Mattis: One More General For The “Self-Licking Ice Cream Cone”

Authored by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos via The American Conservative,

Big brass and government executives play both sides of the military revolving door, including “the only adult in the room.”

Before he became lionized as the “only adult in the room” capable of standing up to President Trump, General James Mattis was quite like any other brass scoping out a lucrative second career in the defense industry. And as with other military giants parlaying their four stars into a cushy boardroom chair or executive suite, he pushed and defended a sub-par product while on both sides of the revolving door. Unfortunately for everyone involved, that contract turned out to be an expensive fraud and a potential health hazard to the troops.

According to a recent report by the Project on Government Oversight, 25 generals, nine admirals, 43 lieutenant generals, and 23 vice admirals retired to become lobbyists, board members, executives, or consultants for the defense industry between 2008 and 2018. They are part of a much larger group of 380 high-ranking government officials and congressional staff who shifted into the industry in that time.

To get a sense of the demand, according to POGO, which had to compile all of this information through Freedom of Information requests, there were 625 instances in 2018 alone in which the top 20 defense contractors (think Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin) hired senior DoD officials for high-paying jobs—90 percent of which could be described as “influence peddling.”

Back to Mattis. In 2012, while he was head of Central Command, the Marine General pressed the Army to procure and deploy blood testing equipment from a Silicon Valley company called Theranos. He communicated that he was having success with this effort directly to Theranos’s chief executive officer. Even though an Army health unit tried to terminate the contract due to it’s not meeting requirements, according to POGO, Mattis kept the pressure up. Luckily, it was never used on the battlefield.

Maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise but upon retirement in 2013, Mattis asked a DoD counsel about the ethics guiding future employment with Theranos. They advised against it. So Mattis went to serve on its board instead for a $100,000 salary. Two years after Mattis quit to serve as Trump’s Pentagon chief in 2016, the two Theranos executives he worked with were indicted for “massive” fraud, perpetuating a “multi-million dollar scheme to defraud investors, doctors and patients,” and misrepresenting their product entirely. It was a fake.

But assuming this was Mattis’s only foray into the private sector would be naive. When he was tapped for defense secretary—just three years after he left the military—he was worth upwards of $10 million. In addition to his retirement pay, which was close to $15,000 a month at the time, he received $242,000 as a board member, plus as much as $1.2 million in stock options in General Dynamics, the Pentagon’s fourth largest contractor. He also disclosed payments from other corporate boards, speech honorariums—including $20,000 from defense heavyweight Northrop Grumman—and a whopping $410,000 from Stanford University’s public policy think tank the Hoover Institution for serving as a “distinguished visiting fellow.”

Never for a moment think that Mattis won’t land softly after he leaves Washington—if he leaves at all. Given his past record, he will likely follow a very long line, as illustrated by POGO’s explosive report, of DoD officials who have used their positions while inside the government to represent the biggest recipients of federal funding on the outside. They then join ex-congressional staffers and lawmakers on powerful committees who grease the skids on Capitol Hill. And then they go to work for the very companies they’ve helped, fleshing out a small army of executives, lobbyists, and board members with direct access to the power brokers with the purse strings back on the inside. 

Welcome to the Swamp

“[Mattis’s’ career course] is emblematic of how systemic the problem is,” said Mandy Smithberger, POGO’s lead on the report and the director of its Center for Defense Information.

“Private companies know how to protect their interests. We just wish there were more protections for taxpayers.”

When everything is engineered to get more business for the same select few, “when you have a Department of Defense who sees it as their job to promote arms sales…does this really serve the interest of national security?”

That is something to chew on. If a system is so motivated by personal gain (civil servants always mindful of campaign contributions and private sector job prospects) on one hand, and big business profits on the other, is there room for merit or innovation? One need only look at Lockheed’s F-35 joint strike fighter, the most expensive weapon system in history, which was relentlessly promoted over other programs by members of Congress and within the Pentagon despite years of test failures and cost overruns, to see what this gets you: planes that don’t fly, weapons that don’t work, and shortfalls in other parts of the budget that don’t matter to contractors like pilot training and maintenance of existing systems.

“It comes down to two questions,” Smithberger noted in an interview with TAC.

Are we approving weapons systems that are safe or not? And are we putting [servicemembers’] lives on the line” to benefit the interests of industry?

