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Why Another Oil Price Downturn Is A Distinct Possibility

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

In June 2015, oil prices surged to $60 per barrel, raising hopes that the oil price downturn would have been brief and the recovery swift. But by July, oil prices were heading back down, the beginning of a deeper slump that would continue for months.

A year later, a similar pattern could be playing out, or at least, that is what oil producers are fearing. After hitting a low point in February of this year, oil prices began a four-month rally, rising from $26 to $51 per barrel by June, the third year in a row in which the month of June saw a relative peak for oil prices. Now, July could once again mark a renewed nose-dive.

This time around, an array of oil producers are not taking any chances. According to Bloomberg, more and more E&Ps are hedging their production, protecting themselves against a crash in prices. Earlier this month, Laredo Petroleum Inc., for instance, hedged more than 2 million barrels of its 2017 production. “The producers have sold the hell out of this rally,” Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., told Bloomberg. “The companies that did survive, they’ve been hedging into this rally. And they’re counting their blessings.”

Hedging even began before prices rallied. Reuters surveyed shale firms earlier this month, finding that 17 out of 30 had increased their hedging in the first quarter when oil prices were at a low point. Even though they locked in at low prices, doing so offered some stability and certainty in their revenue projections.

But it was also an indication of the level of anxiety with which E&Ps were approaching 2016. The rally since February has buoyed spirits, but with oil prices back to $45 per barrel, negative sentiment once again pervades the market. For the week ending on July 12, oil traders increased their short bets by 1.6 percent, the third week in a row that shorts climbed.

The logic is straightforward. Production is falling but global supplies are still elevated. Worse, inventories are only coming down slowly from record highs. Then there is the possibility of new drilling – the rig count rose again last week, with the industry adding 6 oil rigs and 1 natural gas rig, according to Baker Hughes. On the other hand, although drillers could get back to work, the markets are likely overestimating the impact of a few dozen rigs coming back into operation.

Meanwhile, the botched coup attempt in Turkey barely registered in oil. Supply disruptions through the Bosporus, where 3 percent of global crude travels, were certainly plausible, but the straits were reopened only hours after the overthrow failed. "The market is looking past the coup," Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Sydney's CMC Markets, told Reuters.

At this point, the very large overhang of refined products weighing on the market is one of the most important indicators to watch, a glut that will take time to work through. The rapid buildup in storage levels of gasoline and diesel this year have taken the markets by surprise, and could ultimately delay what everyone thought would be a rebalance in the next few months.

"The rising inventories of gasoline have got the markets’ attention,” John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “The oil market is getting ready to break.”

The one bullish factor for oil prices is India, which has taken over from China as the main driver of demand growth. India just grew at its fastest three-month period in the past decade, the most recent data shows. "We think India is roaring right now and will be a key driver of demand," Helima Croft, managing director and Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Futures Now” in a recent interview. Despite all the negative factors pointing to ongoing oversupply, RBC still thinks that crude prices could close out the year in the mid$50s per barrel, largely because of India.

But another downturn in prices is also a distinct possibility, and one that looks a bit more likely than it did a month ago. At the very least, it will take quite a bit of time before a serious price rally arrives. "Fundamental headwinds are growing, supply-demand rebalancing is likely still a mid-2017 event, but tail risks are admittedly large in both directions, as geopolitics add to uncertainty," Morgan Stanley concluded in a recent report.

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Free Speech Win: N.C. State Revises Speech Policy in Response to Legal Challenge

North Carolina State University officials have changed the university’s speech policy that previously forced student groups to get a permit from the school to pass out pamphlets, according to The News & Observer.

A student group called Grace Christian Life filed a federal lawsuit in April, arguing it was unfair for the university to require members to get permission before to handing out information about their organization. According to court documents, university staff told club representatives they were not allowed to engage with students without prior approval under N.C. State’s Speech Permit Policy, a guideline issued in 1993.

The group maintained this policy was not only unconstitutional but also being unequally applied. The lawsuit noted that numerous student groups engaged in similar activities without receiving university permission.

