Although Cannabis Consumers Who Own Firearms Are Federal Felons, Illinois Says They Can Keep Their Guns

Cannabis consumers in Illinois, where state-licensed marijuana dispensaries started serving recreational customers yesterday, will pay more in taxes than cannabis consumers in most other states that have legalized pot. But at least they do not have to worry that the state police will be coming for their guns, thanks to protections included in the 2019 law that allows adults 21 or older to purchase and use marijuana.

Federal law prohibits gun possession by any “unlawful user” of a controlled substance, including marijuana. When you buy a firearm from a federally licensed dealer, you have to fill out a form that asks, “Are you an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance?” The question includes a warning that “the use or possession of marijuana remains unlawful under Federal law regardless of whether it has been legalized or decriminalized for medicinal or recreational purposes in the state where you reside.”

A cannabis consumer who possesses a gun is committing a federal felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison. A cannabis consumer who answers “no” to the question about illegal drug use while buying a gun is committing another federal felony, punishable by up to five years in prison.

Illinois likewise prohibits anyone who has used an illegal drug during the past year from obtaining a firearm owner’s identification (FOID) card, which is required to legally own a gun in that state. But the Illinois Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act, which the state legislature passed last year, says “a person shall not be considered an unlawful user…solely as a result of his or her possession or use of cannabis or cannabis paraphernalia in accordance with this Act.” This week the Illinois State Police (ISP), which oversees the FOID program, confirmed in a Facebook post that, notwithstanding news reports to the contrary, it will not revoke cards “based solely on a person’s legal use of adult use cannabis.”

The ISP added that it “will revoke FOID cards where it is demonstrated that an individual is addicted to or is a habitual user of cannabis” (whatever that means). It also warned that “the use of cannabis is still considered to be illegal by the Federal government,” and “the purchase of a firearm from a federally licensed firearms dealer is governed by Federal law.” So is the possession of firearms or purchases from private sellers, although the ISP did not mention that.

What about the risk that buying marijuana from a state-licensed retailer will tip off the feds? The Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act says that “any identifying or personal information of a [marijuana] purchaser obtained or received in accordance with this Section shall not be retained, used, shared or disclosed for any purpose except as authorized by this Act.” Because of that provision, says Ed Sullivan, a former state legislator who is now a lobbyist for the Illinois State Rifle Association, “no cannabis dispensary can share your personal information, unless you authorize them, [with] anyone or any entity. This includes the Illinois State Police (ISP) and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives (ATF).”

Sullivan warns, however, that the federal government may have access to information about Illinois patients who participate in the state’s pre-existing medical marijuana program. “While Illinois treats cannabis as a prescribed drug, the Federal Government considers cannabis to be a Schedule I narcotic,” he writes. “As such, the Federal Government could gain access to your records as a Medical Cannabis User and therefore jeopardize your right to purchase a firearm from a Federal Firearm License[e].”

Sullivan concludes that buying marijuana from recreational dealers is a safer option for patients concerned about their Second Amendment rights. I’m not sure about that, since the Illinois Compassionate Use of Medical Cannabis Act promises that the list of registered patients will be kept “confidential,” to be shared only among the state agencies charged with carrying out the law. That law does require that the state’s prescription monitoring program “make a notation” that a patient is authorized to use medical marijuana “for the purposes of patient care,” but it also says “this confidential list may not be combined or linked in any manner with any other list or database except as provided in this Section.”

While both the Illinois State Police and Sullivan focus on gun purchases from federally licensed dealers, the federal law banning firearm possession by cannabis consumers also applies to private transfers, or even to continued gun ownership by someone who decides to try marijuana now that it’s legal in Illinois. That prohibition is pretty hard to enforce in those contexts, of course, but the fact remains that millions of gun owners are felons in the eyes of the federal government simply because they use an intoxicant that is legal in states accounting for more than a quarter of the country’s population.

