Calling Neighbor “Slum Lord” on Facebook Found to Be Constitutionally Protected Opinion

From Bauer v. Brinkman, decided Monday by the Iowa Court of Appeals (in an opinion by Judge Paul Ahlers, joined by Chief Judge Thomas Bower and Judge David May):

The Kendall R. Bauer Trust owns an apartment building in Sloan, Iowa, known as the Bauer Apartments. The trustee of the trust, Richard Bauer, … manages the apartment building. K.L. … owns and operates a dog grooming and boarding business. As part of that business, she began construction on a dog care facility in a lot adjacent to the Bauer Apartments.

During the course of the construction of the dog care facility, Bauer contacted K.L. to express concerns that the outdoor “dog run” may become a nuisance issue and could be in violation of Sloan’s zoning ordinance. Bauer also contacted the Sloan city council about his concerns. When his concerns were not addressed to his satisfaction, Bauer filed suit against the city, alleging the city failed to enforce its zoning ordinances.

During the pendency of Bauer’s lawsuit against the city, K.L. took to airing her disgruntlement with the situation on Facebook, posting comments about Bauer, Bauer Apartments, and the dispute regarding construction of the dog care facility. K.L.’s adult daughter joined the Facebook fray, as did the defendant, Bradley Brinkman. It was Brinkman’s commentary that resulted in this lawsuit, as Brinkman posted the following comment:

It is because of shit like this that I need to run for mayor! Mr. Bauer, you sir are a PIECE OF SHIT!!! Let’s not sugar coat things here people, [K.L.] runs a respectable business in this town! You sir are nothing more than a Slum Lord! Period. I would love for you to walk across the street to the east of your ooh so precious property and discuss this with me!

Bauer filed suit against Brinkman alleging Brinkman’s statement that Bauer is a “slum lord” constituted libel….

Drawing the line between opinion and fact … is important because opinions are “absolutely protected under the first amendment.” Because drawing this line involves important first amendment issues, its determination is one for the court rather than the fact finder…. To make this determination, courts look to four factors: (1) whether the “statement ‘has a precise core of meaning for which a consensus of understanding exists or, conversely, whether the statement is indefinite and ambiguous'”; (2) the degree to which the statement is “objectively capable of proof or disproof”; (3) “the context in which the” statement occurs; and (4) “the broader social context into which” the statement fits.

We begin our analysis of the first two factors by noting that the term “slum lord” is not defined in Brinkman’s Facebook post. Nevertheless, a legal dictionary defines the term to mean, “A real-property owner who rents substandard housing units in a crowded, economically depressed area and allows the units to fall into further disrepair, esp. while charging unfairly high rents,” or simply “the owner of any run-down rental property.” …

While slum lord is capable of a definite meaning, its appearance in Brinkman’s comment is vague enough that a reader of the post would be left to use his or her own definition, which would result in the term meaning different things to different people. This indefiniteness as to the meaning of the term cuts against a conclusion that it was a statement of fact. Further, the above definitions are not particularly capable of objective proof or disproof ….

Additionally, Brinkman’s comment that Bauer is a “slum lord” followed on the heels of calling Bauer a “piece of shit.” While understandably offensive and insulting, this type of name calling is generally not actionable….

“The common law has always differentiated sharply between genuinely defamatory communications as opposed to obscenities, vulgarities, insults, epithets, name-calling, and other verbal abuse. It has thus been held that a libel does not occur simply because the subject of the publication finds the publication annoying, offensive, or embarrassing. …

“No matter how mean or vulgar, such language is not defamatory. It is not defamatory, for example, to call someone a ‘bastard,’ or a ‘son of a bitch,’ or an ‘idiot.’ No matter how obnoxious, insulting, or tasteless such name-calling, it is regarded as a part of life for which the law of defamation affords no remedy.”

Given the nebulous nature of the term “slum lord,” standing alone as it was in this case, the first two factors cut in favor of the statement being that of opinion rather than fact.

Having determined the first two factors cut in favor of finding Brinkman’s words to constitute nonactionable opinion rather than fact, we turn to the last two factors. These factors cause us to consider the fact that Brinkman’s statement was made on Facebook and the context within which it was made on that social media platform in determining whether the statement was opinion protected by the first amendment….

The statements were made by adding to a chain of comments started between private individuals expressing disgruntlement over Bauer’s dispute with the city regarding K.L.’s dog care facility. The message chain was not related to a news account or any other form of communication that purported to be fact based. Instead, it was clearly an exchange of opinions about the topic at hand. Brinkman’s comments did not purport to interject facts to the discussion, but, instead, merely added to the string of expressed opinions. The comments focused on the dispute over K.L.’s dog care facility and not on Bauer’s rental property.

