Category: zerohedge

While President Biden joined former presidents Obama, Bush and Clinton at 9/11 services held at the World Trade Center and Shanksville, Pennsylvania – a group which presided over the deaths of countless Middle Easterners over 20 years of undeclared “wars on terror” that benefited the US Homeland Security-Industrial Complex and a few others, former President Trump took to the streets of New York to shake hands with first responders.

It was quite the juxtaposition to say the least – with former President Bush pushing the ‘domestic terrorism‘ and ‘angry America’ narrative during a speech in Shanksville (echoing Klaus Schwab), and images of Biden pulling down his mask to shout at someone…

Vs. President Trump being greeted by working men and women in uniform who won’t go home to mansions after the ‘ceremonies’ are over.

SCOOP: NY firefighters break out in applause as President Trump makes surprise visit today pic.twitter.com/FBEhLxBbnf

— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) September 11, 2021

Narrative fail pic.twitter.com/gWdZdODW6w

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 11, 2021

More via Dan Scavino:

We can’t imagine it would go as well for Biden and the other former presidents.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The latest annual report from the Social Security Trustees showed the insecurity of social security.

According to the July 2021 snapshot from the Social Security Administration, nearly 70-million people receive a monthly benefit check, of which 51.3 million are over the age of 65.

Social Security provides the majority of income to most elderly Americans. The system provides at least 50 percent of incomes for about half of seniors. For roughly 1 in 4 seniors, it provides at least 90 percent of total incomes. But, that dependency ratio is directly tied to the financial insolvency of the vast majority of Americans. According to a CNBC report:

“Morning Consult found that nearly 18% of adults with an annual income of $50,000 or less have no savings, while some 34% have enough to cover just three months of expenses. Another 11% would deplete savings within six months. Only 10% of that income group has more than a year’s worth of cash.

Higher-income households are only somewhat better prepared, the survey found. Among those with annual incomes of $50,000 to $100,000, about 18% said they have between three months and six months of savings. About 25% said their cash would last less than three months, and 6% had set aside nothing at all. None of those questioned in that income group had more than a year’s worth of savings.”

Such is a huge problem that will impact boomers in retirement.

The Insecurity Of Social Security

Given the financial insecurity of the bottom 90% of Americans, the dependency on social security is problematic. Here are some facts from the latest SSI report from CRFB:

• Social Security is Only 13 Years from Insolvency. Social Security cannot guarantee full benefits to current retirees under current law. The Trustees project the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete its reserves by 2033. The Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) trust fund will be insolvent by 2057. The theoretical combined trust funds will exhaust their reserves by 2034. Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries will face a 22% benefit cut.

Source: CRFB

• Social Security will run cash deficits of $2.4 trillion over the next decade. Such is the equivalent of 2.3% of taxable payroll or 0.8% of (GDP). Social Security’s 75-year actuarial imbalance totals 3.54% of taxable payroll. That is 1.2% of GDP or nearly $21 trillion in present value terms.

• Finances Are Deteriorating. Social Security’s finances worsened over the last year. Current projections show Insolvency occuring a year earlier, and the 75-year actuarial deficit is over 10 percent larger. The 75-year shortfall is nearly 85% larger than orginally estimated in 2010.

The problem is evident. Given the large and growing dependency on social security, benefits will get cut for recipients if Congress fails to act. As noted by the Center Of Budget & Policy, social security for many retirees is the difference between living in poverty or not.

Demographics Are Destiny

One of the primary contributors to the insecurity of social security is demographics.

In 1940, the life expectancy of a 65-year-old was just 14 years. Today it is over 20 years. By 2035, the number of Americans 65 and older will increase from approximately 56 million today to over 78 million.

The problem for social security is that in 1940, nearly 16-workers paid into the program for each person receiving benefits. Currently, that ratio is just 2.8 workers for each Social Security beneficiary. By 2035, that ratio will decrease to 2.3 covered workers for each beneficiary.

“Social Security will see negative cash flow of $147 billion this year. The deficits will keep adding up as the population ages as fewer workers pay into the system relative to the number of retirees collecting benefits.” – Reason

Such increases in the number of retirees and lower birth rates decrease the relative number of workers. However, this decline in the “support ratio” is not just domestic, but global.