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Helicopter Money Is Here: How The Fed Monetized Billions In Debt Sold Just Days Earlier

Helicopter Money Is Here: How The Fed Monetized Billions In Debt Sold Just Days Earlier

The Fed’s charter prohibits its from directly purchasing bonds or bills issued by the US Treasury: that process is also known as monetization and various Fed chairs have repeatedly testified under oath to Congress that the Fed does not do it. Of course, the alternative is what is known as “Helicopter Money”, when the central bank directly purchases bonds issued by the Treasury and forms the backbone of the MMT monetary cult.

But what if there is at a several day interval between Treasury issuance and subsequent purchase? Well, that’s perfectly legal, and it’s something the Fed has done not only during QE1, QE2 and QE3, but is continuing to do now as part of its “QE4/NOT QE.” 

Here’s how.

On December 16, the US Treasury sold $36 billion in T-Bills with a 182-day term, maturing on June 18, 2020, with CUSIP SV2. And, as shown in the Treasury Direct snapshot below, of the total $34.3 billion in competitive purchases, Dealers acquired $23.7 billion.

What happened next?

For the answer we go to the Fed’s POMO page, which shows which specific T-Bill CUSIPs were purchased by its markets desk on any given POMO day when Dealers sell up to $7.5 billion in Bills to the Fed.

Exhibit 1: on December 19, just three days after the above T-Bill was issued and on the very day the issue settled (Dec 19), Dealers flipped the same Bills they bought from the Treasury back to the Fed for an unknown markup. Specifically, of the $7.5BN in total POMO, the SV2 CUSIP which had been issued earlier that week, represented the biggest bond “put” to the Fed, amounting to $3.9 billion, more than half of the total POMO on that day, and by far the most of any CUSIP sold to the NY Fed’s markets desk on that day.

But wait, there’s more.

Exhibit 2: during the next POMO conducted the very next day, or December 20, and just four days after the issuance of T-Bill SV2, which as a reminder saw $23.7 billion in Dealer purchase, those same Dealers flipped more of the same Bills they “bought” from the Treasury back to the Fed. Why? To once again pocket the unspecific markup the Fed generously provided to them just because they are Dealers. Of the $7.5BN in total POMO held on Dec 20, the SV2 CUSIP once again represented the single biggest bond “put” to the Fed, amounting to $1.6 billion, the most of any CUSIP sold to the NY Fed’s markets desk on that day.

So what is going on? Well, for all those saying the US may soon unleash helicopter money, and/or MMT, we have some ‘news’: helicopter money is already here, and the Fed is now actively monetizing debt the Treasury sold just days earlier using Dealers as a conduit… a “conduit” which is generously rewarded by the Fed’s market desk with its marked up purchase price.

In other words, the Fed is already conducting Helicopter Money (and MMT) in all but name. As shown above, the Fed monetized T-Bills that were issued just three days earlier – and just because it is circumventing the one hurdle that prevents it from directly purchasing securities sold outright by the Treasury, the Fed is providing the Dealers that made this legal debt circle-jerk possible with millions in profits, even as the outcome is identical if merely offset by a few days. 

Perhaps during Fed Chair Powell’s next Congressional hearings, someone actually has the guts to ask the only question that matters: why is the Fed now monetizing US debt, and pretending it isn’t doing so just because it grants Dealers a 3-day “holding” period, for which it then rewards them generously?


Tyler Durden

Thu, 01/02/2020 – 13:31

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2020 Just Began, And Weird Things Are Already Starting To Happen All Over The World

2020 Just Began, And Weird Things Are Already Starting To Happen All Over The World

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Many of us are expecting 2020 to be a very unusual year, and it certainly didn’t take long for the weirdness to start. In this article I am going to share several examples of this weirdness with you, and I have a feeling that this is just the beginning of what we are going to experience over the next 12 months. We live at a time when the pace of change has reached at an exponential rate, and our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us. That makes this a perfect environment for weird stuff to happen, and that means that I will have no shortage of things to write about in the coming days.

I would like to start off by discussing the really bizarre phenomenon that is happening in the skies over Colorado and Nebraska right now. According to the New York Times, hordes of sophisticated drones have been “flying in precise formations” over those two states at night and nobody knows where they are from…

They come in the night: Drones — lots of them — flying in precise formations over the Colorado and Nebraska prairie.

