in a Dec. 4 announcement, Trump highlighted Atkins’ track record and experience as a former SEC commissioner. Trump wrote via Truth Social:

“Paul is the CEO & Founder of Patomak Global Partners, a risk management consultancy. As Co-Chairman of the Digital Chamber’s Token Alliance since 2017, he has worked on & studied the digital assets industry.”

“A former SEC Commissioner from 2002-2008, Paul strongly advocated for transparency & protecting investors,” Trump continued.

“He also recognizes that digital assets & other innovations are crucial to Making America Greater than Ever Before.”

Source: Donald Trump

The nomination of a pro-crypto SEC commissioner was one of Trump’s promises to crypto voters early on in his campaign and a highlight of his keynote address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

Atkins served as an SEC commissioner from 2002 through 2008.

Despite the threats of removal, Gary Gensler doubled down on his anti-crypto rhetoric in November before finally tendering his resignation.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 16:40

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Tucker Carlson Returns To Russia; Warns “We Are Closer To Nuclear War Than Ever”

Tucker Carlson Returns To Russia; Warns “We Are Closer To Nuclear War Than Ever”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Tucker Carlson has returned to Moscow to interview Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as the outgoing Biden administration pushes the US ever closer to a hot war with Russia.

“In the week since we left Russia, Moscow, where we are now in February, after interviewing Vladimir Putin, we’ve watched from the United States as the Biden administration has driven the US ever closer to a nuclear conflict with Russia, the country that possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal,” Carlson announced.

He continued, “It has accelerated ever since, and it’s reached its apogee so far in the weeks after Trump’s election. He’s now the President-elect. In that time, just a few weeks ago, the Biden Administration, American military personnel launched missiles into mainland Russia and killed at least a dozen Russian soldiers.”

“So we are, unbeknownst to most Americans, in a hot war with Russia, an undeclared war, a war you did not vote for and that most Americans don’t want, but that is ongoing,” Carlson urged.

“And because of that war because of the fact that the US military is killing Russians in Russia right now, we are closer to nuclear war than at any time in history, far closer than we were during the Cuban Missile crisis,” Carlson warned, adding “That would mean the elimination of Russia, the United States, and most of the rest of the world.”

“We felt there must be someone behind the scenes in Washington working to make sure that this conflict doesn’t become a nuclear Holocaust. But we found out that no, in fact, there is nobody,” he explained, noting that the State Department has cut off all communication with Russia.

Tucker also revealed that he has been trying to sit down with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy but has been prevented from doing so by the US government who have ordered Zelenskyy not to do the interview.

Watch:

Biden’s government refuses to engage in diplomatic exchanges with Russia, despite serious escalation that risks cataclysmic war, and Tucker Carlson is having to try to fill the void.

Disgraceful.

Meanwhile, Democratic strategist James Carville claimed Tuesday on MSNBC’s “The Beat” that Carlson has had the most influence with regards to Trump’s cabinet nominations.

Carville claimed “One person is driving this, I promise you. And it’s Tucker Carlson. Tucker’s an old friend of mine.”

Carville added that Tucker “has more influence in this current administration, way more than Vernon Jordan had in the Clinton administration or any of the kind of wise men that were around,” adding that “Tucker is very, very, very powerful.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 16:20

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Microsoft Urges FTC Inspector General To Investigate Alleged Leaks To Media

Microsoft Urges FTC Inspector General To Investigate Alleged Leaks To Media

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Microsoft formally requested that the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) Inspector General investigate potential leaks of confidential information from within the agency to media outlets.

In a letter dated Dec. 3, Microsoft expressed concern over a recent Bloomberg News report detailing a purported antitrust investigation into the company.

“On November 27, 2024, Bloomberg News reported that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) had ‘opened an antitrust investigation’ of Microsoft,” wrote Rima Alaily, corporate vice president and deputy general counsel.

“This type of information, as well as references in the story to ‘people familiar with the information request,’ strongly suggests that the details included in Bloomberg’s story come from within the FTC.”

Microsoft said that it learned of the supposed investigation through the media report and has yet to receive any formal legal process, from the FTC.

The FTC told The Epoch Times in an email that it has no comment on the matter.

Alaily noted that when Microsoft inquired about the validity of the Bloomberg story, FTC staff would not confirm the existence of the information request.

The Bloomberg report described an allegedly extensive information demand issued to Microsoft, “which is hundreds of pages long,” and indicated that FTC Chair Lina Khan had signed off on it.