We conclude that anyone viewing Brinkman’s comments would have viewed them as nothing more than expressions of Brinkman’s opinions, rather than a declaration of facts. Viewed in this context, the last two factors of the analysis join the first two factors in cutting in favor of a finding that Brinkman’s statements were opinions rather than facts.

To be clear, we are not saying that statements made on Facebook or other social media forums cannot be defamatory as a categorical rule. Rather, we are acknowledging that, when alleged defamatory statements are made on a social media platform, the forum in which the statements were made is a contextual factor to consider in determining whether the statements are an expression of opinion or fact. In this case, we find the context of the postings on Facebook contribute to the conclusion Brinkman’s statements were those of opinion and are thus protected by the first amendment….

Quite right, I think.

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It’s $25,000 Challenge Grant Time in Reason’s Annual Webathon!

Reason50

Here in the opening half of Reason‘s annual Webathon, in which we ask you, dear readers and listeners and viewers, to consider making a tax-deductible donation to the nonprofit foundation that makes all of our work possible (and does other great stuff besides), I thought it might be fun to take a trip down memory lane and appreciate together how far you’ve helped us come since our first modest little cup-rattle back in 2008. But first….

WON’T YOU PRETTY PLEASE DONATE TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW??

How far have we come in 12 years? Well, see that orange box in the upper right of this page, with its 355 donors and $61,000 in donations after 48 hours? That’s already more Webathon loot than we raised in each of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. But wait, there’s more!

In that first year, our bell-ringing produced a grand total of $13,000. On this very day in 2020, by contrast, we are announcing a special challenge grant of nearly double that!

That’s right, there is a married couple dear to our hearts, with a last name bearing a familial resemblance to my own, who today are announcing a $25,000 challenge grant. That means: If you donate $10, we magically get $20. If you stroke us a check for $24,999, then (beep-boop, beep-boop)…damn near 50 large! Lookit all that math!

Please double the impact of your money by donating to Reason today!

This money does something far more important even than nurturing Peter Suderman’s cocktail habit, Katherine Mangu-Ward’s pot brownie recipes, or granting C.J. Ciaramella extra license to write about Dungeons & Dragons. This allows …(inhales deeply)…Reason to stay Reason.

Here’s what I mean by that. On a purely functional level, your generosity—1,300 of you gave us $370,000 during our Webathon last year!—allows us to stay in business, which is no small thing in the world of opinion magazines. We no longer count among our publishing brethren The Weekly Standard (shuttered in 2018), Governing (2019), or, uh, the International Socialist Review (2019). Take that, commies!

But just as importantly, having a diversity and depth of funding sources make us almost unnaturally resilient and consistent over time. No head-snapping editorial zig-zags for us.

Consider this: Just 16 days ago on The Reason Roundtable podcast, the magazine’s editors in chief of the past two decades spent some quality time talking about the newest book from a Reason editor in chief from the decade before that. That’s 30 years of a magazine’s leadership happily exchanging ideas based on the same broad frames of reference.

Now let’s compare that continuity to the tumult at, say, The New Republic, the progressive warhorse that when we began doing these Webathons was still run by lefty-tweaking hawk Marty Peretz and edited by Franklin Foer. Peretz replaced Foer with Richard Just in 2010, then sold the magazine in 2012 to babyfaced Facebook billionaire Chris Hughes, who re-hired Foer, then so quickly purged the mag of its contrarian past that Peretz soon lamented in The Wall Street Journal that “I don’t recognize the magazine I used to own.” By the end of 2014 there were so many editorial changes and publishing pivots and staff revolts that I headlined one Webathon post that year, “Donate to Reason! Because Jesus Christ, We Sure Aren’t The New Republic!” The Hughes era ended in 2016, and TNR is now on its seventh editor change over a span that Reason has had all of two.

I do not for one moment mean to pick on our journalistic frenemies, but rather to use their turmoil as an object lesson in the advantages of our funding model, and its dependence especially on you. As I wrote back when TNR staffers were still hi-fiving about all the new money, and media columnists were gushing over the exciting fate of the onetime “in-flight magazine of Air Force One,” I made this point about publications in our category:

Political magazines, which as a rule do not cover expenses through subscriptions and advertising, have two basic ownership models: Get an ideologically and/or culturally sympatico rich person (or “vanity mogul,” in Jack Shafer’s memorable phrasing) to subsidize the losses, or just organize as a nonprofit (Reason chose the latter road decades ago).

