The Tinaco-Anaco Railway Line: A Look At How China Overextended In A Failed Venezuela

With nearly $37 billion loaned to Venezuela since 2008, China (via its China Development Bank) had long been a source funding for the socialist country. It was easy to see how a partnership between the two would be mutually beneficial, as China would have a closer relationship with the country that as of 2015 supplied 4%-5% of its oil import needs, while Venezuela would have a virtual piggy bank to fund projects such as infrastructure.

One project the two countries partnered on was touted as South America’s first high speed train. The Tinaco-Anaco Railway, a $7.5 billion project that was supposed to have a consortium of Chinese companies display to the world their engineering and construction capabilities. A glorious 300 mile long railway was to be built in Venezuela, moving 5 million passengers and 9.8 million metric tons of cargo a year, at speeds of up to 135mph. Today, however, the project is dormant. All that ended up on display, however, is simply a broken down arch that is at the entrance of the railroad workers complex. A symbol of both a failed Venezuelan state, and a carefree China lending program.

AP explains

It was once billed as a model of socialist fraternity: South America’s first high-speed train, powered by Chinese technology, crisscrossing Venezuela to bring development to its backwater plains. Now all but abandoned, it has become a symbol of economic collapse — and a strategic relationship gone adrift.

 

Where dozens of modern buildings once stood, cattle now graze on grass growing amid the rubble of the project’s gutted and vandalized factory. A red arched sign in Chinese and Spanish is all that remains of what until 16 months ago was a bustling complex of 800 workers.

 

That’s when the project’s Chinese managers quietly cleared out.

 

As with many unfinished politically motivated projects dotting Venezuela — government critics call them “red elephants” — the decaying infrastructure contrasts with the railway’s promising beginnings.

 

A decade ago then-President Hugo Chavez dreamed up the Tinaco-Anaco railway as a way to populate the plains and attract development from long-dominant coastal areas. Stretching 300 miles (468-kilometers), it was intended to move 5 million passengers and 9.8 million metric tons of cargo a year at speeds up to 135 miles (220 kilometers) per hour.

 

Chavez turned to China, one of his closest ideological allies, for engineering and financing for the project, part of a $7.5 billion deal that has made Venezuela the world’s top recipient of Chinese loans. A consortium of state-run companies led by China Railway Group Ltd, the world’s largest train maker, was tasked with carrying out construction.

 

But completion is four years overdue, and work, when it happens at all, has slowed to a crawl. At one barracks facility visited by The Associated Press, half a dozen workers huddled under the shade of a giant cement mixer, while two shirtless managers lounged at a control panel smoking cigarettes.

 

Nowhere are the project’s declining fortunes more visible than in Zaraza, a sweltering crossroads town of 75,000 where what used to be an arena-sized factory churning out concrete railroad ties was located. In government news reels from 2013, the complex can be seen towering over manicured lawns and outdoor basketball courts where Chinese and Venezuelan workers socialized.

 

Shortly after the last Chinese managers left in January 2015, a mob of local residents — some of them armed — ransacked the site and hauled away everything of value. First to go were power generators, computers and air conditioners on the back of pick-up trucks. Vandals then tore apart dozens of buildings to scavenge for metal siding, copper wiring and ceramic tiles, some of which are now on sale at roadside stalls.

 

Jesus Eduardo Rodriguez, who owns and lives on the sprawling ranch where the factory was built, said the plundering lasted two weeks.

Several witnesses who declined to be named for fear of reprisals said the looting took place in plain view of National Guard troops, who they allege were on the take and working in collaboration with the town’s pro-government mayor, Wilfredo Balza, which is why the incident never garnered media attention.

 

Balza did not return repeated phone calls and text messages seeking comment and was said to be unavailable when AP journalists visited City Hall.

 

“They destroyed everything,” said Rodriguez, who eventually moved giant cinder blocks to cut off road access to the derelict property, which had become a haven for criminal gangs. “We just came to the house and almost cried, watching what they were doing.”

 

E-mails to China Railway in Beijing went unanswered and the company didn’t comment despite phone calls and two visits to its office in Caracas

In a poetic turn of events, just as Goldman Sachs was trying to capitalize on Venezuela’s failing economy, China was starting to walk away from it. While China has been working with Venezuela on restructuring debt, with oil prices continuing to struggle, a default may be imminent given what is taking place in the country today.