Why are they there? Unclear.

“It’s creepy,” said Missy Blackman, who saw three drones hovering over her farm outside Palisade, Neb., on a recent evening, including one that lingered right above her house. “I have a lot of questions of why and what are they, and nobody seems to have any answers.”

One or two unidentified drones is not a big deal, but we are talking about hundreds and potentially even thousands of drones that are operating in coordination with one another, and nobody has any idea who owns them.

According to the Denver Post, these very large drones “have 6-foot wingspans and spend the nighttime hours flying in grid-like patterns”…

The sheriffs of Lincoln, Washington and Sedgwick counties told The Denver Post on Friday that their offices have been getting calls this week about the unknown winged devices, days after initial reports out of Phillips and Yuma counties caused a national stir.

Local and national authorities say they have no idea who is operating the groups of large drones, reported to have 6-foot wingspans and spend the nighttime hours flying in grid-like patterns.

Needless to say, this phenomenon is freaking a lot of people out, and it is spawning all sorts of theories

While the powers that be have no answers, the mystery aircraft have inspired a wide range of theories online. It has to be the work of a Mexican drug cartel, one commenter on The Post’s website said. No, no — it’s obviously aliens from a far-off galaxy, another replied. Perhaps it’s the History Channel looking for lost cities, or ranchers trying to track their cows, others theorized.

If you live in Colorado or Nebraska and you have seen these drones, please send me some photos.

I would like to get to the bottom of this, because this is extremely alarming.

On a lighter note, over in Washington state officers recently “spent 10 hours” digging out vehicles that had literally been engulfed by giant tumbleweeds…

State troopers in Washington state spent 10 hours digging cars and a semi-truck out from under hills of tumbleweeds that flooded a road on New Year’s Eve in an event being dubbed “Tumblegeddon.”

Washington State Patrol Trooper Chris Thorson told USA TODAY on Tuesday that his district began receiving 911 calls around 6:30 p.m. local time about tumbleweeds blocking the roadway in an area about 20 miles west of Richland, one of the state’s Tri-Cities.

That particular area of Washington state does have to deal with tumbleweeds, but Washington State Patrol Trooper Chris Thorson has never seen things anywhere close to this bad. According to him, “a strange mixture of weather and circumstances” created just the right conditions for something like this to happen…

“Visibility was bad, which caused cars to slow down,” he said. “When they stopped, the tumbleweeds were piling so fast, they just fully engulfed in minutes. It’s kind a strange mixture of weather and circumstances.

“I don’t know how to really explain it,” he added. “It’s just odd. It’s so odd because it doesn’t happen. Typically, 99 percent of the time, you can drive through tumbleweeds.”

Meanwhile, down in southern Australia they are dealing with colossal wildfires that are unlike anything they have ever experienced before. These fires are so massive that they are actually creating their own weather. The thunderstorms that have been spawned as a result create even more fires, and embers are being pushed out by high winds over a very large area. At one point, thousands of people were forced to take refuge along the beaches because the fire had cut off all other escape routes

Thousands of holidaymakers and locals were forced to flee to beaches in fire-ravaged southeast Australia Tuesday, as deadly blazes ripped through popular tourist areas and cut off several towns.

In fire-encircled seaside communities along a 200-kilometre (135-mile) strip of coast, terrified people — wrapped in blankets and make-shift facemasks — sought refuge near the water.

As they covered their faces with anything that was available, they huddled along the shore under “an eerie orange sky” as they waited to see what would happen…

Dozens of fires continue to burn out of control in the states of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW). Thousands more people were forced to evacuate their homes along the NSW coast on Tuesday, which is dotted with small beach towns popular with holiday-makers over the Christmas season.

In Batemans Bay, NSW, hundreds of families fled their homes Tuesday under an eerie orange sky. “It was like we were in hell,” vacationer Zoe Simmons told CNN. “We were all covered in ash.”

Of course firefighters are doing all they can to battle these enormous blazes, and quite a few of them have already perished.

