NatGas Tumbles To 16-Year Lows

More "unequivocally good" news. On the heels of a smaller than expected drawdown in natural gas inventories (-117 vs -135bcf), Nattie futures have tumbled to their lowest intraday level since 1999…

 

 

And while the oil market is "glutted," some are arguing the NatGas market is even more so…

OilPrice.com's Nick Cunningham warns, while the glut in oil is expected to continue for the next year or so before balancing in late 2016, the pain for liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be just beginning

Building LNG export terminals is a long-term proposition. It can take years to develop a greenfield project, bringing a lump of new capacity online long after the project was initially planned, exposing developers to the possibility that market conditions could change in the interim. It is not unlike a conventional oil project, such as an offshore well, which also can take years (as opposed to a much shorter lead time for shale drilling).

But there is a major difference between oil and LNG: the market for LNG is much smaller and less liquid (no pun intended). In other words, a handful of new LNG export terminals can significantly alter the supply/demand balance.

That is exactly what is currently unfolding. Several years ago, spot prices in Asia for LNG spiked, particularly following Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Japan’s demand for LNG skyrocketed. At the same time, the shale gas revolution was unfolding in the U.S., and rock bottom prices opened up a window of opportunity to ship American gas to Asia. But it wasn’t just the U.S. – LNG export terminals proliferated around the world, particularly in Australia.

There were so many projects planned at the same time, and the first batch started to come online this year, with many more nearing completion in 2016 and 2017.

The rush of new supply is hitting the market all at the same time. Not only would such a rush in supply have pushed down prices on their own, the timing is actually really unfortunate for LNG exporters. Economies in East Asia are slowing, leaving a shortfall in demand. Japan, the largest LNG importer, is seeing its economy stagnate. China’s growth has slowed significantly.

As a result, JKM spot prices – the LNG marker for East Asia – are trading at $7.28 per million Btu (MMBtu) for December delivery, down nearly two-thirds from early 2014 prices.

Many LNG exporters have their cargoes signed up under long-term contracts on fixed prices. But usually not all of a given supplier’s capacity has secured buyers. The leftovers are sold on the spot market. With prices so low, spot sales are garnering much lower revenue.

Next year may be worse than this year, and 2017 could be yet even worse. "From having been an import basin, Asia will next year be going to have excess supplies and worse so in 2017," David Hewitt of Credit Suisse told Reuters.

New export terminals will add 14 to 15 million tonnes of annual LNG capacity (mtpa) to the spot market over the next year. But that extra supply is running into a wall of stagnating demand. Japan’s LNG imports dropped by 12.8 percent in November, year-on-year. South Korea’s level of imports are at their lowest levels in six years.

Credit Suisse’s David Hewitt says that spot prices could drop to $5/MMBtu over the next few months, and even dip to an “eye-watering low” of $4/MMBtu at some point in 2016.

Again, oil markets are expected to see the supply overhang come into balance on a much shorter time horizon, perhaps by late 2016 or 2017. But the LNG market, with a much smaller demand base around the world, has much bigger problems. New regasification terminals will add new demand for LNG over the next few years, and demand is expected to jump by 50 mtpa by 2020. That is a substantial increase in expected consumption. The problem? New supplies will add 120 mtpa in LNG export capacity over the same timeframe, dwarfing even the most bullish cases for demand.

The excess supplies are beginning to change the LNG trade. The spot market is growing dramatically, as extra cargoes are resold to willing buyers. This is undermining long-term contracts, and also starting to change the practice of linking prices to crude oil prices. Singapore is launching an LNG futures market, which will accelerate these forces and bring more transparency to the trade. The market is becoming more liquid, offering more opportunities for buyers, at lower prices. That is great for the LNG consumer.

But the glut, set to worsen next year and the year after that, is terrible for gas producers or LNG exporters.


