Jihadists Are Selling CIA-Supplied Weapons On Facebook

Once upon a time, roughly two year ago, the US would vehemently deny that any of its weapons made their way to ISIS, Al Nusra, and the various other jihadist groups operating in the middle east and which the US is, supposedly, targeting for eradication as part of the Syria proxy war. Then, little by little it was revealed that not only is the US not targeting said groups, which led to the Russian bombing campaign unleashed in September, but that it was actively arming them.

And nowhere is this more obvious than in a Facebook page called “The first weapons market in the Idleb countryside” which showcases posts with photographs of weapons, claimed to be CIA-supplied, inviting buyers to contact page administrators privately using popular messaging application Whatsapp to discuss sales and transactions.

Think of it as a Alibaba for ISIS, in which the CIA is the main supplier.

As The Foreign Desk News’ Lisa Daftari explains, Jihadists in Syria are using Facebook as a marketplace to buy, sell and barter a wide variety of American-made weapons and munitions ranging from rocket launchers to machine guns.

An AGS-17 Soviet-era grenade launcher is listed for $3,800 and below that a thermal camera made by Oregon-based company FLIR, is listed alongside posts advertising the sale of 105mm cannon shells.

Weapons like TOW and MANPAD missile launchers, which the CIA has provided to rebel groups in Iraq and Syria, and can pose serious threats to civilian and military jets, are also advertised on the page.

Throughout the course of the Syrian Civil War, efforts by the U.S. to arm so-called “moderate rebels” with heavy weapons have largely fallen flat due to fears that they will end up with groups such as Al Qaeda or even ISIS.

Buyers can also make requests for specific weapons, as one post on the page says, “Quick friends, I need a gun with a silencer.”

Page members are linked to jihadist groups Ahrar Al-Sham and the Islamic Front, the former allegedly linked to Al-Qaeda


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Guest Post: Will A “Socialist” Government Make Americans Freer?

Submitted by Jason Kuznicki via Foundation for Economic Education,

“Socialism” is a weasel word.

Consider that the adjective “socialist” applies commonly — even plausibly  to countries with vastly different ex ante institutions and with vastly different social and economic outcomes. Yet Canada, Norway, Venezuela, and Cuba can’t all be one thing. Does socialism mean substantial freedom of the press, as in Norway? Or does it mean the vicious suppression of dissent, as in Venezuela?

We need more clarity here before we decide whether socialism is a worthwhile social system, and whether, as Will Wilkinson recommends, we ought to support a socialist candidate for president.

An approach that clearly will not do is to apply the term “socialism” to virtually all foreign countries. Shabby as that definition may be, some do seem to use it, both favorably and not. The result is that “socialism” has grown popular largely because a lot of people have concluded that the American status quo stinks. Maybe it does stink, but that doesn’t endow “socialism” with a proper definition.

Let’s see what happens when we drill down to the level of institutions.

Now, we might personally wish that the word “socialism” meant “the social system in which the state owns the means of production and runs the major industries of the nation.”

This is a workable definition: It has a clear genus and differentia; it includes some systems, while excluding others; and it’s not obviously self-referential. It’s also the definition preferred by many important political actors in the twentieth century, including Vladimir Lenin.

Lenin’s definition was not a bad one. But it’s far from the only current, taxonomically proper definition of socialism. As Will Wilkinson rightly notes, socialism also commonly means “the social system in which the state uses taxation to provide an extensive social safety net.”

And yet, as Will also notes, “ownership of the means of production” and “provision of a social safety net” are logically independent policies. A state can do one, the other, both, or neither. Of these four possibilities, there’s only one that can’t plausibly be called a socialism and not a single state on earth behaves this way!

Better terms are in order, but I know that whatever I propose here isn’t going to stick, so I’m not going to try. Instead I want to look at some of the consequences that may arise from our fuzzy terminology.

One danger is that we may believe and support one conception of “socialism” only to find that the agents we’ve tasked with supplying it have had other ideas all along: We may want Norway but get Venezuela. Wittingly or unwittingly.

Before we say “oh please, of course we’ll end up in Norway,” let’s recall how eager our leftist intelligentsia has been to praise Chavez’s Venezuela — and even declare it an “economic miracle until the truth became unavoidable: The “miracle” of socialism in Venezuela turned out to be nothing more than a transient oil boom. Yet leftist intellectuals are the very sorts of people who will be drawn, by self-selection, to an administration that is proud to call itself socialist.

