On Friday the Department of Commerce will report August retail sales, a material report which all else equal, may influence whether the Fed proceeds with its plans to unveil balance sheet tapering in its upcoming FOMC meeting. However, as we discussed last week, the report, together with virtually all other high frequency economic reports, will be materially distorted by the destructive aftermath of hurricane Harvey (Irma’s impact will be felt in the September retail report).

While Goldman recently showed the historical impact of hurricanes and other natural disasters on virtually every economic data series…

… of particular interest in the coming days will be the biggest driver behind the US economy, namely retail spending, and specifically whether the recent natural disasters led to a sharp – and potentially sustained – slump. According to internal Bank of America credit and debit card spending data released as usual just days ahead of the official government report, there does appears to be a substantial adverse impact. The question is how much of this is secular, and how much is a continuation of recent weakness in retail spending. Further complicating matters is a seasonal quirk, with the August spending report coming at the peak “back to school” spending period, coupled with the recent Amazon Prime Day which led to further distortions in retail spending patterns.

As BofA’s Michelle Meyer calculates, retail sales ex-autos, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit card data, declined 0.1% mom seasonally adjusted in August, leaving the 3-month moving average tracking flat for the month. Consumers shifted spending to gasoline stations, which were up strongly in the month, owing in part to Hurricane Harvey.

After controlling for the increase in gasoline spending, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline declined 0.4%: one of the sharpest declines YTD, and a confirmation of the continuing divergence between BofA (blue line) which has hugged the flatline in recent months, and official government data, which while week, has demonstrated modest Y/Y growth.

According to Bank of America, there are three key factors influencing the data this month:

1. Hurricane Harvey;
2. the pull-forward of retail spending into July by Amazon Prime Day; and
3. back-to-school shopping.

In an attempt to isolate the influence of Hurricane Harvey which made Texas landfall on August 25, BofA first examined daily spending in Texas which shows that spending picked up in the days heading into the hurricane but remained depressed through the event and in the days after, as one would expect.

Meyer explains:

We estimate that the net reduction of spending in Texas sliced 0.1-0.2pp from the monthly growth rate of total retail sales ex-autos in August. We then dug deeper and looked at the impact by the type of spend which reveals that necessary items (food and gasoline) increased in the month while more discretionary items declined (Chart 2). We also measured spending by major region in Texas (MSAs) which shows significant decline in Houston but continued growth in regions not hit by Harvey (Chart 3)

The charts below provide further evidence that Harvey caused a net drag to spending in the areas hit directly. In contrast, there was trend-like growth in MSAs in Texas which were not directly impacted by Harvey.

However, it wasn’t just Harvey explaining the sharp drop in ex-gasoline sales. In addition to the adverse reginal impact from Harvey, August retail sales were also likely held
back by the strong success of Amazon Prime-day in July. BofA data shows that Prime Day pulled forward activity from August into July.

Finally, and perhaps most concerning, the third indication that retail sales are set to disappoint, BofA writes that while it did not find much of a story for the back-to-school season, its proxy for back-to-school sales showed growth of just 2.4% yoy, down more than 50% the 5.4% yoy pace last year.

This is a problem because according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, families were projected to spend approximately $29.5bn on back-to-school items which would translate to an 8% yoy increase from the prior year’s spending plans. Unfortunately, those spending plans have not translated to actual spending as expectations have once again overshot spending patterns as they did in 2011 and 2012 but were below in 2013-2015.

Finally, broken down by category, BofA finds that on a % mom basis, consumer spending declined in most categories in August with only food and beverage, gasoline stations and cruise showing an increase. As noted above, spending on food and beverage and gasoline stations likely saw a boost due to Hurricane Harvey as households stocked up on essentials.

BofA’s Bottom line: the weakness in August retail sales, already expected to come in at near stall-speed levels, is likely exaggerated by the hurricane and July prime-day.

The good news is that while Hurricane Irma may depress spending in September, retail sales typically bounce back after a natural disaster, suggesting upside into 4Q. Unless, of course, it forces an even greater decline in spending, as the following charts showing the secular decline in retail sales indicate.

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While not entirely surprising given the demands from politicians, The Hill reports that The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday announced that it had launched an investigation into the Equifax breach that left sensitive information for 143 million Americans exposed to hackers.

“The FTC typically does not comment on ongoing investigations,” FTC spokesman Peter Kaplan said in an email.

 

“However, in light of the intense public interest and the potential impact of this matter, I can confirm that FTC staff is investigating the Equifax data breach.”