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Eric Holder Says Marijuana ‘Certainly Ought to Be Rescheduled’

In a recently published Frontline interview, Eric Holder made his strongest statement yet in favor of reclassifying marijuana, a process he could have initiated when he was attorney general. Asked if marijuana should be decriminalized, Holder said:

I certainly think it ought to be rescheduled. You know, we treat marijuana in the same way that we treat heroin now, and that clearly is not appropriate. So at a minimum, I think Congress needs to do that. Then I think we need to look at what happens in Colorado and what happens in Washington. 

By putting the onus on Congress, Holder (like his former boss) obscures the fact that the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) authorizes the executive branch to reschedule drugs on its own. Although decriminalizing marijuana would require new legislation, the CSA allows the attorney general, after consulting with the Department of Health and Human Services, to move drugs from one schedule to another. He could, for example, move marijuana from Schedule I, which is supposedly reserved for drugs with a high potential for abuse and no medical applications, to Schedule III, which includes accepted medicines with a lower abuse potential. But neither Holder nor President Obama has ever shown any interest in pursuing that option, preferring to pretend it does not exist.

In saying marijuana “certainly…ought to be rescheduled” (albeit by Congress), Holder goes further than comments he made in September 2014, after announcing that he planned to leave the Justice Department. In an interview with Katie Couric of Yahoo News, Holder said:

I think it’s certainly a question that we need to ask ourselves—whether or not marijuana is as serious a drug as is heroin, especially given what we’ve seen recently with regard to heroin, the progression of people using opioids to heroin use, the spread and the destruction that heroin has perpetrated all around our country, and to see, by contrast, what the impact is of marijuana use. Now, it can be destructive, you know, if used in certain ways. But the question of whether or not they should be in the same category is something that I think we need to ask ourselves, and use science as the basis for making that determination.

His stronger comments in the Frontline interview, which was conducted last September but did not air until Tuesday, presumably reflect a greater willingness to be candid now that he is no longer attorney general, as opposed to an evolution of his views.

[via Tom Angell at Marijuana.com]

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U.S. Unable To Halt ISIS March Towards Libyan Oil

Submitted by Joao Peixe via OilPrice.com,

The Islamic State (ISIS) is taking on recruits faster than anyone can keep up with, and it’s heading towards Libya’s oil crescent, eyeing billions of barrels that a country at war with itself cannot protect – even with U.S. air strikes.

In mid-December, the United Nations brokered a power-sharing agreement between Libya’s rival factions, but there is no chance of implementing this. That means there is no chance that the Libyan government can fight back the advance of ISIS. Things are about to get messy, and U.S. air strikes will put only a small dent in a big problem.

According to U.S. intelligence figures, there are an estimated 6,000 ISIS fighters now in Libya, headquartered in the town of Sirte, as Oilprice.com has reported in the past. From here, they control hundreds of miles of coastline. There is nothing in Sirte they want; this is simply a strategic base.

ISIS fighters have also been tracked down to Benghazi, but here they have not solidified control yet. Still, Benghazi is an important recruitment venue. More specifically, this is where it can combine forces with it radical brethren in the form of Ansar al-Sharia and other radical factions. Benghazi is where ISIS gets bigger. And its pace of recruitment is faster than anything we’ve ever seen before. It absorbs new radical factions wherever it goes. The more successful its attacks and territory grabs, the more successful its recruiting becomes. In Libya, the former prowess of Ansar al-Sharia has quickly waned. ISIS is more brutal, and more decisive. It’s either join or be killed.

ISIS’ ability to launch attacks is not limited to Sirte, which is just the staging ground, or even to Benghazi. It can attack pretty much anywhere using hit-and-runs and suicide bombings.

So what is it after? There is a multipronged strategy here. The first is to get closer to Europe. The second is to get closer to Africa. The third is to get closer to more oil revenues to fill quickly depleting coffers in Syria and northern Iraq.

The ISIS Oil Picture in Libya

There is no oil in Sirte, but ISIS was able to take control of this area because no one was really paying attention. The tribes here are loyal to Gaddafi, but they took a backseat to Ansar al-Sharia, which in turn took a backseat to ISIS when it arrived.