There’s some resemblance to a “motte-and-bailey” process here: they cultivate the rich, desirable fields of the bailey, until they are attacked, at which point they retreat to the well-fortified motte. The easily defensible motte is the comfortable social democracy of northern Europe, which we all agree is pretty nice and happens to have quite a few free-market features. The bailey is the Cuban revolution.

This motte-and-bailey process does not need to be deliberate; it may be the result of a genuinely patchwork socialist coalition. No one in the coalition needs to have bad faith. An equivocal word is all that’s needed, and one is already on hand.

Even when we look only at one country, the problem remains: We may only want some institutional parts of Denmark — and we may want them for good reasons, such as Denmark’s relatively loose regulatory environment. But what we get may only be the other institutional parts of Denmark — such as its high personal income taxes. (Worth noting: Bernie Sanders has explicitly promised the higher personal income taxes, while his views on regulation are anything but Danish.)

Will thinks that electing someone on the far left of the American political spectrum could be somewhat good for liberty, but I’m far from convinced. Remember what happened the last time we put just a center-leftist in the White House: By the very same measures of economic freedom that Will uses to tout Denmark’s success, America’s economic freedom ranking sharply declined. And that decline was the direct result of Barack Obama’s left-wing economic policies. We got a larger welfare state and higher taxes, but we also got much more command-and-control regulation.

Faced with similar objections from others, Will has already performed a nice sidestep: He has replied that voting for Sanders is — obviously — just a strategic move: “Obviously,” he writes, “President Bernie Sanders wouldn’t get to implement his economic policy.” Emphasis his.

To which I’d ask: Do you really mean that Sanders would achieve none of his economic agenda? At all? Because I can name at least two items that seem like safe bets: more protectionism and stricter controls on immigration. A lot of Sanders’s ideas will indeed be dead on arrival, but these two won’t, and he would be delighted to make a bipartisan deal that cuts against most everything that Will, the Niskanen Center, and libertarians generally claim to stand for. Cheering for a guy who would happily bury your legislative agenda, and who stands a good chance of actually doing it seems… well, odd.

There is also a frank inconsistency to Will’s argument: The claim that Sanders will make us more like Denmark can’t be squared with the claim that Sanders will be totally ineffective. Arguing both is just throwing spaghetti on the wall — and hoping the result looks like libertarianism.

Would Sanders decriminalize marijuana? Or reform the criminal justice system? Or start fewer wars? Or spend less on defense? Or give us all puppies? I don’t know. Obama promised to close Guantanamo. He promised to be much better on civil liberties. He promised not to start “dumb wars” or bomb new and exotic countries. He even promised accountability for torture.

In 2008, I made the terrible mistake of counting those promises in his favor. We’ve seen how well that worked out.

It’s completely beyond me why I should trust similarly tangential promises this time around — particularly from a candidate like Sanders, whose record on foreign policy is already disturbingly clear. None of the rest of these desiderata have anything to do with state control over our economic life, which would appear to be the one thing the left wants most of all. (Marijuana: illegal in Cuba. Legal in North Korea. Yay freedom?)

Ultimately, I think that electing someone significantly further left than Obama will not help matters in any sense at all, except maybe that it will show how little trust we should put in anyone who willingly wears the socialist label. The only good outcome of a Sanders administration may be that we’ll all say to ourselves afterward: “Well, we won’t be trying that again!”

Now, I am prepared to believe, exactly as Will writes, that “‘social democracy,’ as it actually exists, is sometimes more ‘libertarian’ than the good old U.S. of A.” That’s true, at least in a few senses. Consider, for instance, that Denmark isn’t drone bombing unknown persons in Pakistan using a type of algorithm that can’t seem to deliver interesting Facebook ads. (One could say that, as usual, Denmark is letting us do their dirty work for them, with their full approval, but I won’t press the point.)

Either way, that’s still a pretty low bar, no? Meanwhile, there remains plenty of room for us to imitate some other bad things — things that we aren’t doing now, but that Denmark is doing, like taxing its citizens way, way too much. The fact that these things are a part of the complex conglomerate known as northern European social democracy doesn’t necessarily make them good, exactly as remote control assassination doesn’t become good merely by virtue of being American.