It remains unclear what the vampire squid’s current exposure to the failed Latin American state is, but it would be safe to say say that Goldman unloaded all its risk long before most realized how terminal Venezuela’s endgame truly was.

via http://ift.tt/1Tfy3gK Tyler Durden

Election 2016: Alien Vs Predator

Submitted by David P. Goldman via PJMedia.com,

A fit of high dudgeon has gripped many of my Republican friends, ex-friends, and soon-to-be-ex-friends now that Donald Trump has all but won the Republican nomination. My advice to them: get over it. This presidential race will look like Alien vs. Predator. I'm for Predator, without a second's hesitation, because he's our Predator. For all his faults Donald Trump would be (and I'm confident will be) an incomparably better president.

I'm not pleased about the outcome of the primaries. I supported Ted Cruz and helped out in his campaign with economic research and news analysis. Yes, Trump is a vulgarian with poor impulse control. I don't like him and find his vulgarity objectionable and his insulting remarks about Mexicans (for example) deplorable. The mother of my children is Mexican, and I take this sort of thing personally. If I ever have the opportunity I will give Trump a black eye.

But there's a war on–three different wars, in fact. To remain neutral is moral cowardice; to choose the wrong side would be downright wicked.

First, there is a war on between Judeo-Christian principles and the political correctness inspired by the Frankfurt School and the French existentialists. Lunatics have seized control of our universities and have stamped out dissent with the zeal and vigilance of the Spanish Inquisition or the Taliban. The distinguished historian Paul Johnson said it best in a Forbes essay:

 

America has been a land of unrestricted comment on anything–until recently. Now the U.S. has been inundated with PC inquisitors, and PC poison is spreading worldwide in the Anglo zone. For these reasons it’s good news that Donald Trump is doing so well in the American political primaries. He is vulgar, abusive, nasty, rude, boorish and outrageous. He is also saying what he thinks and, more important, teaching Americans how to think for themselves again.

 

If the foxes haven't yet seized control of the hen-house, they are running the hatchery. With the universities in the hands of the American Taliban, we can't educate a new generation of Americans. Trump is a bitter antidote, but as Johnson argues, he may be the antidote we need. One might add that he's the antidote we deserve.

 

Second, there is a war on between civilization and barbarism. Hillary Clinton says that Islam has nothing to do with terrorism. That's partly her liberal ideology, partly a kowtow to the Arab donors who gave the Clinton Foundation $40 million. Hillary, in short, sells her virtue for both fun and profit. Donald Trump cut through the Gordian Knot of political correctness by proposing a temporary ban on ALL Muslim immigration into the United States, which an absolute majority of Americans supports. After some stumbles about acting as a neutral intermediary between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs, Trump has come down unambiguously on the side of Israel, supporting continued construction in the Judea and Samaria settlements (and that's the acid test). It's not just that Trump has a daughter who is a serious and observant convert to Judaism, and that he is surrounded by pro-Israeli advisers: he instinctively despises sniveling, backstabbing losers and likes tough, smart and determined winners.

 

Third, there is a war over the future of the American economy. Clinton promises more of the same slow suffocation of American enterprise that gave us eight years of under-performance from Obama. Trump offers a supply-side tax plan with a 15% top corporate rate. My old friend and former colleague Lawrence Kudlow thinks it would be a huge improvement, and I agree.

One, two, three. These are the existential issues facing America: our culture, our safety, and our prosperity, and Trump is on the right side of all of them. Well, mainly on the right side: his meandering on the abortion issue outrages religious conservatives like the brilliant Catholic writer Joseph Bottum, a friend and former colleague at First Things magazine. Social conservatives feel offended by his offer to let Caitlin Jenner use the ladies' room at Trump Tower. Trump isn't a social conservative. But those issues are not the purview of the presidency, but rather of the legislature and the courts. Who do you want to appoint the next Supreme Court justices–Trump or Hillary Clinton?

There is also the matter of Clinton corruption on the grand scale, in particular the use of the Clinton Foundation to solicit hundreds of millions of dollars of donations from despicable Third World kleptocrats and their cronies. Peter Schweizer's book Clinton Cash shows that Bill and Hillary are the worst scoundrels ever to crawl out of the cesspool of American politics. What enrages me is not merely their thievery but their sociopathy: They like flaunting the rules, just to show that they can get away with anything. Hillary won't get away with my vote, not unless Hitler or Goebbels were to rise from the grave and run for president against her. Goering, I'd have to think about.

