Month: December 2017

According to local TV, a Syrian army's military aircraft has been downed by insurgents in the Hama province. The pilot of the jet has reportedly been killed as a result of the downing, according to Al Arabiya.

 

#BREAKING: #Syrian media confirm opposition shot down regime military aircraft near the eastern Hama countryside. More soon. http://pic.twitter.com/4ct6ctdqDf

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) December 26, 2017

 

The report was confirmed by SANA, the Syrian state media organization.

"The military aircraft crashed in the vicinity of Hama after it was shot by terrorists; the pilot was killed," a source told the Syrian state-run SANA news agency.

According to local media reports translated by Sputnik, it wasn't clear which group was responsible for shooting down the jet. Several unconfirmed reports said the pilot survived the crash, but was later killed by his militant captors. The plane was reportedly identified as a L-39 Albatros. Still, conflicting reports have surfaced about what happened to the jet: Some local outlets reported that the jet suffered technical difficulties, while others said it was downed by anti-aircraft guns.
 

 

This story is developing…

 

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Despite the GOP’s tax reform victory, over the past few weeks, Congress once again punted on a formal decision how to keep government funded and what to do with America’s debt ceiling and as a result US legislators simply kicked the can on the agreement of raising the nation’s borrowing limit for another few months. However, with the Treasury expected to breach the ceiling as soon as late March, today’s $45 billion 3-Month Bill auction was closely watched as it serves as a fresh gauge of investor anxiety about the ongoing impasse.

As a reminder, in the first week of December, the Treasury deployed a series of extraordinary measures to stay under the debt ceiling cap since it was reinstated on December 8. But T-bill investors, in both the primary and secondary market,  remain especially wary given questions over what’s known as the debt ceiling’s drop-dead date. Today’s Bills mature March 29, within the Congressional Budget Office’s late-March to early-April window for when Treasury will exhaust the extra capacity it’s using to keep below the $20.5 trillion limit.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Justin Mandeville of Inveso said that the late-December bill auctions “speak volumes to investors being cautious as to when the potential drop-dead date will be,” adding that “we saw it back in July when we had concerns about the October bills.”

And sure enough, having just concluded, the 3M bill was especially ugly, pricing at 1.445%, or a 3bps tail to the 1.415% When Issued, with Indirect Buyers fleeing, and taking down just 20.1% of the finally allotment, down from 30.8% in the last 6 auctions, while Primary Dealers had no choice but to step up aggressively from 61.9% in the 6MMA, to 74% as Direct interest also fizzled from 7.3% in the last 6 auctions to just 5.9%. But nowhere was the revulsion quite so visible as in the bid to cover, which plunged from 3.04 in the past 6 auctions to just 2.71 on Dec. 26: this was the lowest Bid to Cover since January 2009.

As Bloomberg reminds us, at the government’s July 24 auction, the US Treasury sold $39 billion of three-month bills at 1.18 percent, then the highest rate since 2008. The bid to cover for that particular sale also matched the lowest for the maturity since 2009. Congress wound up passing a three-month debt-ceiling suspension Sept. 8, weeks before Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin estimated the government would run out of cash.

However, revulsion to paper that could be impacted by the debt ceiling was not just in the primary market: it also hit the secondary Bill market, as the previously noted kink that has emerged in the bill curve between securities maturing in late March and those in early April, has gotten even more pronounced. For several days after the Dec. 18 auction of bills maturing March 22, the rate on these securities was higher than debt maturing a week later. Since then, the rate on securities expiring March 29 has climbed to 1.44%, exceeding those on bills due the following week by nearly 10 bps as shown in the chart below.

And so, looking at the debt ceiling fight that refuses to go away despite the can being kicked every few months, while there is still a chance the issue could be resolved without going down to the wire, it is unlikely: while lawmakers hammered out a spending bill this week to keep the government open through Jan. 19, they didn’t include a provision to lift or suspend the debt ceiling. The longer a resolution remains at the bottom of Congress’s to-do list, the larger the T-bill dislocations could grow. Sooner or later, the bond market – which has been crying wolf on a technical US default – will eventually be right.

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While the wholesale disappearance of retail traders from stock markets is hardly a novel observation, it has taken on a whole new meaning in Japan, where the lack of carbon-based investors has prompted Deutsche Bank to ask if “Japan’s stocks are still traded at all by humans.”