The report suggested that the FTC’s antitrust lawyers are set to meet with Microsoft’s competitors to gather more information about the company’s business practices.

This incident, according to Microsoft, is part of a “trend over the last two years of the FTC strategically leaking nonpublic information.”

The letter noted that “FTC law enforcement investigations are nonpublic.”

Alaily referenced a report by FTC Inspector General Andrew Katsaros, which observed that unauthorized disclosures of nonpublic information (NPI) have been “steadily increasing” during Khan’s tenure.

“The trust of businesses, consumers, and other affected parties that the FTC will not improperly disclose NPI is vital to the FTC’s ability to execute on its law enforcement mission,“ Katsaros wrote in the Sept. 30 report.

”The mere perception that the FTC is leaking such information erodes that trust.”

Alaily quoted from that report and urged a full investigation into the leak and requested that the findings be made public promptly.

In October, Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), and colleagues sent a letter to DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz and FTC’s Katsaros, demanding an investigation into “systematic media leaks” that resulted in negative headlines about antitrust targets.

“These leaks result in negative headlines about the administration’s targets while the targeted companies have no way to respond, as they haven’t yet seen the potential lawsuits,” the senators wrote.

“Both DOJ and FTC have ethics rules that prohibit leaking civil cases before the cases are filed.”

The FTC’s Office of Inspector General has not indicated whether it will pursue an investigation in response to Microsoft’s request and did not respond to a request from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 15:45

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Why More Middle Income Americans Are Struggling to Save Money

Why More Middle Income Americans Are Struggling to Save Money

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

Reduced inflation and wage increases haven’t stemmed the economic struggles of middle-class Americans. In fact, some middle-income earners say it’s harder than ever to put money away in savings.

Many ascribe this to stagnant wages and higher prices for things like gas, groceries, and utilities that began in 2021 and persist to this day.

The United States hit a 41-year inflation high in 2022, which is when residents saw historic price hikes. In 2022, the consumer price index soared by more than 9 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, wrote in an article.

Two years later, inflation has fallen to 2.6 percent, but Americans aren’t seeing price adjustments in areas like grocery stores, housing costs, utility bills, and insurance.

Mary Lopez, a marketing manager and middle-income earner at Trusted Wedding Gown Preservation, a New Jersey-based business, said wage stagnation and a higher cost of living across the board has made it hard to save money and maintain a middle-class lifestyle.

“In terms of significant changes, my household, like many others, has felt the impact in areas like health care and housing,” Lopez told The Epoch Times via email.

“For instance, the rate of health insurance has spiraled upward and we’ve faced hikes in rent consistently. Many of my peers cite similar experiences, struggling to save amid these increasing costs.”

The median home price in September 2024 was just over $400,000. This represents the highest September median the National Association of Realtors has ever recorded and is $20,000 shy of the all time high, according to a Bankrate analysis. The rental markets haven’t fared any better, with asking prices more than 33 percent higher than before the pandemic.

The average premium for single coverage health care increased by 6 percent this year and family premiums rose 7 percent.

“Middle class” as defined by the Pew Research Center is households with two-thirds to double the U.S. median household income. In 2023, the median household income was $80,610, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A White House press release stated that real wages—the amount received with inflation taken into account—grew more than 4 percent between 2022 and 2024. But even with a rise in purchasing power, many U.S. residents aren’t seeing the difference when paying their bills.

People shop at a grocery store in Columbia, Md., on Oct. 24, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Wage Stagnation Versus Inflation

David Kindness, CPA and finance writer at Best Money, said wage growth hasn’t kept pace with rising costs.

“Even with inflation cooling in certain areas, essential goods and services remain stubbornly expensive, eating up larger chunks of household budgets,” he told The Epoch Times via email.

“Rising grocery bills have made weekly shopping trips a source of financial stress. Many families, including my own, have had to rework their budgets to accommodate these increases, cutting back in other areas to stay afloat,” he said.

Ali Zane, a financial planner and founder of Imax Credit Repair, said that one of the most overlooked drivers of “paycheck-to-paycheck” living is the disconnect between wage growth and the actual cost of living.

“While inflation is blamed, stagnant wages over the past two decades are the root issue. Salaries may inch upward, but housing prices, which rose 30 to 40 percent in many regions since 2020, have far outpaced them. Add in the relentless climb of healthcare premiums and childcare expenses, and it’s no wonder families feel financially strapped,” Zane told The Epoch Times in a text.