In short: Point taken about social democracy. At times, some of it isn’t completely terrible. But that only gets us so far, and not quite to the Sanders slot in the ballot box.

It seems interest in "socialism" is peaking once again…

 


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The 10th GOP Debate Begins: And Then There Were 5 – Live Feed

With the field down to the fantastic five, tonight's GOP debate – the last chance to hatchet your opponent before Super Tuesday – should be a real deathmatch. With The Donald so far ahead, Kasich and Carson have nothing to lose and Rubio and Cruz will be lobbing soundbite-grenades at one another as well as taking aim at Trump. In light of Trump's comments on Tuesday night, "it's going to be an amazing two months… we might not even need the two months, folks, to be honest," the gloves must come off.

Dead men walking?

 

 

Carson goes negative early… "Our nation is heading off the abyss of destruction."

The debate is due to start at 830ET (Live Feed)… (via Telemundo – Spanish translation overlay)


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Reason Live Tweets the GOP Debate

Tonight at 8:30 p.m., Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and John Kasich take the CNN debate stage in Houston. Wolf Blitzer will be the primary moderator, with Hugh Hewitt, Dana Bash and Telemundo’s Maria Celeste Arraras contributing questions. 

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R.I.P. M&A Boom: Goldman Fails To Get $2 Billion LBO Deal Done Even At Double-Digit Yields

Make no mistake, there are any number of landmines that threaten to send global markets into a veritable tailspin. There’s the risk of further weakness (and volatility) in crude, there’s the risk that China suddenly decides on a one-off RMB deval, there’s the risk that someone makes a “mistake” in Syria and triggers a global conflict, etc.

You know the drill.

But when it comes to identifying what’s most likely to present a major problem (i.e. the risk factor that has the best chance of playing out and wreaking havoc) one would be inclined to say that a junk bond meltdown is a good candidate.

The influx of money into HY – attributable in part to the proliferation of more esoteric ETFs and investors’ never-ending quest for yield – has gone a long ways towards keeping primary markets open to distressed issuers. Like US O&G companies who, by virtually of their persistent cash flow shortfalls, are for all intents and purposes perpetually insolvent and rely solely on capital markets to fill their funding gaps.

Well now, the party is over and the energy defaults are beginning, which means capital markets for junk bonds have slammed shut. Need proof? Have a look:

On Thursday, we got still more evidence that the market’s appetite for junk is waning when Goldman ran into trouble trying to get the financing done for the Vista/Solera deal

Solera – which is being sold to PE Vista Equity Partners – didn’t have any trouble with a $1.9 billion leveraged loan offering last week (it was actually oversubscribed), but when Goldman tried to price $2 billion in bonds intended to help fund the LBO, things got dicey. Goldman was already figuring on pricing it at 10.75% -11% (which is obviously a rather punishing rate in the first place and was up from initial guidance of 10%) but by this morning, the bank had only managed to drum up about $1 billion in interest, causing pricing expectations to move above the expected range. 

The difficulties are the latest sign that it is getting harder for heavily indebted companies to borrow,WSJ noted this afternoon. “Junk-rated firms have issued just $11.6 billion in bonds so far this year, down from $48.5 billion during the same period last year and the lowest total since 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis, according to Dealogic.”

As The Journal goes on to note, this wasn’t the first sign that things are starting to fall apart. “In recent weeks, LeasePlan International NV shelved a €1.55 billion ($1.71 billion) bond sale after failing to get enough investor interest. Banks were forced to fund Endurance International Group Holdings Inc.’s acquisition of email-marketing firm Constant Contact Inc. after failing to find buyers for $1.1 billion of buyout debt.”

So, yeah. You can kiss the M&A boom goodbye, because it won’t be long before HY blows up completely and the contagion spreads to IG, creating a whole host of “fallen angels” who will then also lose market access, and so on, and so forth in a messy default cycle that will not only make this year far, far worse for mergers than last year’s $4.3 trillion bonanza, but will also spell doom for any junk-rated corporates that need to refinance to stay afloat. 

As for the Solera deal – better luck tomorrow. Maybe make it 12% and give investors the weekend to think it over.