As Deutsche strategist Masao Muraki writes, since the US presidential election, Japanese stocks (in this case the TOPIX index) have been almost entirely defined by just three things: US stocks (S&P 500), the implied volatility (VIX), and USDJPY. This is shown in the model correlation chart below.

And while some observers think that foreigners are buying Japanese stocks on hopes for Abenomics following the Lower House election, this aspect is not apparent in the Figure above according to Deutsche. Instead, according to the German bank, it is the 10Yr US yields  that determine relative performance of Japanese and US financial stocks most directly. Additionally, interest rates, forex, and option prices (implied volatility) are defining absolute share prices for Japanese life insurers and banks, as shown in the charts below.

Furthermore, while financial institutions delivered some surprises in earnings announcements and shareholder returns and major developments took place in bank and insurers capital regulations in 2017 too, Deutsche notes that it “cannot find any indications of active change in allocations to life insurers and banks by investors due to these factors.”

These observations prompt Deutsche to ask “a basic question”, namely “whether the power of price decisions for Japanese stocks (particularly financial stocks) have shifted from people to algorithms or AI.” Some additional thoughts:

Shift to passive fund management has accelerated, partially due to the impact of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rules, and the trading share of active funds, which follow decisions led by human, is declining. With reduced influence, active funds appear to be focusing on sectors with drastic fundamentals changes (such as technology sector). In fact, more than 70% of inquiries from overseas equity investors to our insurance, securities, and other financial sectors team in December were about SBI, which indirectly owns cryptcurrencies. Reduction of active management costs due to MiFID2 might accelerate this activity.

And since Deutsche is clearly correct that increasingly more, if not the vast majority, of trading decisions and execution has shifted from humans to machines, the outcome is concerning, because as the German bank notes, “if the price formation based on model is prolonged, the gap between price and fundamentals will be wider. Thus, stock price correction may occur periodically.“

Yet while Japanese equities may no longer be interesting to local humans, the same can not be said for bitcoin, where as the same DB strategist “discovered” two weeks ago, it was mostly “Mr. Watanabe” trading the world’s most popular cryptocurrency:

An 11 December Nikkei report stated that 40% of cryptocurrency trading in Oct-Nov was yen-denominated. Japanese traders have reportedly come to account for nearly half of cryptocurrency trading since China started to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges, and this is said to be widely known among industry insiders (various estimates exist). This report shows that Japanese men in their 30s and 40s who are engaged in leveraged FX trading (or who used to trade but have stopped) are driving the cryptocurrency market.

This in turn prompted us to wonder, tongue-in-cheek, if Bitcoin wasn’t a secretive ploy by the BOJ – which has had a far more permissive approach to bitcoin cryptocurrencies than its central bank peers – to boost Japanese animal spirits, which had been squashed by three decades of chronic deflation and disenchantment with rigged equities. Today, Deutsche Bank poses a similar question when it asks “Will Bitcoin ignite the “speculative spirit” of Japanese people?“

We will be closely monitoring the risk-taking stance of Japanese retail investors in 2018 in light of the management of ¥900trn of the ¥1,800trn as deposits in overall personal financial assets. Japanese retail investors eagerly purchased certain assets at prices with little support from fundamentals during the bubble period in the 1980s and the IT bubble period around 2000. Symbolic choices were NTT shares that listed in February 1987 for the former and Hikari Tsushin shares that listed in 1999 for the latter (Figure 1).

 

 

 

The emergence of “Bitcoin wealthy” might ignite the “speculative spirit” of Japanese people with strong follower aspirations.

Taken to its extreme, encouraging speculation in bitcoin – and in general any asset that is up over 15x YTD – would be a perfect way to rekindle not only animal spirits, but Japan’s reflationary impetus.  One can see why the BOJ could, if not would, be behind such a “wealth creation” mechanism.

Finally, as Deutsche accurately points out, “of course, speculation at prices with flimsy fundamentals support unleashes strong backlash once asset prices weaken. Overly leveraged trades, in particular, are a concern. Cryptocurrency prices plunged on 22 December, and we think this impacted retail investors using margin trades.”

Well, not really, because the December 22 plunge is now long forgotten, and the real question one should ask is whether the Bank of Japan had anything to do with the sharp rebound in bitcoin which plunged as low as $10,500 last week before surging back to $16,000 earlier today…

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The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last.

This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018.

It is easy to gloss over the significance of this, but the Fed’s actions are indeed unusual; other major Central Banks (the Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England) are all currently running QE programs (the BoJ, ECB and BoE) or openly printing new money to buy stocks outright (the SNB).

