Tag: finance

Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraACarter.com,

Free speech social media app Parler returned Monday with new computer servers, according to Interim CEO Mark Meckler (a leading voice in the Tea Party movement).

“When Parler was taken offline in January by those who desire to silence tens of millions of Americans, our team came together, determined to keep our promise to our highly engaged community that we would return stronger than ever,” Meckler said in a statement, per The Hill.

“Parler is being run by an experienced team and is here to stay. We will thrive as the premier social media platform dedicated to free speech, privacy and civil dialogue,” Meckler continued.

The company did not reveal which web service will host Parler, saying instead that it is now “built on robust, sustainable, independent technology.”

Parler is back! https://t.co/CDzNLT1rtD

— David Reaboi (@davereaboi) February 15, 2021

“We are off of the big tech platform, so that we can consider ourselves safe and secure for the future,” Meckler said.

He added that the app will utilize artificial intelligence and human editors to crack down on illegal speech, but will remain true to its censorship-free mission.

The site is expected to preserve all previous user data, according to sources close to Parler who spoke with SaraACarter.com.

Meckler was recently named Interim CEO after the company ousted John Matze earlier this month.

“Cancel culture came for us, and hit us with all they had,” Parler shareholder Dan Bongino told Just the News Monday.

“Yet we couldn’t be kept down. We’re back, and we’re ready to resume the struggle for freedom of expression, data sovereignty, and civil discourse. We thank our users for their loyalty during this incredibly challenging time.”

Parler first went offline in early January when Google Play, Apple, and Amazon dropped the application from its hosting platforms in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

However, it’s unclear if the Apple App Store will host the platform with the new changes. Apple didn’t immediately respond to this reporter’s request for comment.

Summary:

• UK PM says likely won’t need “vaccine passport” to go to “the pub”
• UK reportedly finishes vaccinating everyone over 70 who wanted a vaccine
• EU anti-fraud office widens probe into fake vaccines
• WHO: notion of vaccine passports should be discussed
• Cuba joins COVID vaccine race
• US COVID cases fall to lowest level since October
• Global vaccine count nears 175MM
• US COVID case tally nears 30MM
• France warns on “variants” spreading
• Indian Institute agrees to supply Canada with vaccines
• Cambodia reports first cases of UK variant
• Tokyo infection numbers fall on daily basis

* * *

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in the US races toward the 30MM mark (the tally was at 27.6MM confirmed cases as of Monday morning, according to Johns Hopkins), new cases are tumbling to their lowest daily tallies since October, as weather – if only for a brief moment – reasserts itself as America’s favorite national topic of discussion.

Cuba has joined the race (via Mexico, according to Bloomberg) to produce COVID-19 vaccines (while also developing its own home-grown vaccine program), however, it appears doubts about the efficacy of new mRNA vaccines are lingering.

The US isn’t the only country seeing falling COVID rates: the global daily rate of new COVID cases has fallen to 275.9K.

But the US is also leading the world in vaccinations, at a rate of nearly 1.7MM people per day, while more than 173MM doses of various vaccines tracked by Bloomberg have been given, according to official data.

Worries about “regional spread” of various COVID-19 “variants” (mutated strains showing higher levels of infectiousness and increased resilience to the first generation of vaccines) remains high around the world, as France worries about variants of the coronavirus that are spreading in some northern and eastern parts of France).

But in Brussels, the EU anti-fraud office has warned the governments of its member states to be on alert to schemers looking to sell fake COVID-19 vaccines as some members “get desperate” after the Continent’s vaccine rollout, which has been criticized by some as painfully slow.

In the UK, PM Boris Johnson announced Monday that the government and the NHS had achieved their goal of vaccinating everyone in the country over the age of 70 who wanted a vaccine. Meanwhile, the first wave of passengers temporarily staying in British airport hotels to begin 10 days of isolation as tough new quarantine measures, justified by news about the potentially more dangerous new variants, came into effect. BoJo also said during an interview earlier that while Britons likely won’t need a “vaccine passport” to visit the local pub, the policy is still “in the mix” when it comes to international travel.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he doesn’t think vaccine passports will be needed to go to the pub but they are ‘in the mix’ for international travel. pic.twitter.com/lySarkz1gv

— LBC (@LBC) February 15, 2021

In other news out of the US, California’s 14-day positive test rate dropped to 4.6% yesterday, the lowest since Nov. 15, while Ohio reported 1.8K cases, the fewest since October.