“Recently released official U.S. birth data for 2020 showed births fell continuously for more than a decade. The ‘total fertility rate,’ is a measure constructed from the data to estimate the average total number of children born. That rate fell from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020. It is now well below 2.1, the value considered to be ‘replacement fertility,’ which is the rate needed for the population to replace itself without immigration.“

However, the problem isn’t just the “replacement rate” of workers paying into the system. But also the structural change to the workforce itself.

A Structural Employment Problem

The structural shift in employment is due to technology and automation. Yet, it is an overarching problem most give little attention to.

While the mainstream media focuses their attention on the daily distribution of economic data points, there is a hidden depression running along the country’s underbelly. While reported unemployment is heading back to historically lower levels, there is a swelling mass of uncounted individuals. These are individuals assumed to have either given up looking for work or are working multiple part-time jobs. 

The chart strips out the argument of retiring baby boomers, who ironically, aren’t retiring. Such is not because they don’t want to retire, but because they can’t afford to.

These higher levels of under and unemployment apply downward pressure on wages even as work hours increase. Real wage declines are evident as companies opt for increasing productivity, continued outsourcing, and streamlining employment to protect corporate profit margins. However, as the cost of living is affected by the rising food, energy, and health care prices without a compensatory increase in incomes, more families are forced to turn to assistance to survive.

Without government largesse, many individuals would live on the street. The chart above shows all the government “welfare” programs and current levels to date. The black line represents the sum of the underlying sub-components. Thus, while unemployment insurance did taper off after its sharp rise post-pandemic, social security, Medicaid, Veterans’ benefits, and other social benefits continue to rise.

Importantly, these social benefits are critical to the average person’s survival as they make up more than 25% of real disposable personal incomes.

With 1/4 of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising the economy continues to struggle. Recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.

The Social Security Insecurity Endgame

As stated above, the biggest problem for Social Security, and the U.S. in general, comes when Social Security begins paying out more in benefits than it receives in taxes. Then, as the cash surplus gets depleted, Social Security can not pay full benefits from its tax revenues alone.

Already, welfare programs in the U.S. are consuming ever-growing amounts of general revenue dollars to meet obligations.As noted recently,mandatory spending already consumes more than 100% of Federal tax revenues.

“In the fiscal year 2019, the Federal Government spent $4.4 trillion, amounting to 21 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Of that $4.4 trillion, federal revenues financed only $3.5 trillion. The remaining $984 billion came from debt issuance. As the chart below shows, three major areas of spending make up most of the budget.”

Think about that for a minute. In 2019, 75% of all expenditures went to social welfare and interest on the debt. Those payments required $3.3 Trillion of the $3.5 Trillion (or 95%) of the total revenue collected. Given the decline in economic activity during 2020, those numbers become markedly worse. For the first time in U.S. history, the Federal Government will have to issue debt to cover the mandatory spending.“

Eventually, either the benefits will get slashed, or the rest of the government will have to shrink to accommodate the “welfare state.” It is improbable the latter will happen.

Conclusion

Demographic trends are reasonably easy to forecast and predict. Each year from now until 2035, we will see successive rounds of boomers reach the 62-year-old threshold. Two problems are resulting from these consecutive crops of boomers heading into retirement.

The first is that each boomer has not produced enough children to replace themselves, which leads to a decline in the number of taxpaying workers. It takes about 25 years to grow a new taxpayer. We can estimate, with surprising accuracy, how many people born in a particular year will retire. The retirees of 2070 were born in 2003, and we can see and count them today.

The second problem is the employment problem. The decline in economic prosperity is the result of four decades of misguided policy:

• Increases in non-productive debt and deficits,

• Reduction in savings,

• Declining income growth due to productivity increases; and,

• The shift from a manufacturing to service based society that generates lower levels of taxable incomes in the future.

“The more time that passes, the heavier the lift will be. According to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for low deficits and sustainable entitlement programs, delaying action until insolvency hits in 2034 will make the needed tax increases or benefit reductions about 25 percent larger than if Congress acted today. In either case, the changes will be seriously disruptive to Americans’ retirement plans and financial security.” – Reason

The entire social support framework faces an inevitable conclusion where no wishful thinking will change that outcome. The question is whether our elected leaders will start making the changes necessary sooner, while they can get done by choice or later when forced upon us.