One video that shows a raging fire overtaking a fire truck with the crew still inside has already been viewed more than four million times on Twitter.

On the other side of the world, unusually cold and snowy weather is making headlines. In fact, we are being told that some parts of the UK could be about to get as much as 20 inches of snow

A cold band of weather will hit Norway later this month, bringing with it the potential of snow, ice and potentially sub-zero conditions. Such is the low-temperature forecast, that some reports have stated temperatures will drop to as low as -3C (26.6F) which could potentially drift across the North Sea towards the UK.

Moreover, in a model produced by WX Charts, the snow falling across the UK could be as much as 20 inches (50cm).

In middle America such a storm would not be unusual, but for the UK this is definitely weird.

Unfortunately, things are likely to get even weirder in the weeks and months ahead. Our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, global weather patterns are getting really crazy, we are on the precipice of war in the Middle East, the fabric of society is unraveling all over the world, and we have never been more primed for an economic meltdown than we are right now.

So buckle up and hold on tight, because the ride ahead is not going to be smooth.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 01/02/2020 – 13:12

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Libyan Rebels Shoot Down Turkish Plane Moments After Ankara Approves Sending Troops

Libyan Rebels Shoot Down Turkish Plane Moments After Ankara Approves Sending Troops

A mere hours after Turkey’s parliament in an emergency session voted to authorize its military to send troops to war-torn Libya in order to stave off advancing pro-Haftar forces on the capital, there are new reports rebel forces have downed a Turkish plane, likely a drone, south of Tripoli

Benghazi-based General Khalifa Haftar had already long ago essentially declared he would enforce a No Fly Zone for all foreign aircraft, especially Turkish aircraft. 

Sky News Arabia was the first to report Thursday: “Based on our sources, the Libyan army shoots down Turkish plane to the south of the capital Tripoli.”

File image of recent fighting in Tripoli, via Reuters.

And in a statement immediately after the Turkish aircraft downing of what appears to be a UAV drone, a spokesman for Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), said according to Sky News:

We reject the existence of any foreign power in Libya no matter what.

Though details are as yet unclear, if confirmed it would be the second Turkish military aircraft within three weeks brought down by the LNA, after a drone was shot down on Dec.14

The timing is clearly meant to send a message given earlier in the day Turkish lawmakers approved a controversial motion (325 to 184) at an emergency session to grant a one-year mandate for troop deployment to fight advancing Haftar forces.

Image via Turkey’s Ahval News

The LNA has lately been successful in imposing its no-fly zone in Ain Zara axis, south of Tripoli, according to local sources. 

Turkish media reports have lately confirmed rumors that Turkey has already established a drone base in a Tripoli suburb to bolster air support to the GNA government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 01/02/2020 – 12:51

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Bitcoin Kicks Off 2020 More Secure Than Ever As Hash Rate Hits Record

Bitcoin Kicks Off 2020 More Secure Than Ever As Hash Rate Hits Record

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin has already hit a new record in 2020 as the cryptocurrency’s network hash rate once again topped previous all-time highs

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Data from multiple monitoring resources including Blockchain and Coin Dance confirmed hash rate was higher than ever on the first day of the new year. 

Estimates point to an all-time high for BTC network

A measure of the computing power devoted to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, hash rate spent much of 2019 in a continuous growth cycle. Only for a brief period in Q3 did the upward trend level off.

Strong hash rate suggests Bitcoin is a more appealing proposition for miners – more mining power translates into better network security and robustness against potential attacks.

According to Blockchain, the metric hit 119 quintillion hashes per second (h/s) on Jan. 1.

Bitcoin 1-year network hash rate. Source: Blockchain

Coin Dance’s figures are different, with 143 quintillion h/s recorded for the same date.

Bitcoin 14-month network hash rate. Source: Coin Dance

Markets await “price follows hash rate”

The reason for the variation lies in the fact that the hash rate is all but impossible to measure in real terms. Resources can only analyze recent network activity and from that create an estimate of presumed hash rate. 

In September, what appeared to be an overnight 40% drop in hash rate was subsequently attributed to the way it is calculated. 