Here’s some more COVID news from overnight and Monday morning:

• India’s Serum Institute has agreed to ship COVID-19 vaccines to Canada within a month, its CEO said, a sign that a diplomatic dispute between the two countries is cooling. India earlier took umbrage after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said months-long protests by farmers on the outskirts of Delhi were “concerning” (Source: Nikkei).
• Cambodia reports its first cases of the highly contagious U.K. variant, after three foreigners who arrived from overseas tested positive while in quarantine (Source: Nikkei).
• Tokyo reports 266 infections, down from 371 a day earlier. While figures on Monday tend to be lower than other days, it was the ninth consecutive day for the capital to register fewer than 500 cases (Source: Nikkei).

Finally, in the latest setback for the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, South Korea has decided not to use the AstraZeneca vaccine on people 65 and older until researchers can confirm the vaccine’s effectiveness on patients in the age group, continuing a trend that began in Europe, when Germany, followed shortly thereafter by France, declined to approve the vaccine in people 65+ without further study embarrassing the UK after its government became first in the world to approve the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine.

Authored by Jamie Redman via Bitcoin.com,

Ever since the infatuation between Elon Musk and the meme-based cryptocurrency dogecoin, a number of people have looked at the asset critically. News.Bitcoin.com recently reported on the mysterious dogecoin wallet that absorbed more than 27% of the coin’s supply since February 6, 2019. This week, the dogecoin wallet with $3 billion worth of the crypto asset has been creating odd transactions with binary messages, further adding to the speculation that the address might be Musk’s wallet.

Cryptic Binary Code, Elon’s Birthday, and Transaction Gibberish

The cryptocurrency dogecoin has catapulted seeing ‘much value’ and shibes everywhere have been saying “wow.” The current CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, has been one individual who has created a lot of hype around the meme-based crypto asset.

But Musk hasn’t been the only one, as people have placed signs in Times Square in New York telling people in the city they should “buy DOGE.” On social media, there are many dogecoin fans shilling the token relentlessly in an attempt to get the price to $1.

In addition to the growing popularity of dogecoin, news.Bitcoin.com recently reported on the billion-dollar DOGE address that consumed over 27% of the entire supply since 2019.

A touch over a month later, after the address received its first transaction on February 6, on April 2, Musk said: “dogecoin might be my fav cryptocurrency” Since then, the dogecoin address has managed to gather around 36.8 billion DOGE worth $3 billion today. In more recent days, speculators have assumed that the billion-dollar dogecoin address belongs to the Tesla founder.

Then on Reddit, via the subreddits r/cryptomarkets and r/dogecoin, people have been discussing the mysterious address once again. People have begun to notice that the owner of the address has been sending odd transactions, some of which can be transcribed into binary code.

One person who tried to figure out the binary code message said he couldn’t translate it, and that a lot of it was “gibberish.” Others discovered that one set of transactions displayed Elon Musk’s birth date. Some people have found messages being sent to the large address as well, asking if the wallet belongs to Musk. There are also a few assumptions from speculators who believe the address may belong to the exchange Robinhood.

While trying to decipher a message one Redditor wrote:

It’s not gibberish, I’ve gone through some of it and already found this: ?NOLEUOYTISI

‘One Coin to Rule Them All’

Moreover, on Wednesday, Musk then tweeted about the meme currency again in another tweet that involved his baby son named “X Æ A-12.”

“Bought some Dogecoin for lil X, so he can be a toddler hodler,” Musk tweeted to his followers with a video of his boy. Additionally, Musk tweeted a meme that said “one coin to rule them all,” with a picture of the hobbit’s ring from the J. R. R. Tolkien story “The Lord of the Rings.”

Musk said:

Frodo was the underdoge, All thought he would fail, Himself most of all.

A lot of bitcoin proponents have been addressing the fact that Musk has been tweeting an awful lot about dogecoin (DOGE), but in the end, Tesla purchased bitcoin (BTC) for its balance sheet. To many people, this observation is meaningful and to others, specifically DOGE fans, it is not.