Then there's the matter of foreign policy. Trump is dismissive of NATO and inordinately appreciative of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It's a matter of priorities. Writing in the New York Times May 5, made this noteworthy observation about China's response to Trump:

In China, a frequent target of Mr. Trump’s criticism, he is widely viewed as a pragmatist who is less hawkish and less focused on human rights than Mrs. Clinton is.

 

His proposal to impose high taxes on Chinese goods receives little attention there, and his talk of China’s “raping” the United States in unfair trade deals has been met with shrugs, as if to say that charge is nothing new. Instead, the conversation focuses on Mr. Trump’s business success or his pronouncements on preventing foreign Muslims from entering the United States, an attitude that jibes with the antipathy in much of China toward the Muslim population in the western province of Xinjiang.

Radical Islam is an existential threat to Russia and China, who live in fear that the United States will once again back jihadists to destabilize them, as we did during the Cold War, when the Reagan administration armed Afghani jihadists against their Russian occupiers. One in seven Russians is Muslim. For the past dozen years the American foreign policy Punditeska has proclaimed that Russia would collapse of its own demographic weight. That was calamitously wrong, as I warned in this space. Russia is the last redoubt of the nasty old European nationalism that gave us so much conflict in the past. It is not a revived Soviet empire seeking to conquer the world, but a come-from-behind spoiler, burning with resentment at its would-be relegation to the scrapheap of former great powers. Nonetheless, jihadism is infinitely more important to Moscow than its border with the Baltic states.

Mitt Romney was wrong. Russia isn't the biggest threat to the United States. Russia doesn't want to destroy us. It wants to gain influence and power at our expense. Radical Islam is the biggest threat to the United States. Radical Islam wants to destroy us. I'm for collaborating with Russia against radical Islam where convenient and thwarting Russia in other matters where it suits us. We have a lot of conflicting interests and some common interests. The right way to deal with Russia is case-by-case. As for NATO: Germany is swimming in tax revenues, but won't spend enough on defense to keep more than one out of four of its fighter aircraft in service at any given moment. I'm for a strong NATO, but we don't have one and can't get one whether we want it or not.

Trump says he'll rebuild the U.S. military and our missile defense in particular, but avoid committing U.S. forces overseas. The neo-conservatives never will forgive him for this. It means that they are out of a job, and when they say that Trump means "the end of the Republican Party," they mean the end of the Republican Party that used to employ them. Robert Kagan and Max Boot have gone to the Clinton camp.

A Trump presidency almost certainly means that Chinese and Russian influence will grow faster and with fewer obstacles than it might have otherwise. That is not entirely a bad thing: the West is too squeamish to deal with the monstrous mess that radical Islam has created. I am not comfortable with Trump's isolationism. If he rebuilds America's military prowess (and especially our missile defenses), as he proposes to do, other errors can be fixed. If we don't restore our military power, nothing else we do will matter. Can you imagine Hillary Clinton rebuilding the American military?

To those who abandon the Republican Party in this hour of crisis, I say: Good riddance! Go now, and never come back. Your bad advice and dogmatic arrogance brought America from a lone pinnacle of greatness in 2001 to second-rate status in 2016, the fastest decline of a dominant power since Napoleon invaded Russia. Go pester the Democrats, and do as much damage to them as you did to us Republicans.

via http://ift.tt/1Wz2XqS Tyler Durden

What’s Next For Apple And The S&P: This Is What The Charts Say

Following last week’s relentless drop in Apple, and what appears to be a head and shoulders cap to the S&P rally which started with a double bottom in February, two questions posed most frequently by traders are i) what happens to AAPL next and ii) where does the S&P go from here.

We don’t know, since fundamentals clearly dont’ matter while technicals tend to be offset on virtually every step by some new and improved jawboning by central bankers, however, here is one attempt to answer that question by Bank of America’s chief chartist Stephen Suttmeier.

Here are his key takeaways:

  • AAPL breaks key support at $92.50 to expose $82-76. First resistance: $92.50-95.90.
  • S&P 500 tactical head-and-shoulders top watch while below 2075-2085. Break of 2039-2033 needed to confirm this bearish setup.

Some details, first on AAPL:

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has extended lower from the bearish setup highlighted in Chart Talk: 22 Apr 2016. Yesterday’s 90-day price and volume gap down resulted in a close below support going back to mid-2014, at $92.50. While below $92.50-95.90, the bears have control, with risk to chart support at $82 and the April 2014 upside gap at $80.10- $75.87. Should AAPL regain $92.50-95.90, there is plenty of resistance at $98.71- 103.91 (downside gap) and near $108 (downtrend line and falling 200-day MA).