ISIS has largely been allowed to run amuck in and around Sirte because the raging civil war that pits two rival Libyan governments against each other has left the country incapable of fighting off the ISIS advance. But now ISIS is targeting Libyan oil installations—and this is what invites U.S. air strikes.

Last month, ISIS attacked Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, which lie east of Sirte and beyond its area of control. Es Sider is an oil port, and Libya’s largest export terminal, with a capacity to export nearly 450,000 barrels per day. Ras Lanuf is a refining area. Ras Lanuf has storage tanks, and the tank attacked by ISIS was holding about 400,000 barrels of oil. The attack on Ras Lanuf was captured on video.

Both Es Sider and Ras Lanuf have been closed since December 2014—victims of the civil war that is largely a battle for control over the country’s oil wealth. They are perilously located right between ISIS-controlled Sirte and Benghazi in the east.

But ISIS has farther-reaching oil plans in Libya. It’s going after the producing fields in the southern desert.

(Click to enlarge)

In a video, ISIS made it clear that it had no plans to stop at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf: "Today Es Sider port and Ras Lanuf and tomorrow the port of Brega and after the ports of Tobruk, Es Serir, Jallo, and al-Kufra."

When it gets a foothold in the southern desert’s oil crescent, this will be the point of no return.

ISIS has already secured the route to the “oil crescent”, which encompasses all the producing fields in the southern desert. It’s done this by taking control of the desert town of Nufaliya, which is about 50 kilometers from Es Sider.

At stake here is Libya’s 48 billion barrels of estimated reserves—the largest in Africa. The civil war alone has shut down over three-quarters of Libya’s production, which might be good for the current oil supply glut, but it’s very bad for Libya and regional stability.

US air strikes won’t likely be enough. ISIS has already cleared a path to the oil crescent, and without a functioning, unified government in Libya, there is no chance of heading them off effectively. Air strikes are but a bandage on a gaping wound.


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Oil Tumbles Amid Storage Concerns As Genscape Reports Cushing Build

What goes up on nothing but a short-squeeze, must come down on fundamentals. Following yesterday's DOE report of a nother build at Cushing (which followed API's report of another build at Cushing), Genscape has just reported another large build at Cushing (+503k barrels)the storage wars are back.

And the result…

 

As we detailed previously, Genscape joins the ever louder chorus that the US is approaching the capacity tipping point:

 

Further, Genscape adds that when looking specifically at Cushing, the storage facility is virtually operationally full (or at 80%) with just 4-5 more months at current inventory build left until the choke point is breached, and as we have reported previously, storage requests for specific grades being denied however the silver lining is that there is a lot of open pipeline space from Cushing to gulf coast (their full presentation can be watched here).

* * *

For those interested, the Genscape presentation can be watched in its entirety below

 


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Pre-game and Post-game Your GOP Debate with Matt Welch on SiriusXM Insight

God help us. ||| UPIAs in the previous two days, I will be riding shotgun today in driver Michael C. Moynihan‘s version of the Sirius XM Insight Hour (Channel 121) at noon ET, and like yesterday will be joined by Freethink Media impersario Kmele Foster. We will be talking about tonight’s GOP presidential debate, last night’s Black Lives Matter interruption of a Hillary Clinton event, and plenty else. Call in at 877-974-7487 to join the melee.

Then tonight on SiriusXM Insight channel I’ll be back at 11 p.m., or whenever the Republican debate finally ends, along with an all-star cast of by-then drunken comics and political analysts, orchestrated by Pete Dominick. The last time we did this, Moynihan squeezed some outrageous Hurricane Katrina confessions from a sloshed Matt Taibbi, so the prospects for WTF entertainment value are high.

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Deadline Approaching: Intern at Reason This Summer!

The Burton C. Gray Memorial Internship program runs year-round in the Washington, D.C. office. Interns work for 12 weeks and receive a $5,000 stipend.

The job includes reporting and writing for Reason and Reason.com, helping with research, proofreading, and other tasks. Previous interns have gone on to work at such places as The Wall Street JournalForbes, ABC News, and Reason itself.