There are plusses and minuses to both–as Shafer points out, “Hughes should be able to sustain the magazine’s annual losses—which Anne Peretz, the ex-wife of former owner Martin Peretz put at $3 million a year—for a couple of hundred years after his death”—but one aspect I certainly enjoy about the Reason way is that it is literally impossible for a single person (let alone a single person with deep political connections to the sitting U.S. president) to impose his or her will on the editorial decisions of a normally configured nonprofit publication. The basic editorial thrust is therefore much more resilient and consistent in the long term, much less subject to the temporal whims and temper tantrums of a lone deep-pocketed journalistic novice.

Your donations, and the sheer number of you donating, amounts to force protection against this editorial enterprise suddenly rendering itself unrecognizable based on the direction of the wind—of anybody‘s wind.

Do you derive value and perhaps even occasional pleasure at having a consistent (if consistently weird) libertarian voice working in the fields of journalism and commentary, while constantly expanding its reach and impact? Do you enjoy doubling the impact of your dollar? If so, please consider DONATING TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW!

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“We Saw 10 Ambulances Driving To The Scene” – Port Warehouse Explodes In Bristol, “Multiple Casualties” Reported

“We Saw 10 Ambulances Driving To The Scene” – Port Warehouse Explodes In Bristol, “Multiple Casualties” Reported

Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/03/2020 – 09:20

Another port warehouse has exploded, this time in the British city of Bristol, in the outer neighborhood of Avonmouth, where the city’s port is located.

Emergency services from across the region are responding to the scene, with South Western Ambulance Service saying it was responding to a “serious incident.”

According to the BBC, a witness reported a “very loud explosion” that “shook buildings”, and another said they saw “around 10 ambulances driving to the scene”.

Avon Fire and Rescue Service said there were “multiple casualties”, although they could not say exactly how many. Only one has been confirmed so far, but more are expected.

Witness Jawad Burhan, who took a photo appearing to show a tank that had exploded, said there was a “helicopter looking for missing people”.

“I heard the sound, I’m working beside the building in another warehouse. “After ten minutes I saw the helicopter coming and the police,” he added.

It appears the explosion occurred at or near an industrial recycling center, and Bristol Waste, which runs the nearby Avonmouth recycling center, tweeted it had closed the site temporarily.

According to the AP, Avon Fire and Rescue Service has also been called to the scene.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JEHmyn Tyler Durden

US Orders Draw Down From US Embassy Baghdad Until Trump Leaves Office

US Orders Draw Down From US Embassy Baghdad Until Trump Leaves Office

Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/03/2020 – 09:05

The United States is taking significant steps to shield its personnel from any potential retaliation attack in the Middle East, on Wednesday ordering a temporary draw down from the embassy in Baghdad until President Trump leaves office

This involves up to half of all diplomatic personnel leaving at a moment of soaring tensions with Iran following last week’s assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, after which Tehran swore revenge.

US Embassy in Baghdad, via NY Times

Iranian leaders have blamed primarily Israel and the opposition proxy group MEK, the latter which for decades has sought the violent overthrow of the Ayatollah, but also have strongly suggested US assistance to the covert plot as well.

The move is based on fears of near-term attacks on the embassy or diplomats, as Iraqi officials told AFP: “It’s a minor drawdown based on security reservations from the US side. They could come back — it’s just a security blip,” according to a source.

There’s lately been an uptick in rocket fire on the embassy and Green Zone, including last month, which have been widely blamed on the powerful Iraqi Shia militias backed by Iran.

This is precisely what happened after the last January US killing of IRGC Quds Force Gen. Qasem Soleimani. 

He was killed alongside Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, the leader of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Force (PMF). All of this enraged Iraq’s majority Shia population, leading to mass street protests demanding an immediate American exit from the country.

Further, after the killing of Soleimani under a year ago Iran launched ballistic missile strikes on American bases in Iraq. Though there were no reported deaths, it’s believed that over 100 US troops suffered Traumatic Brain Injury due to the large-scale blasts. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39EZKSG Tyler Durden

Calling Neighbor “Slum Lord” on Facebook Found to Be Constitutionally Protected Opinion

From Bauer v. Brinkman, decided Monday by the Iowa Court of Appeals (in an opinion by Judge Paul Ahlers, joined by Chief Judge Thomas Bower and Judge David May):

The Kendall R. Bauer Trust owns an apartment building in Sloan, Iowa, known as the Bauer Apartments. The trustee of the trust, Richard Bauer, … manages the apartment building. K.L. … owns and operates a dog grooming and boarding business. As part of that business, she began construction on a dog care facility in a lot adjacent to the Bauer Apartments.