The school eventually agreed to drop the policy. Students will no longer be required to reserve space if they are conducting “non-commercial solicitation.” In other words, as long as a group is not selling a product, it can hand out information without approval from the administration.

The suit was settled as a result of these changes.

Attorneys with Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), a conservative nonprofit law firm, represented Grace Christian Life. “Students of any religious, political, or ideological persuasion should be able to freely and peacefully speak with their fellow students about their views without interference from university officials who may prefer one view over another,” Tyson Langhofer, senior counsel for ADF, said in a statement. “NC State did the right thing in revising its policy to reflect this instead of continuing to defend its previous policy, which was not constitutionally defensible.”

Under the agreement, the university has to pay more than $70,000 to cover the student group’s legal expenses. But in a statement, N.C. State Chancellor Randy Woodson noted that court costs would likely be much higher if the school opted to take the case to trial. Still, he denied that the university was guilty of abridging students’ rights:

To be clear, NC State has never required students to get permits to engage and talk to other students – regardless of the subject matter…Individuals and groups have always been free to engage others in conversations about their faith on campus.

This is not the first time N.C. State has found itself in a battle over free speech. As Stephanie Keaveney mentioned in a piece for the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy, administrators last year encouraged students to paint over messages on the campus’s “free expression tunnel” that they believed contained offensive language.

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Wall Street Is Confused By Elon Musk’s Master Plan – “Credibility Is Challenged… How Do They Fund It?”

After a much anticipated and dramatic buildup, late last night Elon Musk revealed the details of his “Master Plan, Part Deux”, which as Musk himself summarized is as follows:

  • Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
  • Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
  • Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
  • Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it

As we said at the time, “It’s one of those thing you read twice, three times, and then look at those around you to see if you somehow missed the deep message.” Judging by the litany of responses by the sell-side this morning, we weren’t the only ones confused. As the following reactions from Wall Street analysts, the confusion was far-ranging.

Here are some examples.

From DB’s Rod Lache:

Elon Musk released Part 2 of his “Master Plan” for Tesla. At a high level the document is aimed at explaining how (Tesla’s) actions fit into a “larger picture” of accelerating the advent of sustainable energy. The document is relatively short on details, and it does not contain any economic or financial objectives (these will be needed eventually, as capital markets will be called upon to provide a key “material” for the execution of this plan).

 

1. Creating an integrated solar energy and battery storage product;

 

2. Expanding the “Tesla Motors” consumer products that we know (Model S, X, 3) with the addition of a compact SUV and a “new kind of pickup truck”; expanding into commercial vehicles such as a Tesla Bus and a Heavy Duty Truck (products that we believe could benefit tremendously from Electrification and Automation); and at the same time achieving revolutionary improvements in manufacturing;

 

3. Developing, validating, and achieving regulatory approval for Fully Autonomous Vehicles (which Elon hints could take several years); and

 

4. Once Autonomous Vehicles are available, applying them in innovative ways such as creating a Tesla Owned Autonomous Ride Sharing fleet for dense urban centers, and also enabling Tesla owners to add their cars to Autonomous fleets (so that they can generate income when they are not in private use; the practical effect would be an incredibly low cost of capital for these vehicles, as owners may only be looking to reduce the fixed cost of ownership; in addition, this could also upend the entire framework we’ve been using for estimating the potential growth of shared mobility, leading to a far larger market).

 

At a high level none of [the] objectives are surprising. Parts of these plans have all been floated in the past. And while it goes without saying that all aspects of the plan involve very high levels of execution risk, we continue to find the “Tesla Motors” plans, which are encompassed in Parts 2, 3, and 4, as innovative and potentially compelling. We continue to work on better appreciating whether Solar is in fact a “good” business for Tesla shareholders (To be clear, we are not yet convinced of this: The business has, and will continue to consume significant amounts of capital; The NPVs ascribed to SCTY’s projects are highly dependent on government incentives and they are presented using relatively low discount rates; Valuation metrics used by TSLA investors appear to be quite different than those used by SCTY investors). We also note that parts 2-4 are likely to drive the overwhelming majority of value creation and valuation for Tesla’s Enterprise.