What precisely is the Fed doing? Why the urge to tighten when other banks are all printing new money by the billions?

The following quotes from Fed offer us clues.

Fed Monetary Policy Report, June 2017:

“Forward price-to-earnings ratios for equities have increased to a level well above their median of the past three decades,

Fed minutes, July 2017:

"Since the April assessment, vulnerabilities associated with asset valuation pressures had edged up from notable to elevated, as asset prices remained high or climbed further, risk spreads narrowed, and expected and actual volatility remained muted in a range of financial markets."

Janet Yellen response to question from IMF Panel, October 2017:

Market valuations “are at high level in historical terms” when assessed on metrics akin to price-earnings ratios,

Fed Minutes, October 2017:

"In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances,"

Janet Yellen during Fed presser December 13th, 2017:

Stock valuations are at high end of historical levels.

I want to be clear on the significance of these statements.

The Fed’s primary role is to maintain financial stability. This means that the Fed will always downplay risks in its public statements. Indeed, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke once stated that Fed policy is “98% talk, 2% action.”

With that in mind, the above quotes are astonishing in their clarity: the Fed is explicitly stating (in Fed terms) that the markets are in a bubble. And the Fed didn’t just do this once, the Fed has been warning about asset valuations/froth in the system for six months straight.

So just how “frothy” are things that the Fed is being so explicit?

Try “1999-levels” frothy.

Perhaps the best means of measuring frothiness in stocks is the Price to Sales (P/S) multiple. Most investors prefer to use Price to Earnings (P/E), but I am wary of that method because earnings can easily be fudged via gimmicks (different methods of depreciation, write-offs, reducing loan loss reserves, tax loopholes, etc.).

Sales, on the other hand, are very hard to fudge. Either money came in the door, or it didn’t. And if a company gets caught fudging its revenues, someone goes to jail.

With that in mind, consider that the S&P 500’s current P/S multiple has surpassed its former all time peak from 1999: a period that is now widely considered to be the single largest stock bubble in history.

Put simply, stocks are extraordinarily overvalued by a reliable measure.

H/T Bill King

However, there is one main difference between 1999 and today…

Namely, that the Fed has been INTENTIONALLY creating bubbles for nearly 20 years today… and it's out of more senior asset classes to use!

Let me explain…

The late ‘90s was the Tech Bubble.

When that burst in the mid-‘00s, the Fed created a bubble in housing.

When that burst in ’08 the Fed created a bubble in US sovereign bonds or Treasuries.

And because these bonds are the bedrock of the US financial system, the “risk-free rate” of return against which ALL risk assets are valued, when the Fed did this it created a bubble in EVERYTHING (hence our coining of the term “The Everything Bubble” and our bestselling book by the same name).

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s to come when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

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The last episode of the successful movie – Star Wars – is actually a lot less about the stars in space and much more about culture and class. Most importantly, it reflects the dangerously growing disenfranchisement of the race-and-gender obsessed liberal upper class and everyone else.

The movie finally came out, the money started flowing and eventually the reviews arrived. The result? On the primary review sites Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes the critics loved it, the public did not, which left many wondering why.

Some explanations came out already: the good results are scientific, the bad ones are there because of internet trolls. Nope, there’s nothing scientific about subjective opinions, even if they (allegedly) represent the majority of those who express them. Science is, or should be, objective.

Trolls, more trolls, and finally, Russian interference.

That’s the cue to solving the enigma of the different ratings: the standard profile of the movie critic is a liberal arts graduate, easily identifiable by the verbosity of his writing and by the fact that he is easily impressed by cheap virtue-signalling elements like token ethnic minority leading characters and a strong female lead. As the movie panders (not even that much to be fair) to his ideological preferences, he gives high scores based on diversity and equality. The average-movie goer probably doesn’t care too much about politics. In a country where a “decisive’’ election like the last one, turnout is 55%, the biggest party by far is the one of those who stay at home. In comparison, in Europe important electoral dates easily get an 80% turnout.

So if the audience isn’t into politics, they might not care about the significance of a strong and independent woman outmanoeuvring a straight white male, the evil of mankind, in a duel with lightsabers to eradicate toxic masculinity⁴⁾.The non-politically biased movie goer wants a nice plot with unpredictable twists, satisfactory fight scenes, and some throwbacks to past episodes; and he didn’t get that. The plot falls flat.