 Post Views: 296

2021/09/10

Instead of just reopening, NYC seems hell bent on keeping its workers and businesses on the Covid-stimulus government dole. The city is distributing a portion of its $5.9 billion in federal aid to cab drivers, artists and restaurants.

The city is one of the first to distribute aid from President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan, according to Bloomberg. Last week the city published a more than 70 page report laying out its plans for the funds.

Those plans include $2.27 billion for the city to replace lost revenue after the city shut down.

The report read: “New York City’s Recovery for All plan prioritizes vaccinating against COVID-19 to jump-start the recovery, using the City government to fight inequality, building a fairer economy, helping children recover emotionally and academically from the impact of the pandemic, strengthening community-based solutions to public safety, and fighting the climate crisis.”

$1.45 billion in funds will expand the state’s healthcare system, which will make Covid vaccines more available and will expand testing sites.

Another portion of the cash will go to 1,800 grants of $5,000 each for artists and taxi medallion owners. It’s also going toward a program that will encourage outdoor dining, that starts in 2023. 

$1.51 billion will be used to “support small businesses”, according to the report. We wonder if Bill de Blasio ever thought about supporting small businesses by actually allowing them to fully re-open, or if his plans are simply to paper over the entire NYC economy with printed paper.

Finally, the city put aside $52.5 million for its tourism industry, which makes up 376,800 jobs and suffered from a 67% decline in visitors to the state in 2020. 

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top U.S. public health official, said that a new study regarding so-called natural immunity following COVID-19 infection is provoking discussion among government experts.

The real-world study, conducted by Israeli researchers, found that previous COVID-19 infection confers better protection against infection and hospitalization than COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was asked Friday about the research in the context of convincing people who have natural immunity, or recovered from COVID-19, to get vaccinated.

“I get calls all the time people say, ‘I’ve already had COVID, I’m protected.’ And now the study says maybe even more protected than the vaccine alone. Should they also get the vaccine? How do you make the case to them?” Dr. Sanjay Gupta asked Fauci during an appearance on CNN.

“I don’t have a really firm answer for you on that,” Fauci responded.

“That’s something that we’re going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response. The one thing that paper from Israel didn’t tell you is whether or not—as high as the protection is with natural infection—what’s the durability compared to the durability of a vaccine? So it is conceivable that you got infected, you’re protected, but you may not be protected for an indefinite period of time,” he continued.

“So I think that is something that we need to sit down and discuss seriously because you very appropriately pointed out, it is an issue, and there could be an argument for saying what you said.”

Some experts who have studied the matter have expressed confusion as to why vaccination efforts are not focused on those who have not gotten a shot and have not recovered from COVID-19.

“We’re trying to update policy such that people who have recovered have the same privileges and access as people who are vaccinated,” Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, clinical professor of preventive medicine and medicine at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine, told The Epoch Times previously.

The Israel findings, because they’re based on real-world data, even led Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, to call for natural immunity to be part of policy discussions.

“The balance of the evidence demonstrates that natural immunity confers a durable protection,” Gottlieb said during a recent television appearance.

Official guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges people have some level of immunity after COVID-19 recovery. But the agency still recommends the vast majority of Americans get a COVID-19 vaccine, asserting the protection is even better when combining natural immunity and a jab.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC’s director, last month pointed to a study conducted by CDC and Kentucky researchers that suggested vaccines actually provide better protection than previous infection.

“These data further indicate that COVID-19 vaccines offer better protection than natural immunity alone and that vaccines, even after prior infection, help prevent reinfections,” the agency said in a statement.

The waiting game is getting longer for container ships entering the largest U.S. ports for transpacific shipping, that being ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. 

Ships at anchor and waiting time to berth have jumped sharply across the twin ports. Bloomberg cites new data from both ports, compiled by Wabtec’s Port Optimizer supply chain platform, that shows 55 vessels were moored or drifting offshore waiting to offload cargo as of Friday. Just two weeks ago, readers may recall that congestion outside the busiest U.S. gateway for trade with Asia was 40. The average wait jumped almost one day, from 7.6 in late August to 8.5. 

Port congestion is getting worse as peak shipping season is underway. This week, Los Angeles and Long Beach officials were forced to shift vessels to an overflow space because the main waiting areas were at full capacity. There are 17 container ships in overflow zones. 