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Demand For Big Bills Soars As NIRP-Fearing Japanese Stuff Safes With 10,000-Yen Notes

Earlier this week, we were amused but not at all surprised to learn that Japanese citizens are buying safes like they’re going out of style.

The reason: negative rates and the incipient fear of a cash ban. “Look no further than Japan’s hardware stores for a worrying new sign that consumers are hoarding cash–the opposite of what the Bank of Japan had hoped when it recently introduced negative interest rates,” WSJ wrote. “Signs are emerging of higher demand for safes—a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero, no matter what the central bank does.”

Put simply, the public has suddenly become aware of what it means when central banks adopt negative rates. The NIRP discussion escaped polite circles of Keynesian PhD economists long ago, and now it’s migrated from financial news networks to Main Street.

Although banks have thus far been able to largely avoid passing on negative rates to savers, there’s only so long their resilience can last. At some point, NIM will simply flatline and if that happens just as a global recession and the attendant writedowns a downturn would entail occurs, then banks are going to need to offset some of the pain. That could mean taxing deposits.

As we noted on Monday, circulation of the 1,000 franc note soared 17% last year in Switzerland in the wake of the SNB’s plunge into the NIRP Twilight Zone.  As it turns out, demand for big bills is soaring in Japan as well.

Demand for 10,000-yen bills is steadily rising in Japan, even as the nation’s population falls and the use of credit cards and other forms of electronic payment increases,” Bloomberg writes. “While more cash might sound like a good thing, some economists are concerned that it shows Japanese households are squirreling away money at home instead of investing it or putting it into bank accounts — where it can make its way back into the financial system and be put to productive use.”

One safe maker who spoke to Bloomberg said safe shipments have doubled over the last six months. While part of the demand for safes is likely attributable to the country’s new “My Number” initiative, “the negative-rate policy is likely to intensify the preference of Japanese households to keep cash at home,” Hideo Kumano, an economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute said. “Overall, the trend of more cash at home reflects concern about the outlook for economy among households. This isn’t a good thing.”

No, it’s not. And just wait until the Japanese (and European) public makes the connection between NIRP and the cash ban calls. That is, once average people grasp the concept of the effective lower bound and then figure out that a cashless society will allow policymakers to dictate economic outcomes by robbing the public of its economic autonomy, it will be time to break out the torches and the pitchforks. 

We suppose it’s time for Kuroda to propose banning the 10,000-yen note. You know, to deter the Yakuza…


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An Escalating War On Cash Threatens The Stability & Tranquility Of Developed Societies

Submitted by John Browne via Euro Pacific Capital,

On February 16th, The Washington Post printed the article, “It’s time to kill the $100 bill.” This came on the heels of a CNNMoney item, the day before, entitled “Death of the 500 euro bill getting closer.” The former cited a recent Harvard Kennedy School working paper, No. 52 by Senior Fellow Peter Sands, concluding that the abolition of high denomination notes would help deter “tax evasion, financial crime, terrorist finance and corruption.” In recent days, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, ECB President Mario Draghi, and even the editorial board of the New York Times, came out in support of the elimination of large currency notes. Apart from the question as to why these calls are being raised now with such frequency, the larger issue is whether these moves are actually needed or if they merely a subterfuge for more complex economic manipulations by central banks to extend control over private wealth.

In early 2015, it was reported that Spain had already limited private cash transactions to 2,500 euros. Italy and France set limits of 1,000 euros. In France, all cash withdrawals in excess of 10,000 euros in a single month must be reported to government agencies. In the U.S., such limits are $10,000 per withdrawal. China, India and Sweden are among those with plans under way to eradicate cash.

On April 20, 2015, the Mises Institute reported that Chase, a subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase and a bailout recipient of some $25 billion (ProPublica, 2/22/16), had announced restrictions on its customers’ ability to use cash in the payment of credit cards, mortgages, equity lines and auto loans. Before that, on April 1, 2015, Chase, in concert with JPMorgan, updated its safe deposit box lease agreement to provide, “You agree not to store any cash or coins [including gold and silver] other than those found to have a collectible value.”

The war on cash unquestionably has extended from government into the private banking sector. But the public is predominantly unaware of the ever-increasing encroachment into individual privacy and freedom.