During the course of the construction of the dog care facility, Bauer contacted K.L. to express concerns that the outdoor “dog run” may become a nuisance issue and could be in violation of Sloan’s zoning ordinance. Bauer also contacted the Sloan city council about his concerns. When his concerns were not addressed to his satisfaction, Bauer filed suit against the city, alleging the city failed to enforce its zoning ordinances.

During the pendency of Bauer’s lawsuit against the city, K.L. took to airing her disgruntlement with the situation on Facebook, posting comments about Bauer, Bauer Apartments, and the dispute regarding construction of the dog care facility. K.L.’s adult daughter joined the Facebook fray, as did the defendant, Bradley Brinkman. It was Brinkman’s commentary that resulted in this lawsuit, as Brinkman posted the following comment:

It is because of shit like this that I need to run for mayor! Mr. Bauer, you sir are a PIECE OF SHIT!!! Let’s not sugar coat things here people, [K.L.] runs a respectable business in this town! You sir are nothing more than a Slum Lord! Period. I would love for you to walk across the street to the east of your ooh so precious property and discuss this with me!

Bauer filed suit against Brinkman alleging Brinkman’s statement that Bauer is a “slum lord” constituted libel….

Drawing the line between opinion and fact … is important because opinions are “absolutely protected under the first amendment.” Because drawing this line involves important first amendment issues, its determination is one for the court rather than the fact finder…. To make this determination, courts look to four factors: (1) whether the “statement ‘has a precise core of meaning for which a consensus of understanding exists or, conversely, whether the statement is indefinite and ambiguous'”; (2) the degree to which the statement is “objectively capable of proof or disproof”; (3) “the context in which the” statement occurs; and (4) “the broader social context into which” the statement fits.

We begin our analysis of the first two factors by noting that the term “slum lord” is not defined in Brinkman’s Facebook post. Nevertheless, a legal dictionary defines the term to mean, “A real-property owner who rents substandard housing units in a crowded, economically depressed area and allows the units to fall into further disrepair, esp. while charging unfairly high rents,” or simply “the owner of any run-down rental property.” …

While slum lord is capable of a definite meaning, its appearance in Brinkman’s comment is vague enough that a reader of the post would be left to use his or her own definition, which would result in the term meaning different things to different people. This indefiniteness as to the meaning of the term cuts against a conclusion that it was a statement of fact. Further, the above definitions are not particularly capable of objective proof or disproof ….

Additionally, Brinkman’s comment that Bauer is a “slum lord” followed on the heels of calling Bauer a “piece of shit.” While understandably offensive and insulting, this type of name calling is generally not actionable….

“The common law has always differentiated sharply between genuinely defamatory communications as opposed to obscenities, vulgarities, insults, epithets, name-calling, and other verbal abuse. It has thus been held that a libel does not occur simply because the subject of the publication finds the publication annoying, offensive, or embarrassing. …

“No matter how mean or vulgar, such language is not defamatory. It is not defamatory, for example, to call someone a ‘bastard,’ or a ‘son of a bitch,’ or an ‘idiot.’ No matter how obnoxious, insulting, or tasteless such name-calling, it is regarded as a part of life for which the law of defamation affords no remedy.”

Given the nebulous nature of the term “slum lord,” standing alone as it was in this case, the first two factors cut in favor of the statement being that of opinion rather than fact.

Having determined the first two factors cut in favor of finding Brinkman’s words to constitute nonactionable opinion rather than fact, we turn to the last two factors. These factors cause us to consider the fact that Brinkman’s statement was made on Facebook and the context within which it was made on that social media platform in determining whether the statement was opinion protected by the first amendment….

The statements were made by adding to a chain of comments started between private individuals expressing disgruntlement over Bauer’s dispute with the city regarding K.L.’s dog care facility. The message chain was not related to a news account or any other form of communication that purported to be fact based. Instead, it was clearly an exchange of opinions about the topic at hand. Brinkman’s comments did not purport to interject facts to the discussion, but, instead, merely added to the string of expressed opinions. The comments focused on the dispute over K.L.’s dog care facility and not on Bauer’s rental property.

We conclude that anyone viewing Brinkman’s comments would have viewed them as nothing more than expressions of Brinkman’s opinions, rather than a declaration of facts. Viewed in this context, the last two factors of the analysis join the first two factors in cutting in favor of a finding that Brinkman’s statements were opinions rather than facts.

