“We Will Be Watching You”: Dems Put Media On Notice To Avoid ‘Racist Tropes’ Such As ‘Angry Black Women’

“We Will Be Watching You”: Dems Put Media On Notice To Avoid ‘Racist Tropes’ Such As ‘Angry Black Women’

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 09:40

With Joe Biden having picked Kamala Harris as his running mate – the first Black woman on a presidential ticket, a group of DNC heavyweights  including Valerie Jarrett and Michelle Obama’s former Chief of Staff, Tina Tchen, have penned a warning to media outlets against perpetuating ‘racist, sexist tropes.’

For example, “Reporting on and using pictures of women’s, particularly black women, show of anger at injustice or any other kind of passion in communication perpetuates racist tropes that suggest unfairly that women are too emotional or irrational in their leadership or worse “hate America.”

What?

In short, criticizing Kamala Harris is now racist and/or sexist, and the authors of the aforementioned warning even invoke the death of George Floyd to ensure newsrooms know how serious they are.

“Our country — and your newsrooms — have learned a lot since the [death of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody] and the subsequent protests for racial equality that his death spurred … We know from public reporting that many of your newsrooms had internal conversations about your coverage, your diversity and your editorial judgments,” reads the letter in part.

“A woman VP candidate, and possibly a Black or Brown woman candidate, requires the same kind of internal consideration about systemic inequality as you undertook earlier this year,” it continues. “We are here to help you with this challenge … We intend to collectively and individually monitor coverage and we will call out those we believe take our country backwards with sexist and/or racist coverage. As we enter another historic moment, we will be watching you.“

In short, media outlets can’t point out that:

– Kamala Harris’s career was launched when she slept with former California lawmaker Willie Brown, who was married at the time.

– Her father, respected Jamaican academic Donald Harris, wrote about their  family’s ownership of slaves.

– The senior Harris also slammed Kamala after she tried to leverage her Jamaican roots to try and sound cool on “The Breakfast Club”

– When she was California AG, Harris tried to keep inmates locked up to maintain a supply of cheap (mostly minority) labor.

Careful media, they’re watching…

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PHKA3Q Tyler Durden

Rabobank: “If Gundlach Is Right November Is Going To Provide Quite The Shock, Again”

Rabobank: “If Gundlach Is Right November Is Going To Provide Quite The Shock, Again”

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 09:20

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Use Your Illusion (II)

Yesterday ended with the track-list to Guns N’ Roses ‘Use Your Illusion I’, which seemed to tell its own story: “Live and Let Die”; “Don’t Cry”; “You Ain’t the First”; “November Rain”; “The Garden”; “Dead Horse”.

Just as unnecessary, self-indulgent, and relatively unpopular as it was three decades ago, let’s immediately follow that up with the track-list to ‘Use Your Illusion II’, which also seems to have the power of prophecy when looking at the latest news on US politics and geopolitics: “Civil War”; “14 Years”; “Yesterdays”; “Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door”; “Get in the Ring”; “Shotgun Blues”; “Breakdown”, “Pretty Tied Up (The Perils of Rock n’ Roll Decadence)”; “Locomotive (Complicity)”; “So Fine”; “Estranged”; “You Could Be Mine”, “Don’t Cry”; “My World”

The major US headline, of course, is that Joe Biden has, very much as expected, picked Kamala Harris as his Vice Presidential candidate. A great deal can be written about this choice from any number of angles and is being, including at her Wikipedia page, which The Intercept reports is being rapidly rewritten by opponents and proponents. What matters to markets, of course, is what the appointment means for Biden’s odds of winning, and of any future policy stance.

Objectively, it does not seem clear Harris will provide many new votes in the way VPs are sometimes seen as doing, but often fail to. She represents California, a state already firmly in the bag for the Democrats; she is a positive symbol in terms of diversity/identity politics for those who vote that way, the evidence for which is mixed; and she is not seen as representing a different wing of the party (recall Sanders reaped around 40% of Democratic delegates before conceding). Meanwhile, in terms of policy, VPs have no influence – full stop. Yet does a Biden/Harris ticket strike voters (and markets) as ‘the most progressive presidency since FDR’? In 1936, Roosevelt proclaimed the forces of “business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, [and] war profiteering” were united against his candidacy; that “They are unanimous in their hate for me — and I welcome their hatred.” On social media in 2020, key progressive voices are saying “The question now shouldn’t be: How much do you love them? It should be: How much can you make them fear you?” Which logically suggests not very much. Overall, no major market moves are expected from the VP news.