The recent records have further come independent of Bitcoin price action. BTC/USD fluctuated between $3,100 and $13,800 last year, but the hash rate trend endured. 

Commentators, including Keiser Report host Max Keiser, have also claimed that hash rate highs will ultimately produce new Bitcoin price highs.

At press time, the pair traded at just above $7,100, down around 3% over the three days covering the hash rate record.

Bitcoin has recently set other technical records, which Cointelegraph reported last week.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 01/02/2020 – 12:32

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Illinois Spent the Last Decade Losing Population and Learning Nothing

The 2010s will likely end up being a lost decade for Illinois. I mean that literally: According to U.S. census data, the state has lost population for six years in a row.

The Chicago Tribune reports that the state has lost 1.2 percent of its population—159,700 people—over the course of the decade. (In 2019, its population declined by about 51,250, a drop of .4 percent.) Illinois lost more residents in the 2010s than any other state, though West Virginia lost a larger share of its residents.

In the process, Illinois slipped from being the fifth-largest state to the sixth, with Pennsylvania overtaking it in 2017. It is likely to lose at least one congressional seat after the next census.

It’s easy to lay the blame for this on Chicago’s dangerous reputation, but for the past three years violent crime has been on the decline in the Windy City. Violent crime levels there are back down to where they were in 2015. From 2018 to 2019 the city saw a 10 percent drop in overall crime. And Chicago at a 20-year low in robberies, burglaries, and carjackings.

But the state’s finances and debt are a disaster area. The state spends 25 percent of its revenues on pensions, and several cities (including Chicago) want pension bailouts. That, of course, would just shift the burdens of these cities’ problems statewide. (Chicago is the biggest offender here, with about $42 billion in pension debt across its various public employee funds.) Taxes are already incredibly high in Illinois, and they keep going up further—the state imposed or increased 20 taxes in 2019, from a gas tax hike to a new levy on now-legal cannabis sales.

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who hopes to replace the state’s flat tax with a progressive tax, hilariously tried to insist that things are nevertheless getting better in the state, providing this statement to the Chicago Tribune:

Illinois’ unemployment rate is at a historic low and we are continuing to create jobs in every region of the state. Illinois is back and the Pritzker administration is proving that when you build relationships, work together and focus on solutions you can create positive change.

You have to wonder whether anybody there made the connection between the state’s dropping unemployment rate and the state’s drop in population.

And if they’re hoping marijuana tax revenues will make up for the massive budget holes, Illinois is in for a major disappointment. Tax demands for legal marijuana providers in Illinois are extremely high, and pot prices will likely be double those of nearby Michigan (which has also launched legal recreational sales). Illinois’ weed taxes aren’t quite as high as the ones in California, but it’s still notable that the Golden State’s high taxes mean the state is bringing in less than a third of its projected tax revenues from legal sales. Indeed, in California around 80 percent of all marijuana sales are still on the black market.

The Illinois authorities are predicting $57 million in tax revenue for the first six months of marijuana sales, and they expect to get $500 million annually within five years. That’s probably not a reasonable expectation, given what’s happening in California. And in any event, that much revenue is just a drop in the bucket of the state’s estimated $137 billion in pension obligations.

Illinois spent much of 2010 serving as a warning that states cannot tax themselves into prosperity and cannot thrive by using so much of their budget to line the pockets of government employees. Will this be the decade that the state learns its own lessons?

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Illinois Spent the Last Decade Losing Population and Learning Nothing

The 2010s will likely end up being a lost decade for Illinois. I mean that literally: According to U.S. census data, the state has lost population for six years in a row.

The Chicago Tribune reports that the state has lost 1.2 percent of its population—159,700 people—over the course of the decade. (In 2019, its population declined by about 51,250, a drop of .4 percent.) Illinois lost more residents in the 2010s than any other state, though West Virginia lost a larger share of its residents.

In the process, Illinois slipped from being the fifth-largest state to the sixth, with Pennsylvania overtaking it in 2017. It is likely to lose at least one congressional seat after the next census.