The deadline to apply is Tuesday, March 1. Send your résumé, up to five writing samples (preferably published clips), and a cover letter to: 

Gray Internship
Reason
1747 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20009

Electronic applications can be sent to intern@reason.com; please include “Gray Internship Application – Summer” in the subject line.

Summer internships begin in May, though exact dates are flexible.

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Congressional Hearing On How Apple iPhone Encryption Makes “Worldwide Threats” Worse: Live Hearing

Moments ago, the Permanent Committee on Intelligence launched a hearing on the topic of “World Wide Threats”, whose unstated focus is whether Apple’s encryption makes these threats worse.

While AAPL employees are not present, yet, among those testifying will be Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Brennan, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation James Comey, Deputy Director of the National Security Agency Richard Ledgett, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, and Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Nicholas Rasmussen.

In other words, the “who’s who” of everyone who wants to break into your iPhone. The opening statement can be found here.

Sadly, Edward Snowden is absent.

Here are some of the already noted highlights:

  • FBI DIRECTOR COMEY SAYS APPLE DISPUTE COULD IMPACT OTHER CASES
  • COMEY SAYS HE WANTS TO KEEP FBI OUT OF POLICY MAKING ON DISPUTE
  • COMEY SAYS FBI IS USING ALL LAWFUL TOOLS TO INVESTIGATE CASE
  • COMEY: NEED ROBUST NATIONAL DISCUSSION ON ISSUES IN APPLE CASE
  • COMEY: APPLE CONFLICT `HARDEST QUESTION I HAVE SEEN IN GOVT’
  • COMEY SAYS APPLE HAS BEEN COOPERATIVE, HELPFUL

Follow the hearing below:


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Citi Is Confused Why People Read “Bearish Stories”

In his daily note to clients, Citi’s Brent Donnelly appears confused: specifically, he asks why are people focus on “bearish news.” This is what he said:

Give the people what they want

 

In an email I sent Monday, I was critical of the financial media for highlighting bearish stories but ignoring bullish ones. I was thinking about this and realized that maybe you can’t blame the commentators… People just gravitate towards bad news—humans are much more interested in watching a car crash or shooting on TV than a feel-good story. 

 

I looked at Google searches related to the stock market. The results (Chart1) speak for themselves. My conclusion is that it’s not fair to blame Zerohedge and friends for the permabear newsflow… They’re just giving the people what they want!

 

 

Since this is a topic we have covered extensively over the years, we won’t waste much time responding to Mr. Donnelly and instead reply in pithy kind:

What people want is not bearish news, what they want is the truth, something they, for whatever reason, feel they can’t get from the mainstream media, which in turn has opened up opportunities to alternative media outlets such as “Zerohedge and friends.” Incidentally, these outlets are not only not permabears – we remind Mr. Donnelly that our “trade of the year” which we presented on February 12, and which returned 30% in just two days was to go long Chesapeake bonds – but are observations always backed by facts, virtually all of which have to do with documenting and narrating the plight of an overhyped recovery which never took place, and a broken and rigged market is, as the following simple Google query indicates:

As for whether Mr. Donnelly has a problem with “Zerohedge and friends” laying out those things which he prefers not to discuss, we would recommend he stay away from the most recent report written by his Citi co-worker, Matt King, titled permabearishly enough “Don’t look down – You might find too many negatives” and which we summarized in the following post:  “Citi: we have a problem.”

If Mr. Donnelly is still confused by the difference between truth and “bearish news”, we are happy to explain it further.


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A Teachable Moment: The Young Person Complaining About Her Job At Yelp Discovers Real Minimum Wage Is $0

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith vis OfTwoMinds blog,

You identified two problems but do not propose any solutions to either one; and you missed the two real problems.

This open letter from a young customer support employee of Yelp in San Francisco to her CEO has garnered a variety of comments that display a common bifurcation: some are sympathetic to her struggle to get by in a very costly region on a modest salary, while others wonder if the letter is an Onion parody of clueless entitlement: An Open Letter To My CEO.