On a related note, US bond guru Gundlach says Trump will win again in 2020 – and he called 2016 right. His key argument is that a large number of Trump voters are deliberately saying they don’t know who they will vote for or that they will vote Biden, which makes polls unreliable. November is going to provide quite the shock for the polling profession once again, if so.

Meanwhile, markets did wobble yesterday for entirely different reasons, with one of the key ones being that 10-year US Treasuries are now back up to 0.65%, which makes holding everything else that much less attractive. Including gold, which was supposed to be showing us that inflation was everywhere ahead (not just in assets) and that the USD was over. Yes, being below USD1,900 and not above USD2,000 is just a small detail in a far bigger picture, but it does underline that nothing is rock solid day-to-day – even metal.

Whether that US yield uptick is justified or not is questionable, however, when we see that New Zealand has just seen Covid-19 break out again after 102 days with no local transmission. The thing just won’t stay down, it seems. Hence needed even before Auckland was locked down again, the RBNZ stepped up to announce more QE, in this case to NZD100bn from NZD60bn, and extended through to June 2022. It also said that negative rates are in “active preparation”. Considering that we are entering into the kind of Japanese monetary policy space I recall warning Kiwis about back in late 2017 alongside Biblical quotations and Monty Python animation (to some consternation, as I recall), NZD has behaved quite well: it is only down around a cent to 0.6543. Let’s see where it sits when rates are negative though.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that this morning may have seen the PBOC buying government bonds, which generated a frisson of excitement. It would be a rare occurrence if so. However, it’s not as if the Chinese state does not play a vast role in the economy and markets, is it? The consolidated fiscal deficit was already in double digits even before the virus struck according to the IMF: take a guess as to where it is now – and don’t think the PBOC isn’t ultimately backstopping this, because it is.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2DKPo65 Tyler Durden

Left, Right, and Center Respond to Joe Biden’s Veep Pick, Kamala Harris

harris-may2019-polspphotos567363

Sen. Kamala Harris’s (D–Calif.) selection as Joe Biden’s running mate is reverberating across the political landscape, provoking enthusiastic reactions from left, right, and center, and even knocking the coronavirus pandemic off the front page.

Many Democrats are cheering the selection while lots of Republicans waste no time trying to paint Harris as a dangerous radical. Actual radicals, meanwhile, are either making their peace with Harris or re-upping their criticism of her as a phony progressive.

Former President Barack Obama praised the decision, describing Harris in a statement as someone who was “more than prepared for the job” of vice president, and a person “whose focus goes beyond self-interest to consider the lives and prospects of others.”

Several of Harris’ former primary candidates weighed in with messages of support.

President Donald Trump meanwhile offered some backhanded praise of Harris as his “number one draft pick” in a news conference last night while attacking her as an extremist.

“She’s very big into raising taxes. She wants to slash funds for our military at a level that no one can even believe, she’s against fracking, she’s against petroleum products,” said Trump. “How do you do that and go into Pennsylvania or Ohio or Oklahoma or the great state of Texas?”

The Trump campaign also released a 30-second attack ad criticizing Harris’s embrace of Medicare for All and tax increases. The ad also points out that Harris had attacked Biden during the primaries for supporting “racist policies.” The California senator had criticized Biden during the primary debates for opposing busing and for praising segregationist senators earlier in his career.

In a sign of coverage to come, CNN has already deemed Trump’s more personal attacks on Harris—who he called “nasty,” the “meanest,” “most horrible,” and “disrespectful” of Biden—as playing “into racist and sexist stereotypes of black women.”

Several days prior, the progressive group We Have Her Back circulated a letter to major news organizations demanding they “actively work to be anti-racist and anti-sexist” in their coverage of a female, minority vice presidential candidate.

Conservatives have spared no criticism of Harris following her selection, attacking her for her authoritarian impulses, abuse of power, embrace of cancel culture, and anti-Catholic bigotry.