To be clear, we are not saying that statements made on Facebook or other social media forums cannot be defamatory as a categorical rule. Rather, we are acknowledging that, when alleged defamatory statements are made on a social media platform, the forum in which the statements were made is a contextual factor to consider in determining whether the statements are an expression of opinion or fact. In this case, we find the context of the postings on Facebook contribute to the conclusion Brinkman’s statements were those of opinion and are thus protected by the first amendment….

Quite right, I think.

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It’s $25,000 Challenge Grant Time in Reason’s Annual Webathon!

Reason50

Here in the opening half of Reason‘s annual Webathon, in which we ask you, dear readers and listeners and viewers, to consider making a tax-deductible donation to the nonprofit foundation that makes all of our work possible (and does other great stuff besides), I thought it might be fun to take a trip down memory lane and appreciate together how far you’ve helped us come since our first modest little cup-rattle back in 2008. But first….

WON’T YOU PRETTY PLEASE DONATE TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW??

How far have we come in 12 years? Well, see that orange box in the upper right of this page, with its 355 donors and $61,000 in donations after 48 hours? That’s already more Webathon loot than we raised in each of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. But wait, there’s more!

In that first year, our bell-ringing produced a grand total of $13,000. On this very day in 2020, by contrast, we are announcing a special challenge grant of nearly double that!

That’s right, there is a married couple dear to our hearts, with a last name bearing a familial resemblance to my own, who today are announcing a $25,000 challenge grant. That means: If you donate $10, we magically get $20. If you stroke us a check for $24,999, then (beep-boop, beep-boop)…damn near 50 large! Lookit all that math!

Please double the impact of your money by donating to Reason today!

This money does something far more important even than nurturing Peter Suderman’s cocktail habit, Katherine Mangu-Ward’s pot brownie recipes, or granting C.J. Ciaramella extra license to write about Dungeons & Dragons. This allows …(inhales deeply)…Reason to stay Reason.

Here’s what I mean by that. On a purely functional level, your generosity—1,300 of you gave us $370,000 during our Webathon last year!—allows us to stay in business, which is no small thing in the world of opinion magazines. We no longer count among our publishing brethren The Weekly Standard (shuttered in 2018), Governing (2019), or, uh, the International Socialist Review (2019). Take that, commies!

But just as importantly, having a diversity and depth of funding sources make us almost unnaturally resilient and consistent over time. No head-snapping editorial zig-zags for us.

Consider this: Just 16 days ago on The Reason Roundtable podcast, the magazine’s editors in chief of the past two decades spent some quality time talking about the newest book from a Reason editor in chief from the decade before that. That’s 30 years of a magazine’s leadership happily exchanging ideas based on the same broad frames of reference.

Now let’s compare that continuity to the tumult at, say, The New Republic, the progressive warhorse that when we began doing these Webathons was still run by lefty-tweaking hawk Marty Peretz and edited by Franklin Foer. Peretz replaced Foer with Richard Just in 2010, then sold the magazine in 2012 to babyfaced Facebook billionaire Chris Hughes, who re-hired Foer, then so quickly purged the mag of its contrarian past that Peretz soon lamented in The Wall Street Journal that “I don’t recognize the magazine I used to own.” By the end of 2014 there were so many editorial changes and publishing pivots and staff revolts that I headlined one Webathon post that year, “Donate to Reason! Because Jesus Christ, We Sure Aren’t The New Republic!” The Hughes era ended in 2016, and TNR is now on its seventh editor change over a span that Reason has had all of two.

I do not for one moment mean to pick on our journalistic frenemies, but rather to use their turmoil as an object lesson in the advantages of our funding model, and its dependence especially on you. As I wrote back when TNR staffers were still hi-fiving about all the new money, and media columnists were gushing over the exciting fate of the onetime “in-flight magazine of Air Force One,” I made this point about publications in our category:

Political magazines, which as a rule do not cover expenses through subscriptions and advertising, have two basic ownership models: Get an ideologically and/or culturally sympatico rich person (or “vanity mogul,” in Jack Shafer’s memorable phrasing) to subsidize the losses, or just organize as a nonprofit (Reason chose the latter road decades ago).

There are plusses and minuses to both–as Shafer points out, “Hughes should be able to sustain the magazine’s annual losses—which Anne Peretz, the ex-wife of former owner Martin Peretz put at $3 million a year—for a couple of hundred years after his death”—but one aspect I certainly enjoy about the Reason way is that it is literally impossible for a single person (let alone a single person with deep political connections to the sitting U.S. president) to impose his or her will on the editorial decisions of a normally configured nonprofit publication. The basic editorial thrust is therefore much more resilient and consistent in the long term, much less subject to the temporal whims and temper tantrums of a lone deep-pocketed journalistic novice.