The massive port backlog means 375,000 20-foot containers are waiting offshore and can only mean more supply chain disruptions for U.S. importers. 

Recent Covid outbreaks have exacerbated delays along key transpacific shipping lanes at Asian ports, such as the recent shutdown of the Ningbo Meishan Container Terminal (the third-largest container port in the world after Shanghai and Singapore), also referred to as the Meishan Terminal, in China, due to positive Covid test results. The terminal has since reopened but added to further congestion in the transpacific shipping network. 

The core problem with congested waterways, high wait times, and skyrocketing transportation costs are that it fuels an inflation surge that pushes producer prices and consumer prices higher, discrediting the Federal Reserve’s “transitory” inflation narrative. 

Fed members don’t seem too worried about raging inflation as it eats away wage gains of the average joe and jane. These officials are too busy day trading stocks than worrying about what’s happening on main street. 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We know you’re all just poor corrupt officials, but bleating excuses won’t save you from the karmic payoff.

The Federal Reserve can be summed up in two famous lines from the classic film Casablanca in which the corrupt police official Renault is ordered to close Rick’s cafe.

Renault: I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.

[The croupier hands Renault a wad of cash]: Your winnings, sir.

The Fed is totally, completely, fatally corrupt. Only those being handed their ill-gotten gains defend the Fed. Everyone who is isn’t totally, completely, fatally corrupt wants America’s financial Politburo tossed on the bonfire of history.

The Fed’s response to its highest-level officials minting millions in insider trading is as transparent as Captain Renault’s shock: only when the putrid corruption filling every nook and cranny of the Fed seeps out under the door does the Fed suddenly announce it’s shocked that insider trading is going on in here.

Any agency with the faintest wisp of integrity would claw back all the trading gains of every Fed official and employee, but since the Fed is totally, completely, fatally corrupt, the Politiburo’s mega-millionaires are handed their winnings like the comically corrupt Captain Renault.

At least the fictional Captain Renault had a sense of self-deprecating humor: at one point he declares, “I’m only a poor corrupt official.” Chairman Powell, here’s your cue: go ahead, say it: “I’m only a poor corrupt official.”

But the fatal corruption of America’s financial Politburo isn’t unique; it’s of a piece with the rest of America’s fatally corrupt status quo, from the mega-millionaires in Congress minting millions in stocks (here’s looking at you, Ms. Pelosi) to the Big Pharma parasites who evade responsibility for killing tens of thousands of Americans with their falsely labeled medications (non-addictive, huh), the entirety of America’s ruling elite is totally, completely, fatally corrupt, from the billions collected by contractors in Afghanistan to the corporate insiders minting billions with stock buy-backs–a form of fraud that was illegal back before America became a moral cesspool.

Kleptocrats around the world are taking lessons from the Fed and the rest of America’s corrupt ruling elite: how to launder money? Easy–open opaque LLC accounts in South Dakota. America is the world’s best protected tax haven, because it’s designed for America’s own corrupt elite.

The cost of corruption is a bit higher in America, but you get what you pay for: world-class corruption costs more. Here is America, a few million in lobbying and campiagn contributions can buy pretty much anything: you need a tax loophole involving some obscure life insurance ploy? Pony up the cash and you got it on a silver platter.

Are loopholes available to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys? Of course not. Our designated role is limited to making monthly debt payments, paying taxes and distracting ourselves with binge-everything.

The higher you go up the food chain, the more profound the corruption. The croupier at Rick’s doesn’t have many opportunities for corruption; skimming anything will quickly lead to termination and prosecution. But at the top in America, the opportunities for corrupt gains, skims, scams, thinly veiled bribes and insider trading are essentially limitless. As Cato the Elder observed: “Thieves of private property pass their lives in chains; thieves of public property in riches and luxury.”

America’s corrupt elite is blind to the outcome of their skyrocketing wealth: skyrocketing inequality. And as a result, they’re blind to what will wash away their putrid palace, for inequality is a systemic toxin that brings down even the greatest empires.

Dear corrupt Fed and corrupt ruling elite: the banquet of consequences of your corruption is being served. 

We know you’re all just poor corrupt officials, but bleating excuses won’t save you from the karmic payoff.