On the left-wing fringes of the Democratic Party, the reaction to Harris was a bit more mixed. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I–Vt.) former press secretary Briahna Joy Gray accused Biden and the Democratic Party of showing “contempt for the base” by choosing a “top cop” like Harris.

Waleed Shahid, a spokesperson for the progressive political action committee, Justice Democrats, was more sanguine, saying that Harris was a non-ideological figure whose drift to the left showed the growing power of the Democrats’ progressive faction.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii), who delivered a devastating debate stage takedown of Harris’ criminal justice record last year, has so far issued no comment on Harris’ selection. What more could she say?

FREE MARKETS

Today, Portland City Council is expected to pass a major update of its zoning code that would ease restrictions on density, permit multifamily housing citywide, and allow homeowners to add up to two accessory dwelling units (sometimes known as granny flats or in-law suites) on their property.

The Seattle-headquartered think tank Sightline Institute has called the changes “the most pro-housing reform to low-density zones in US history.”

There’s a lot to like in Portland’s reforms, including the legalization of four-unit homes on residential lots citywide, and the elimination of parking requirements in most places. However, they also come with a number of regulations that will be unpalatable to libertarians.

The maximum allowed size of houses has been shrunk, for instance, in an attempt to prevent the construction of “McMansions.” Developers will be allowed to build larger buildings with more units, but only if they include rent-restricted units. Similar inclusionary zoning policies have been shown to increase overall housing costs.

The Portland metro area’s urban growth boundary, which limits development on the urban fringe, also remains untouched.

QUICK HITS

  • Retail chains are getting the hell out of Manhattan, reports The New York Times.
  • Rep. Ilhan Omar (D–Minn.) won her primary yesterday, meaning the “squad” member will likely be returning to Congress.
  • The U.K.’s economy shrank more this year than any other rich country, reports the Wall Street Journal.
  • QAnon supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene has won the Republican primary for a U.S. House seat in Georgia. Given the solid red nature of the district, Greene is likely to sweep the general election as well.
  • Hong Kong media mogul and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai has been released from jail. He was arrested under the semi-autonomous territory’s new China-imposed national security law earlier this week.
  • Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best announced she is resigning in response to cuts made by the Seattle City Council to the police department’s budget.

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Kanye West Unveils His Presidential Platform

sipaphotosten927541

Kanye West’s presidential campaign, which has so far seen only one actual campaign event, continues to crawl forward, with the help of professionals generally associated with the Republican Party. Efforts to get West on the ballot in some states, including Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Illinois, are already being challenged as fraudulent.

West seemed to endorse the idea that he’s in it to hurt the Democrats to the only reporter that he seems inclined to talk to, Randall Lane of Forbes. “I’m not denying it; I just told you,” West texted back when Lane pressed him on the idea that West’s campaign was going to serve as a spoiler against Biden. West currently polls nationally at around 2 percent.

Kanye 2020 has now released something like a platform of policies and stances, each and every one of which is buttressed by a quote from the Bible.

If West really is hoping to win and if Republicans are indeed deliberately helping him based on the belief that West will siphon more votes away from Democratic candidate Joe Biden than from Republican President Donald Trump, does that platform seem intelligently crafted for the purpose of taking votes away from Biden?

The platform’s main concerns are restoring prayer in school; reducing (through means unspecified) household and student debt; rearranging public education to provide “the widest possible range of educational and vocational paths to job opportunities and career success”; avoiding “foreign quagmires that do not advance our national interest, and which last for decades”; reforming criminal justice and policing to avoid undue harm to the poor and minorities; ending federal sentencing guidelines that result in “ridiculous sentences for the most minor offenses”; supporting clean air and water and renewable energy; calling for “fair trade, not one-sided deals that hurt American workers”; and “support[ing] faith-based groups to provide vital local services.”

The platform says nothing about immigration, a hot-button issue that divides a typical would-be Trump voter from a typical would-be Biden voter.

Some of West’s policy ideas are things many Democratic voters undoubtedly want from Biden. But will the platform actually help West undermine the Biden campaign? The impact on with West himself or any potential West voter of Biden picking Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) as his running mate remains to be seen.

Those looking for a more religious candidate might already be OK with Biden, even if he’s not calling for prayer in school or buttressing his positions with Bible quotes. For example, 70 percent of Democrats in a February Pew Research poll said they saw Biden as somewhat or very religious.