All of this is legal, she points out. Sure, there are rules—”cooling off” periods before government officials and members of Congress can lobby, consult, or work on contracts after they leave their federal positions, or when industry people come in through the other side to take positions in government. But Smithberger said they are “riddled with loopholes” and lack of enforcement. 

Case in point: current acting DoD Secretary Patrick Shanahan spent 31 years working for Boeing, which gets about $24 billion a year as the Pentagon’s second largest contractor. He was Boeing’s senior vice president in 2016 just before he was confirmed as Trump’s deputy secretary of defense in 2017. Last week he recused himself from all matters Boeing, but he wasn’t always so hands off. At one point, he “prodded” for the purchase of 12 $1.2 billion Boeing F-15X fighter planes, according to Bloomberg.

But the revolving door is so much more pervasive and insidious than POGO could possibly catalogue. So says Franklin “Chuck” Spinney, who worked as a civilian and military officer in the Pentagon for 31 years, beginning in 1968. He calls the military industrial complex a “quasi-isolated political economy” that is in many ways independent from the larger domestic economy. It has its own rules, norms, and culture, and unlike the real world, it is self-sustaining—not by healthy competition and efficiency, but by keeping the system on a permanent war footing, with money always pumping from Capitol Hill to the Pentagon to the private sector and then back again. Left out are basic laws of supply and demand, geopolitical realities, and the greater interest of society.

“That’s why we call it a self-licking ice cream cone,” Spinney explained to TAC.

[This report] is just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot more subtle stuff going on. When you are in weapons development like I was at the beginning of my career, you learn about this on day one, that having cozy relationships with contractors is openly encouraged. And then you get desensitized. I was fortunate because I worked for people who did not like it and I caught on quickly.”

While the culture has evolved, basic realities have persisted since the massive build-up of the military and weapons systems during the Cold War. The odds of young officers in the Pentagon making colonel or higher are slim. They typically retire out in their 40s. They know implicitly that their best chance for having a well-paid second career is in the only industry they know—defense. Most take this calculation seriously, moderating their decisions on program work and procurement and communicating with members of Congress as a matter of course. 

Let’s just say there’s a problem [with a program]. Are you going to come down hard on a contractor and try to hold his feet to the fire? Are you going to risk getting blackballed when you are out there looking for a job? Sometimes there is no word communicated, you just don’t want to be unacceptable to anyone,” said Spinney. It’s ingrained, from the rank of lieutenant colonel all the way up to general.

So the top five and their subsidiaries continue to get the vast majority of work, usually in no-bid contracts ($100 billion worth in 2016 alone), and with cost-plus structures that critics say encourage waste and never-ending timetables, like the $1.5 trillion F-35. “The whole system is wired to get money out the door,” said Spinney. “That is where the revolving door is most pernicious. It’s everywhere.”

The real danger is that under this pressure, parties work to keep bad contracts alive even if they have to cook the books. “Essentially from the standpoint of Pentagon contracting you are not going to have people writing reports saying this product is a piece of shit,” said Spinney. Worse, evaluations are designed to deflect criticism if not oversell success in order to keep the spigot open. The most infamous example of this was the rigged tests that kept the ill-fated “Star Wars” missile defense program going in the 1980s.

*  *  *

Everyone talks about generals like Mattis as though they’re warrior-gods. But for decades, many of them have turned out to be different creatures altogether – creatures of a semi-independent ecosystem that operates outside of the normal rules and benefits only a powerful minority subset: the military elite, defense contractors, and Congress. More recently, the defense-funded think tank world has become part of this ecology, providing the ideological grist for more spending and serving as a way-station for operators moving in and out of government and industry.

Call it the Swamp, the Borg, or even the Blob, but attempting to measure or quantify the revolving door in the military-industrial complex can feel like a fool’s errand. Groups like POGO have attempted to shine light on this dark planet for years. Unfortunately, there is little incentive in Capitol Hill or at the Pentagon to do the very least: pull the purse strings, close loopholes, encourage real competition, and end cost-plus practices.

“We generally need to see more (political) championing on this issue,” Smithberger said. Until then, all outside efforts “can’t result in any meaningful change.”

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China Activates “Ship Killer” Dong-Feng Missiles After US Navy Buzzes Disputed Islands

China has activated its “ship killer” Dong Feng ballistic missiles after a US navy ship traveled within 12 nautical miles of the Parcel Islands “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law,” according to a US Pacific Fleet Spokesman.  