Who benefited from this Fed-inflated bubble?

Who benefited from this Fed-inflated bubble?

The answer: billionaires and the top 0.1%, with a few dregs draining down to the top 5%:

*  *  *

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Members of Congress, their staff, and federal court system employees are exempt from the Biden administration’s new vaccine mandates, according to Newsweek.

On Thursday, Biden issued two executive orders mandating that federal workers, federal contractors, and workers for companies with more than 100 employees take the Covid-19 jab or face unemployment and fines.

While Biden’s order applies to employees of the executive branch, the House and Senate are part of the separate legislative branch, and of course the courts are part of the judicial branch – so the new orders don’t apply.

“Building on the President’s announcement in July to strengthen safety requirements for unvaccinated federal workers, the President has signed an Executive Order to take those actions a step further and require all federal executive branch workers to be vaccinated,” reads Biden’s COVID ‘action plan’ titled “Path Out of the Pandemic.”

“The President also signed an Executive Order directing that this standard be extended to employees of contractors that do business with the federal government,” the plan continues. “As part of this effort, the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Indian Health Service, and the National Institute of Health will complete implementation of their previously announced vaccination requirements that cover 2.5 million people.”

The New York Times reported on Thursday that the executive order doesn’t apply to those who work for Congress or the federal courts, citing White House officials.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said at a press conference on April 29 that the House couldn’t require members to be vaccinated. Video clips of those remarks gained renewed attention online following Biden’s announcement.

“So—so here is the thing. We are—we cannot require someone to be vaccinated. That’s just not what we can do. It is a matter of privacy to know who is or who isn’t,” Pelosi said.

“I can’t go to the Capitol Physician and say, ‘Give me the names of people who aren’t vaccinated, so I can go encourage them or make it known to others to encourage them to be vaccinated.’ So we can’t—we can’t do that,” she said. –Newsweek

On Friday, Pelosi’s office reiterated to Newsweek that her April 29 remarks were “referring to the institution in which she serves,” adding “She’s saying she cannot force Members to be vaccinated, which is true.”

How’s this going to ‘protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated’ on Capitol Hill?

“We’re going to protect vaccinated workers from unvaccinated co-workers.”

Biden announced the Department of Labor will require employers with 100 or more employees to require shots or testing Thursday evening https://t.co/0LPOxr9bNQ pic.twitter.com/cDH7ndhdIx

— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) September 10, 2021

Authored (extremely satirically) by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

Okay, okay, let’s all cool our jets here for a minute. I know we’re all worked up about the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, and that’s all well and good. But let’s not let our emotions cloud our vision and let today’s commemorations cause us to forget the real horror we must all remain focused on: the Capitol riot this past January.

It is true that losing nearly 3,000 American lives to weaponized passenger jets was pretty bad, but I think we can all agree that this pales in comparison to the earth-shattering terror we all experienced when watching footage of wingnuts wander aimlessly around the Capitol Building for a few hours.

Serious experts agree.

In a July appearance on MSNBC’s ReidOut with Joy Reid, former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd said he felt the Capitol riot was “much worse” than 9/11 and that this is the “most perilous point in time” since the beginning of the American Civil War.

“To me, though there was less loss of life on January 6, January 6 was worse than 9/11, because it’s continued to rip our country apart and get permission for people to pursue autocratic means, and so I think we’re in a much worse place than we’ve been,” Dowd said. “I think we’re in the most perilous point in time since 1861 in the advent of the Civil War.”

“I do too,” Reid replied.

Not to be outdone, Lincoln Project co-founder Steve Schmidt cited Dowd’s claim but added that not only was January 6 worse than 9/11, but it was actually going to kill more Americans somehow, even counting all those killed in the US wars which ensued from the 9/11 attacks.

“He couldn’t be more right,” Schmidt said at a town hall for the Lincoln Project.

“The 1/6 attack for the future of the country was a profoundly more dangerous event than the 9/11 attacks. And in the end, the 1/6 attacks are likely to kill a lot more Americans than were killed in the 9/11 attacks, which will include the casualties of the wars that lasted 20 years following.”

Popular #Resistance pundit Majid Padellan tweeted back in February, “I am traumatized all over again while watching this video recap. Don’t try to tell me January 6th was NOT worse than 9/11.”