On the other hand, a certainty of belief in God, something one would think would lead one to lean Kanye, is far more prominent among Republicans than Democrats, 73 to 55 percent. Indeed, religious belief is “very important” to 61 percent of Republicans, while just 47 percent of Democrats said the same. Meanwhile, only 29 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning Americans go to religious services weekly.

It may be that black Democrats are less strongly devoted to the Democratic Party’s progressive-leaning rising wing and perhaps more open to voting West. For example, in 2019 about 65 percent of black Democrats in a Pew Research poll described themselves as conservative or moderate. In that same poll, “black Democrats also are more likely than other Democrats to say morality is linked to a belief in God. A 55% majority of black Democrats say ‘it is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral.'”

The same Pew poll points to another area where the beliefs of black Democrats might make them inclined to like West’s platform: “Black Democrats are more likely than other Democrats to say racism is a very big problem for the country: 79% of black Democrats say this, compared with 70% of Hispanic Democrats and 52% of white Democrats. Black Democrats also see job opportunities for all Americans as a bigger problem for the country than white or Hispanic Democrats.”

And unlike West, who has been an enthusiastic Trump fan in the past, a whopping 96 percent of black Democrats disapprove of Trump as president, with 79 percent doing so “strongly.”

According to one academic paper, voting patterns indicate that partisan identification was more important to more black voters than strict agreement on moral or policy issues. That could be bad news for Kanye 2020.

However, a 2019 poll from Third Way and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which tried to figure out which issues were most important to black voters, indicates that West’s platform might have some real appeal. Of course, that assumes that West actually does anything to make people aware of his positions, such as actively campaigning or talking to the media.

According to that same 2019 poll, 66 percent of polled black Americans see improved water and air quality as something that would benefit them “a great deal.” The same was said by 66 percent of black Americans about “creating more higher paying jobs,” by 57 percent about “reforming the criminal justice system,” and by 55 percent about “providing more access to credit.” West’s platform speaks to those issues.

There is no polling that I’ve found which would suggest that West’s insistence on a less bellicose foreign policy is of particular appeal to black voters. In fact, West’s rhetoric on the issue so closely matches that of Trump that a voter would have little reason to prefer West to Trump in this area.

And it surely has not helped West’s candidacy that his own wife basically called it an expression of West’s mental illness after his one campaign event so far. But as West later insisted to Forbes, though he is “walking” for president, he is “walking…to win.”

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Left, Right, and Center Respond to Joe Biden’s Veep Pick, Kamala Harris

harris-may2019-polspphotos567363

Sen. Kamala Harris’s (D–Calif.) selection as Joe Biden’s running mate is reverberating across the political landscape, provoking enthusiastic reactions from left, right, and center, and even knocking the coronavirus pandemic off the front page.

Many Democrats are cheering the selection while lots of Republicans waste no time trying to paint Harris as a dangerous radical. Actual radicals, meanwhile, are either making their peace with Harris or re-upping their criticism of her as a phony progressive.

Former President Barack Obama praised the decision, describing Harris in a statement as someone who was “more than prepared for the job” of vice president, and a person “whose focus goes beyond self-interest to consider the lives and prospects of others.”

Several of Harris’ former primary candidates weighed in with messages of support.

President Donald Trump meanwhile offered some backhanded praise of Harris as his “number one draft pick” in a news conference last night while attacking her as an extremist.

“She’s very big into raising taxes. She wants to slash funds for our military at a level that no one can even believe, she’s against fracking, she’s against petroleum products,” said Trump. “How do you do that and go into Pennsylvania or Ohio or Oklahoma or the great state of Texas?”

The Trump campaign also released a 30-second attack ad criticizing Harris’s embrace of Medicare for All and tax increases. The ad also points out that Harris had attacked Biden during the primaries for supporting “racist policies.” The California senator had criticized Biden during the primary debates for opposing busing and for praising segregationist senators earlier in his career.

In a sign of coverage to come, CNN has already deemed Trump’s more personal attacks on Harris—who he called “nasty,” the “meanest,” “most horrible,” and “disrespectful” of Biden—as playing “into racist and sexist stereotypes of black women.”