It is extremely rare for the agency to publicly confirm an investigation.

As The Hill notes, Congress has also been scrutinizing the credit reporting agency. Multiple committees have announced hearings on the breach and on Wednesday the House Commerce Committee invited Equifax CEO Richard Smith to testify before on the company’s handling of the crisis.

While many have focused on the chaos in the company’s stock price, we note that Equifax bonds have collapsed (with no dead cat bounce) to record lows (record high yields)…

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Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly/Daily

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is falling more than 10% today as at the time of writing, after getting rejected Tuesday at the point ETHUSD broke below prior upchannel support (on the daily chart).  Upchannel support breaks tend to be followed by at least one attempt to break higher back into the upchannel, which offer a high probability short setup as these reclaims of prior upchannel support are often fleeting as seen with Tuesday’s rejection.  Further downside may be limited today though as the steeply downsloping daily RSI and Stochastics are deeply oversold, and may soon find a bounce.  ETHUSD is also testing the 61.8% Fib retrace of the 2 month long upchannel, suggesting potential near-term support in the next day or so.  Any bounce off the 61.8% Fib will be increasingly regarded as a dead cat bounce, likely not lasting more than several days into mid next week given the longer term bearish implication of the weekly RSI and Stochastics turning lower from overbought levels, and the weekly MACD negatively crossing.

 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly/Daily

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is falling over 8% today as at the time of writing, after getting rejected Tuesday near the point BTCUSD broke below prior upchannel support (on the daily chart).  Upchannel support breaks (on daily charts) tend to be followed by at least one attempt over a span of days to break higher back into the upchannel.  These bounces tend to offer a high probability short setup as these reclaims of prior upchannel support are often fleeting as seen with Tuesday’s rejection.  Given the steeply downsloping daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD, there is still more downside pressure today, although with BTCUSD testing the 50% Fib retrace of the 2 month long upchannel, near-term support at this 50% Fib should not be ruled out for today or tomorrow.  Any bounce off the 50% Fib will be increasingly regarded as a dead cat bounce, and will likely be shortlived (not lasting more than several days into mid next week) given the longer term bearish implication of the fatigued weekly RSI and Stochastics turning lower from overbought levels, and weekly MACD poised to negatively cross.

 

 

Click here for today’s technical analysis on GBPAUD

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Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

With the market breaking out to all-time highs, the media has started to once again reach for their party hats as headlines suggest clear sailing for investors ahead.

After all, why not?  We have run one of the longest stretches in history without a 5%, much less a 10% decline. Threats of nuclear war, hurricanes, disaster, fires, earthquakes, and civil unrest have failed to unnerve investors. It seems all that has been missed was famine and pestilence.

Nonetheless, the breakout is indeed bullish, and signals the continuation of the bullish trend. However, such does not mean there are more than sufficient reasons to remain cautious. As noted on Tuesday, earnings growth remains weak outside of share buybacks, along with top line revenue. There is scant evidence of economic resurgence outside of a restocking cycle bounce, and inflationary pressures globally remain nascent. But such concerns, and I am not even sure the “4-horseman of the apocalypse” would make a difference, are “trumped,” by the ongoing global central bank interventions.

Not surprisingly, while it took individuals time to develop their “Pavlovian” response to the ringing of the “BTFD” bell, they have now fully complied as measured by the Investment Company Institute (ICI).

As shown in the chart above, as asset prices have escalated, so have individuals appetite to chase risk. The herding into equity ETF’s suggest that investors have simply thrown caution to the wind.

The same can be seen for the American Association of Individual Investors as shown below.

While the ICI chart above shows “net flows,” the AAII chart shows percentage allocated to stocks versus cash. With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007, it also suggests investors are now functionally “all in.” 

With net exposure to equity risk by individuals at historically high levels, it suggests two things:

1. There is little buying left from individuals to push markets marginally higher, and;
2. The stock/cash ratio, shown below, is at levels normally coincident with more important market peaks.

Here is the point, despite ongoing commentary about mountains of “cash on the sidelines,” this is far from the case. This leaves the current advance in the markets almost solely in the realm of Central Bank activity.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with that…until there is.

Which brings us to the ONE question everyone should be asking.

“If the markets are rising because of expectations of improving economic conditions and earnings, then why are Central Banks pumping liquidity like crazy?”

Despite the best of intentions, Central Bank interventions, while boosting asset prices may seem like a good idea in the short-term, in the long-term has had a negative impact on economic growth. As such, it leads to the repetitive cycle of monetary policy.