 

 

A double bottom started this rally in the S&P 500. Does a head-and-shoulders top end it? The S&P 500 has stalled at 2075-2085 resistance so far this week. While below this resistance, the risk is for a head-and-shoulders top off the late March-to-early May peaks. The rising 50-day MA is acting as support near 2054 and it would take a decisive loss of support at 2039-2033 to confirm the head-and-shoulders top and suggest a pullback toward 1965-1950 (top projection and February double-bottom breakout point). A decisive push above 2075-2085 is required to negate this potentially bearish tactical setup for the S&P 500.

 

Our take: now that everyone is suddenly turning bearish, especially recent cheerleader Goldman warning of a “big drop” in the days ahead (not to mention Gartman) and chartists seeing sharp downside (not just BofA but UBS recently as well), expect another major round of substantial jawboning from central bankers who can not afford a downward inflection point in the market at this point, especially now that China’s record loan growth has suddenly ground to a halt.

How this may manifest itself is through a few sharp days of “forced buy-ins”, leading to a spike among the most shorted stocks in the days ahead, although now that the weak hands have all covered, it will be far more difficult to unleash the kind of record squeeze that pushed the S&P500 from its February lows of 1820 to just shy of new all time highs.

via http://ift.tt/1XcUrMy Tyler Durden

9/11 Commission Member: 6 Saudi Officials Supported Terror Attack

Submitted by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

 

Six Saudi officials are believed to have actively supported al-Qaida members in the run-up to the 9/11 attacks on America, former 9/11 Commission member and investigator John Lehman has disclosed.

Lehman, who was a member of the 9/11 Commission between 2003 and 2004, said there is documented evidence against employees of the Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs, and specifically against individuals who worked for the Saudi Embassy in the U.S., Saudi charities and the Saudi government-funded King Fahd Mosque in California.

"There was an awful lot of participation by Saudi individuals in supporting the hijackers, and some of those people worked in the Saudi government," said Lehman, stressing that these individuals had strong ties with the Saudi government in Riyadh.

The issue is resurfacing now as pressure builds to release the 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission investigation that had been redacted. Lehman’s disclosure of this information to the media is expected to increase this pressure.

Lehman’s disclosures also come at a time when the long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is being questioned and re-evaluated.

The Commission member’s disclosures contradict previous statements from other Commission members.

The Commission's chair and vice chairs, former Republican New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana, released a statement in April saying that "only one employee of the Saudi government was implicated in the plot investigation."

Still, Lehman—former Navy secretary under Ronald Reagan–stressed that “we have found no evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded the organization.”

Despite that, “our report should never have been read as an exoneration of Saudi Arabia,” Lehman said, referring to the final document of the commission issued in 2004.

He also implored the pubic to remember that 15 of the 19 9/11 attackers were from Saudi Arabia. He is now calling for a new, thorough investigation into the extent of Saudi involvement. But more immediately, Lehman is calling for the remaining 28 pages of the redacted 9/11 Commission report to be declassified—a move that could spur along the already partial break in U.S.-Saudi relations.

via http://ift.tt/1sfiApV Tyler Durden

Barbara Boxer Meltdown Exposes Deep Divisions In Democratic Party

"Let's hear it for Hillary Clinton," exclaimed Sen. Barbara Boxer, losing her cool after Bernie Sanders' supporters "bullied" her at the Nevada Democratic convention on Saturday. As BizPacreview reports, Boxer took the Las Vegas stage to raucous boos as her attempt to unify what is obviously as deeply divided a Democratic party as the mainstream would have everyone believe the Republican party is. "I'm for Hillary Clinton and she's for all of us,” she yelled. "Keep on booing and boo yourselves out of this election."

“I grew up in Brooklyn. I’m not afraid of bullies,” The California senator continued…

“We need civility in the Democratic Party. Civility."

The supporters of the Vermont socialist were still angered that their charge had lost the Nevada caucus and were having none of it.

She then tried reverse psychology on the angry crowd.

"When you boo me you’re booing Bernie Sanders. Go ahead. Bernie is my friend. You want to boo Bernie, boo me. Go on, you’re booing Bernie. You’re booing Bernie,” she said.

As the boos rained down on Boxer, her tone became more acrimonious as she began to reprimand the malcontents.