The Lincoln Project, which raised over $90 million to oppose former President Trump and his allies during the 2020 election, has shuttered their fundraising page amid the organization’s spectacular implosion.

According to the New York Post, the group’s donation page has been listed as inactive since Saturday, following weeks of turmoil which began with one of the (married) founders, John Weaver, being outed for sending lurid text messages to dozens of young men, which we then learned the group’s co-founders knew about and concealed as early as last June. What’s more, the group has been hit with accusations of misappropriation of funds, after more than half of the $90 million they raised was spent on consulting companies owned by the group’s founders – many of whom were saddled with debt when they founded the ‘project.’

Update: The donation page is still down https://t.co/iHjCOH7QBi

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) February 15, 2021

Two former Lincoln Project interns came forward last week with salacious text messages from Weaver, who was forced to resign from the organization after the story broke, and not when his co-founders found out about the allegations.

According to the Associated Press, Lincoln Project leaders were informed in writing and phone calls of at least 10 specific allegations of harassment against Weaver as early as last June.

…

On Saturday, co-founder Steve Schmidt resigned from the board, while Jennifer Horn split with the group last month after a contract dispute, causing a public spat with other members.

The Post also first reported that Schmidt interviewed for a job on then-candidate Trump’s White House bid in 2016, but the campaign chief role ultimately went to Paul Manafort. –New York Post

Sour grapes gone wrong?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Regardless of our opinions about President Carter and his legacy, his Farewell Address is worthy of our attention and study.

On Presidents Day 2021, I invite you to read/watch President Carter’s Farewell Address from 40 years ago. As a Washington outsider, Carter was relentlessly mocked and undermined by the Establishment, as insiders’ loathing of outsiders knows no bounds.

In a similar fashion, the loathing of the corrupt and self-absorbed for the faithful aspiring to better world despite our weaknesses and flaws also knows no bounds, and so the establishment insiders that run the nation had no use for Carter other than as a handy whipping post.

President Carter was not the only outsider president reviled by the Washington elites, of course; outsiders of both parties draw the fierce fire of a corrupt Establishment fearful of exposure.

Although many reckon it good sport to make fun of President Carter’s initiatives (along with his grin, hair, accent, etc. etc. etc.), a strong case can be made that he was the first and only 21st century President the nation has elected. Every president since, regardless of party or ideology or canned speeches (Soaring Rhetoric (TM), has been embedded in a continuation of the 20th century economy, politics and Imperial Project.

Carter was the first and only president to address DeGrowth, though the word had yet to be coined: DeGrowth is the idea that resources would eventually become scarce and thus unaffordable, and rather then pursue the insane fantasy of eternal growth on a finite planet, a new arrangement that did more with less would be needed.

“There are real and growing dangers to our simple and our most precious possessions: the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the land which sustains us. The rapid depletion of irreplaceable minerals, the erosion of topsoil, the destruction of beauty, the blight of pollution, the demands of increasing billions of people, all combine to create problems which are easy to observe and predict, but difficult to resolve.

But there is no reason for despair. Acknowledging the physical realities of our planet does not mean a dismal future of endless sacrifice. In fact, acknowledging these realities is the first step in dealing with them. We can meet the resource problems of the world–water, food, minerals, farmlands, forests, overpopulation, pollution if we tackle them with courage and foresight.”

President Carter was also prescient in his understanding that a nation’s greatest strength is its social cohesion, a cohesion that America’s unprecedented wealth/ income /power inequalities has undermined. Consider this excerpt from his Address:

“Our common vision of a free and just society is our greatest source of cohesion at home and strength abroad, greater even than the bounty of our material blessings.”

President Carter recognized that civil rights / liberties are not just fatuous PR to be trotted out in Soaring Rhetoric (TM) lip-service; they are the foundation of our national identity:

“America did not invent human rights. In a very real sense, it’s the other way around. Human rights invented America. Ours was the first nation in the history of the world to be founded explicitly on such an idea. Our social and political progress has been based on one fundamental principle: the value and importance of the individual. The fundamental force that unites us is not kinship or place of origin or religious preference. The love of liberty is the common blood that flows in our American veins.