In the 1990s, China laid claim to all of the Parcel Islands using a straight baseline around the entire archipelago, which it has labeled the Xisha Islands. The boundary is not recognized by international maritime law, while Vietnam and Taiwan have also laid claim to the islands. 

The USS McCampbell (DDG-85) passed by the disputed island on Monday, during which “The Chinese side immediately sent military vessel and aircraft,” according to China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Lu Kang, adding that they warned the ship to leave.” 

The deployment of the DF-26 missiles was reported by China’s state-controlled Global Times, which tweeted a montage of brave and loyal Chinese servicemen driving Xi’s Dongs to various locations in China set to the theme song of your average 1990s action movie. The missiles will not be positioned near the Taiwan Strait or the actual disputed islands – instead, the truck-mounted weapons have been sent to China’s more remote plateau and desert areas. 

“A mobile missile launch from deep in the country’s interior is more difficult to intercept,” said an expert quoted by the Global Times, who claimed that the DF-26 has a range of 4500km, more than enough to cover the entire South China Sea. 

“The DF-26 is China’s new generation of intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of targeting medium and large ships at sea,” warned the Times,” adding “It can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.” 

“During the initial phase of a ballistic missile launch, the missile is relatively slow and not difficult to detect, making it an easier target for enemy antimissile installations. After the missile enters a later stage, its speed is so high that chances for interception are significantly lower,” reads the report – which points out that it could hit a US naval base in Guam – located in the middle of the Pacific.

“The report is a good reminder that China is capable of safeguarding its territory,” reads the report. 

Another video of the DF-21D set to yet more action movie music shows a CGI simulation of the Dong-Feng unsheathing at high altitude before its warhead reenters the earth’s atmosphere and decimates a fleet of ships with what appears to be a nuclear blast. 

The US Navy’s territorial test came weeks after Australian media published details from a speech by one of China’s leading military commanders where he recommended sinking two US aircraft carriers to resolve the ongoing territorial dispute

During a wide-ranging speech on the state of Sino-US relations, Rear Admiral Lou Yuan told a Shenzhen audience that the current trade spat was ‘definitely not simply friction over economics and trade,” but a “prime strategic issue.” 

His speech, delivered on December 20 to the 2018 Military Industry List summit, declared that China’s new and highly capable anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles were more than capable of hitting US carriers, despite them being at the centre of a ‘bubble’ of defensive escorts.

“What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,” Admiral Lou declared.

He said the loss of one super carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and women. Sinking two would double that toll.

“We’ll see how frightened America is.” –News.com.au

Beijing has become more aggressive in recent years over the disputed islands – asserting sovereignty over the entirety of the South and East China seas despite an international arbitration court rejecting their claim, according to News.com.au. International law also prohibits Beijing to enforce territorial rights to the waters around artificial islands – which China has recently built on what was previously coral reefs. 

China has demanded that all nations respect a 12 nautical mile (22km) boundary around them. 

We will continue to take necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and security,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu. 

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When Guns Are Outlawed Only Outlaws Will Have Guns

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Guns are banned in the UK, but the black market is booming and criminals are loading up on firearms.

I have often wondered what is the real agenda of gun ban advocates. More people die from falls than from being shot. Deaths from accidents far exceed deaths from being shot.

The FBI reports that there were 1,247,321 violent crimes in the US in 2017.

Aggravated assault and robbery account for 91% of violent crimes. Rapes account for 7.7%. Murders accounted for only 1.4% of violent crime.

According to the FBI, there were 17,284 murders in 2017. 

Assailants using rifles killed 403 people, and 1,591 were killed by people using knives.  Handguns were used in 7,032 killings, many of which resulted from criminals killing one another over, for example, drug distribution.

The police were responsible for 987 shooting deaths, about one-fourth of which were mentally disturbed people.

There were 40,327 motor vehicle accident deaths in 2017. About 4,000 people died from drowning. There were 34,673 deaths from accidental falls. There were 58,335 accidental poisoning deaths. All unintentional deaths totalled 161,374.