A party divided? It appears very much so. Or a nation disgusted at the cronyism of the status quo? After watching the clip above, it seems rather obvious.

via http://ift.tt/27ppklC Tyler Durden

After An Abysmal First Quarter, Second Quarter Earnings Expectations Are Already Tumbling

The first quarter earnings season is almost over (91% of companies have reported) and the results, while not quite as dire as forecast just over a month ago, still led to the worst quarterly report since the financial crisis, mostly due to a widely expected collapse in energy revenues and earnings, however the big surprise was the disappointing misses in numerous consumer and retail stocks, the result of which was a plunge in the retail index…

 

… even though on Friday the US government reported that April retail sales that were supposedly the strongest in 13 months. The government data was so “good” in fact that even establishment economists such as Stephanie Pomboy of Macromavens did what we have repeatedly done in the past few months when she accused the government of fabricating the reported number by using a major seasonal adjustment gimmick as shown in the video below.

 

In the coming week, we will see the last batch of corporate reports, mostly out of retail stocks, as 12 of the 21 companies in the index scheduled to report earnings next week are retailers.

A quick glimpse at the woeful retail sector which is shaping up to be a continued story of improving internet retailers offset by deteriorating bricks and mortar outlets: of the 13 retail sub-industries in the S&P 500, eight have reported or are expected to report earnings growth, led by the Internet Retail sub-industry. Five of the retail sub-industries have reported or are expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Department Stores sub-industry. The Internet Retail sub-industry reported the highest earnings growth of all 13 retail sub-industries at 143.1%. Four of the five companies in this sub-industry reported earnings growth for the quarter, led by Amazon.com ($1.07 vs. -$0.12)

Some more details on the retail sector bifurcation from Factset:

The Home Improvement Retail sub-industry is projected to report the second highest earnings growth at 12.2%. Both companies in this sub-industry are predicted to report double-digit growth in EPS for the quarter. The mean EPS estimate for Home Depot for Q1 is $1.35, compared to year-ago EPS of $1.16. The mean EPS estimate for Lowe’s Companies for Q1 is $0.85, compared to year-ago EPS of $0.70. Home Depot is scheduled to release results on May 17, while Lowe’s Companies is scheduled to release results on May 18.

 

On the other hand, the Department Stores sub-industry reported the largest year-over-year decline in earnings of all 13 retail sub-industries at -47.8%. All three companies in this sub-industry reported a year-over-year decline in EPS of more than 25% for the quarter: Macy’s ($0.40 vs. $0.56), Kohl’s ($0.31 vs. $0.63), and Nordstrom ($0.29 vs. $0.66).

 

The Hypermarkets & Super Centers sub-industry is projected to report the second highest year-over-year decline in earnings of all 13 retail sub-industries at -14.1%. In this sub-industry, Costco has already reported results for Q1, while Wal-Mart Stores has yet to report results. The mean EPS estimate for Wal-Mart Stores is $0.88, compared to year-ago EPS of $1.03. Wal-Mart Stores is scheduled to release results on May 19.

 

* * *

So with Q1 now mostly in the history books, here is a detailed breakdown of where we stand according to Factset: with 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q1 to date, the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (71%) is above the 5-year average, while the percentage of companies reporting sales above estimates (53%) is below the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4.1% above the estimates. This percentage is slightly below the 5-year average (+4.2%).

The first quarter marked the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. It also marked the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since Q3 2009 (-15.7%).

The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) year-over-year earnings decline for Q1 2016 is -7.1%, which is smaller than the expected earnings decline of -8.8% at the end of the quarter (March 31). Six sectors have reported or are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy, Materials, and Financials sectors. One sector (Consumer Staples) is reporting flat (0%) earnings relative to the year-ago quarter. Three sectors have reported or are reporting year-over-year growth in earnings, led by the Consumer Discretionary and Telecom Services sectors.

The blended sales decline for Q1 2016 is -1.7%, which is larger the estimated sales decline of -1.0% at the end of the quarter (March 31). Four sectors have reported or are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Telecom Services and Health Care sectors. One sector (Financials) is reporting flat (0%) revenues relative to the year-ago quarter. Five sectors have reported or are reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues, led by the Energy, Utilities, and Materials sectors.

 

* * *

And as attention turns toward the second quarter, this is what companies expect as of this moment: at this point in time, 83 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q2 2016. Of these 83 companies, 58 have issued negative EPS guidance and 25 have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is 70% (58 out of 83), which is below the 5-year average of 73%.