Your donations, and the sheer number of you donating, amounts to force protection against this editorial enterprise suddenly rendering itself unrecognizable based on the direction of the wind—of anybody‘s wind.

Do you derive value and perhaps even occasional pleasure at having a consistent (if consistently weird) libertarian voice working in the fields of journalism and commentary, while constantly expanding its reach and impact? Do you enjoy doubling the impact of your dollar? If so, please consider DONATING TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW!

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3lwzCvj
via IFTTT

Mauldin: This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago

Mauldin: This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago

Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/03/2020 – 08:45

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

In 2010, the scientific journal Nature published a collection of opinions looking ahead 10 years, i.e., where we are right now.

Nature then published a short response from zoologist Peter Turchin in its February 2010 issue.

Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political instability (P. Turchin and S. A. Nefedov Secular Cycles Princeton Univ. Press; 2009). In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. They all experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability.

Very long “secular cycles” interact with shorter-term processes. In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020.

We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40- to 60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe.

In addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth in the number of people in their 20s, like the youth bulge that accompanied the turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s.

All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.

Again, that was from 2010. Right on schedule, we are experiencing the “instability spike” Turchin says tends to come along every 50 years.

Why 50 years? It relates to the human lifespan.

Consider who was “in charge” during the period around 1970. Baby Boomers were all 25 or younger at the time. Managing the chaos fell on older generations, who remembered it well and spent the rest of their lives trying to prevent more of it.

But after 50 years or so, they are mostly gone. We who remain must learn the lesson again.

I’ve talked before about Neil Howe’s “Fourth Turning” idea, and George Friedman’s geopolitical cycles, both of which are peaking in this decade.

Interestingly, Friedman also sees a different geopolitical 50-year cycle playing out in the mid to late ’20s. This overlaps with his 80-year geopolitical cycle for the first time. The mid- to late ’20s should see the climax of Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning.

Now we see Peter Turchin postulating a similar time frame for different reasons. None of them, to my knowledge, expected the pandemic we are now experiencing. What is its effect?

Well, we know the pandemic triggered a recession that may, before it’s over, rival the Great Depression. For millions of Americans, it is not just something they read about. They feel it.

You’ve probably seen this famous 1931 photo of Al Capone’s Chicago soup kitchen.

Source: Wikimedia

The 2020 equivalent is happening in my former hometown Dallas. This photo from November brought a tear to my eye.

Source: CBSDFW via Twitter

We do see progress was made between these images. The people obviously have cars and fuel. Those were elite luxuries in 1931. Some of these people may be educated and intelligent, but they’re not elites.

Actual elites don’t have to wait in line for food. They call Whole Foods or DoorDash and have it delivered.

The problem, borrowing Turchin’s framework, is that some thought they were elites. Even if they didn’t exactly think of themselves as elite, they did enjoy the benefits of good jobs. At least, until recently.

This year took away that illusion, and they’re naturally disappointed. They may join the “counter-elites” and seek more power.

This is where we are. The hard times we’ve long anticipated are here. That 1931 soup kitchen photo was just the beginning of a long, dark period. It got a lot worse.

Pay attention when you see multiple smart people reaching similar conclusions for different reasons. We are now at Turchin calls the final stage, when elites try to pacify the masses with bread and circuses. Doing so racks up the debt and suppresses economic growth.

Debt is accumulating faster than I expected, so The Great Reset may happen sooner than I expected. This pandemic and recession may push us there faster because they are making the debt grow faster.

Whenever it comes, we should welcome it. The alternatives may be even worse.

I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mCQrpN Tyler Durden

Despite Initial Claims Drop, Over 20 Million Americans Remain On Unemployment Benefits

Despite Initial Claims Drop, Over 20 Million Americans Remain On Unemployment Benefits

Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/03/2020 – 08:34

Despite reports that the the Government Accountability Office has found that the Labor Department has “consistently” provided inaccurate information on the state of the labor market, we continue to watch weekly jobless claims for signs of life (or near-death) in America’s “recovering” economy.

After two weeks of disappointing rises, initial claims dropped this week to 712k (775k exp) from an upwardly revised 787k the prior week…

Source: Bloomberg

Pandemic Emergency Claims (PUA) continue to soar as Americans fall off the traditional continuing claims rolls (which plunged from 6.089mm to 5.52mm)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, overall, there are still over 20 million Americans filing weekly for some kind of unemployment benefit…

Source: Bloomberg

Perfect time for more widespread, un-scalpel-like, lockdowns of the economy!?