“I would like to see January 6th burned into the American mind as firmly as 9/11 because it was that scale of a shock to the system,” said Washington Post columnist George Will on ABC’s “This Week” roundtable back in May.

Huffington Post’s senior White House correspondent S.V. Dáte asserted on Twitter that this year’s Capitol riot was worse than the September 11 attacks because “The 9/11 terrorists and Osama bin Laden never threatened the heart of the American experiment. The 1/6 terrorists and Donald Trump absolutely did exactly that. Trump continues that effort today.”

Dáte added that the events of 1/6 were “1000 percent worse” than if 9/11 hijackers had succeeded in crashing a Boeing 757 into the Capitol Building twenty years ago.

1000 percent worse. https://t.co/0jS4r1S2uk

— S.V. Dáte (@svdate) May 25, 2021

So that settles it, then: QAnoners meandering around a government building is far, far worse than thousands of people being killed in fiery explosions.

It’s a good thing we’ve got such sane, level-headed people on such prominent platforms instructing us on how to think about important events, because otherwise this perspective might never have even occurred to us. Especially since the FBI found no evidence that Trump and his allies were involved in coordinating the 1/6 riot and very little evidence of any centralized planning of any kind, and since we now know that the only person claimed to have been killed by the rioters actually died of natural causes, and since many other claims about the Capitol riot have been soundly debunked.

So now that we’ve cleared that up, let’s not let 9/11 stop us from screaming about 1/6 for all eternity, as loud as our lungs will allow. It’s important we remain rational here.

*  *  *

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It’s official: Goldman – the bank that effectively runs the New York Fed – is now virtually convinced (70% odds as this moment vs 45% previously) that not only is tapering a done deal, but that we know when it is coming.

As the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius writes following Friday’s Wall Street Journal article authored by official Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos and which cites Federal Reserve officials preparing for a “November reduction,” Goldman is increasing its subjective odds of a November taper announcement:

We now see 70% odds of a November announcement (vs. 45% previously) and 10% odds of a December announcement (vs. 35% previously); we continue to see a 20% chance that growth risks related to the Delta variant delay the tapering announcement into 2022.

Furthermore, contrary to expectations that the Fed may bring forward an official announcement to September, the article notes that a September taper announcement is “unlikely.” The article also referenced “plans taking shape” that involve a taper that could end in mid-2022. Accordingly, Goldman now expects that a $15bn monthly pace of tapering that concludes next July is the most likely alternative to the bank’s standing forecast of a $15bn per meeting pace that concludes next September, or visually:

From Goldman’s late Friday note:

1. Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Fed Officials Prepare for November Reduction in Bond Buying.” The article went on to state that officials “will seek to forge agreement” on November as the beginning of “scaling back” accommodation, and it subsequently cited several public remarks about tapering from Chairman Powell and other members of the leadership. Reflecting this, we are increasing our subjective odds of a November taper announcement. We now see 70% odds of a November announcement (vs. 45% previously) and 10% odds of a December announcement (vs. 35% previously); we continue to see a 20% chance that growth risks related to the Delta variant delay the tapering announcement into 2022. The article also confirmed that a September taper announcement is “unlikely.”
2. The article also referenced “plans taking shape” that involve a tapering pace that would conclude “by the middle of next year,” and it suggested one possible path involving a $15bn monthly pace of reduction—as compared to our standing forecast of $15bn per meeting ($10bn UST/ $5bn MBS). Coupled with public endorsements of a similar or “fast” taper timeline from FOMC members Bostic, Rosengren, Mester, Kaplan, Harker, George, Waller, and Bullard, we believe a $15bn monthly pace of tapering that concludes next July is the most likely alternative to our standing forecast. We view this as a close call, and the article notes that “officials still have to iron out the exact pace.”

Just two things to add here: with the Fed now set to taper in November and then shrink the balance sheet by $15BN per month, and it really has no choice with hyperinflation now taking hold in some sectors of the economy, it will have to make sure that covid delta, mu or whatever is not a factor in the immediate vicinity of the decision. Which means that in the coming month expect a dramatic reduction in the overblown media frenzy over the delta variant, lockdowns and so on, as continued covid panic will only lead to questions why the Fed is tapering at a time when the pandemic is still raging. Of course, that doesn’t mean that we won’t have a new resurgence in the future, which brings us to the second point namely that…

As Bank of America so impolitely put it back in June, everyone knows that the Fed will stop tapering as soon the S&P drops 10%. The only question is how long after the Fed tapering begins will the market tumble and force the Fed to reverse and/or start buying single stocks and ETFs.