I am sympathetic to anyone who arrives in a very competitive "big city" with no local contacts and not a lot of experience or specialized training. That describes me when I arrived in the San Francisco Bay Area a few decades ago.

My B.A. is in philosophy, which has a similar market value to your degree in English, i.e. near-zero. But this doesn't mean my training in philosophy has no value; it simply means you can't walk up to a potential employer and say, "Hi, I have a degree in philosophy, hire me."

The value is only reaped by applying what you have learned. Studying philosophy taught me a number of specific analytic skills: to seek out false assumptions and identify problems and potential solutions. If you can't frame the problem accurately and coherently, it's impossible to identify any useful solutions.

These skills have served me well, despite my "worthless" degree. Though nobody had any sound reason to pay me a lot of money simply because I had a B.A. in philosophy, life presents a constant flow of problems that need to be analyzed in ways that enable the development of solutions.

In other words, there is a super-abundance of opportunities to apply what I learned.

Taking my own experience as an employee, employer, business owner and entrepreneur, I've condensed what I've learned about creating value (i.e. earnings) and the emerging economy into a book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It is less a career-guidance book and more of an explanation of how the economy actually works. It covers the eight essential skills you need to successfully navigate the economy as it is, not as we wish it was.

Rather than tell you the book is useful, I'll apply what's in it.

I don't think your age, gender, ethnicity, etc. is relevant. Anyone can apply what I'm sharing.

You have identified what you perceive as your two big problems: the cost of living in the S.F. Bay Area is very high, and your pay is too modest to enable the lifestyle you anticipated/expected.

You identified these two problems but do not propose any solutions to either one; and you missed the two real problems. Problems don't solve themselves; problem-solving requires analysis, diligence and a willingness to learn from others, to experiment and fail–not once, but continually.

You did not identify the third problem: your expectations are completely mis-aligned with reality. The S.F. Bay Area is one of the most attractive, stimulating, dynamic urban regions in the world, and it attracts capital and talent from all over the globe.

The demand to live and work here outstrips the supply of dwellings and high-paying jobs, so the costs of living are very high and the pay for labor is low unless you're able to take advantage of specific skills or social contacts.

Many of the people who come here seeking work are highly educated, experienced, creative, ambitious, hard-working, dedicated, etc., and many possess enviable social skills (social capital).

If you intend to find work here (i.e. if you don't have a large monthly income from a trust fund), you will be competing against extremely competitive, ambitious people, many of whom focus not on the hardships but on the opportunities. Expecting to outcompete these people for a high-paying job is unrealistic unless you have competitive skills, a strong work ethic, abundant social and human capital, etc.

Whatever you lack, you will have to acquire in order to be competitive in this environment.

if you want a degree that opens doors, earn a PhD in EE/CS from UC Berkeley or Stanford, or get top marks in your Stanford/Haas School (UCB) MBA program.

For the rest of us mere mortals, credentials don't offer much advantage, as this is one of the most over-credentialed locales on the planet.

The question is: what can you do to create value? It's not so much a matter of having job skills or experience; it's how those can be applied to create value–either for your employer or for your own enterprise.

So the real problem you have is: what can you do to increase your value creation and thus your earnings? "Unfair" doesn't count. Labor has a market value, end of story. Unfortunately, there is an oversupply of labor around the world and a scarcity of high-paying jobs.

It may seem like there is an abundance of high-paying jobs in the Bay Area because we're in the bubble factory of the world, but this is only a reflection of frothy VC-fueled valuations of zero-profit companies and highly paid employees' ability to make their employers obscene amounts of money.

if you want to earn $100,000, you need to bring in $500,000 in revenues for your employee, minimum.

The second problem you have is: what can you do to dramatically lower your cost of living? Since you didn't properly identify the actual problems, you were incapable of finding solutions. Now that we've identified your real problems, we can seek solutions.