1. Using monetary policy to drag forward future consumption leaves a larger void in the future that must be continually refilled.
2. Monetary policy does not create self-sustaining economic growth and therefore requires ever larger amounts of monetary policy to maintain the same level of activity.
3. The filling of the “gap” between fundamentals and reality leads to consumer contraction and ultimately a recession as economic activity recedes.
4. Job losses rise, wealth effect diminishes and real wealth is destroyed. 
5. Middle class shrinks further.
6. Central banks act to provide more liquidity to offset recessionary drag and restart economic growth by dragging forward future consumption. 
7. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

If you don’t believe me, here is the evidence.

The stock market has returned more than 60% since 2007 peak, which is more than three times the growth in corporate sales growth and 30% more than GDP. The all-time highs in the stock market have been driven by the $4.5 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet, hundreds of billions in stock buybacks, PE expansion, and ZIRP.

In turn, this has driven the average valuation of stocks to the highest ratio in history.

Which, as noted, has been driven by a debt-driven binge of share repurchases to boost bottom line earnings.

What could possibly go wrong?

However, whenever there is a discussion of valuations, it is invariably stated that “low rates justify higher valuations.” 

Maybe. But the argument suggests rates are low BECAUSE the economy is healthy and operating near full capacity. However, the reality is quite different as the always insightful Dr. John Hussman pointed out this past week:

“Make no mistake: the main contributors to the illusion of permanent prosperity have been decidedly cyclical factors.

Again, when interest rates are low because growth is also low, no valuation premium is ‘justified’ at all. In the present environment, investors are inviting disastrous losses by paying the highest S&P 500 price/revenue ratio in history (outside of the single week of the 2000 market high) and the highest median price/revenue ratio in history across S&P 500 component stocks (more than 50% beyond the 2000 peak, because extreme valuations in that episode were focused on much narrower subset of stocks than at present). Glorious past returns and record valuations are a Potemkin Village with a barren field behind it.”

There are virtually no measures of valuation which suggest making investments today, and holding them for the next 20-30 years, will work to any great degree.

That is just the math.

Which brings me to something Michael Sincere’s once penned:

“At market tops, it is common to see what I call the ‘high-five effect’ — that is, investors giving high-fives to each other because they are making so much paper money. It is happening now. I am also suspicious when amateurs come out of the woodwork to insult other investors.”

Michael’s point is very apropos, particularly today. It is interesting that prior to the election the majority of analysts, media and investors were “certain” the market would crash if Trump was elected. Since the election, it’s “high-fives and pats on the back.” 

While nothing has changed, the confidence of individuals and investors has surged. Of course, as the markets continue their relentless rise, investors begin to feel “bullet proof” as investment success breeds over-confidence.

The reality is that strongly rising asset prices, particularly when driven by emotional exuberance, “hides” investment mistakes in the short term. Poor, or deteriorating, fundamentals, excessive valuations and/or rising credit risk is often ignored as prices increase. Unfortunately, it is only after the damage is done that the realization of those “risks” occurs.

As Michael stated:

“Most investors believe the Fed will protect their investments from any and all harm, but that cannot go on forever. When the Fed attempts to extricate itself from the market one day, that is when the music stops, and the blame game begins.”

In the end, it is crucially important to understand that markets run in full cycles (up and down). While the bullish “up” cycle lasts twice as long as the bearish “down” cycle, the damage to investors is not a result of lagging markets as they rise, but in capturing the inevitable reversion. This is something I discussed in “Bulls And Bears Are Both Broken Clocks:”

“In the end, it does not matter IF you are ‘bullish’ or ‘bearish.’  The reality is that both ‘bulls’ and ‘bears’ are owned by the ‘broken clock’ syndrome during the full-market cycle. However, what is grossly important in achieving long-term investment success is not necessarily being ‘right’ during the first half of the cycle, but by not being ‘wrong’ during the second half.”

The markets are indeed in a liquidity-driven up cycle currently. With margin debt near peaks, stock prices in a near vertical rise and “junk bond yields” near record lows, the bullish media continues to suggest there is no reason for concern.

The support of liquidity is being extracted by the Federal Reserve as they simultaneously tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates. Those combined actions, combined with excessive exuberance and risk taking, have NEVER been good for investors over the long term.

At market peaks – “everyone’s in the pool.”

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We knew it was coming. An Arab League showdown on Tuesday turned into a shouting match involving allies turned bitter enemies Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates.