Evidence supports the claim that real wage growth hasn’t outpaced inflation. Since January 2021, prices have risen 20 percent, while U.S. wages increased 17.4 percent during the same period, according to Bankrate’s second-annual Wage To Inflation Index.

But this isn’t a new problem. Real wage growth began to slow in the 1970s compared to overall economic performance in the United States, according to researchers at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Historically, real wage stagnation has been attributed to globalization and automation. Kellogg finance professor Efraim Benmelech disagrees.

“None of these explanations goes back long enough in time,” he said. Wage growth has been slowing since the early 1970s,” he said in a 2019 economic analysis.

With colleagues at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Benmelech points to what is known as “labor market concentration” as a hidden culprit. This is when having too few employers in a given industry creates a sort of unofficial salary price fixing.

A credit card decal is displayed on the window of a business in San Rafael, Calif., on Feb. 7, 2024. Credit card debt in U.S. households increased by $24 billion in the third quarter of this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

“There has been a discussion in recent years about what happened to middle-class Americans,” Benmelech said. “We don’t say that we have the only explanation, but we have an explanation that is consistent and can explain the long-term phenomenon of stagnant wages.”

America’s struggle to save money is also evident in the country’s mountain of credit card debt. In the third quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that credit card balances in U.S. households increased by $24 billion. Total household debt also increased in the third quarter, hitting $17.94 trillion.

“Many of my friends and clients have shared that they’re finding it harder to save, even those who had strong habits before,” Kindness said. “Unexpected expenses, like medical bills or car repairs, quickly eat into any money set aside for emergencies. With monthly costs already stretching their paychecks thin, putting away money for the future often feels out of reach.”

Kindness said he’s noticed that savings goals among his middle-class peers have shifted away from long term dreams such as buying a home or early retirement to simply having an emergency fund.

“It’s not just that middle-income families aren’t saving. They’re actively going into debt to stay afloat. The rise in buy-now-pay-later options for groceries and essentials shows just how precarious cash flow has become,” Zane said.

Paycheck to Paycheck

In October, Bank of America released a sobering study on American households living paycheck to paycheck. The results indicated the number of households barely making it between paychecks has increased across every income bracket since 2019, even those making more than $150,000 per year.

Middle-income earners in the $51,000 to $75,000 range had the largest increase between 2019 and 2024, after households with less than $50,000, in which a quarter or more live paycheck to paycheck.

Moving up the income spectrum showed similar results, with roughly a quarter of all households living in this manner. Almost half of all respondents perceive themselves as living paycheck to paycheck.

The study noted that these households have much higher necessity spending, adding that most of the expenses are “likely unavoidable, as they relate to family and housing costs.”

Zane said that groceries have become a “silent tax” on the middle class, but pointed at rising utility costs as another big factor.

“Utility costs—often neglected in mainstream discussions—have become a household budget breaker. For families living in regions with harsh winters or sweltering summers, energy bills consume a more considerable monthly income than ever,” he said.

This is the case for Maria and Andrew in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, who asked that The Epoch Times not use their real names. The couple said utilities are a major expense for their middle-class household, regardless of the season.

“We don’t turn on the heat until we have consecutive days below 40 [Fahrenheit]. Same deal in summer, the air conditioning doesn’t go on until it’s into the 90s,” Maria said.

A window air conditioner unit on the side of an apartment building in Arlington, Va., on July 10, 2023. Energy bills consume a large portion of household monthly income, according to Zane. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

She said that her kids complain about the house “always being cold” in the winter because even when she turns on the heat, the thermostat stays at a brisk 66 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Even doing that, our bill is over $500 in the winter. It’s not quite as bad in summer since we try not to run the air much, but you have to have heat in the winter here. We get months of consistently below zero temperatures. Heat is not a luxury,” Maria said.

Maria and Andrew say they are excited when an electric bill is less than $200. Over the past three years, Maria said she’s watched utility bills go up, a common complaint among locals in her area.

Andrew said, “We hear things from officials like, ‘we need to upgrade this infrastructure’ from officials and then get a nightmare bill down the road.”

Sky high energy bills have undoubtedly created an additional debt burden for U.S. residents. Between December 2023 and August 2024, Americans’ utility debt rose 8 percent and topped out at almost $17.4 billion, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

In general, Americans have shouldered the burden of higher utility bills for the past couple of years with no end in sight.

When asked which expense reduction would make the most difference in their home, Andrew and Maria quickly said their weekly grocery bill.

“Since the pandemic, we’ve bought the same items in the same quantity and the same brands and watched our bill increase by 50 percent,” Maria said.