We have no cause for self-righteousness or complacency, but we have every reason to persevere, both within our own country and beyond our borders.”

President Carter recognized the fatal consequences of special interests dominating the political order, a danger that has now reached full flower in 2021:

“Today, as people have become ever more doubtful of the ability of the Government to deal with our problems, we are increasingly drawn to single-issue groups and special interest organizations to ensure that whatever else happens, our own personal views and our own private interests are protected. This is a disturbing factor in American political life. It tends to distort our purposes, because the national interest is not always the sum of all our single or special interests. We are all Americans together, and we must not forget that the common good is our common interest and our individual responsibility.”

Regardless of our opinions about President Carter and his legacy, his Farewell Address is worthy of our attention and study:

President Carter’s Farewell Address to the Nation (16:56)

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My recent books:

A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
 

With every passing day, expectations rise that Biden’s fiscal stimulus will get ever closer to its proposed $1.9 target, sparking a heated debate among even such “progressive” establishment economists as Larry Summer and Olivier Blanchard on one side who warn that Biden’s stimulus will lead to economic overheating, while other economists such as Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell are confident that even more can and should be done.

Stepping back from clueless economists making loud noises in a desperate push to be noticed, whereas a month ago most Wall Street firms expected the latest and greatest covid deal to be around $1 trillion (JPMorgan was at $900BN just three weeks ago), and well below Biden’s stated target, it has since risen substantially, and in some cases – like Toronto Dominion – strategists expect that the full $1.9 trillion amount will be passed.

But what do actual market participants think?

To answer that question, Deutsche Bank polled over 450 market participants for their expectations for the upcoming stimulus. It found that expectations for the upcoming US stimulus are high to quite hit with 68% thinking it will come in above $1.3TN and 35% thinking above $1.6TN (another 6% thought it would be more than $1.9TN – normally they would be considered insane, but in this crazy world who knows…)

In terms of whether people think the risk is doing too much or too little, the former edges it 51% to 44%.

To put this question in the proper context, Morgan Stanley’s top global economist Chetan Ahya made some calculations yesterday and came up with the following stunning conclusion of just how big the Biden stimulus is:

While any counter-cyclical policy response should be sizeable enough to fill the output hole, this time around, policy-makers have done much more. Cumulatively, the Covid-19 recession has cost US households US$400 billion in income, but they have already received more than US$1 trillion in transfers (even before the late December and forthcoming rounds of stimulus). Households have already accumulated US$1.5 trillion in excess saving, which is set to rise to US$2 trillion (9.5% of GDP) by early March once the additional fiscal package is enacted. These policy-making regime shifts also mean that policy-makers will tighten much later in the recovery than in the previous cycle.

The speed and strength of the demand recovery will put a strain on the supply side, which has limited time to respond, and accelerated labor market restructuring will likely push the natural rate of unemployment higher in the near term. Against this backdrop, inflationary pressures will build up very quickly.

So, as DB’s Jim Reid writes, “the debate is relatively balanced but generally respondents think it will be an aggressive package and slightly worry it will be too big” and Reid suspects that overheating remains the biggest Wall Street concern. This is reflected in the fact that those that expect inflation post Covid has climbed for the 8th successive month.

As the world’s residents celebrated its love for one another, there was blood on the streets of cryptoville overnight.

Bitcoin crashed $3,500, back below $46,000 after hitting new record highs earlier in the day, and Ethereum was monkeyhammered almost $200 back near $1650.

But as America woke to celebrate Washington’s birthday, a wave of buying ripped crypto markets higher with Bitcoin back above…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum back up near $1850…

Source: Bloomberg

So what sparked the ‘Valentine’s Day Massacre’? CoinTelegraph’s Joseph Young notes that more than $1.89 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin and Ether sharply dropped.

Most of the liquidations came from Bitcoin and Ether, which accounted for $555 million and $336 million, respectively. But altcoins like XRP, EOS and Litecoin (LTC) also saw large liquidations as the market plummeted.