On February 5, 2016, The New York Times reported, “the United States could face a new recession in 2016 due to a ‘perfect storm’ of economic conditions.” Ten days later, in an introductory statement, Draghi told a European Parliamentary Committee that, “In recent weeks, we have witnessed increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy.”

When consumers worry about the economy, unemployment and their own finances, spending on non-essentials diminishes. Caution results also in paying down loans and hoarding cash.

When economic growth falters, central banks lower interest rates and inject funds into the economy. But if consumer confidence falls further, cash hoarding causes a fall in the velocity of money. This stimulates central banks to discourage the hoarding of cash by introducing negative interest rates to force deposits out of banks. On February 10th, during her congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen admitted that there had been a discussion but never fully researched “the legal issues”. However, her Vice-Chair, Stanley Fischer, already had told the Council on Foreign Relations, nine days earlier, that the Fed had discussed negative rate policy all the way back in 2012.

Should negative rates fail to force funds out of banks, governments may look to limit, and even forbid, the use of cash in large transactions. This is tantamount to a war on cash as part of an effort to eliminate citizens’ control over their wealth.

Furthermore, a war on cash could extend even to seizure of cash deposits under certain circumstances. The confiscation of bank deposits may seem remote to Americans. However, the 2013 Cypriot banking crisis exposed the new central bank stance of ‘bail-ins’ whereby deposits could now be frozen and even confiscated to rescue a bank!

Most of the great economic growth and apparent prosperity of the past 45 years, since the U.S. broke its dollar’s last link to gold, has been financed by credit-unimaginable trillions of dollars of credit. At the heart of this massive credit system are the banks.

The current collapse of oil prices places pressure on the sovereign wealth funds of oil-rich nations to reduce deposits and to sell securities. Lower deposits reduce the banks’ ability to lend and generate profits. If, simultaneously, a shrinking economy leads to bankruptcies and non-performing loans, banks would appear not only less profitable, but increasingly risky. Currently, banks are experiencing many of these pressures, which threaten a credit shortage just when it is needed most to boost confidence. This helps to explain why the current downturn in markets is being led by the financial sector.

To help make sure that depositors’ money stays in banks despite the negative rates, governments have proposed measures to eradicate opportunities to pay in cash. These measures are camouflaged politically as ‘protective’ means against money laundering, especially by terrorists.

But perhaps the most insidious of government motivations to ban cash is to increase the capability of surveillance over all spending by citizens and corporations. Undoubtedly, this makes it harder for anyone to shield income from the taxman, but it also makes it more difficult to achieve any type of anonymity in the marketplace. Soon there may be no legal place to shield legitimate wealth or spending patterns from the eyes of politicians.

Negative interest rates combined with the eradication of cash appear as a desperate attempt to control global private wealth.

Jamie Dimon is one of the world’s most astute and powerful individual bankers. On February 11th, he invested some $26.6 million in the depressed stock of his bank, JPMorgan Chase. Reported as demonstrating confidence, it may be that Dimon sees the stock price recovering strongly when it is realized more widely just how much the banks might benefit from negative rates and the erosion of cash held privately outside the banks.

President Nixon’s decision to unilaterally abolish the last remnants of a gold standard in 1971 heralded a nuclear age for international trade in which nations looked to gain advantage through serial debasement of their currencies and make up the difference with massive debt creation, unfettered by any link to gold. Similar to the nuclear strategy of mutually assured destruction, it set international trade on a course of mutually assured economic destruction.

The size and scope of the political, economic and financial problems that now challenge the relative stability and tranquility of developed societies are unprecedented. Should the war on cash prove unsuccessful in its early stages, banks could be closed for long periods.

Investors should be aware of such possibilities and consider whether to hold cash and precious metals prudently outside the banking system. Better to be even months too early than a second too late should we be left facing a bank’s closed doors.


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Afghan Refugee Takes Class On “How To Behave With Women”, Promptly Rapes Belgian Woman

As we reported earlier today, European officials have essentially put an expiration date on the EU as we know it. It’s 10 days from now.

That’s when a team from Brussels will convene a summit with Turkey to discuss a coordinated response to the refugee crisis that threatens to plunge the bloc into “anarchy” (to quote Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister). As the weather starts to improve, Europe fears even more asylum seekers will attempt to make the journey, straining Schengen to the breaking point.