Then there’s the other side of the political spectrum, the underclass who are simply fed up with the increasingly totalitarian tendencies of identity politics by the “liberal” Left and their constant attempts to shove their political beliefs down everyone’s throat. The new fad of the liberal elite, diversity, is being rejected like a bad transplant by the public. Nonetheless, it’s being pursued relentlessly and obnoxiously. The politicization of sports is already causing a haemorrhage of viewers for the NFL (the US football organization). Entertainment is also not immune to these attempts. The calls for the “diversification” of cast actors are regular.

The last two groups represent the “user score” and their review isn’t positive. The most interesting point, however, is another; it’s the reaction of critics to the public having a diverse (the irony!) opinion. That’s where the accusations of trolling or Russian meddling start, but they also reveal the insecurity of critics and especially, their inability to handle an opposite opinion. Just like the liberal political elite can’t accept that the world Obama built in the last 8 years received a negative review by the voters, who opted for the radical (in theory) change by electing Donald Trump, the liberal movie critic can’t accept a negative review of a work that reflects his ideological preference.

We might be seeing now the impact of those infamous participation trophies on the minds of the new generations: they don’t know how to accept defeat, nor any negativity whatsoever. They grew up being told that “everyone is special in their own way”, then Facebook arrived, allowing only likes but not dislikes contributing to the creation of a mindset where negativity is not allowed.

If there is negativity, then it must be from some malign agent… from Russia. One year ago, in one of our articles Russia did it ⁵⁾we spotted a trend: every political shortcoming of the Western elite would be blamed on Russia. We were right as the cases of alleged Russian interference have expanded from Trump and Brexit to the Italian referendum last year, and according to Joe Biden⁶⁾also the rise (and fall) of Marine Le Pen in the French elections and most recently the Green US politician Jill Stein, which may rank as the most hilarious cases of paranoia.

It turns out, however, that the Russian scapegoating is expanding outside the traditional boundaries of politics, as everything becomes increasingly politicized. Hence, even negative reviews of the Star Wars latest movie are now a result of the Russian sabotage.

As millennials, the generation that was put in a bubble protected from negativity by educators and social media and thus unable to handle it, are now fully settling in the job market, the prospect isn’t promising. If you think that’s bad, remember that the new cohorts in college campuses are now fighting to suppress free speech on the basis that it might offend someone’s feelings. Last year we concluded “expect to see more”. This time, expect to see worse.

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Several Seattle employees of both Google and Amazon were busted after using their corporate accounts to send emails to local brothels and pimps looking to purchase services from sex workers trafficked from Asia, according to emails obtained by Newsweek.

“[E]mails obtained by Newsweek reveal another sordid corner of the tech sector’s treatment of women: a horny nest of prostitution “hobbyists” at tech giants Microsoft, Amazon and other firms in Seattle’s high tech alley.” 

Many of the emails were swept up in a 2015 sting operation which targeted online chat rooms and message boards in which customers rate sex workers – resulting in the arrest of 18 of these “prostitution hobbyists,” including several high level Amazon and Microsoft directors – two of which are currently scheduled for trial in March. 

Seattle brothels had been catering to Microsoft employees through several “backpage.com” ads located nearby the company’s Redmond, WA headquarters, in what is becoming a booming business. 

A study commissioned by the Department of Justice found that Seattle has the fastest-growing sex industry in the United States, more than doubling in size between 2005 and 2012. That boom correlates neatly with the boom of the tech sector there. It also correlates to the surge in high-paying jobs, since this “hobby” (the word johns use online to describe buying sex) can be expensive: some of these men spent $30,000 to $50,000 a year, according to authorities.

 

The tech sector has not only employed a significant number of men who pay for sex with trafficked women, it has also enabled traffickers to more easily reach customers and to hide their business from cops by taking it off the streets and into computers and ultimately, hotel rooms, motels or apartments. In one 24-hour-period in Seattle, an estimated 6,487 people solicited sex on just one of the more than 100 websites that connect buyers with sellers, according to a 2014 study.

Of note, Backpage.com shut down its adult sections in January, citing government pressure following a 2016 Senate report on commercial sex services fingered the website as a hotbed for criminal activity, and stating that “Backpage officials have publicly acknowledged that criminals use the website for sex trafficking, including trafficking of minors.” 

Backpage.com CEO Carl Ferrer (Texas AG)

In October, 2016, Backpage CEO Carl Ferrer was arrested in Houston and the company’s Dallas headquarters searched. NPR reported at the time that Ferrer, 55, was charged with pimping a minor, pimping and conspiracy to commit pimping. Two controlling shareholders of Backpage — Michael Lacey and James Larkin — also are charged with conspiracy to commit pimping.” 