From Goldman’s Patrick Archimbault:

Energy Storage: The company reiterated that a well-integrated solar roof with battery product continues to be a goal for the company, supporting the proposed merger between Tesla and SolarCity. Our work suggests the lifetime cost of solar + storage will remain above grid prices until storage costs fall dramatically or changes to policy accelerate a change.

 

New vehicle lines: TSLA plans to introduce a compact SUV and a pickup truck for consumers as well as a heavy-duty commercial vehicle and a high passenger-density bus for urban areas. Interestingly, its plans did not include a lower priced version of its upcoming Model 3 sedan. Vehicle autonomy development importance stressed. This follows recent NHTSA statements following that “no one incident will derail” development of a safety enhancing technology.

 

Car/ride sharing: TSLA also announced the ability for vehicle owners to turn their cars into an income generating asset during the 90% to 95% of the day they sit idle, as well as its intention to provide its own ride-sharing fleet. A key enabler for both is the approval of true self-driving technology.

 

Implications

 

Some areas of the plan were widely anticipated such as reinforcing the company’s earlier stated goal of sustainable transportation and outlining a new shared mobility plan, which makes sense to us given the extent to  which shared mobility can increase accessibility to AV and EV technologies. Tesla’s product ambitions, which include pickups, SUVs, buses and commercial vehicles, were broader than we expected.

Morgan Stanley’s note was aptly named: “Now That They’ve Said It, How Do They Fund It?“

Elon Musk has re-affirmed the importance for Tesla of owning a solar company while attaching itself to new multi-trillion-dollar addressable markets in shared and autonomous transportation. Will the market’s faith match the strategic ambition?

 

What we learned:

 

Tesla’s CEO emphasized that solar energy was always part of the original plan and re-affirmed the SCTY deal logic. At the same time, Elon Musk announced a variety of new vehicle segments (small SUV, pickup truck, buses and semi trucks) and entirely new business models for transportation (shared autonomous buses and cars).

 

Investment Significance:

 

In our view, the Master Plan Part Deux serves 2 major purposes: (1) To address investor concerns over governance in the wake of the SCTY announcement by impressing the logic of the combination. And (2), to attach the auto business to as many multi-trillion-dollar addressable markets as possible. We have been writing about the need for all automotive companies, including Tesla, to change how they view the addressable market to include the ‘bundled mile’ (10 trillion miles per year or 1.7 Light Years) and the roughly 600 billion hours of time spent by humanity in automobiles (equal to 68 million years annually). As we have written throughout our research pieces, including our April 19 Blue Paper: Global Investment Implications of Auto 2.0, we estimate the global miles market to be as large as $10 trillion and the global automotive value of time (both driver and passenger time) at potentially several trillion dollars including the potential to sell content and monetize data.

 

In addition to being an automaker, Tesla is a crowd-funded R&D innovation effort focused on transforming two of the world’s largest markets: Energy and Transportation. Given the company’s rate of cash consumption, to put this innovation into action, Tesla must fund the plan with large amounts of external capital. Tesla management have demonstrated a strong ability to convince investors of the validity and scope of its business and technological ambition. The expansion of business scope announced last night is very significant, likely requiring substantial deployment of capital and potentially many years of  upfront losses to see to fruition.

 

Developing an all-new product line such as a small SUV or pickup truck can conceivably require more than $1bn of investment each. Development of an allnew heavy commercial vehicle (Tesla Semi) and the related infrastructure could run into the billions of dollars. Developing and launching a small bus public transport network could potentially require significantly more investment. Absorbing the losses at SCTY while funding its further expansion could likely add a further investment burden on top of all that. These are big markets and we understand they require large capital investments, time and execution risk to address. Are public investors prepared to continue to extend capital on the same terms they have done over the past 6 years? Do investors get excited over the potential to disrupt a broader scope of multi-trillion-dollar markets? Or is there a point where the cost of capital could bend somewhat under the weight of the company’s market ambitions?