In terms of earnings, the estimated decline for Q2 2016 is -4.6%, while the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are 1.4% and 7.5%. For revenues, the estimated decline for Q2 2016 is -1.3%, while the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are 1.8% and 4.6%.

What this means is that while Q1 earnings season may have come out slightly better than expected 45 days ago, it was at the expense of the second quarter, where overall EPS are now expected to drop 4.6% compared to “only” a 2.8% drop as of March 31, more than compensating for the 1.7% pick up in Q1 EPS net of upside surprises. Also, with many starting to focus on peak margins, the fact that sales are expected to decline 1.3% in Q2 (compared to a -0.6% expected decline as of Marc 31) likely means that earnings will be reduced further in the coming months.

It also means that absent a dramatic change, Q2 will be the fifth consecutive quarter in which earnings are set to decline year-over-year, another flashback to the recessionary days of 2008-2009.

The ongoing deterioration in sales and profits is shown best on the two charts below.

We will track when consensus for full year 2016 results shifts from positive to negative EPS growth. We expect that will take place in the coming several weeks months.

Also keep in mind that all of the numbers shown above are on a non-GAAP basis. The GAAP numbers continue to deteriorate at a much faster pace than their pro-forma, adjusted equivalents. According to I/B/E/S data, Q1 GAAP EPS were essentially unchanged from last year at $22.00 (compared to 27 for non-GAAP) which means that on an LTM GAAP vs non-GAAP basis, S&P500 EPS were 88.6, or about 23x LTM P/E compared to 17.5x for the non-GAAP P/E multiple.

In conclusion, the ongoing contraction in both sales and earnings in Q1, now forecast to continue into Q2, means that after a drop in 2015 earnings, the consensus estimates for a 0.9% increase in full year EPS (cut in half from March 31) and 1.5% in revenues, will both be slashed over the coming months, and will almost certainly result in yet another full year of declining top and bottom line corporate results, leaving margin expansion (and stock buybacks) as the only means for future stock market upside.

via http://ift.tt/1qlYmtA Tyler Durden

The Mouths Of Madness – The Grand Delusion Of Central Bankers

Never before has the Bank of Japan done so much to achieve so little. Even after arranging a record stimulus program and reducing a key interest rate to less than zero, Bloomberg reports that the central bank has failed to boost inflation to its goal of 2 percent. Stocks are trading lower than when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expanded his package of asset purchases in 2014. Exports are declining. One measure of bank lending is at a 14-year high, though loan growth is slowing compared with a year ago. While most sovereign bond yields have turned negative, corporate borrowing costs are lagging behind.

And as Bloomberg reports, the following four charts show where the BOJ is succeeding and failing:

CHART 1: While the central bank has succeeded in its aim of pushing down government bond yields, the declines in corporate borrowing costs are starting to run out of steam.

 

CHART 2: The BOJ is falling short of its 2 percent inflation goal, by measures that include and exclude energy costs. Inflation swaps also show investors expect consumer price increases to hold close to zero for the next decade.

 

CHART 3: Kuroda said his policies should underpin stocks and weaken the yen. The opposite is happening.

 

CHART 4: Two key metrics on the health of the economy are headed south.

 

But, as Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum writes, the delusion of central bankers has never been greater…

We recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”.

 

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda attends a news conference at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, December 18, 2015.

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda

The mental state of BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda may be even more precarious though. As Marketwatch reports, he recently gave an interview to German financial newspaper Börsen-Zeitung, in which he inter alia threatened even more BoJ intervention:

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank “can still ease [its] monetary policy substantially” if necessary, in an interview with German financial newspaper Börsen-Zeitung published Wednesday.

This is per se not surprising, although one wonders what Kuroda thinks can possibly be achieved by upping the ante on this:

 

1-BoJ assets vs. the Nikkei

Assets held by the BoJ vs. the Nikkei index – April 1999 = 100 – click to enlarge.

 

We have added the Nikkei Index to the chart of BoJ assets above because inflating stock prices is one of the central bank’s declared goals – its stake in ETFs listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has in the meantime exploded to more than 50% (which we believe is eventually going to create a socialist calculation-type problem).

The results of this mad-cap buying spree are decidedly underwhelming so far. Although the pockets of central banks are of unlimited depth, this is also no big surprise, as central bankers are probably the worst traders in the world.

 

Just You Wait!