Compounding the crisis is the increasingly negative perception Europeans have of refugees. As we wrote recently, Europe was remarkably resilient in the wake of the Paris attacks as people seemed to view the tragedy more as a symbol of why migrants are fleeing the Mid-East than as an omen of what they’d be exporting to Western Europe.

The goodwill faded however, following a series of alleged sexual assaults early last month and before you knew it, reports were coming in from all over the bloc that seemed to suggest quite a few male refugees had a penchant for rape. Needless to say, most officials were quick to contend that one (or two, or 50) bad apples shouldn’t be allowed to spoil the whole bushel, but others, like far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders (who called for Arab “testosterone bombs” to locked in asylum centers) weren’t so forgiving.

The death of a 22-year-old Swedish asylum center worker at the hands of a Somali migrant and the rape of a 10-year-old boy by an Iraqi refugee who blamed the act on a “sexual emergency,” haven’t helped. 

(22-year-old Alexandra Mezher was stabbed to death by a 15-year-old migrant at an asylum center)

European officials have proven completely inept when it comes to tackling the problem. Germany and Austria, for instance, attempted to create integration programs designed to teach asylum seekers about European societal norms. The classes touch on everything from how not to enter rooms with closed doors without knocking to where it is and isn’t acceptable to urinate. 

Some countries have also dreamed up some amusing cartoons that illustrate what’s acceptable behavior both in everyday life and at the swimming pool, where refugees have a particularly hard time understanding how to behave. 

Belgium also offers courses in proper behavior but apparently, they aren’t especially effective. We say that because as RT reports, “a 16-year-old Afghan refugee, who had recently taken a course on how to behave towards women, has been charged with raping a female employee at a refugee shelter in Belgium.”

The attack took place in Menan, near the French border where the child has been staying for five months. 

Two weeks before the incident took place, the boy apparently attended a class on how men should treat women in polite society. The class was taught by Red Cross Flanders. 

“When a minor comes to Belgium and when a minor comes to a center of the Red Cross Flanders, we teach them two things: first thing is sexual education… sometimes we are talking about children who are 14, 15, 16 years old. Without parents, they do not know anything,” a spokeswoman for Red Cross told RT.

We also have to explain what the normal ways of treating women here in Flanders [are],” she added.

Now, we’re not sure what “the normal ways of treating women in Flanders” are, but we’re reasonably certain they don’t involve taking caterers into the basement and raping them which is apparently what this young man did. “He already had an eye on her for quite some time, when he followed her into the basement,” the Red Cross explained. ” The victim worked for a catering company that cooks for the center.

We’re reminded of what Markus Wallner, the head of Austria’s western Vorarlberg region said about the chances that integration courses will ultimately be successful: “Let’s not delude ourselves.”

Tom Van Grieken, leader of the Belgian anti-immigrant party Vlaams Belang, isn’t “deluded.” Here’s what he had to say about the incident: “People who need a course on how to treat women should not be there in the first place.”


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Federal Court Rules You Can Be Arrested Simply For Filming The Police

Submitted by Derrick Broze via TheAntiMedia.org,

A federal court in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania has ruled that filming the police without a specific challenge or criticism is not constitutionally protected.

The cases of Fields v. City of Philadelphia, and Geraci v. City of Philadelphia involve two different incidents where individuals were arrested for filming the police. Richard Fields, a Temple University student, was arrested after stopping to take a picture of a large group of police outside a house party. Amanda Geraci, a legal observer with CopWatch Berkeley, attended a large protest against fracking in September 2012 and was arrested while filming the arrest of another protester.

Both Fields and Geraci are seeking damages from the Philadelphia Police Department for violating their Constitutional right to videotape public officials. Previous rulings have found the public has a right to record police as form of “expressive conduct,” such as a protest or criticism, which is protected by the First Amendment.

The appeals court was specifically tasked with finding out whether or not the public has a First Amendment right to photograph and film police without a clear expression of criticism or challenge to police conduct.

The court wrote:

Fields’ and Geraci’s alleged ‘constitutionally protected conduct’ consists of observing and photographing, or making a record of, police activity in a public forum. Neither uttered any words to the effect he or she sought to take pictures to oppose police activity. Their particular behavior is only afforded First Amendment protection if we construe it as expressive conduct.