Finally, UBS’s Colin Langan with the most scathing take yet:

Secret Master Plan Part 2 has few surprises

 

Last night, TLSA outlined its long term strategy: tackle solar/storage, mass/commercial transport, fully autonomous tech, and car-sharing. With expectations around TSLA’s future already high, we question if this new plan will surprise most investors. The integrated solar-storage was known post the SCTY deal, more models were expected, and autonomous/shared vehicles are a likely part of many OEM’s plans. Tesla previously alluded to improving factory. TSLA now specified that it sees a 5-10 fold increase by version 3 in 2 years; however details remain light on how this will be different from traditional OEMs and credibility is challenged given near term production issues.

 

Lacks new color on solar storage combo

 

Given investor caution around the SCTY deal (stock traded down ~10% on the news), we are surprised by the lack of new details on the solar/storage combo. It is unclear why a JV wouldn’t enable the same opportunity. We see the merger as an unneeded distraction adding complexity to TSLA, which already has too much on its plate with near term production issues, the coming Model 3 launch, and aggressive production targets (see Driving off into the Sunset). Also, in our prior note Merger Puts Battery Storage Front and Center, we highlighted our view that storage is not economic for most residential customers due to net metering.

 

Heavy truck a surprise; autonomous/shared cars expected

 

TSLA announced that a new compact SUV and new kind of pickup are coming. These mass market models were widely expected; however, we are surprised by the announcement of an eventual heavy duty truck (TSLA Semi) and bus. TSLA did not provide a timeline for these new vehicles, but we question if it can handle the added complexity of varying platforms when it is currently having issues with only 2 models. Moreover, a heavy truck application may be challenged by range (imagine the battery needed to make a cross-country trip). TSLA’s focus on self-driving (10x safer than human) and shared cars is not surprising or unique to TSLA. For example, GM bought Cruise Automation and invested in Lyft with these future trends in mobility in mind

In short: Elon Musk just admitted that his company will need lots and lots of additional capital in the coming years, and as MS politely puts it: “Do investors get excited over the potential to disrupt a broader scope of multi-trillion-dollar markets? Or is there a point where the cost of capital could bend somewhat under the weight of the company’s market ambitions?” which said otherwise, means will investors keep handing over their cash to Musk to fund what is an unprecedented hype machine, and one which is years, if not decades away from profitability, and where the cash burn seems to get bigger with every passing year.

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Blame the Police Unions for the Anti-Police Backlash: New at Reason

In the last two weeks, the country has been engulfed in a horrific cycle of violence with police officers shooting innocent black men in Louisiana and Minnesota and black men shooting Police Gearinnocent police officers in Dallas and Louisiana.

President Obama blames this spiral on everything under the sun from excessive guns to underinvestment in minority schools. Donald Trump, a master of tautology, blames it on the breakdown of “law and order” in inner cities.

Both are evading one of the main causes: “Hidebound police unions that that block elementary transparency and public accountability at every level,” says Reason Foundation Senior Analyst Shikha Dalmia.

View this article.

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Brazil Arrests Members Of Group Plotting Terrorist Acts Ahead Of Olympics

Perhaps taking a cue from recent events in Turkey, moments ago Reuters reported that Brazil’s federal police began an anti-terrorism operation early Thursday, just over two weeks before the Olympics start in Rio de Janeiro, a justice ministry source told Reuters.

The source said that federal police had arrested members of a group that was preparing acts of terrorism. It was unclear where the operation was taking place or what the specifics of the operation were.

Curiously this takes place just day after the NYT reported that a delegation of U.S. activists from the Black Lives Matter movement, who were on a 4 day visit to Rio, warned that the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games could prove deadly for the city’s poor black people. The American activists were on a four-day visit to Rio aimed at highlighting the risks posed by the giant Olympic security apparatus in a country where a United Nations report has concluded law enforcement officers are responsible for a “significant portion” of the nearly 60,000 annual violent deaths.