Liquidations across crypto exchanges. Source: Twitter @CryptoRank_io

The lion’s share of the liquidations happened on Binance, while Bitfinex saw the least. This suggests that the former may have the biggest share of novice traders, according to Bitfinex chief technology officer Paolo Ardoino.

“Bitfinex has almost 1B in open interest but extremely low liquidation rate compared to competition,” explained Ardoino.

“Finex seems to have traders that use leverage slightly more carefully.”

Additionally, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, a recovery was likely because there are enough stablecoin reserves in the cryptocurrency exchange market to trigger another leg up for Bitcoin.

In the crypto market, sidelined capital is often stored in stablecoins rather than cash or in bank accounts because they are much easier and faster to deploy on exchanges. Ju said that it is an ideal time to buy Bitcoin, given that a newfound rally is more likely. He wrote:

“If you’re a long-term investor, now is the time to buy $BTC. Not sure how many corrections would be along the way, but the on-chain indicator says there are enough stablecoins in exchanges compared to Bitcoins to get another leg up.”

Read more here…

However, not everyone is embracing the rebound in crypto (and apparent rotation out of ‘old’ gold into ‘digital’ gold). Infamous hedge fund manager and Caribbean Island dweller offered up his usual mix of eloquent and deep thoughts on the rotation… and when not if to rotate into it…

pic.twitter.com/Cqqb7aLZVp

— Hugh Hendry Eclectica (@hendry_hugh) February 14, 2021

Gold and silver have been total dogs these last six months. BTC has just outperformed. I attribute this to Wil Self and his Quantity Theory of Insanity.

That there is, after all, a finite set of molecules in the universe of alternative assets – the last hold out for those seeking diversification.

My interpretation is that investing in this sector is analogous to growing followers on my Instagram account – that just as one group’s starting to get it another are unsubscribing…

In this world, and maybe it’s just for the moment, but Peter gotta pay Paul, ‘cause there’s only a limited amount of sanity remaining in the world. So, when @ScottMinerd says theoretically BTC can go to $400k, i.e., 10 x higher than now…

I think that until the bomb goes off, that hypothesis requires XAU to go to zero Me? I’ve always figured that the only reason people go mad is because somebody’s gotta…right?

So, I think there’s been switching from gold and silver to BTC. I got friends who did this for sure, this cycle vs last time and I’m convinced the younger generation are all in BTC. I read somewhere that Grayscale Trust is one of the top ten securities bought by Millenials

…you got to think that if BTC existed back in the day, then I would have been buying such a bad ass in 2002. But back then, sticking it to the man meant buying the precious complex. Today we have variant pathways to insanity and all its turnpikes.

But the weird right here, right now, is the price action and correlations – if we do have to leave insanity city for a moment, then gold and silvers’ performance of late makes more sense – they topped out when US real rates bottomed and have struggled ever since in being absolute/terrible vs SPX. Real rate comparison charts sans a Bloomberg terminal are a stretch but the gold TLT chart is not a bad stand-in

And yet BTC has surged, and from a pure macro perspective maybe that shouldn’t have happened? Shouldn’t performance be identical in terms of factor analysis?? I’m just asking the question…

Instead, of late, BTC has correlated with TSLA. Like I said, borrowing from fields further away, BTC at this juncture, has the conscience temper of a savage autocrat spoiled by too much adulation…

The real test of your understanding and investment success is when you CAN buy something after it’s been kicked in the teeth by the mob rather than held aloft and carried high on the shoulders of an adoring mass. I’ll take my chances that BTC pulls back.

Talking of which, silver more than gold –a prize fighter in a corner is told, hit where it hurts yeah baby, silver more than gold… apologies Bono

The industrial narrative of the supply/demand balance in silver has switched and now works with us nutters and not against us like it did in the 2000s.

Retail’s always long. Good on you! But in the 2000s one of the main industrial applications for silver was photographic related demand which was declining as digital took over.

For those institutional investors that seek a leitmotif to justify their actions – me? I just buy things going up – it was almost impossible to get behind and properly invest in such a whimsical investment

– but now you need silver for solar power & the circuit boards in electric vehicles etc – Whimsical squared?  I think you’ve got a green light to be as mischievous as you dare be…

So BTC I’ll take my chances and await a moment of less idolatry – I got my SBH real estate after all and then gold for whimsy and silver for whimsy squared…

Still, The FT is trying its best to sit on the fence – at once suggesting this is the birth of a new asset class… and the greatest bubble of all time…

You decide!