It turns out that prescription drugs are the 4th leading cause of death, which puts it up there with cancer and heart attacks. Harvard University reports that properly prescribed medications hospitalize 1.9 million Americans annually, killing 128,000 people, which places prescribed medicines fourth place with strokes as a leading cause of death. Far more lives could be saved by focusing on careful drug testing rather than on gun control.

What then explains the fixation and constant propaganda about banning “assault rifles” when the total annual murders by assailants using all kinds of rifles is 403?

What explains the fixation on handguns that are the weapon of choice in only 41% of murders numbering only 7,032 deaths?

What is the point of disarming the population when private ownership of firearms prevents a large number of crimes. A study by criminologists Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz concluded that Americans use their guns annually to prevent more than 2 million crimes.

John Lott also found that gun ownership reduces crime.

Those who advocate banning gun ownership demur, claiming guns are used defensively 100,000 times a year. Why then do gun controllers want to take away guns that prevent crimes six times the number of homicides?

Those who want to ban guns use deceptive and dishonest terms such as “gun violence,” an illiterate use of language. Guns are inanimate objects like a hammer or a screwdriver. They are not capable of taking action such as committing violence. They have to be used or misused by people intent on committing violence. Therefore, there can be no such thing as “gun violence.” There can only be violence committed by people using guns or hammers or screwdrivers, or whatever.

Murders committed by assailants using handguns comprise a tiny 0.0056% of violent crimes. What explains the fixation on such a small problem?

Moreover, gun ban advocates, who so deplore the deaths by “gun violence” of Americans they have never met, are short on sympathy for the millions of victims of American gun violence in the Middle East and North Africa. They show no concern about the mounting conflicts orchestrated by Washington with Russia and China, conflicts that could destroy all life on earth in nuclear Armageddon.

Clearly, gun ban advocates are insincere about the few deaths of strangers that they so greatly deplore and use their insincerity to disguise an undeclared agenda.

Their agenda is the disarming of the American people, a people already disarmed of the protections of the US Constitution by the fake “war on terror.” The only remaining barrier to tyrannized Americans is the large percentage of the population that is armed and skilled in the use of “gun violence.”

Who funds the gun banners? Who is behind the long-standing and continuous assault on the Second Amendment of the US Constitution? What is the agenda behind the assault?

The First Amendment has already fallen. No white American any longer has free speech. It has become a firing offense. A lawsuit offense. A career-ending offense. The Jewish lobbies’ and the liberal/progressive/left and Democratic Party’s Identity Politics have murdered the First Amendment. Exercise your First Amendment rights and Antifa appears outside your home or at your restaurant table threatening you with violence.

The American media has been turned into a Propaganda Ministry for war in behalf of US hegemony over the world and in behalf of Washington’s and Israel’s control over the explanations fed to the American population. The New York Times, “the newspaper of record,” will leave a shameful, sordid record if anyone is left to read it.

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Deflation Looms As China Factory Price Gains Plunge Most Since 2011

Will “bad news” be “good news” for China’s markets? Or does this confirm what ‘censored’ economist Zhang Songzhou warned – that China’s real (as in not made-up) economic growth is dramatically lower than the official data?

To the consternation of Chinese censors, a presentation delivered by an economics professor at Renmin University in Beijing sparked a controversy last month when the professor claimed that a secret government research group had estimated China’s growth in gross domestic product could be as low as 1.67% in 2018, far below the official rate.

Unpossible, right?

Well given tonight’s almost unprecedented drop (and miss) in China’s inflation prints, maybe not.

China’s factory inflation slowed sharply in December, continuing the slowdown for a sixth straight month to the weakest level since late 2016 on softening demand and lower commodity prices.

China Producer Princes rose just 0.9% YoY – plunging from +2.7% YoY in November (and almost half the expected +1.6% YoY). This is the biggest MoM drop in PPI YoY since 2010…

As Bloomberg reports, the sharply decelerating pace brings back fears of a return of the deflation which ravaged corporate profits in 2012-2016. A return of slow or falling factory prices in China would squeeze corporate profitability and put pressure on global inflation, as export prices usually follow those at factory gate.

“Deflationary pressures are on the rise in China, driven by weakening domestic and export demand,” China International Capital Corp. economists Eva Yi and Liang Hong wrote in a note ahead of the data.

“Inflation tends to fall following an extended period of softening demand growth, which was in turn led by slower expansion of the broadly-defined credit cycle.”