During the Aug. 5-21 games, some 85,000 soldiers and police will be on patrol in a bid to secure this notoriously dangerous city for the 10,000 athletes and the 350,000 to 500,000 foreigner spectators expected to flood in for the games. That’s roughly twice the security contingent at the 2012 Summer Games in London.

 

But while the mammoth security apparatus may help insulate foreign visitors from the armed muggings, carjackings and drug gang shootouts that are a regular part of life in Rio, the U.S. activists and their local counterparts warned that the increased police presence could result in a spike in police killings.

 

“We are learning about Olympic construction costs, and dirty water and Zika and crime, but I want the world to know about the horror that is the police killing citizens as part of Olympic preparations,” said Elizabeth Martin, a Massachusetts woman whose nephew Joseph was shot to death in 2007 by an off-duty police officer while celebrating his 30th birthday in Rio.

“It’s important that we stand with each other because we know this violence is connected,” said Daunasia Yancey, a Black Lives Matter activist from Boston. “Anti-black violence is global and our resistance is global.”

Perhaps the two events are related, or perhaps Brazil is merely already setting the stage for having a convenient scapegoat if the olympics, for which the country is woefully unprepared, end which in a worst case scenario, may even result in casualties.

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Ted Cruz Responds To Angry Trump Supporters: “I Won’t Be A Servile Puppy”

In his first statement since unleashing the fury of Trump supporters at the RNC, Ted Cruz on Thursday morning defended distancing himself from Donald Trump, saying he won’t vote for Trump “like a service pully dog”, adding that he is not voting for Clinton, while ripping the Republican National Convention’s response to his speech the night before.

Speaking to Texas’s delegation at the convention at a Thursday breakfast, Cruz said his pledge to support the GOP’s eventual nominee was “abrogated” when the campaign between Trump and him became personal.  “I am not in the habit of supporting people who attack my wife and attack my father,” he said. “Neither he nor his campaign has taken back a word of what they said about my family,” Cruz added, his voice rising.

He then told the Texas delegation that “this isn’t just a team sport. … This is about standing for what we believe in.” Judging by the media response, many disagree. “In that speech last night, I did not say a single negative word about Donald Trump. And I’ll tell you, this morning and going forward I don’t intend to say negative things about Donald Trump.”

He also had nothing positive to say.

Cruz made clear he would not vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton for president, but notably did not say he would vote for Trump, either. He said he would listen closely to Trump’s convention speech later Thursday.  

But he saved the bulk of his anger for the broader response, slamming the convention’s jeering response to his speech the night before. “What I wanted to do last night was lay out the principles I believe we should stand for as Republicans,” he said.”

I have to say, it was somewhat dismaying, that apparently some of Donald’s biggest partisans, right down front, when they heard that people should vote for someone you can trust to defend our freedom and defend our conscious, defend the Constitution, immediately they began booing. I got to say that’s a little bit troubling.”

Cruz got a standing ovation as he entered the room, but also faced jeers and shouting from his home-state delegation. Some chanted Trump’s name and yelled that Cruz should get behind the GOP’s presidential nominee.

Some of those present had more questions for Cruz:

“The party has spoken,” one guest shouted. 

“Do you realize that you can unite this party like no one in this party, even more then our candidate?” another said. 

“I will have to confess, what you said would be easy to do,” Cruz replied. “Whether you want me to or not, I am not going to lie to you.”

One Texas delegate asked Cruz whether supporters should write his name in on his general election ballot. The suggestion was met with overwhelming groans and shouts of “no,” and Cruz swatted away the suggestion. 

“I am not encouraging anyone to write my name in, that is not something I would suggest. I am not a candidate in this race,” he said.  “I respect the will of the people.”

But most curious is what we noted earlier, namely that the Trump campaign was well aware of what Cruz would say: the Texan revealed that he had shared his speech with the Trump campaign well before he delivered it and had warned Trump days ago that he wouldn’t endorse. 

“They knew exactly what I was going to say…they believed it would help,” he said. “If they didn’t, I was perfectly happy to get on a plane and go home.”