It’s easy to lay the blame for this on Chicago’s dangerous reputation, but for the past three years violent crime has been on the decline in the Windy City. Violent crime levels there are back down to where they were in 2015. From 2018 to 2019 the city saw a 10 percent drop in overall crime. And Chicago at a 20-year low in robberies, burglaries, and carjackings.

But the state’s finances and debt are a disaster area. The state spends 25 percent of its revenues on pensions, and several cities (including Chicago) want pension bailouts. That, of course, would just shift the burdens of these cities’ problems statewide. (Chicago is the biggest offender here, with about $42 billion in pension debt across its various public employee funds.) Taxes are already incredibly high in Illinois, and they keep going up further—the state imposed or increased 20 taxes in 2019, from a gas tax hike to a new levy on now-legal cannabis sales.

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who hopes to replace the state’s flat tax with a progressive tax, hilariously tried to insist that things are nevertheless getting better in the state, providing this statement to the Chicago Tribune:

Illinois’ unemployment rate is at a historic low and we are continuing to create jobs in every region of the state. Illinois is back and the Pritzker administration is proving that when you build relationships, work together and focus on solutions you can create positive change.

You have to wonder whether anybody there made the connection between the state’s dropping unemployment rate and the state’s drop in population.

And if they’re hoping marijuana tax revenues will make up for the massive budget holes, Illinois is in for a major disappointment. Tax demands for legal marijuana providers in Illinois are extremely high, and pot prices will likely be double those of nearby Michigan (which has also launched legal recreational sales). Illinois’ weed taxes aren’t quite as high as the ones in California, but it’s still notable that the Golden State’s high taxes mean the state is bringing in less than a third of its projected tax revenues from legal sales. Indeed, in California around 80 percent of all marijuana sales are still on the black market.

The Illinois authorities are predicting $57 million in tax revenue for the first six months of marijuana sales, and they expect to get $500 million annually within five years. That’s probably not a reasonable expectation, given what’s happening in California. And in any event, that much revenue is just a drop in the bucket of the state’s estimated $137 billion in pension obligations.

Illinois spent much of 2010 serving as a warning that states cannot tax themselves into prosperity and cannot thrive by using so much of their budget to line the pockets of government employees. Will this be the decade that the state learns its own lessons?

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Turkey’s Parliament Authorizes Military To Deploy Troops In Libya

Turkey’s Parliament Authorizes Military To Deploy Troops In Libya

At a moment pro-Haftar Libyan forces have reportedly made advanced near Tripoli International Airport, Turkey’s parliament has voted to approve Erdogan’s next controversial foreign military adventure — sending troops to Libya to bolster the government under Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj based in Tripoli. 

Turkish lawmakers approved the motion (325 to 184) at an emergency session on Thursday to grant a one-year mandate for troop deployment, despite the clearly ratcheting destabilization in the North African country which has been in essentially a state of anarchy since US-NATO regime change aimed at decades-long ruler Muammar Gaddafi.

Illustrative file image via South Front. 

GNA prime minister Sarraj made the request of Erdogan’s government last month, after the two leaders signed a maritime boundary and military cooperation deal that’s been hotly contested by other regional countries like Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus.

Interestingly, among the key arguments that supporters of deeper Libya involvement advanced during Thursday’s parliament vote is that national security would be weakened by continued fighting in Libya. “A Libya whose legal government is under threat can spread instability to Turkey,” ruling party legislator Ismet Yilmaz argued. “Those who shy away from taking steps on grounds that there is a risk will throw our children into a greater danger.”

Turkey’s main opposition party, CHP, argued that it would unnecessarily embroil the country into a complicated conflict with no end in sight that would inevitably contribute to the further “shedding of Muslim blood.” One option considered is to simply expand Turkish military training to GNA Libyan troops. 

It’s as yet unclear just how many troops Erdogan has in mind, but likely it would be in the thousands to make a difference against advancing Haftar’s army, who weeks ago declared the ‘final’ and ‘decisive’ offensive on Tripoli was on. 

Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay said to state-run media Turkey is prepared to send “the necessary number (of troops) whenever there is a need”; however, he also suggested there would be no need to the battlefield tide turns decisively in favor of the GNA. “If the other side adopts a different stance and says ‘OK, we are withdrawing, we are backing down,’ then why would we go?” Oktay said.

Turkish-backed FSA fighters from Syria have already been seen in Libya. Image via The National.

Already for years Ankara has poured military hardware into Tripoli hoping to assist the GNA in pushing pack the long advance across the country of Haftar’s GNA. And there are widespread reports and some video evidence confirming Turkish-backed Syrian ‘rebels’ from FSA factions (TFSA) are on the ground fighting on behalf of Tripoli

Meanwhile, Gen. Haftar long ago issued an order to his forces to shoot down any unauthorized foreign aircraft, specifically targeting Turkish military aircraft and drones, which naturally raises the question: will Turkish escalation spiral out of control (akin to Syria) the moment Turkish units begin taking on casualties? 

As we observed last week, the whole bizarre Turkish intervention appears to be a “Syrian arms ratline in reverse” scenario, given that Erdogan’s Turkey has for years overseen a Libya-to-Turkey-to-Syria arms “rat line” which saw both heavy weaponry and jihadists fighters transported for the purpose of toppling Assad. But now with Erdogan’s eyes set on defeating the Benghazi-based Gen. Haftar, it appears this arms and jihadist rat line has conveniently been reversed.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 01/02/2020 – 12:11

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Military-Intellectual Complex Looks Forward to More War in 2020

The foreign policy experts have seen the shadow of American empire, and so more war is on the way. Welcome to Groundhog Day: Endless War Edition.

In an annual survey conducted by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), foreign policy experts are asked to rank 30 potential conflicts that could could require American military action in the new year. This year, the brave men and women of the foreign policy establishment say only two of those 30 conflicts have a “low likelihood” of occurring.

“Perhaps as an indication of rising concern about the state of the world, respondents rated more threats as likely to require a U.S. military response for 2020 than in any other Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) from the last eleven years,” explained Paul B. Stares, director of the CFR’s Center for Preventative Action.

Indeed, protesters stormed the U.S. embassy in Baghdad during the final hours of 2019, protesting American airstrikes against an Iranian-backed militia group operating in what’s left of Iraq. In response, President Donald Trump deployed 750 additional American troops to Baghdad and is reportedly considering sending another 4,000 troops to the Middle East.

All of this could be a prelude to war with Iran. Both Trump and his former national security advisor, John Bolton, have pinned all of the blame for this week’s Baghdad protests on Iran, though there are plenty of reasons for Iraqis to be angry with America’s continued presence in their country.

The potential for conflict with Iran stands out in the CFR survey as well. “Only one conflict was ranked as having a high impact on the United States: an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies,” the think tank reports.

Alongside the potential war with Iran, the group lists 12 other conflicts that are “identified as top priorities for the United States next year.” Calling them “top priorities” kind of gives away the game, no?

Those other “top priorities” include a major terrorist attack on the United States or a close ally, a crisis on the Korean peninsula, a maritime conflict with China in the South China Sea, and increased Russian aggression into Ukraine.

Also on the list: “Increasing political instability in Iraq exacerbated by underlying sectarian tensions and worsening economic conditions.” Keep in mind, this is from a survey published by the “Center for Preventative Action.” If only there was something the U.S. could have done to prevent Iraq’s collapse into turmoil, the special forces of American foreign policy-making tell us.

Recall, too, that the CFR’s Middle East director in 2002 backed what she said was a “strategically sound” plan to invade Iraq in the first place.

Still, 2020 does look like it could be a particularly fraught year for America’s foreign policy. Iraq is still a mess. The most realistic outcome in Afghanistan is that Washington will eventually turn the country over to the Taliban—the group we’ve spent 19 years fighting. And despite two decades of failed interventions, there will always be esteemed people calling for America to shed more blood and treasure over conflicts that have little to do with keeping Americans safe. The CFR survey certainly makes that clear.