Currently Qatar is being boycotted by four other Arab states and the once strong Gulf Cooperation Council alliance (GCC) is in shambles. Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad al-Muraikhi immediately raised the boycott in his opening remarks though the dispute was supposed to be carefully avoided and wasn't on the agenda. He called Qatar's gulf enemies, especially Saudi Arabia, “rabid dogs”.

“Even the animals were not spared, you sent them out savagely,” Muraikhi said, referring to the fact that camels of Qatari farmers in Saudi Arabia were left to roam and die in the open desert along the border area between the two countries. The Emirati foreign minister countered, "Fifty-nine terrorists are residing and settled in Qatar or have ties to Qatar. A large number of them are named as terrorists by the Americans and another group are labelled terrorists by the European Union and a third group are labelled as terrorists by the United Nations. And yet another group are on the terror list of Arab countries."

"No! When I speak you be quiet!" 

"No. When I speak you be quiet."

Things got heated between Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE at this week's Arab League meeting. http://pic.twitter.com/C4Lc8VwvdE

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 13, 2017

And Egypt joined the anti-Qatar pile on when it's foreign minister asserted, "We all know Qatar’s historic support for terrorism and what has been provided for extremist factions, and money in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Egypt that have lead to the death of many of Egypt’s sons."

Qatar has remained defiant throughout its unprecedented summer diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia and other GCC states which have brought immense pressure to bear on the tiny gas and oil rich monarchy through a complete economic and diplomatic blockade imposed by its neighbors. On June 5 Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt cut ties with Qatar in a dramatic move that resulted in a nearly complete boycott of the small country which encompassed air, land, and sea. Even commercial airline flight paths were diverted mid-air at the time, causing multiple major regional carriers to cancel future flights to Doha's Hamad International Airport. Aggressive economic sanctions followed, including food blockages – most of which had previously been supplied by land via Saudi Arabia.

While energy-rich Qatar has the highest per capita income in the world, its residents have faced a summer of empty supermarkets and long lines to get basic staples. Reports of extreme and creative ways Qataris have attempted to get around the blockade include an ongoing plan to fly thousands of dairy cows on Qatar Airways jets into the country.

In late August Qatar even went so far as to announce the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran in a counter-move that was arguably its greatest act of defiance yet. The constant refrain of Qatar's former GCC allies is that Qatar has grown too close to Iran while sponsoring and funding terrorism. For the Sunni gulf states "funding terrorism" is really an empty euphemism meaning links to Iran and minority Shia movements on the Arab side of the gulf. Ironically, there is ample evidence demonstrating that both sides of the current gulf schism have in truth funded terror groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, especially in Syria. 

For now the world can just sit back and watch as the dirty laundry is aired and the GCC implodes after years of nearly all the gulf monarchies funding jihadist movements in places like Syria, Iraq, and Libya – as well as a scorched earth bombing campaign against impoverished Yemen.

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Complex systems are all around us.

By one definition, a complex system is any system that features a large number of interacting components (agents, processes, etc.) whose aggregate activity is nonlinear (not derivable from the summations of the activity of individual components) and typically exhibits hierarchical self-organization under selective pressures.

In today’s infographic from Meraglim we use accumulating snow and an impending avalanche as an example of a complex system – but really, such systems can be found everywhere. Weather is another complex system, and ebb and flow of populations is another example.

 

MARKETS ARE COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Just like in the avalanche example, where various factors at the top of a mountain (accumulating volumes of snow, weather, temperature, geology, gravity, etc.) make up a complex system that is difficult to predict, Visual Capitalists' Jeff Desjardins notes that markets are similarly complex.

In fact, markets meet all the properties of complex systems, as outlined by scientists:

1. Diverse
System actors have different points of view. (i.e. bullish, bearish, long, short, leveraged, non-leveraged, etc.)

2. Connected
Capital markets are over-connected, and information spreads fast. (i.e. chat rooms, phone calls, emails, Thomson Reuters, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, trading systems, order entry systems, etc.)

3. Interaction
Trillions of dollars of securities are exchanged in transactions every day (i.e. stocks, bonds, currencies, derivatives, etc.)

4. Adaptive Behavior
Actors change their behavior based on the signals they are getting (i.e. making or losing money, etc.)

And like the avalanche example, where a single snowflake can trigger a much bigger event, there are increasing signs that the complexity behind the stock market has also reached a critical state.

MARKETS IN A CRITICAL STATE

Here are just some examples that show how the market has entered into an increasingly critical state:

Record-Low Volatility
The VIX, an index that aims to measure the volatility of the market, hit all-time lows this summer.