The court ultimately stated,

We find no basis to craft a new First Amendment right based solely on ‘observing and recording’ without expressive conduct.”

 

Absent any authority from the Supreme Court or our Court of Appeals, we decline to create a new First Amendment right for citizens to photograph officers when they have no expressive purpose such as challenging police actions,” the decision concluded.

Eugene Volokh, a professor of law at UCLA, disagrees with the decision and says he believes it will eventually be overturned by the Third Circuit Court of Appeals upon appeal.

Whether one is physically speaking (to challenge or criticize the police or to praise them or to say something else) is relevant to whether one is engaged in expression,” Volokh wrote in the Washington Post.

 

But it’s not relevant to whether one is gathering information, and the First Amendment protects silent gathering of information (at least by recording in public) for possible future publication as much as it protects loud gathering of information.

Whether or not the ruling is overturned, it should serve as a reminder to all free hearts and minds that the cost of liberty is eternal vigilance. We cannot become passive and allow the ruling class and despots in government to subvert our path towards liberation. Now more than ever we need communities to actively organize copwatching and politician-watching campaigns that encourage accountability and transparency.  We must also remain strong in our sense of morality and principles, and not allow what is “legal” or “constitutional” to limit us in our fight for freedom.


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The Curious Case Of “Strong” January Durable Goods: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

Two weeks ago, when the strong retail sales report saved the US market from plunging below the critical 1,812 level, we peeked behind the headline of the just reported January retail sales report, and we found that far from the adjusted 3.4% Y/Y increase in retail sales, the actual, unadjusted, number was a paltry 1.4% shown in the chart below…

 

… and matching the lowest January increase since the financial crisis.

 

As we also showed, the seasonal adjustment factor for January 2016 was a glaring outlier, and by far the biggest one this decade.

 

Which brings us to today’s Durable Goods report.

As we reported earlier in the day, the numbers on the surface, were strong, with one of the largest monthly jumps in years even if the annual change continued to underwhelm, while core capex shipment remained negative.

And then something caught our attention: according to a report by Mitsubishi UFJ’s John Hermann, one of the most important, if volatile, series in the overall monthly update, that of commercial aircraft orders made absolutely no sense. As he notes, in January Boeing reported a 70% drop in actual aircraft unit orders (the same in dollar terms), and yet according to the Department of Commerce, the matched series of nondefense aircraft orders soared by 54% in January.

How could this be? Simple: seasonal adjustments.

 

Which made us curious: was this “strong” Durable Goods report nothing than more seasonal adjustment slight of hand? The answer, in a word, yes.

The chart below shows the difference between the actual and adjusted series. We are almost surprised to learn that in January, the monthly adjustment hit a record high $14 billion.

 

But maybe on an annual basis the difference was not quite as gaping? To account for that we repeated the analysis we did with retail sales, only with durable goods excluding transports: after all we already knew that the aircraft number was a complete farce. What we found was that just like with the retail sales report two weeks ago, so all of the upside in the durable goods report was from seasonals.

As shown in the chart below, while adjusted core durable goods barely declined from a year ago – and keep in mind that seasonal adjustments only affects month to month variance, not year over year – dropping a fractional -0.6%, on an unadjusted basis, the drop was a material -2.5%, by far the biggest since 2009.

 

And just to show how acute the adjustment fabrication was January of 2016, here is the seasonal adjustment factor, which we calculated as the annual change in the seasonally adjusted number relative to the unadjusted one. It is rather obvious where the outlier is.

What all the above means is that contrary to the “smoothed over” numbers, in January capital spending was not only far worse than expected and will be revised lower in coming months, but will give the market – and the Fed – a false impression about the state of the economy.

Which would be a problem if the Fed was actually data dependent as it claims. However, since recent events have demonstrated that the Fed was, is and continue to be entirely Dow Jones-dependent, none of the above actually matters, especially since no economic data is relevant when algos engage in short squeeze igniring stop hunts, or when either the Fed or the Treasury decide to postpone a POMO or Treasury auction, and unleash a massive risk ramp higher.

 


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1LgMsuJ Tyler Durden