It would appear that the dramatic reaction to Cruz’ speech is precisely what Trump was going for.

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Existing Home Prices Hit Record High As Sales Growth Slowest In 4 Months

Despite a better than expected 1.1% MoM rise in June (thanks to notable downward revisions), existing home sales growth is the slowest since February. Of course, NAR’s Larry Yun gloated of “sustained job growth” driving an “impressive streak of sales gains,” although he cautions ” it’s unclear if this current sales pace can further accelerate.” Median home prices soared to new record highs driven by soaring demand for condo/co-ops (+3.2% vs just 0.8% for single-family homes).

At 5.57m SAAR, this is the highest existing home sales since Feb 2007… but growth is fading once again…

 

The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $247,700, up 4.8 percent from June 2015 ($236,300). June’s price increase marks the 52nd consecutive month of year-over-year gains and surpasses May’s peak median sales price of $238,900.

Total housing inventory at the end of June dipped 0.9 percent to 2.12 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 5.8 percent lower than a year ago (2.25 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.7 months in May.

The share of first-time buyers was 33 percent in June, which is up from 30 percent in May and a year ago and is the highest since July 2012 (34 percent). Through the first six months of the year, first-time buyers have represented an average of 31 percent of buyers; they were 30 percent in all of 2015.

All-cash sales were 22 percent of transactions in June, unchanged from both May and a year ago. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 11 percent of homes in June (lowest since July 2009 at 9 percent), down from 13 percent in May and 12 percent a year ago. Sixty-four percent of investors paid cash in June.

And the breakdown shows Rental Nation demands surging…

Single-family home sales increased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million in June from 4.88 million in May, and are now 3.1 percent higher than the 4.77 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $249,800 in June, up 5.0 percent from June 2015.

 

Existing condominium and co-op sales grew 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 units in June from 630,000 in May, and are now 1.6 percent above June 2015 (640,000 units). The median existing condo price was $231,600 in June, which is 3.2 percent above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the impressive four month streak of sales gains through June caps off a solid first half of 2016 for the housing market.

“Existing sales rose again last month as more traditional buyers and fewer investors were able to close on a home despite many competitive areas with unrelenting supply and demand imbalances,” he said. “Sustained job growth as well as this year’s descent in mortgage rates is undoubtedly driving the appetite for home purchases.”

However, Yun has some reservations…

“Looking ahead, it’s unclear if this current sales pace can further accelerate as record high stock prices, near-record low mortgage rates and solid job gains face off against a dearth of homes available for sale and lofty home prices that keep advancing.”

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So… the Entire Rally Was Based on a Lie?

The Bank of Japan admitted back in June helicopter money is not on the agenda. Amazingly this is news today after the market has rallied hard based on hope that helicopter money is about to be unveiled.

The yen pared an advance against the dollar as it emerged that an interview in which Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda dismissed the idea of so-called helicopter money was conducted in June.

The Japanese currency earlier jumped more than 1 percent after, in comments broadcast on BBC Radio 4 on Thursday, Kuroda said there was no need or possibility for such a strategy. The interview was conducted on June 17, a BBC spokeswoman said.

Source: Bloomberg

This is not a surprise to anyone who does actual analysis. Kuroda said back in April 2016 (even before the above interview) that the Bank of Japan CANNOT implement helicopter money because it is ILLEGAL under Japan’s constitution.

But then again, we are talking about the same Central Bank head that claimed NIRP wasn’t coming… only to launch it eight days later in February 2016. However, that proved a disaster with the Yen surging while the Nikkei plunged.

This is the problem with the entire financial system today: everything is trading based on the words of a handful of Central Bankers, many of whom was perfectly willing to lie or deceive just to push stocks higher.

Indeed, the entire market move from the BREXIT lows has been a desperate manipulation by Central Banks as they begin to lose control of the financial system.

We saw the same thing happen in 2007: a final push to new all-time highs in October. What followed wasn't pretty.

A Crash is coming… and the time to prepare is NOW, before it hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming crash will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

We are giving away just 1,000 copies of this report for FREE to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

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