However, it gets absolutely hilarious when Kuroda utters the next sentence. He’s not only patting himself on the back for the “achievements” of his policies to date, but offering an economic forecast as well (better put down the coffee):

Mr. Kuroda said the effects of quantitative and qualitative easing, or QQE, along with a negative interest rate are “already very clear” in financial markets, but “we have to wait a few months to see the effects in the real economy,” Börsen-Zeitung reported.

What is “clear” in the financial markets is inter alia that the Nikkei remains down approximately 60% from its peak of 1989 (!) in nominal terms and is down nearly 21% from its most recent interim peak.

The Japanese government bond market meanwhile has basically died. As the BoJ keeps buying up every bond in sight, liquidity in the market has dried up completely – there is no longer a normal price discovery mechanism at work. As Bloomberg reported in March, “Japan’s bond market is close to breaking point”. Amid exploding bond volatility and the repo market plunging into negative interest territory as well, one observer remarked:

“How can the BOJ head for the exit?” Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles & Co., said at an event in Tokyo last week. “If they open the exit door, there’s a fire on the other side.”

 

3-Japan bond vol

Japan’s bond volatility soars to a 17 year high – click to enlarge.

 

Obviously, it is a great time to “do even more”!

But Kuroda’s remark that “we have to wait a few months to see the effects in the real economy” really takes the cake. What planet is this man living on? Dude, we have been waiting for 26 years! The BoJ is reportedly on its 11th iteration of QE over the past two decades (it depends a bit on how one counts the programs). Maybe Kuroda-san shouldn’t have eaten that mushroom soup.

Along the way, every Keynesian and monetarist shibboleth in the book has been implemented in spades. This has leftJapan with the biggest debtberg the world has ever seen – with absolutely nothing to show for it. The following chart of its public debt compared to nominal GDP illustrates the point.

4-debt vs GDP, Japan

Japan’s government debt compared to nominal GDP – what happened to the Keynesian “multiplier”? – click to enlarge.

 

The size of Japan’s public debt is scary all by itself – if one adds the country’s private debt to that, one is looking at a truly monstrous mountain of debt, which by now exceeds 600% of GDP. As John Mauldin has once put it: Japan is a bug waiting for a wind shield.

Conclusion:

It seems Kuroda actually believes what he said back in June of last year:

“I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it’. Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.”

Icarus may be providing the more apt metaphor.

 

Icarus-2

Icarus gets sunburned. His attitude evidently wasn’t sufficiently positive…

 

“Japan might be starting to run out of road a bit on the monetary policy front,” said Andrew Colquhoun, the head of sovereign rankings for the region at Fitch in Hong Kong. That “would tend to undercut one of the sources of support that the sovereign ratings have had.”

via http://ift.tt/1ZUcZQS Tyler Durden

Here We Go Again: Yet Another U.S. Spy Plane Brushes Russian Border

Here we go again. After all of the incidents that have taken place over the last few months between the U.S. and Russia, capped by NATO moving 4,000 troops to the Russian border, one would assume that the antagonizing would stop, at least for the time being.

Then again, the U.S. will do whatever it pleases.

As Sputnik reports, yet another U.S. surveillance plane flew close to the Russian border earlier today, although as of right now it is not clear if it was again intercepted by a Russian flanker.

At least this time it appears that the reconnaissance plane had its transponder on, which Russia had in no uncertain terms suggested takes place if the U.S. plans to continue to fly near its borders.

What the end game is regarding all of this isn’t exactly clear, but one thing is certain, and that is the US continues to agitate Russia on purpose, something we touched upon last week when we noted that Russia has gone so far as to warn of a “nuclear war” in response to the US launch of an ICBM-missile defense shield which was finally activated in Romania after many years of delays this past week.

via http://ift.tt/1XcFTMP Tyler Durden

Only Two Options For The Saudi Sheikhs

By Chris at http://ift.tt/12YmHT5

A few years ago, when living in Phuket, Thailand, a group of Saudis stayed for a week’s holiday in a neighboring villa.

Outside of the religious and social confines of the land of black gold and endless sand, this group made a bunch of spoiled 5-year olds left to run amok in a candy shop without adult supervision look positively angelic.

They were very visible, with an entourage of young Thai “ladies” and a fleet of Land Cruisers to haul them about. On one occasion, after my son witnessed one of the guys buying a beer and throwing a US$100 bill at the waiter, telling him to keep the change, he asked me how come they had so much money to waste.

I explained that Saudi Arabia has two things in abundance: sand and oil. And though the world doesn’t need sand as much as it does oil, they have grown very wealthy selling the oil to the rest of the world.