Several days prior, the progressive group We Have Her Back circulated a letter to major news organizations demanding they “actively work to be anti-racist and anti-sexist” in their coverage of a female, minority vice presidential candidate.

Conservatives have spared no criticism of Harris following her selection, attacking her for her authoritarian impulses, abuse of power, embrace of cancel culture, and anti-Catholic bigotry.

On the left-wing fringes of the Democratic Party, the reaction to Harris was a bit more mixed. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I–Vt.) former press secretary Briahna Joy Gray accused Biden and the Democratic Party of showing “contempt for the base” by choosing a “top cop” like Harris.

Waleed Shahid, a spokesperson for the progressive political action committee, Justice Democrats, was more sanguine, saying that Harris was a non-ideological figure whose drift to the left showed the growing power of the Democrats’ progressive faction.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii), who delivered a devastating debate stage takedown of Harris’ criminal justice record last year, has so far issued no comment on Harris’ selection. What more could she say?

FREE MARKETS

Today, Portland City Council is expected to pass a major update of its zoning code that would ease restrictions on density, permit multifamily housing citywide, and allow homeowners to add up to two accessory dwelling units (sometimes known as granny flats or in-law suites) on their property.

The Seattle-headquartered think tank Sightline Institute has called the changes “the most pro-housing reform to low-density zones in US history.”

There’s a lot to like in Portland’s reforms, including the legalization of four-unit homes on residential lots citywide, and the elimination of parking requirements in most places. However, they also come with a number of regulations that will be unpalatable to libertarians.

The maximum allowed size of houses has been shrunk, for instance, in an attempt to prevent the construction of “McMansions.” Developers will be allowed to build larger buildings with more units, but only if they include rent-restricted units. Similar inclusionary zoning policies have been shown to increase overall housing costs.

The Portland metro area’s urban growth boundary, which limits development on the urban fringe, also remains untouched.

QUICK HITS

  • Retail chains are getting the hell out of Manhattan, reports The New York Times.
  • Rep. Ilhan Omar (D–Minn.) won her primary yesterday, meaning the “squad” member will likely be returning to Congress.
  • The U.K.’s economy shrank more this year than any other rich country, reports the Wall Street Journal.
  • QAnon supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene has won the Republican primary for a U.S. House seat in Georgia. Given the solid red nature of the district, Greene is likely to sweep the general election as well.
  • Hong Kong media mogul and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai has been released from jail. He was arrested under the semi-autonomous territory’s new China-imposed national security law earlier this week.
  • Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best announced she is resigning in response to cuts made by the Seattle City Council to the police department’s budget.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/33TveBl
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Kanye West Unveils His Presidential Platform

sipaphotosten927541

Kanye West’s presidential campaign, which has so far seen only one actual campaign event, continues to crawl forward, with the help of professionals generally associated with the Republican Party. Efforts to get West on the ballot in some states, including Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Illinois, are already being challenged as fraudulent.

West seemed to endorse the idea that he’s in it to hurt the Democrats to the only reporter that he seems inclined to talk to, Randall Lane of Forbes. “I’m not denying it; I just told you,” West texted back when Lane pressed him on the idea that West’s campaign was going to serve as a spoiler against Biden. West currently polls nationally at around 2 percent.

Kanye 2020 has now released something like a platform of policies and stances, each and every one of which is buttressed by a quote from the Bible.

If West really is hoping to win and if Republicans are indeed deliberately helping him based on the belief that West will siphon more votes away from Democratic candidate Joe Biden than from Republican President Donald Trump, does that platform seem intelligently crafted for the purpose of taking votes away from Biden?

The platform’s main concerns are restoring prayer in school; reducing (through means unspecified) household and student debt; rearranging public education to provide “the widest possible range of educational and vocational paths to job opportunities and career success”; avoiding “foreign quagmires that do not advance our national interest, and which last for decades”; reforming criminal justice and policing to avoid undue harm to the poor and minorities; ending federal sentencing guidelines that result in “ridiculous sentences for the most minor offenses”; supporting clean air and water and renewable energy; calling for “fair trade, not one-sided deals that hurt American workers”; and “support[ing] faith-based groups to provide vital local services.”

The platform says nothing about immigration, a hot-button issue that divides a typical would-be Trump voter from a typical would-be Biden voter.