There are widespread reports emerging Monday out of Myanmar that military and police are using increasingly harsh and potentially deadly tactics to quash anti-coup protests there. 

Despite a near total internet and telecommunications outage across the country social media videos are being posted of large-scale troop and armored vehicle deployments to the streets. Chaotic scenes of blasts and flash-bangs show anti-riot tactics deployed on crowds, but also suggest ‘live fire’ could be happening – though there’s still conflicting reports over whether security forces are using live ammo or rubber bullets. 

Myanmar’s junta cuts the nation’s internet and deploys extra troops around the country as fears built of a widespread crackdown on anti-coup protests, but defiant demonstrators again take to the streets https://t.co/8XxzFZ0Fjt pic.twitter.com/tpCWAQE1HH

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 15, 2021

“Armored vehicles have rolled into Myanmar cities amid fears of a crackdown on anti-coup protesters after nine days of mass demonstrations demanding a return to civilian rule,” Al Jazeera reported Sunday of the worsening situation.

And on Monday the Associated Press reports that security forces have been seen aiming rifles at groups of protesters:

“More than 1,000 protesters were rallying in front of the Myanmar Economic Bank in Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city, when at least 10 trucks full of soldiers and police arrived and started firing slingshots toward the protesters before they even got out of the trucks, according to a photographer who witnessed the events.

The soldiers and police then attacked the protesters with sticks and slingshots, and police could be seen aiming long guns into the air amid sounds that resembled gunfire. Local media reported that rubber bullets were also fired into the crowd, and that a few people were injured.

Police were also seen pointing guns toward the protesters.”

This @IrrawaddyNews photo going viral in #Myanmar from the violent crackdown on protest in Mandalay this afternoon. Plainclothes soldier carrying an air rifle. Footage also shows him pointing it towards the upper levels of a building in the street.#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/pN2LQR7dMd

— Poppy McPherson (@poppymcp) February 15, 2021

Scenes like the below are ubiquitous on social media, showing armored troop carriers blocking city streets.

Currently there’s been a handful of critical injuries among protesters wounded by rubber bullets and tear gas canisters, including one woman hit in the head by a projectile who doctors said is not expected to recover. 

Anti-coup protesters on social media have begun alleging police are resorting to live ammunition to disperse demonstrators:

In Myitkyina, the military has started firing on citizens.#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb14Coup pic.twitter.com/BcvPRK4p20

— Yuki (@Yuki27985345) February 14, 2021

“Security forces opened fire to disperse protesters outside one plant in Myitkyina, capital of Kachin state, footage aired live on Facebook showed, although it was not clear if they were using rubber bullets or live fire,” Al Jazeera described Sunday.

By all appearances the protesters are getting bolder in their tactics, which is likely to provoke a fiercer response from security forces.

Some people telling me from #Yangon #Myanmar that places allegedly set on fire. Video sent to me is a golf course at Star City being deliberately set on fire they say. Neighborhood slightly upper class with some foreigners living there #WhatIsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/e1gsWy6vYP

— May Wong (@MayWongCNA) February 14, 2021

Last Friday the junta declared it illegal to use “incorrect words” such as coup when referring to the new government, according to a Ministry of Information announcement.

Protesters in Myanmar keep up demands for the release of ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and an end to military rule despite the deployment of military vehicles and more soldiers on the streets https://t.co/qxeFDrnCfB #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Coup15Feb pic.twitter.com/Ett1FMyzkG

— soe zeya tun (@soezeya) February 15, 2021

The message further claimed the newly issued one year ‘state of emergency’ is “in accordance” with the constitution.

The United States among other nations recently formally declared it recognizes that a coup d’état has occurred, which began Feb. 1 with the arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi and other civilian leaders.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is holding a press briefing, where he will presumably be asked about the growing backlash over his handling of COVID-19 pandemic era policy, especially surrounding how hospitals were tasked with handling patients from long-term care facilities.