As we noted previously, remember that the PUA and an unemployment insurance extension are set to expire at the end of December (the blue and green sections above). Talks about extending relief continue to be slow going and arduous. About 9.1 million people collected benefits under the PUA during the first week of November.

“Without an accurate accounting of the number of individuals who are relying on [unemployment insurance] and PUA benefits in as close to real-time as possible, policy makers may be challenged to respond to the crisis at hand,” the GAO concluded.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2VyPpzs Tyler Durden

Pen-and-Paper Arithmetic Is Useful When You’re Selling Textiles

FabricOfCivilization

In 1479, a few months shy of his eleventh birthday, Niccolò Machiavelli left the school where he’d learned to read and write and went to study with a teacher named Piero Maria. The future author of The Prince spent the next twenty-two months mastering Hindu-Arabic numerals, arithmetical techniques, and a dizzying assortment of currency and measurement conversions. Mostly he did word problems like these:

If 8 braccia of cloth are worth 11 florins, what are 97 braccia worth?

20 braccia of cloth are worth 3 lire and 42 pounds of pepper are worth 5 lire. How much pepper is equal to 50 braccia of cloth?

One type of problem reflected the era’s shortage of currency. Goods that would sell for one price in coins cost a premium if the buyer paid with other goods. (These problems assume familiarity with trading conventions and therefore present ambiguities to the modern reader.)

Two men want to barter wool for cloth, that is, one has wool and the other has cloth. A canna of cloth is worth 5 lire and in barter it is offered at 6 lire. A hundredweight of wool is worth 32 lire. For what should it be offered in barter?

Two men want to barter wool and cloth. A canna of cloth is worth 6 lire and in barter it is valued at 8 lire. The hundredweight of wool is worth 25 lire and in barter it is offered at such a price that the man with the cloth finds he has earned 10 percent. At what price was the hundredweight of wool offered in barter?

Others were brain teasers dressed up in ostensibly realistic detail.

A merchant was across the sea with his companion and wanted to journey by sea. He came to the port in order to depart and found a ship on which he placed a load of 20 sacks of wool and the other brought a load of 24 sacks. The ship began its voyage and put to sea.

The master of the ship then said: “You must pay me the freight charge for this wool.” And the merchants said: “We don’t have any money, but take a sack of wool from each of us and sell it and pay yourself and give us back the surplus.” The master sold the sacks and paid himself and returned to the merchant who had 20 sacks 8 lire and to the merchant who had 24 sacks 6 lire. Tell me how much each sack sold for and how much freightage was charged to each of the two merchants?

Along with their famed humanist arts and letters, the mercantile cities of early modern Italy fostered a new form of education: schools known as botteghe d’abaco. The phrase literally means “abacus workshops,” but the instruction had nothing to do with counting beads or reckoning boards. To the contrary, a maestro d’abaco, also known as an abacist or abbachista, taught students to calculate with a pen and paper instead of moving counters on a board.

The schools took their misleading name from the Liber Abbaci, or Book of Calculation, published in 1202 by the great mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, better known as Fibonacci. Brought up in North Africa by his father, who represented Pisan merchants in the customs house at Bugia (now Béjaïa, Algeria), the young Leonardo learned how to calculate using the nine Hindu digits and the Arabic zero. He was hooked.

After honing his mathematical skill as he traveled throughout the Mediterranean, Fibonacci eventually returned to Pisa. There he published the book that enthusiastically introduced the number system we use today.

Fibonacci’s novel methods of pen-and-paper reckoning were ideal for Italian textile merchants, who wrote lots of letters and needed permanent account records. Beginning in Florence in the early fourteenth century, specialized teachers began teaching the new system and producing handbooks in the vernacular. Consistent sellers, the books served simultaneously as children’s textbooks, merchants’ reference tools, and, with their brain-teasing puzzles, recreational materials.

From the abacists’ classrooms, future merchants and artisans typically graduated to apprenticeships and work. But a grounding in commercial math was also common for those like Machiavelli, who were destined for higher education and a career of statesmanship and letters. In a society based on trade, cultural literacy included calculation.

As they drilled generations of children on how to convert hundredweights of wool into braccia of cloth or to allocate the profits from a business venture to its unequal investors, the abacists invented the multiplication and division techniques we still use today. They made small but important advances in algebra, a subject universities scorned as too mercantile, and devised solutions to common practical problems. On the side, they did consulting, mostly for construction projects. They were the first Europeans to make a living entirely from math.