Of course, in the new normal, this may be seen as ‘good’ news as it opens the door for PBOC to unleash some more serious monetary malarkey – because as we showed recently, stimulus efforts over the last six months have utterly failed…

Since June 2018, China has been loosening monetary and fiscal policies in an attempt to refloat the sinking red ponzi amid the shadow banking system’s deflation.

As the following chart from Goldman Sachs shows, it is not working as the Current Activity Indicator continues to slump…

It seems no matter what China throws at it, the economy (or the market) won’t behave as the text-books say it should.

“[Beijing] will soon have no choice but to launch massive stimulus,” says Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. “They do not want to give away their credibility because they said they wouldn’t do it, but there is no time to be cautious any more. Not having growth is ultimately the worst outcome of all.”

He’s right, although as we discussed last night, a further complication for Beijing arises from the fact that China’s economy is in the middle of a “tectonic transition” as its formerly massive current account surplus is about to turn negative…

Four

… which in turn is creating serious disruptions in capital flows that could portend weakness beyond China’s borders, assuming the trade war continues to impede the foreign investments that China’s increasingly consumption-based economy needs to expand.

However, for now, the reaction is to buy Yuan not dump it…

But finally, we return to Ambrose Evans Pritchard’s recent ominous conclusion as China faces serious economic consequences (from a credit crackdown on the shadow banking system as well as trade turmoil), as he warned that the biggest tail risk is a Sino-American showdown ending in global economic slump, bitter recrimination, and a cycle of escalation “into the kinetic space”. Eurasia says relations have already deteriorated beyond the point of no return. Nor is there any workable common ground for compromise. At stake is 21st Century technology dominance, not trade.

“Rising nationalist sentiment makes it unlikely that Beijing will ignore US provocations,” it added.

The balance of probabilities is that the world will muddle through 2019 without any of these landmines detonating. Yet the drift of events is clear. The Western liberal order we took for granted at the end of the Cold War is under existential threat.

“We’re setting ourselves up for trouble down the road. Big trouble,” it said.

And tonight’s China data pushes Xi further into a corner.

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Abu Dhabi Fund Puts New York’s Iconic Chrysler Building Up For Sale

Forget about buying the Brooklyn Bridge. An Abu Dhabi wealth fund is trying to offload another piece of iconic New York City real estate.

In what appears to be the latest consequence of the cooling in New York City’s commercial real-estate market over the past two years, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is hoping to offload its 90% stake in the iconic building – which was briefly the tallest building in the world after its completion in 1930, until the Empire State Building was completed in 1931.

Chrysler

But experts say the Council could struggle to recoup the $800 million it paid for its stake in the building back in 2008, just before the bottom fell out of the US economy, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The biggest problem facing the Chrysler building is the opening of dozens of sleek contemporary high-rises across the city that were designed with current tastes in mind. These buildings benefit from amenities like terraces, bike rooms, gyms and other features popular with modern workers.

Chrysler

Another deterrent is the immense upkeep costs associated with maintaining buildings from the pre-War era. All of these reasons make buying the building impractical for land lords hoping to make money off renting office space (the rising cost of leasing the land underneath the building is also a factor). Meaning that any buyer would likely be more interested in owning the building for the bragging rights. 

“There might be a billionaire who comes along and says, ‘I want to tell the world I own the Chrysler Building,'” said Adelaide Polsinelli, vice chair of the commercial investment sales and leasing division at real-estate services firm Compass.

But, she added, there are downsides to owning a prewar building. “When things break, it takes much longer to fix because there’s only one guy on the planet that has the tools to fix something from the 1920s and 1940s,” she said.

Still, with anxieties about possible volatility in stocks making some wealth investors wary, the Chrysler could benefit from the fact that New York City real-estate is considered a relatively “safe” asset.

Sale prices took a hit in 2017, when Chinese investors pulled back. But activity began to pick up again last year. Stock market turmoil could lead some investors to seek the security of bricks-and-mortar in big cities, said Jim Costello, a senior vice president with Real Capital Analytics.

“In Manhattan you know what you’re getting, and there’s a certain amount of safety,” he said.

And though the growing leasing and maintenance costs are certainly a deterrent, classic buildings like the Chrysler Building benefit from at least one distinct advantage: They don’t make buildings like they used to.