Depending on whose numbers you take, somewhere between 75% and 85% of Saudi Arabia’s revenues come from oil exports, and fully 90% of revenues come from oil and gas. Clearly the Kingdom is dependent on oil revenues in the same way that an infant is dependent on its mother’s milk. And unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few years, you’ll have noticed that the price of oil has collapsed.

Crude Oil

Now in a “normal” market the reduced revenues would manifest in a weaker local currency as demand for Riyals declines.

But governments and central bankers don’t believe in “normal” markets and so the Saudi riyal has been pegged at 3.75 to the US dollar since 1986.

It’s not hard to see a situation where Saudi Arabia may very well be forced to de-peg the currency to curb the fall in the country’s FX reserves should low oil prices persist.

Let’s look at some of the potential catalysts for this.

Could Yellen Kill The Peg?

While the Sheiks contemplate how to deal with their predicament from diamond encrusted cars and golden toilets, across the pond we find that monetary policy in the US has been tightening albeit modestly. What’s important to understand is that in order for Saudi Arabia to maintain its currency peg it needs to follow FED monetary policy.

By following Yellen the Saudis land up sacrificing growth, and by diverging they sacrifice FX reserves in order to maintain the peg. Clearly neither are attractive propositions. According to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), for every 100 basis point increase in the Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) this leads to a 90 basis point decline in GDP in the subsequent quarter, and a further 95 basis points in the following quarter.

Falling GDP in a country where over 60% of the population are under 30 brings about its own set of problems. Political instability in the Kingdom has been rising and the royal family is increasingly fighting for survival. After all, they had the experience of watching the Arab Spring unfold on their flat screens.

If, on the other hand, they opt not to follow the stumpy lady, the gap between interest rates in the US and Saudi Arabia will be quickly exploited by people like me as arbitrage opportunities open up.

So this is what we’re all looking at right now: SAMA will have to buy riyals in the open market by selling from its hoard of dollar reserves. Any rise in interest rates in the US will mean SAMA will have to further deplete reserves.

Saudi Arabia Reserves

As I have mentioned before, all pegs eventually break. The question is one of timing.

How long do the Sheiks have under current oil prices?

The falling oil price since mid-2014, has significantly reduced Saudi Arabian revenues. So much so that the scorecard for 2015 showed a deficit of $98bn, and SAMA is estimating a further $87bn deficit this year.

Saudi Arabia Budget

The Saudi government have been funding this deficit by drawing down on forex reserves, spending $132bn in the year to January of this year. With current prices and current reserves they can easily last another 4 years.

Some things I’m thinking about:

  • Iran will bring additional supply to a market in surplus. Saudi Arabia will be forced to keep the pedal to the metal on production, not wanting to lose any market share. And so I’m not convinced we’ll see oil rising in the next 12 to 24 months.
  • We’re in a US dollar bull market as I’ve stated here, here, and here and many other times. Dollar strength will put pressure on the price of oil and thus revenues to the Kingdom.

This could certainly get interesting and traders have begun speculating on a de-pegging from the dollar.

Saudi Riyal

Should low oil prices persist for the next 3 to 4 years, Saudi Arabia will be forced to decide whether it prefers to either cut the production or loosen the currency peg.

I could be wrong but I feel like it’s too early to play this trade and the costs of entry are not astoundingly cheap. Saudi Arabia has almost no debt and can easily access the credit markets. With debt to GDP of just 2% they have a lot of room to move. Coupled with the upcoming partial listing of Aramco their ability to tap international markets for capital is certainly a factor I’m not sure all currency speculators are considering.

What is worth watching are neighbour states. While Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE all have dollar pegs, they too have vast central bank reserves and sovereign wealth funds. But what looks pretty precarious to me are Oman and Bahrain who could run out of reserves in less than three years. Both these countries have resorted to issuing debt to extend the longevity of their reserves but issuing dollar denominated debt which is essentially asset underwritten by the price of oil in an environment of persistently low oil prices certainly looks like a precarious bet to be making.

Investors looking for asymmetry in markets will do well paying attention to the currency markets, and existing dollar pegged currencies in particular. As I mentioned before… all pegs break, and the returns that can be made in such situations are of the life changing variety.

– Chris

“If Saudi Arabia was without the cloak of American protection, I don’t think it would be around.” – Donald Trump

============

Liked this article? Don’t miss our future articles and podcasts, and

get accessto free subscriber-only content here.

============

via http://ift.tt/1rNsv6b Capitalist Exploits