The wild card in all this is Donald Trump. Though he has so far avoided outright war with Iran, the president has also failed to follow through on his ruminations about ending America’s long-term engagements in the Middle East and bringing the troops home. As he gears up to run for re-election, it’s not difficult to imagine the foreign policy establishment whispering in his ear that foreign wars can be good for his domestic political prospects.

Believing them would be a mistake. Trump got elected in 2016 in part by running against America’s bipartisan foreign policy consensus—voters picked him over both a Bush and a Clinton, after all. And if his re-election campaign is going to tout “Promises Kept,” he probably can’t afford to launch a new war.

For that matter, the country can’t afford it either. We’re $23 trillion in debt.

But money spent and lives lost don’t seem to matter to foreign policy experts in Washington. When you’re paid to hawk hammers, everything is a potential nail.

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Military-Intellectual Complex Looks Forward to More War in 2020

The foreign policy experts have seen the shadow of American empire, and so more war is on the way. Welcome to Groundhog Day: Endless War Edition.

In an annual survey conducted by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), foreign policy experts are asked to rank 30 potential conflicts that could could require American military action in the new year. This year, the brave men and women of the foreign policy establishment say only two of those 30 conflicts have a “low likelihood” of occurring.

“Perhaps as an indication of rising concern about the state of the world, respondents rated more threats as likely to require a U.S. military response for 2020 than in any other Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) from the last eleven years,” explained Paul B. Stares, director of the CFR’s Center for Preventative Action.

Indeed, protesters stormed the U.S. embassy in Baghdad during the final hours of 2019, protesting American airstrikes against an Iranian-backed militia group operating in what’s left of Iraq. In response, President Donald Trump deployed 750 additional American troops to Baghdad and is reportedly considering sending another 4,000 troops to the Middle East.

All of this could be a prelude to war with Iran. Both Trump and his former national security advisor, John Bolton, have pinned all of the blame for this week’s Baghdad protests on Iran, though there are plenty of reasons for Iraqis to be angry with America’s continued presence in their country.

The potential for conflict with Iran stands out in the CFR survey as well. “Only one conflict was ranked as having a high impact on the United States: an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies,” the think tank reports.

Alongside the potential war with Iran, the group lists 12 other conflicts that are “identified as top priorities for the United States next year.” Calling them “top priorities” kind of gives away the game, no?

Those other “top priorities” include a major terrorist attack on the United States or a close ally, a crisis on the Korean peninsula, a maritime conflict with China in the South China Sea, and increased Russian aggression into Ukraine.

Also on the list: “Increasing political instability in Iraq exacerbated by underlying sectarian tensions and worsening economic conditions.” Keep in mind, this is from a survey published by the “Center for Preventative Action.” If only there was something the U.S. could have done to prevent Iraq’s collapse into turmoil, the special forces of American foreign policy-making tell us.

Recall, too, that the CFR’s Middle East director in 2002 backed what she said was a “strategically sound” plan to invade Iraq in the first place.

Still, 2020 does look like it could be a particularly fraught year for America’s foreign policy. Iraq is still a mess. The most realistic outcome in Afghanistan is that Washington will eventually turn the country over to the Taliban—the group we’ve spent 19 years fighting. And despite two decades of failed interventions, there will always be esteemed people calling for America to shed more blood and treasure over conflicts that have little to do with keeping Americans safe. The CFR survey certainly makes that clear.

The wild card in all this is Donald Trump. Though he has so far avoided outright war with Iran, the president has also failed to follow through on his ruminations about ending America’s long-term engagements in the Middle East and bringing the troops home. As he gears up to run for re-election, it’s not difficult to imagine the foreign policy establishment whispering in his ear that foreign wars can be good for his domestic political prospects.

Believing them would be a mistake. Trump got elected in 2016 in part by running against America’s bipartisan foreign policy consensus—voters picked him over both a Bush and a Clinton, after all. And if his re-election campaign is going to tout “Promises Kept,” he probably can’t afford to launch a new war.

For that matter, the country can’t afford it either. We’re $23 trillion in debt.

But money spent and lives lost don’t seem to matter to foreign policy experts in Washington. When you’re paid to hawk hammers, everything is a potential nail.

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