Some of West’s policy ideas are things many Democratic voters undoubtedly want from Biden. But will the platform actually help West undermine the Biden campaign? The impact on with West himself or any potential West voter of Biden picking Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) as his running mate remains to be seen.

Those looking for a more religious candidate might already be OK with Biden, even if he’s not calling for prayer in school or buttressing his positions with Bible quotes. For example, 70 percent of Democrats in a February Pew Research poll said they saw Biden as somewhat or very religious.

On the other hand, a certainty of belief in God, something one would think would lead one to lean Kanye, is far more prominent among Republicans than Democrats, 73 to 55 percent. Indeed, religious belief is “very important” to 61 percent of Republicans, while just 47 percent of Democrats said the same. Meanwhile, only 29 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning Americans go to religious services weekly.

It may be that black Democrats are less strongly devoted to the Democratic Party’s progressive-leaning rising wing and perhaps more open to voting West. For example, in 2019 about 65 percent of black Democrats in a Pew Research poll described themselves as conservative or moderate. In that same poll, “black Democrats also are more likely than other Democrats to say morality is linked to a belief in God. A 55% majority of black Democrats say ‘it is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral.'”

The same Pew poll points to another area where the beliefs of black Democrats might make them inclined to like West’s platform: “Black Democrats are more likely than other Democrats to say racism is a very big problem for the country: 79% of black Democrats say this, compared with 70% of Hispanic Democrats and 52% of white Democrats. Black Democrats also see job opportunities for all Americans as a bigger problem for the country than white or Hispanic Democrats.”

And unlike West, who has been an enthusiastic Trump fan in the past, a whopping 96 percent of black Democrats disapprove of Trump as president, with 79 percent doing so “strongly.”

According to one academic paper, voting patterns indicate that partisan identification was more important to more black voters than strict agreement on moral or policy issues. That could be bad news for Kanye 2020.

However, a 2019 poll from Third Way and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which tried to figure out which issues were most important to black voters, indicates that West’s platform might have some real appeal. Of course, that assumes that West actually does anything to make people aware of his positions, such as actively campaigning or talking to the media.

According to that same 2019 poll, 66 percent of polled black Americans see improved water and air quality as something that would benefit them “a great deal.” The same was said by 66 percent of black Americans about “creating more higher paying jobs,” by 57 percent about “reforming the criminal justice system,” and by 55 percent about “providing more access to credit.” West’s platform speaks to those issues.

There is no polling that I’ve found which would suggest that West’s insistence on a less bellicose foreign policy is of particular appeal to black voters. In fact, West’s rhetoric on the issue so closely matches that of Trump that a voter would have little reason to prefer West to Trump in this area.

And it surely has not helped West’s candidacy that his own wife basically called it an expression of West’s mental illness after his one campaign event so far. But as West later insisted to Forbes, though he is “walking” for president, he is “walking…to win.”

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Tropical Depression 11 Could Become Earliest ‘J’ Storm On Record

Tropical Depression 11 Could Become Earliest ‘J’ Storm On Record

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 09:05

The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is 1,405 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 16 mph, is expected to become a tropical storm later today (Wednesday), reported the National Hurricane Center (NHC). 

If Tropical Depression Eleven strengthens and becomes a storm, it would be the earliest J named storm (Josephine) on record. 

There are no coastal watches or warnings for the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and or the Dominican Republic. The disturbance is expected to arrive near, at, or around Puetro Rico by the late weekend. 

Here are the current spaghetti models of Tropical Depression Eleven. CMC2, the Canadian model, forecasts the storm could ride up the East Coast. However, it’s still too early to determine the exact track. 

So for Wednesday, watch for the possible storm upgrade of Tropical Depression Eleven, which would be the earliest J named storm on record. Also, keep an eye on spaghetti models, in the late week, as a more accurate forecast track will be seen. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30PzKz9 Tyler Durden

Trump On Kamala: “She Was My Number One Pick”

Trump On Kamala: “She Was My Number One Pick”

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 08:45

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

President Trump says that he is happy Joe Biden has picked Kamala Harris as his running mate, saying that the Californian Senator was his “number one draft pick”.

In comments made during a press briefing, Trump said of Harris “She is a person that’s told many, many stories that weren’t true.”