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I’ve burned a lot of bridges in my life I didn’t intend to. To describe me as volatile and opinionated is a kindness.

On the best of days I’m barely fit for human consumption.

Looking back my life can best be described as a series of bad first impressions interrupted by moments of social competence.

This happens not because I don’t care about what people think or feel, but because I care too much. I see too much. And in my zeal, I put off people when all I want is for everyone else to see what I see.

It’s been a hard-fought lesson to learn that confrontation is not only a poor persuasion technique, it’s aggressively counter-productive.

I’m definitely still working on this.

At the same time, however, those that know me well know that when I’m confrontational, I’m engaged. I’m negotiating for a different outcome, albeit doing it badly. All my Italian flamboyance and bombast isn’t anger, it’s frustration.

In print it may be funny or inspiring but in person it’s simply scary and rude. I’ve mellowed with age, certainly. Thirty years of marriage to the greatest woman in the world will teach you a few things…

…even old dogs like me.

But there is always a limit in every negotiation. There is a moment when all the frustration melts away and becomes anger. Cold, hard, implacable anger. The energy to negotiate dissipates because there is no possible solution.

In this respect I’m just like my dad. We knew the bombast came from shock and processing the situation.

However, when he was most disappointed with me, when I felt the most regret for what I’d done, was when he was speechless.

In the months leading up to the 2020 election I was negotiating in my writing. Months of articles and podcasts detailing my anxiety, pleading with The Davos Crowd to not do what they ultimately did.

Don’t go there, I kept saying, you do not understand what comes next if you do.

On election night they went there. I wrote about it.

For weeks I’ve been saying I hope Trump’s performance is strong enough and his coattails long enough to preclude the Democrats and The Davos Crowd from trying to pull off the theft of the election.

That they would see the magnitude of the problem in front of them and be stopped short by little things like math.

And then realize that even if they did try and cheat it would be so transparent that nothing good for them would be gained by it. But they didn’t listen.

They didn’t listen. Pulling the theft off only emboldened them to push harder. Their plans to destroy the world and “Build Back Better” wouldn’t be stopped. They were on a roll. They’d pulled off the biggest psy-op in history with COVID-9/11 and now they’d just stolen the most important election in the world.

Even if they had private misgivings, in poker terms they were “pot committed.“

It’s clear now they truly felt they could bully the pot with their immense stack of chips.

My horror on election night was brief. Alone, staring at my screen in disbelief, I very quickly went from shock to anger.

And I got very quiet.

At around 2am Tuesday evening I realized that they were actually going to do this and I texted a friend the next morning. His response?

“Civil war it is then.”

He got very quiet as well. Since then a lot of conservatives and libertarians have gotten loud because they still think there’s room to negotiate.

I told us then to become #Ungovernable and not wait for the vaccines. I burned bridges publicly confronting those who didn’t see what I saw. Had we done the right thing then we wouldn’t be here today.

Then on January 6th, Donald Trump made the strategic error to have them express their frustration at the Capitol. Davos used it to their advantage. Many are still being held as ‘domestic terrorists.’

After another eight months of rolling out their bio-medical terror state around the West and systemically silencing all rational (and some irrational) opposition to it, they pushed another big stack of chips into the pot.

Yesterday President Biden told the world he’d run out of patience with those unwilling to take an experimental gene therapy.

BREAKING: President Biden says his ‘patience is wearing thin’ with unvaccinated Americans:

“What more is there to wait for? What more to do you need to see? We’ve been patient, but our patience is wearing thin and your refusal has cost all of us.” pic.twitter.com/XcALP2MrQB

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) September 9, 2021

Biden’s speech and mandates are an open call to the very thing I said right after the election, Civil War. He’s trying radicalize the unvaxxed to become violent. To push back at the bully pushing them.

These are the words of a bully and a tyrant, no doubt. They are also the words of a senile old man overseeing a decrepit den of soulless emotionally-stunted vampires terrified of losing potency.