The Chrysler Building also faces rising costs associated with a ground lease. The land beneath the building is owned by the Cooper Union school. The building’s owners paid the school $7.75 million in rent during 2017, but that annual lease fee jumped to $32.5 million last year. It rises to $41 million in 2028, and there other associated fees along with the lease, according to Cooper Union’s financial documents.

Sill, some property investors say 1930s-era buildings hold a certain appeal, with their distinct architecture and sturdy floor plans. Some tech companies even welcome vintage properties. Google last year paid $2.4 billion for a former warehouse building, known as Chelsea Market, that dates back to the 19th century.

And while whoever buys the building may need to sink hundreds of millions of dollars in to upgrading the building, with oil prices finally inching higher (thanks to Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to more production cutbacks), maybe the fund can find another Middle Eastern buyer to take the Chrysler building off its hands (because, if the recent past is any indication, Chinese investors are buying less US real estate, not more).

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Oil Enters Bull Market As Short CTAs Are “Wiped Out”

After crude suffered a near record, 44% plunge in the fourth quarter, one which left commodity funds reeling and both OPEC and oil exporting nations in a panic, oil stormed back into bull market territory, as investors who’d abandoned crude just a month ago were lured back by an OPEC-led campaign to bring runaway supplies in check coupled with algos who turned from net short back to long.

WTI crude closed above $52 a barrel, staging a powerful, 23% recovery after hitting an 18-month low on Christmas Eve. Brent, likewise, finished the day up 22% since bottoming out.

After ending 2018 in a deep bear market, oil sharply reversed course on signs that oil exporters will follow through on last month’s pledge to slash production, with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih repeating that the plan was on track Wednesday even if DOE energy stocks showed a smaller drop in inventory thatn expected. The bigger catalyst in recent weeks, however, was hope that the U.S.-China trade war may be ending, boosting demand from the world’s largest oil importer adding to oil’s momentum, even if hopes that the just concluded trade talks would lead to any immediate resolution turned out to be false.

“‘Sentiment went from completely negative a couple of weeks ago to very positive right now,” said Matt Sallee, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $16 billion in energy assets for Kansas-based Tortoise. “Everyone’s just focused on the Saudis and they seem quite determined.”

There’s hope… and then there is reality which saw a whopping 10.6 million barrel surge in distillates and over 8 million barrels of gasoline added this week, numbers which were generally ignored by the market, which instead has been focusing on the recent plunge in the dollar, the result of a far more dovish Fed, which has helped support oil prices as the dollar decline made commodities priced in the U.S. currency more affordable.

“There is further upside to come in prices, as we see more evidence coming through that members of OPEC+ are complying with their new production cut,” said Warren Patterson, senior commodities strategist at ING Bank NV. “We see the market largely balanced over the first half of 2019.”

However, while all of these factors were well known and thus certainly already priced in, and hardly moving, the real catalyst for the recent surge higher in oil may have a different culprit: the same one that was blamed for oil’s precipitous crash – algos.

As Nomura’s quant strategy team writes overnight, it has identified that “net short positions on WTI futures accumulated by CTAs have been wiped out” and that “most of the bearish payers have also exited the crude oil futures market.” That may explain the sharp rebound as the marginal sellers are now turning long.

However, as Nomura also points out, for WTI to maintain levels over $50, “systematic trend-followers would need to keep stably accumulating fresh long positions” and that would require an extended move higher, something which after the recent 10 day surge, is unlikely.

Finally, according to Nomura, other major short-term players such as global macro HFs appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach by leaving their positions flat. The bank’s conclusion: “we doubt CTAs’ ‘solo-play’ to buy the futures can support WTI levels above $50 going forward.

If the Japanese bank is right, the fledgling oil bull market will be rather short-lived.

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Swiss National Bank Suffers $15 Billion Loss On 2018 Market Rout

In the third quarter of 2018, the hedge fund known as the Swiss National Bank did something it had not done in years: it sold stocks. As we showed in November, the overall value of the SNB’s US listed long holdings rose by over $2 billion to $90 billion, but all of this was due to the price appreciation as the central bank sold around $7bn of equities in Q3. This compares to purchases during 1H18 of around $6bn.

Alas, it did not sell enough, and as the next chart showed, some of the SNB’s top holdings would be the stocks that ended up getting hammered the most in the fourth quarter.