Andrew added, “Forget about eating out. That’s just for special occasions now.”

Many middle-class income earners have also cut back on what are now considered luxuries.

Kindness said, “My household scaled back on dining out and paused a couple of streaming subscriptions. These might seem like small adjustments, but they’re reflective of a larger pattern: people are prioritizing necessities and cutting what they view as luxuries.”

Lopez and her family have also restructured their financial priorities by trimming unnecessary spending.

“In the past year, we’ve consciously scaled back on non-essential expenses such as dining out, subscription services, and vacations to manage our finances. It’s sobering to note, but these once regular ‘luxuries’ are becoming increasingly occasional events,” she said.

People at Tatte Bakery & Cafe in Washington on Oct. 3, 2024. Reducing the frequency of dining out can help cut back on non-essential expenses to save money. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“This shift isn’t unique to my family; it’s an adjustment many middle-income earners are reluctantly making due to escalating costs and financial uncertainty.”

Zane said middle-class households aren’t just cancelling Netflix or skipping restaurant splurges. They’re making more profound sacrifices in order to save money or, in some cases, just to survive.

“Parents are delaying children’s extracurricular activities, skipping preventive health care, and cutting back on professional development to avoid additional expenses. These choices aren’t sustainable and reflect a troubling downward spiral in financial stability,” he said.

Zane’s point is highlighted by a recent Forbes Advisor survey, which revealed that one in every four Americans has less than $1,000 in emergency savings.

By respondent age group, this is the case for 32 percent of Generation Z, followed by 31 percent of Millennials, 27 percent of Generation X, and 20 percent of Baby Boomers.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/zf0VegC Tyler Durden

Unexpectedly Hawkish Beige Book Finds Economic Activity “Rose” In Most Districts As “Slowness” Tumbles

Unexpectedly Hawkish Beige Book Finds Economic Activity “Rose” In Most Districts As “Slowness” Tumbles

Back in September, the otherwise sleepy and mostly boring report that is the Fed’s Beige Book report (which nobody otherwise reads due to its sheer size and dismal signal-to-noise ratio) got a sudden boost of notoriety and popularity when none other than Jerome Powell explained after the Fed’s 50bps rate cut, that he had been closely following the Beige Book which had emerged as a driving force behind the Fed’s unexpected “jumbo” 50bps rate cut. And unlike others, we actually do read the Beige Book, which is why two weeks before the FOMC rate cut we titled our analysis of the latest report as follows: “Ugly Beige Book Reveals Economic Activity “Flat Or Declining”, Consumer Spending Slowing In Most Districts.” So one can see why Powell panicked and why two rate cuts followed in September and November, just days after the election.

Fast forward to today when moments ago the Fed published its latest, December, Beige Book which suggested that a reversal of the sluggish, “flat or declining” conditions observed in September and November is underway, and which together with a strong jobs report on Friday may be sufficient to enable the Fed to pause rate cuts for the foreseeable future, especially now that Donald Trump is in the White House.

According to the Fed’s latest report, economic activity “rose slightly in most Districts”, a clear improvement from the descriptions used in the previous months, and that “three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others.” Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across districts and prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve districts.

Reading further, we find yet another indication of the Trump effect, namely that although growth in economic activity was generally small (thank Biden), expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors (thanks Trump) and “business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months.”

Elsewhere, we find that consumer spending was “generally stable” although many consumer-oriented businesses across Districts noted further increases in price sensitivity among consumers, as well as several reports of increased sensitivity to quality. Among the negative aspects, spending on home furnishings was down, which contacts attributed to limited household mobility, while demand for mortgages was low overall, though reports on recent changes in home loan demand were mixed due to volatility in rates. Commercial real estate lending was similarly subdued. Still, contacts generally reported financing remained available.

Turning to capital spending and purchases of raw materials, these were flat or declining in most Districts while sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy.

Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat but demand for electricity generation continued to grow at a robust rate. The rise in electricity demand was driven by rapid expansions in data centers and was reportedly planned to be met by investments in renewable generation capacity in coming years.

Some more details from the Beige Book, starting with Labor Markets:

  • Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across Districts.
  • Hiring activity was subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount.
  • The level of layoffs was also reportedly low. Contacts indicated they expected employment to remain steady or rise slightly over the next year, but many were cautious in their optimism about any pickup in hiring activity.
  • Wage growth softened to a modest pace across most Districts, as did expectations for wage growth in coming months.
  • Job growth and wage growth for entry-level positions and skilled trades were an exception, rising robustly and expected to grow further through next year.