“She’s very big into raising taxes. She wants to slash funds for our military at a level that nobody can even believe.” Trump continued.

He added “She is against fracking. She’s against petroleum products. I mean, how do you do that and go into Pennsylvania or Ohio or Oklahoma or the great state of Texas? She’s against fracking. Fracking’s a big deal.”

Trump continued his list of points on which to hammer Harris, noting “She’s in favor of socialized medicine, where you’re going to lose your doctors. You’re going to lose your plan. She wants to take your healthcare plans away from 180 million Americans. 180 million Americans that are very happy with their health insurance and she wants to take that away.”

“She was extraordinarily nasty to Kavanaugh, Judge Kavanaugh then, now Justice Kavanaugh. She was nasty to a level that was just a horrible thing…And I won’t forget that soon.” Trump added, referring to Kamala’s aggressive line of questioning during the justice’s heated 2018 confirmation hearings:

The President also noted that Harris’ own presidential campaign was a non-starter.

“She did very, very poorly in the primaries as you know. She was expected to do well. She ended up at right around 2% and spent a lot of money.” Trump said.

“She had a lot of things happening. And so I was a little surprised that he picked her,” Trump concluded, adding “I’ve been watching her for a long time. And I was a little surprised.”

The Trump campaign has already released an official video calling Harris a ‘phony’:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3kH4b2u Tyler Durden

US Consumer Prices Surge As Food & Medical Costs Jump

US Consumer Prices Surge As Food & Medical Costs Jump

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 08:36

Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected producer price data (led by a surge in energy costs and day-trading), analysts expected CPI to accelerate modestly YoY in July, but it acelerated significantly (rising 1.6% YoY vs +1.1% expected).

On a month over month basis, the headline CPI rose 0.6% (doubling the expected 0.3% rise)…

Source: Bloomberg

While PPI remains in deflation, Consumer Prices are rising…

Source: Bloomberg

As Food costs continue to surge…

The food at home index increased 4.6 percent over the last 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes rose over that span. The index for beef increased 14.2 percent over the last 12 months, contributing to an 8.4-percent increase in the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. The remaining groups rose more modestly, with increases ranging from 2.3 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 5.0 percent (nonalcoholic beverages). The index for food away from home rose 3.4 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals increased 4.5 percent and the index for full service meals rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months.

Additionally, medical care services also surged, but on the bright side (for some), rent/shelter inflation is slowing (rent inflation was 3.12% Y/Y, lowest since May 2014 and shelter inflation 2.33% Y/Y, lowest since Oct 2013)…

 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2XRavKE Tyler Durden

Beware The Era Of ‘Debtstolation’

Beware The Era Of ‘Debtstolation’

Tyler Durden

Wed, 08/12/2020 – 08:21

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The lone and level sands stretch far away…”

Apple is just $150 bln short of hitting the “magical” 2 trillion dollars market capitalisation.  It’s the clear Most Valuable Firm in today’s market, and just about equal in value to the entire value of the US Russell Index of small companies.  Everyone is very aware of the big tech stocks have led the remarkable stock market rally since March.  Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Google have massively outperformed.  Record high stock indices are due to these stocks. 

(Let me state right at the start of this morning’s comment that I own stock in a number of tech firms including Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.)

The market loves tech. Surging tech prices offer hope to the other parts of the market most impacted by the current crisis. Stock analysts are finding reasons to be positive – for instance, take this line from a US Investment Bank’s equity strategy note: “Markets anticipate better days ahead. Although the timing is uncertain, the stock market is expressing confidence the pandemic will end with a vaccine and better treatments in the interim.”

I’ve read a number of equity strategy notes suggesting Tech prices should now plateau, and it’s time to be buying the stocks that have underperformed, an implicit expectation that surging tech prices will lift all boats as the virus tide finally comes in. In fact, expectations of a vaccine are now so hyped (see the latest from Russia), I would go as far as to expect a successful vaccine could even prove to be this market’s “Sell the Fact Moment”!

Such a vaccine moment could well focus investors back onto the fundamentals, forcing them to understand why Tech is doing so well while the rest of the global economy is heading for crisis. There are good reasons why some stocks perform and others don’t – it’s a lesson we’re in danger of forgetting when Central Banks are promising to do whatever it takes to avoid a crash. There are a screed of news stories and analysts putting neutral recommendations on names like Apple assuming there must be limitations on further Tech price upside. 