The prostitutes trafficked from Asia typically don’t speak much English, relying on translation apps to offer services such as “girlfriend” experiences and “Nuru” (nude massage). Many of the women are working their way out of debt bondage, and feared for their lives or those of their families – according to one pimp interviewed during the 2015 sting.

A spokesman for Microsoft said of the emails “Microsoft has a long history of cooperating with law enforcement and other agencies on combating sex trafficking and related topics, and we have employees who volunteer their time and money specifically to combat this issue as well. The personal conduct of a tiny fraction of our 125,000 employees does not in any way represent our culture. No organization is immune to the unfortunate situation when employees act unethically or illegally. When that happens, we look into the conduct and take appropriate action. Microsoft makes it clear to our employees they have a responsibility to act with integrity and conduct themselves in a legal and ethical manner at all times. If they don’t, they risk losing their jobs.”

Amazon told Newsweek it’s investigating the matter, and that “It is against Amazon’s policy for any employee or Contingent Worker to engage in any sex buying activities of any kind in Amazon’s workplace or in any work-related setting outside of the workplace, such as during business trips, business meetings or business-related social events.’ When Amazon suspects that an employee has used company funds or resources to engage in criminal conduct, the company will immediately investigate and take appropriate action up to and including termination. The company may also refer the matter to law enforcement.”

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A crypto-Christmas miracle? Bitcoin is now unchanged from the pre-Friday bloodbath, having scrambled higher for the last 24-48 hours as much of the world enjoyed a day off.

 

The entire crypto space is rallying once again today but the question remains, is this another dead cat bounce on the way to 'zero' or is Tom Lee, John McAfee, and Mike Novgratz right, this is a bump in the road to $40k and beyond…

 

As The Economic Collapse's Michael Snyder notes, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and other major cryptocurrencies have been on a wild ride this year, and over the past 10 days the volatility that we have witnessed in the marketplace has been absolutely breathtaking.  On December 17th, Bitcoin shot above $19,800 for a brief moment before it started plummeting dramatically.  At one point the price of Bitcoin dipped below $11,000, which represented close to a 45 percent decline from the record high that it had hit just five days earlier.  And Bitcoin was far from alone – virtually every other major cryptocurrency was also down between 25 and 50 percent during that five day period.  But now almost all of them are bouncing back, and at this moment the price of Bitcoin is $14,219.99.

So where do things go from here?

There are many that believe that in the short-term the price of Bitcoin will fall back toward the actual cost of production.  It has been estimated that the cost to produce a new Bitcoin is currently between three and four thousand dollars, and with the price of Bitcoin so high there is a tremendous incentive for Bitcoin miners to produce as many as possible right now.

But there are others that are convinced that Bitcoin could eventually go to zero…

Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette and his team sent a research note to clients a few days ago suggesting that the real value of bitcoin might be … $0.

 

That’s zero dollars. (Bitcoin stood at around $14,400 at the time of writing.)

To back up his assessment, Faucette made the following arguments…

• Can Bitcoin be valued like a currency? No. There is no interest rate associated with Bitcoin.
• Like digital gold? Maybe. Does not have any intrinsic use like gold has in electronics or jewelry. But investors appear to be ascribing some value to it.
• Is it a payment network? Yes but it is tough to scale and does not charge a transaction fee.

Faucette also pointed out that the number of online retailers that accept Bitcoin is actually falling.  Five of the top 500 e-commerce merchants accepted Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2016, but now only three still do.

In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable long-term future, it must become a real currency that is widely used, but many would argue that it is already being surpassed by better and newer options.  In fact, one top cryptocurrency expert recent stated that the old Bitcoin network “is as good as unusable”…

Emil Oldenburg, the co-founder of Bitcoin.com – one of the world’s largest sites devoted to the cryptocurrency – recently called the cryptocurrency the “most risky investment you can make,” after he switched to bitcoin cash, which he considers to be the future.

 

"The old bitcoin network is as good as unusable,” said in an interview with Swedish tech site Breakit.

That certainly doesn’t sound promising, but so far that hasn’t stopped the price of Bitcoin from heading into the stratosphere. 

So far in 2017 the price of Bitcoin has risen more than 1,400%, and that number is extremely impressive no matter how you look at it.