While Friday’s jobs report will have more to say about this, today’s ADP report which indicated a sharp bounce in wage growth suggests that the Fed is now working on stale wage data.

Turning to prices:

  • Prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve Districts.
  • Both consumer-oriented and business-oriented contacts reported greater difficulty passing costs on to customers.
  • Input prices were said to be rising faster than selling prices for most businesses, resulting in declining profit margins.
  • Although input prices rose generally, contacts in several Districts noted declines in certain raw materials and non-labor costs.
  • In contrast, rising insurance prices were again reported widely as significant costs pressures for many businesses.
  • Contacts indicated they expect the current pace of price growth to persist, but businesses in several Districts indicated tariffs pose a significant upside risk to inflation.

Here are the main highlights by Fed District

  • Boston: Economic activity was down a bit on balance. Prices increased at a slight pace. Employment held steady despite a slowdown in hiring demand. Consumers held back on restaurant spending. Warm, dry weather crimped demand for selected goods. Commercial real estate contacts perceived stabilization in the office sector. Expectations were mixed, marked by uncertainty among many contacts.
  • New York: On balance, regional economic activity expanded slightly, led by strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Employment in the region grew slightly, and wage growth remained moderate. Commercial real estate markets steadied after a period of weakness, with a pickup in demand in the New York City office market. Selling price increases remained modest.
  • Philadelphia: Business activity edged up in the current Beige Book period after falling slightly last period. Consumer spending was flat overall, but the broader nonmanufacturing sector edged up, and manufacturers reported modest growth. Employment, wages, and prices all rose modestly, but inflation expectations edged higher over concerns about potential tariffs. On average, firms expect moderate economic growth over the next six months.
  • Cleveland: District business activity grew modestly in recent weeks, and contacts expected activity to increase further in the months ahead. Demand for business services remained robust, and nonresidential construction activity increased modestly. Employment levels grew slightly. Overall, contacts indicated that wages, nonlabor input costs, and prices increased modestly.
  • Richmond: The regional economy grew slightly in recent weeks. Some negative impacts from Hurricane Helene and the port worker strike were reported by businesses in affected regions and segments of the economy. Employment was little changed this cycle, while wages grew moderately and price levels were little changed, leading to reports of profit margin compression for businesses.
  • Atlanta: Economic activity in the Sixth District grew. Employment was steady and wages grew slowly. Input costs and prices were little changed. Retail sales improved slightly. Tourism declined modestly. Demand for housing deteriorated. Transportation activity grew slightly. Loan growth was modest. Manufacturing fell, and energy activity grew modestly.
  • Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer and business spending rose modestly; employment was up slightly; construction and real estate activity was flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and manufacturing activity decreased modestly. Prices were up modestly, wages rose moderately, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2024 farm income were unchanged.
  • St. Louis: Economic activity across the Eighth District has slightly increased since our previous report. Prices increased moderately, with greater pushback against those price increases. Consumer spending has slightly declined across the income distribution. Contacts expected slight growth in employment, particularly coming from industrial production. The outlook has modestly improved; however, contacts noted that uncertainty about future policies was slowing investment, and businesses were increasing inventories in anticipation of potential import tariffs.
  • Minneapolis: District economic activity increased slightly. Employment grew, but labor demand softened, and turnover was down. Wage growth was moderate, and prices increased slightly. Consumer spending was flat, but tourism increased. Energy, commercial construction, and residential real estate also saw growth while manufacturing and homebuilding decreased.
  • Kansas City: Economic growth was modest and balanced across sectors. Expectations for demand growth were strong and supported plans to increase hiring and capital expenditures. Most contacts indicated they do not plan to raise wages substantially over the next year. Yet, the outlook for consumer spending remained strong, even as customers became more sensitive to prices and quality.
  • Dallas: Economic activity rose moderately over the reporting period. Growth continued in nonfinancial services and resumed in manufacturing and retail. Employment increased, and wage growth ticked up. Outlooks improved, with widespread increases in demand expectations. Interest rate cuts have had an overall positive but mild effect, and contacts were mostly bullish on prospective business conditions under the incoming administration, though some noted worry about potential trade and immigration policy changes.
  • San Francisco: Economic activity was stable. Employment levels were generally unchanged, and wages and prices increased slightly. Retail sales and activity in services sectors changed little. Activity in manufacturing, residential real estate, and financial services increased somewhat, while conditions in commercial real estate were stable. Conditions in agriculture softened slightly