I don’t know why there should be. Tech companies are winning the ongoing stock market popularity contest, and are likely to continue doing so. It’s very basic. Tech makes new stuff, (goods and services), for which there is surging incremental demand. They sell new stuff to new buyers. 

Compare and contrast to industries that become mature and demand flatlines. The car business is a great example: selling more cars is difficult – the whole industry is actually about persuading people to replace their cars. (Unless its Telsa, where you tell the buyer the car will soon be able to drive itself home.. when? Tomorrow. Always tomorrow.) 

Steel and oil companies are entirely dependent on demand for their products – which largely depends on global activity. In contrast, Tech creates its own demand – which is why earnings growth has been entirely driven by the Tech firms. Big Tech makes new stuff (goods and services) that people/companies are buying into because they don’t already have it. 

At the very start of the pandemic I used as Apple as an example of a stocks likely to weather the COVID crisis well. I expected the company would lose significant sales revenue (which didn’t actually happen), but that if it saw a fall in demand, but any lost sales would simply be purchases delayed. Revenue would not be permanently lost – if people couldn’t buy an iPhone in June, they could wait till August. 

The rest of the tech sector has the similar advantages – online offerings meant shuttered shops or working home spelt opportunity for them. Smart companies knew they couldn’t ignore social media advertising. Working for home put Zoom in front of us all, but the big winner has been Microsoft’s cloud platform. The bottom line is tech is outperforming because its outperforming. 

It might not last forever. I suspect Zoom will prove a short-live flash in the pan. It can’t really be worth 200x forward earnings or 40x this year’s sales when there are so many video conferencing alternatives from Teams etc.. And.. to be honest, its simpler and easier just to use the phone. Some tech companies will fall, and others will thrive.

But tech is fundamentally different from the rest – compare and contrast with the sectors most impacted by the virus. A holiday or flight is time sensitive and when cancelled the revenues are permanently lost. A new car purchase delayed still leaves a massive capital cost to be paid by the manufacturer and dealer – leading to increased debt. 

Large parts of global stock markets are massively underperforming… because they are underperforming. Its going to get worse as they deal with the costs of delayed deliveries, foregone cap-ex, supply chain breakdown, unpaid rents and crashing returns. Many companies are struggling with increased debt – it’s kept them afloat, but leaves them with a massive leverage burden, which will seriously impact their ability to grow, innovate and introduce new products. Even before the crisis began we were looking at 20% of US companies as effectively “zombies”. 

There is a very simple equation – higher debt = lower growth. 

Right across commercial enterprise companies have been forced to take on debt to weather the pandemic. This is happening at a time when a demand-shock – from massively increased unemployment – looks nailed on. The result will hamper growth for these companies and across economies, potentially for the next decade. It’s a recipe for stagnation at a time when the economic threat is deflation rather than inflation. We need a new word to describe it: Debtstolation?

Going back to Tech… 

I have something of a love-hate relationship with Apple. I love my bright shiny things – this morning’s missive is written on a Mac Pro, I am wearing an iWatch, and my iPhone is always in my pocket.  But when I read that Apple’s CEO is now worth over $1 trillion on the back of managing Steve Job’s firm for the past 9 years it reminds me… Apple hasn’t really innovated or produced anything new – except lots of profit and stock upside – since Jobs died.  

The reason Apple is so valuable today is that it makes stuff that people want to buy.  The point to worry is when it loses cachet – when the iPhone is just another smart phone, when iPads are playing catch up with whoever launches the first roll-up and go touch-screen, or perfects a smart-glasses computer. When Apple is no longer the Bright Shinny thing – but just another tarnished manufacturer of tech tat… well, you will have sold it years before that…  (clue to the future: I don’t wear Apple ear-buds, there are better alternatives out there…)

It’s worth bearing in mind the most valuable companies today are unlikely to be so in a few years time. Tech matures. The life cycle of most Tech Behemoths is fairly short. Eastman Kodak – in the news for all the wrong reasons today, was the third largest US firm just 50 years ago. At the top of the list was something called IBM…

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33QPwf1 Tyler Durden