 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Things Red and Blue

As expected, former President Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial over the weekend as only 7, not 17, Republicans voted with the 50 Democratic senators to convict. As also expected, this provides no political closure. Roses are red, violets are blue….and the two flowers don’t want to be in the same bouquet judging from the rhetoric flying around. Indeed, it’s more brickbats all round.

As noted weeks ago, a Republican civil war post Trump now begins in full. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell castigated him while voting to acquit; the Republicans who voted to convict face local party censure; and Trump himself put out a public statement (not over Twitter, obviously) that the MAGA movement has “only just begun”. The US now enters an 18-month-plus period in which Trumpists may try to primary Republican Congressional candidates to deliver both the party and a Congressional majority to MAGA populism in 2022. The global implications of this very national struggle will likely be enormous.

Meanwhile, it’s hardly roses all round elsewhere:

• Melbourne is into lockdown again, and Auckland too;

• We just had the worst UK recession for 300 years, alongside warnings the British economy will collapse if the government forces firms to repay the vast sums lent to them in 2020 merely to stand still, and as the government still refuses to commit to a timetable to roll back lockdowns;

• The White House has stated its “deep concerns” over the WHO’s investigation into the origin of Covid in China, suggesting US global reengagement will mean a struggle over control of such key multilaterals;

• Russia says it is prepared to cut links with the EU if the latter imposes Magnitsky sanctions on it, quoting Vegetius: “If you want peace, you must prepare for war”. Although whether this includes stopping gas flows in a bitterly cold winter or not (as US prices explode higher) remains unclear, it *is* clear that the EU is never prepared for war of any kind;

• On the trade side of which, the US is not going to drop tariffs on EU wine and cheese and other food imports any time soon, just as it isn’t on Chinese products; and

• Tanks are rolling into the streets in Myanmar and the internet being shutdown despite the imposition of US sanctions on Burmese generals (and the alleged arrival of both Chinese and Russian “advisors”), showing the limits of US power in Asia.

But central–bank liquidity is still guaranteed come what may, so global markets don’t care at all for such boring brickbats. For them it’s all bouquets all day long. As such, is it any surprise that bubble indicators are starting to flash red all over, from record low US junk bond yields to record negative investment grade bond real yields, to the ‘Buffet index’ of US stock capitalisation to USD GDP? Or that Japan’s Nikkei just hit 30,000 for the first time since 1990? Which is a telling lesson in how long it takes to finally blow a bubble big enough to replace the one Japan blew back in the 1980s: and consider that as we are all told that we are turning more and more Japanese all over.

This central fact was summed up in rare creative fashion by the ECB yesterday, which in Trumpian fashion decided to use Twitter to communicate with the following tweet (which is not a joke):

“Roses are red, violets are blue; We’ll keep financing conditions favourable; ‘Til the crisis is through.” #ECBmyvalentine

Regular readers probably know that this particular Daily is never one to shy away from a rhyming poem challenge thrown down by a central bank. Indeed, we dream of the day the Fed challenges us to a limerick contest over policy:

“There was a young man from D.C.; Who dabbled too much in QE;

Up went all asset prices; Ending up with a crisis;

That crushed all of his authority.”

Or perhaps “Feeling much like our groins met his knee”; or

“Leaving crypto still THE place to be”, given what Bitcoin is going again, and who looks like following its vapour trail into the ether; or even

“What then for our democracy?”, to get all 1930s, which seems particularly appropriate given the whole ‘Roaring 20s’ nonsense out there as the current market meme du jour. But I digress: simply allow me to respond to the ECB in romantic, rhyming-poem kind:

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Do you really need Twitter; For forward guidance anew?”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; It’s US *fiscal* policy; That’s got us all a stew.”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Do you really believe; Germans will do that too?”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Your promise means nothing; If long rates go up too.”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; If you peg down the yield curve; Does it say ‘free market’ to you?”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Then explain what your FX; Will concurrently do.”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Time to flush all econ textbooks; Straight down the loo.”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; You don’t know what you’re doing; It’s sad, but it’s true”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; This will all get political; Expect real hullabaloo.”

“Roses are red, violets are blue; Many voters hate QE; So they’ll soon hate you too.”