And in keeping with the argument that the Dec Beige Book was much more hawkish than many expected, a quick semantic analysis finds that mentions of “slow” collapsed from 55 in October and an average of 56 in the past year to just 29, the lowest since the covid surge. Meanwhile, “inflation” remained sticky with 12 mentions, up 1 from last month and the highest since April

Bottom line: if the September Beige Book is what ultimately tipped the scales for the Fed to cut 50bps, then the December Beige Book is the first solid hint that a Fed pause may take place as soon as this month (which is perfectly understandable since Trump is now in the White House and the Fed will do everything in its power to make his life miserable).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 14:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ZPHjSGg Tyler Durden

French Government Falls As PM Barnier Loses Confidence Vote

French Government Falls As PM Barnier Loses Confidence Vote

What seemed like a foregone conclusion is now confirmed – French PM Barnier just lost a no-confidence vote (with 331 votes – 288 was needed) forcing his government’s resignation and Macron to appoint a new premier

The debate before the vote was lively with RN’s Le Pen blasting Barnier’s budget and making it clear he was dead in the water.

“It’s the end of this ephemeral government,” Le Pen declares.

Much of her comments are focused on taxes in Barnier’s budget, saying it was “all about taxes, taxes and more taxes.”

“Where’s all the money? The French want to know,” she said.

To those who think I’m intent on choosing a policy of disaster through a vote of no confidence, I want to tell them that the disastrous policy would be not to censure such a budget, such a government,” Le Pen says.

Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialists in parliament called Barnier’s budget “unjust and inefficient” and confirmed he would vote against Barnier.

France unbowed’s Coquerel slammed the government for not making enough compromises on the budget and confirms his party is supporting the no-confidence motion put forth by the leftist coalition.

The prime minister notes that the same issues will confront the next government if his is toppled, saying he would have “liked to have distributed money even though there isn’t any.”

“This won’t disappear with the magic of a no-confidence motion.”

What happens next?

  • First, Barnier would tender the resignation of the government; his outgoing cabinet would remain in place with limited powers to manage current affairs.

  • This caretaker administration continues until Macron appoints a new premier. There is no constitutional time limit for this decision — and it took Macron nearly two months to select Barnier.

  • During the interregnum, the government would likely rely on untested emergency legislation to collect taxes and deliver vital spending.

  • Once named, a new prime minister would propose a cabinet to be appointed by the president, and that new government would present a 2025 budget to parliament

Macron has a history of finding unexpected people to be prime minister – and of changing his mind at last minute.

Here are some names circulating in Paris that could become the next premier:

  • Bernard Cazeneuve, 61: Former French prime minister and interior minister under Socialist President Francois Hollande. Already considered as a possible PM this summer, picking him could help Macron fracture the left-wing bloc by capitalizing on Cazeneuve’s ties to his former party.

  • Sébastien Lecornu, 38: A skilled politician who in 2022 became the youngest defense minister since the French Revolution. He’s a Macron loyalist who’s originally from the center-right Republicans party.

  • François Bayrou, 73: The veteran centrist leads the MoDem party, a key ally for Macron in parliament. Currently the high commissioner for government planning, Bayrou supports proportional representation in parliamentary elections, which has also been a request of the National Rally.

  • Jean Castex, 59: A former prime minister under Macron known for his southern French accent and management skills. He is currently the head of the RATP, the state-owned company that operates the Paris metro.

On whether Macron should remain in office, Le Pen said that “it’s up to his conscience to decide whether he can sacrifice public action and the fate of France to his own pride.” She added:

“If he decides to stay, he will be forced to acknowledge that he is the President of a Republic that is no longer entirely at peace with itself.”

He can serve out his full term until 2027 and said only yesterday that this is exactly what he plans to do.

“I’ve been elected twice by the French people, and I’m extremely proud of that,” Macron said during a trip to Saudi Arabia.

“I’ll honor that trust with all my energy, right up to the last second.”

The euro was at the highs of the day ahead of the vote (which makes all the sense in the world to someone), but dropped on the inevitable result…

Spreads were near the lows of the day ahead of the vote, but started to creep higher as the debate neared the end. The bond markets closed before the vote…

Aberdeen Investments’ Alex Everett suggests that French 10-year yields would likely move toward 100 basis points over Germany, notably above current levels, citing “continued malaise, a dearth of decision making and insufficient progress toward debt sustainability.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/04/2024 – 14:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/sIfCj8H Tyler Durden