They are, ultimately, the ravings of a group of oligarchs so saturated with their own power and decadence that their actions now look more like the tantrums of spoiled, narcissistic children rather than sober and competent managers of a society.

Since they are acting like children, we should treat them as such.

They believe there are “Rules for thee, but not for me.” Anarcho-Tyranny.

Biden played the Exasperated Parent card with this ‘patience is thin’ rhetoric. He’s appealing to those still terrified by a shadow-play on their tablets and screens to scapegoat the unvaxxed and have half the country turn on the other half.

But it played to the growing contingent of Quiet Men like a geriatric Emperor of Ice Cream barking orders at a funeral for a society that has grown “cold and dumb” through abuse and neglect.

Let be be finale of seem.
The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

— WALLACE STEVENS

Biden is a senile old man, corrupt and clueless. He’s unfit for purpose and unfit to rule.

He’s illegitimate, incompetent and incoherent.

I can list his attributes all day long. It won’t change anything. So what will?

Bullies are always daring you to throw the first punch. They need to justify their next act of violence against you. Meeting their violence with violence is acting out of frustration. They want us barking. They want us reacting to their false reality. Don’t.

They’ve fed off our outrage. Now starve them with our silence.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy on Biden’s vaccine mandates: “This is ridiculous and unenforceable. If there was ever a case for the 25th Amendment…”

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) September 10, 2021

There is nothing they can threaten us with. These edicts are hilarious, desperate and unenforceable.

All their power, all their strength is irrelevant in the face of angry men who simply say, “No.”

That big pile of chips in the center of the table? An opportunity, not a barrier.

There are a thousand ways to beat a bully by not giving him what he wants, control.

This isn’t about the vaccine. It never was. The only public health crisis now is a public mental health crisis.

The people who’ve been broken by the COVID-9/11 terror campaign have their own issues to work out. They can be forgiven their terror but it’s time for the grown-ups to talk. The children can be excused from the table.

So, the opposite of their hysteria is needed.

They don’t need a punch in the mouth, they need therapy. No more negotiating with facts. They are immune to facts.

What they are not immune to is a quiet, dismissive, if not exasperated, “No.” The kind of quiet disappointment my father used to shame me into maturation.

Nothing will drive them more insane with rage.

Calm, assertive statements of purpose. No histrionics. No court challenges. No media conferences.

No marches on the Capitol like they are trying to create the illusion of by seeding the idea into the media.

This is what they want you to do. Then they can justify to the self-righteously vaxxed that you deserve internment camps. That you are the terrorists.

Just exude, “No.”

Because they’re only recourse then is more violence. And every act of violence delegitimizes them further.

Biden declared war on 80+ million Americans and threatened Governors of sovereign states with intervention or removal.

If the Federales comes to Tallahassee, Gov. DeSantis should quietly meet them with force and arrest them. The Supremacy clause in the Constitution is irrelevant when the government is in violation of it.

Biden tried to light a fire beneath the people who have screamed for three generations, “My body, my choice,” “Health care is a basic human right,” and “Keep your laws off my body,” hoping they will be his Brown Shirts and torch our society rather than face the ugly truth of their hypocrisy.

What he did was make a whole lot of people get very, very quiet.

The rage of those self-righteous hypocrites will not be slaked until they burn the COVID-9/11 heretics at the stake because they cannot accept responsibility for their emotions.

They have to pour their vitriol and envy onto us because they can’t face their evil.

So, for example, instead of arguing Universal Basic Income is socialism (even though it is), we should simply counter-offer with Universal Basic Therapy… for them.

It would be far cheaper and a price I would gladly pay at this point to keep my society civil.

These same people think Oregon should erect trade barriers with Texas over its abortion law while believing Biden can force people to share their medical history with any random person who asks for it.

These people aren’t worthy of your time.

They are abusers and blasphemers. Braggards and bullshit artistes.

And they have purposefully broken our society because they can’t face the man in the mirror, covering him up with an embroidered mask to salvage what’s left of their individuality.

Our task now is shining a light on this, not in anger, but in pity. For decades they mistook our silence for assent.

It is past time we disabuse them of that notion.

Just like we should pity our senile Emperor of Ice Cream for thinking he’s the president and that anything he says carries the force of, well, anything.

Let the lamp affix its beam.
The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

— WALLACE STEVENS

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