In his seminal 1976 study of nearly 200 abacus manuscripts and books, historian of mathematics Warren Van Egmond emphasizes their practicality—a significant departure from the classical view of mathematics, inherited from the Greeks, as the study of abstract logic and ideal forms. The abacus books treat math as useful.

“When they study arith­metic,” he writes, “it is to learn how to figure prices, compute interest, and calculate profits; when they study geometry it is to learn how to measure buildings and calculate areas and distances; when they study astronomy it is to learn how to make a calendar or determine holidays.” Most of the price problems, he observes, concern textiles.

Compared to scholastic geometry, the abacus manuscripts, with their problems about trading cloth for pepper, are indeed down to earth. But they don’t scorn abstraction. Rather, they wed abstract expression to the physical world. The transition from physical counters to pen-and-ink numerals is in fact a movement toward abstraction. Symbols on a page represent bags of silver or bolts of cloth and the relationships between them.

Students learn to ask the question, How do I express this practical problem in numbers and unknowns? How do I better identify the world’s patterns—the flow of money in and out of a business, the relative values of cloth, fiber, and dyes, the advantages and disadvantages of barter over cash—by turning them into math? Mathematics, the abacists taught their pupils, can model the real world. It does not exist in a separate realm. It is useful knowledge.

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Start Of OPEC+ Meeting Delayed As Cartel Debates Output Cut Extension

Start Of OPEC+ Meeting Delayed As Cartel Debates Output Cut Extension

Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/03/2020 – 08:27

A critical OPEC+ summit was set to begin at 8am ET when it was unexpectedly delayed by 1 hour to 3pm Vienna time.

According to overnight reports from the WSJ, OPEC and its allies were closing in on an agreement to modestly boost their collective oil output by as much as 500,000 barrels a day starting January, although according to more recent reports from Reuters, the increase won’t happen until February.

  • OPEC+ DISCUSSING ROLLOVER OF CURRENT OIL CUTS INTO JAN FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL OIL OUTPUT INCREASE OF ABOUT 500,000 BPD FROM FEB – FOUR OPEC+ AND INDUSTRY SOURCES

Bloomberg reported that there could be a one-month delay before the tapering starts, while according to EnergyIntel one OPEC+ option considered is Jan: 7.7-0.5=7.2 cut; Feb: 6.7 cut; March: 6.2 cut; April: 5.7 cut, bringing the average cut for 3 months to 6.7 instead of 7.7.

Separately, Citi’s Ed Morse wrote on Dec 2 that while the market consensus was for OPEC+ producers to extend the current output curbs by 3-6 months, higher oil prices have increased the chance of the group agreeing on a shorter time-frame. With prices in the mid-to-high $40s, the alliance will likely shorten the extension to just 1 to 2 months and continue to assess output quotas on a monthly basis; he adds that any sort of compromise on a restoration of 20-25% of the original 1.9m b/d planned increase for January wouldn’t be bullish for a market that was anticipating no supply increases for 3-6 months. Any more bearish outcome out of the OPEC+ meetings could risk a deeper correction amplified by thin market liquidity during the holiday season, but a full collapse of talks looks very unlikely.

JPMorgan also chimed in, writing that global oil demand remains “too fragile” between now and when a vaccine will likely be widely available for the market to absorb the planned output increase from OPEC+.

“Plans to start tapering at the start of the year may trigger a bit of a sell-off as worries over the market tipping into oversupply are currently mostly focused on the winter months,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. Prices had built in some premium on expectations that OPEC+ wouldn’t start adding more barrels to the market next month, she added.

If the current OPEC+ agreement isn’t modified, the group will start returning an additional 1.9 million barrels a day of crude to the market from Jan. 1, which would crash the demand-starved market.

Despite the heightened drama, OPEC+ has no choice but to reach a deal on extending supply cuts as Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America, said in Bloomberg TV interview.

Blanch said he sees an extension of current supply cuts by “possibly two months, maybe even three months” as the group “doesn’t want to see prices “a lot higher.” as OPEC+ “fears shale coming back too much to let that happen right now. There’s too much market share at stake at the moment.” Finally, he noted that tension between UAE and Saudi Arabia is “something that can be ironed out” and they’ll find a way to resolve their differences as they have a lot of shared interests regionally.

And so with trader waiting for the OPEC meeting to begin, Brent was trading just barely in the red, down 18 cents to $48.08, following yesterday’s sharp gains as the Brent curve remains in backwardataion, which indicates tight supply. The much-watched spread between the nearest two December contracts is also at its strongest since February.

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