Of course virtually all of that “digital wealth” could disappear in just a matter of days during a major crash.  The CEO of Patriarch Equity, Eric Schiffer, believers that Bitcoin investments are eventually heading for “a thermonuclear death”…

“I think bitcoin is a ‘tower of death,’” Schiffer says. “It is going to result in the imminent death of your investment – a thermonuclear death.

 

“Right now we are looking at a financial bubble that is bigger than the tulip craze and I believe that we are headed for a bitcoin crash that will supersede any financial worries of the 21st century,” he added. “People are going to be shocked when they try to liquify their bitcoins.”

Schiffer might be right.

After all, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies don’t have any intrinsic value.  Essentially, they are nothing more than digital creations that only have value because people think they have value.

But those that got in back at the beginning and have cashed out now have made enormous amounts of money, and nobody can deny that.

With every form of “investing”, they are winners and there are losers.  Unfortunately, those that chose to jump in at the height of the madness could end up losing very big.  The following comes from Wolf Richter…

Betting on cryptos is a peculiar form of online gambling on a global scale that requires a consensus among participants that they only buy, and that you cannot ever cash out, and now that some folks are trying to cash out, the bets for everyone else are souring. The same dynamics that pushed prices up have reversed and are causing them to crash.

But what if the naysayers are wrong?

What if this current “Bitcoin crash” is just a bump in the road on the way to $40,000?

Years ago, the price of Bitcoin crashed 75 percent at one point.  What would have happened if the early investors had all bailed out then instead of holding on until now?

Those that sold Bitcoin at $12,000 might end up really kicking themselves if the price of Bitcoin does hit $40,000 by the end of next year, and that is exactly what some top experts are projecting…

Billionaire investors and highly respected analysts including hedge fund investor Mike Novogratz, prominent financial analyst Max Keiser, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the price of bitcoin will likely surpass the $40,000 margin by the end of 2018, and achieve a $1 trillion market cap.

And let us not forget that big names such as John McAfee and James Altucher are predicting that the price of Bitcoin will eventually reach one million dollars.

To me, this is absolutely fascinating.  On the one side, you have financial experts that believe that Bitcoin is going to zero, and on the other side you have financial experts that are projecting that someday a single Bitcoin will be worth one million dollars.

I don’t know which side will ultimately prevail, but it will be a lot of fun to watch how everything plays out.

*  *  *

Michael Snyder is a Republican candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

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According to the latest BLS data, average hourly wages for all US workers in November rose at a stubbornly low 2.5% relative to the previous year, well below the Fed’s “target” of 3.5-4.5%, as countless economists are unable to explain how 4.1% unemployment, and “no slack” in the economy fails to boost wage growth. Another problem with tepid wage growth, in addition to crush the Fed’s credibility, is that it keeps a lid on how much general price levels can rise by. With record debt, it has been the Fed’s imperative to boost inflation at any cost (or rather at a cost of $4.5 trillion) to inflate away the debt overhang, however weak wages have made this impossible.

Well, not really. Because a quick look at US housing shows that while wages may be growing at roughly 2.5%, according to the latest Case Shiller data, every single metro area in the US saw home prices grow at a higher rate, while 16 of 20 major U.S. cities experienced home price growth of 5% or higher: double the average wage growth, and something which even the NAR has been complaining about with its chief economist Larry Yun warning that as the disconnect between prices and wages become wider, homes become increasingly unaffordable.

And while this should not come as a surprise – considering we have pointed it out on numerous occasions in the past – one look at the chart below suggests that something strange is taking place in Seattle, which has either become “Vancouver South” when it comes to Chinese hot money laundering, or there is an unprecedented mini housing bubble in the hipster capital of the world. Also worth keeping an eye on: price appreciation in Sin City has quietly surged in recent months, and in September home prices surged 10.2% Y/Y, the only other double digit price increase in the US after Seattle. Considering that Las Vegas was the epicenter of the last housing bubble when prices exploded higher only to crash, it may be a good idea to keep a close eye on price tendencies in this metro area. 

Confirming the recent jump in home prices, at the national level in Octoner home prices for the Top 20 metro areas rose 6.4% YoY according to Case Shiller, the fastest rate since June 2014.

Finally, putting the above data in context, here are two charts courtesy of real-estate expert Mark Hanson, the first of which shows how much household income increase is needed to buy the median priced home in key US cities…

… while the next chart shows the divergence between actual household income, and the income needed to buy the median priced house.

 

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