Bull Market Length
Meanwhile, the current bull market (2009-present) is the second-longest bull market in modern history at 3,109 days. The only bull market that was longer went from the 1987 crash to the Dot-com bust.

Valuations at Highs
Stock valuations, based on Robert Schiller’s CAPE ratio (which looks at cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings), are approaching all-time highs as well. Right now, it sits 83.3% higher than the historical mean of 16.8. It was only higher in 1929 and 2000, right before big crashes occurred.

Market Goes Up
Investor overconfidence leads investors to believe the market only goes up, and never goes down. Indeed, in this bull market, markets have gone up 67 of the months (an average gain of 3.3%), and have gone down only 34 months (average drop of -2.6%).

Here are some additional signs of systemic risk that make complex markets less stable:

• A densely connected network of bank obligations and liabilities
• Over $70 trillion in debt added since Financial Crisis
• Over $1 quadrillion in notional value of derivatives
• Non-bank shadow finance through hedge funds and securitization make risk impossible to measure
• Increased leverage of banks in some markets
• Greater concentration of financial assets in fewer companies

In other words, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about “snow” accumulation – and any such “snowflake” could trigger the avalanche.

In complex dynamic systems that reach the critical state, the most catastrophic event that can occur is an exponential function of scale. This means that if you double the system, you do not double the risk; you increase it by a factor of five or 10

– Jim Rickards, author of Road to Ruin

THE NEXT SNOWFLAKE

What could trigger the next avalanche? It could be anything, including the failure of a major bank, a natural disaster, war, a cyber-financial attack, or any other significant event.

Such “snowflakes” come around every few years:

1987: Black Monday
The Dow fell 508 points (-22.6%) in one day.

1994-95: The Mexican peso crisis
Systemic collapse narrowly avoided when the U.S. government bailed out Mexico using the controversial $20 billion “Exchange Stabilization Fund”.

1997: Asian financial crisis
East Asian currencies fell in value by as much as -38%, and international stocks by as much as -60%.

1998: Long Term Capital Management 
Hedge fund LTCM was in extreme distress, and within hours of shutting down every market in the world.

2000: The Dotcom crash
Nasdaq fell -78% in 30 months after early Dotcom companies crashed and burned.

2008: Lehman Brothers bankruptcy
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan were days away from same fate until government stepped in.

SHELTER FROM THE AVALANCHE

The Fed and mainstream economists use equilibrium theory, regressions, and correlations to quantify the markets. And while they pay lip-service to black swans, they don’t have a good way of forecasting them or predicting them.

Markets are complex – and only complexity theory and predictive analytics can help to shed light on their next move.

Alternatively, investors can seek shelter from the storm by investing in assets that cannot be digitally frozen (bank accounts, brokerage accounts, etc.) or have their value inflated away (cash, fixed-income). Such assets include land, precious metals, fine art, and private equity.

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Two of 2017’s major investing themes thus far are the return of Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the prolonged weakness in the U.S. Dollar (CURRENCY:USD).

Year-to-date, Gold is up 15.72% while the U.S. Dollar is down 9.57%.  This follows a multi-year decline in Gold and a multi-year rise in the Dollar.

The question now is whether or not we will see a meaningful trend change in this relationship. To help answer that question, let’s take a look at the Gold / U.S. Dollar ratio chart.  When the trend is rising, gold tends to outperform… and when the trend is in a decline, gold is typically under pressure.

In the chart below, the trend is clearly rising (which has been positive for Gold).  However, you’ll also notice to factors that appear to be headwinds for gold going forward:  (1)  The rising trend is at a confluence of price resistance points. As well, it is testing the top of its 3-year trading range.  (2)  At the same time that the Gold/Dollar ratio is hitting price resistance, it is also seeing momentum hit levels last seen near the 2011 highs.

The Takeaway is…. This article was first written for See It Market. To see the takeaway, rest of article, Chart and important inflection point for the Gold/US Dollar ratio- See post HERE 

 

 

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For the first time since August 10th, WTI crude is trading back above $50 (following the biggest crude inventory build in 6 months and a rebound in production last week).

The gains seem driven by refinery restarts and increased IEA/OPEC demand forecasts, and improved OPEC production cut compliance. This move also follows China’s lowest crude output since 2009 (amid dismal economic data).

The good news (for now) is that RBOB prices are continuing to slide as refiners and pipelines come back on line after Harvey.

WTI also broke above a key technical level…

“It seems like it’s driven by WTI, with prices above their 200-day moving average,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo says of price increase

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