As for living costs: your goal should be to live on one of your two paychecks a month: $733. Immigrants often get by on low-paying jobs and yet manage to buy a house and pay the mortgage off in five years. They do this by sharing expenses. If you want a very low-cost lifestyle, try befriending immigrants in your social circle (or add them to your circle). Someone will likely know someone in their extended group who has a room for rent (in a house they're buying by pooling six adults' modest wages).

As for food–shop only in Chinatown or ethnic markets. If you are careful and observe what the older ladies are buying, you will not be able to carry $20 of groceries. Just recently, I bought two pounds of beautiful tangerines for $1 in Chinatown and wonderfully fresh yao-choy veggies for less than $2. Many fish are available for $2 or $3 a pound; if you're vegan, pressed tofu is a cheap substitute for meat.

Asian-style cooking only uses a few ounces of meat/meat substitute anyway.

A carton of black beans used for seasoning (it adds umami) will cost you $1.29, and last you a year. A jar of chili bean sauce (a teaspoon enlivens a dish most wonderfully) costs $2.29.

You get the point: learn to cook vegetable-based meals and your costs to eat gourmet food will drop under $100 per month. A pound of beans and some Asian veggies will feed you for a week, and with some cheap seasoning, it will be delicious.

We eat better at home for $150 than people who spend $2,000 a month eating out. Anybody can learn how to cook with low-cost ingredients on YouTube University. Make a pot of spicy dal, experiment.

If you don't have any family to share expenses with, form a family-type group of responsible, honest friends. Rent a house with them, make some basic good-neighbor rules, and kick out whomever fails to fulfill their duties and responsibilities. It will be good experience for running your own enterprise.

Here is my version of a letter you could have sent Yelp's CEO:

Dear CEO:

 

I know you're busy, but I have two ideas that will immediately lower the costs of providing customer support while boosting productivity and employee retention.

 

After three months in customer support, I've observed that a few employees have developed ways to handle customer issues quickly and with relatively few coupons. Others solve customer issues by throwing coupons at everyone.

 

I've developed a brief, concise training program that would give every customer support employee the tools to resolve customer problems more efficiently and at lower cost than the present system.

 

If customer support teams were able to earn bonuses based on their improved productivity and lower costs, this would immediately improve employee retention, at a modest cost that would be more than paid for by higher productivity.

 

The benefits from these two ideas would be immediate. I am hoping you can get me fifteen minutes with the V.P. of customer support to present my training/productivity ideas, and I'm excited by the possibility that we could make dramatic improvements with a modest investment of time and virtually no capital costs.

 

Sincerely,

Yelp Employee

cc: V.P. of customer support

Which letter do you think would be more effective in accomplishing your goal of earning more money–your letter or my letter? As management guru Peter Drucker noted, businesses don't have profits, they only have expenses. Value creation boils down to cutting costs, boosting revenues and increasing productivity.

This is as true of a sole proprietorship as it is of a major corporation.

If the management of Yelp failed to show interest in your letter/proposal and did not even hear you out, you learned a very important lesson:

Yelp's management is incompetent and/or dysfunctional, and there is no opportunity for you at Yelp. This new knowledge clarifies your solution: find a job at a company/agency that is open to new ideas and is thus a place where you might be able to contribute value and grow your own human/social capital–and your earnings.

If you want to be in PR/media, start designing media/PR campaigns for small businesses for free. Most won't have any social media exposure; they will welcome your efforts to boost their revenues/customer base.

This is your job from hour 41 (after your full-time gig) to hour 55. Convincing small businesses to give you, an inexperienced person with no track record, hard cash, will be difficult; convincing them to let you design and produce a social-media campaign and share any increase in revenues with you is a much easier sell, because you're taking the risks: if the campaign flops, you earn nothing, and the business owner isn't out any cash.

But you will have learned a lot by the time you run 10 or 20 such campaigns, and if you do a good job, are honest, forthright and do what you say you're going to do, you'll assemble a useful network of contacts that will lead to opportunities you cannot anticipate.

There is much more in my book, but I hope you've learned something that can be applied to your future endeavors from this Teachable Moment.


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