Why “alas”? Because the central bank which is one of the biggest investors in US stocks (in order to depress the value of the Swiss Franc) reported today that it had ran upa loss of 15 billion francs ($15.3 billion) in 2018 as a result of the global stock market rout hitting its equity holdings, resulting in the biggest annual loss since the 2015 franc revaluation and the third biggest loss on record.

As is well known, equities – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook are 5 of the SNB’s top 6 positions – make up 20% of the SNB’s massive holdings of foreign currencies. That was a problem in a quarter when U.S. and European stock benchmarks tumbled, while the franc gained against most of its G-10 peers, leading to a 16 billion-franc loss on that portfolio alone.

And, as Bloomberg notes, with a mountain of foreign exchange which at 729 billion francs exceeds the size of Switzerland economy, the central bank is at risk of big swings when markets get turbulent. The good news – for the hedge fund which can just print more money any time it needs it – is that any profit or loss has no bearing on monetary policy, which is determined more by the strength of the franc.

The currency’s rally against the euro at the end of last year damped price pressures, with data on Wednesday showing that core inflation rose just 0.3% in December. The franc’s strength left its mark on the SNB’s holdings of foreign currency, which dropped 2.7% in December, the biggest slide since 2012, according to Bloomberg.

Of course, that the Swiss central bank is the world’s largest risk-free hedge fund is only one part of its mystique: unusually among central banks, the SNB not only trades as a public company, but its shareholders receive a dividend (and face no downside when it suffers a loss). As Bloomberg notes, the biggest proportion of shares is held by public institutions, including cantonal governments and cantonal banks. There are also some 2,000 private investors, whose voting rights are very limited.

Ironically, in a time when everyone has been obssessing with the rise and fall of bitcoin, few have noted that the stock of the Swiss National Bank rose almost 700% from the start of 2016 through its April 4 all time high of CHF 8600.

In addition to its massive equity losses, the SNB also recorded a loss of 300 million francs on on its gold holdings and a net result of 2 billion on its Swiss franc position, which would in Europe’s bizarro NIRP world, also includes income from the negative interest it charges on sight deposit accounts as savers pay the central bank for the privilege of, well, saving.

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A Record Number Of Americans No Longer Want To Live In The U.S.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Anyone still calling America “the land of the free” is delusional at best. Things continue to go from bad to worse in the United States, and people are feeling it.  So much so, that a record number of Americans no longer want to live in the United States at all.

Once known as the land of opportunity, the U.S. is now more like the land of tax slave and debt slave.  Unfortunately, it isn’t the enslavement to debt or the government that is disturbing those the most.  It’s dissatisfaction with the current ruling class.

According to Gallup, the recent poll they conducted showed that the 16% of Americans overall who said in 2017 and again in 2018 that they would like to permanently move to another country if they could is higher than the average levels during either the George W. Bush (11%) or the Barack Obama administration (10%).

While Gallup’s World Poll does not ask people about their political leanings, most of the recent surge in Americans’ desire to migrate has come among groups that typically lean Democratic and that have disapproved of Trump’s job performance so far in his presidency: women, young Americans and people in lower-income groups. –Gallup

Which means these people don’t wish to be free, they simply want a different master somewhere else. And women appear to be angrier than men that their desired master isn’t controlling them, and their fellow slaves chose subservience to someone else. What’s truly horrifying about this particular poll is that Americans, for all intents and purposes, have simply accepted the fact that they are required to be enslaved by the political elites.

The 30% of Americans younger than 30 who would like to move also represents a new high — and it is also the group in which the gender gap is the largest. Forty percent of women younger than 30 said they would like to move, compared with 20% of men in this age group. These gender gaps narrow with age and eventually disappear after age 50. –Gallup

The desired destination for these slaves appears to be the Canadian plantation. With much higher taxation (theft), they are under the delusion that the political masters in that particular area will give them better living conditions. But Gallup makes it perfectly clear that the desire to move is much higher than any intention to actually do so. It is highly unlikely that Americans will be flowing into Canada. In fact, since Trump’s election, Canadian statistics show only a modest uptick in the number of Americans who have actually moved to Canada.

This is simply more evidence of the ever-widening political divide in the United States.  Discontent will not go down when a different master is voted on.  It’ll amplify once again and people will constantly wonder why they are unhappy until they wake up and realize they were born onto a tax plantation and immediately into debt slavery.

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“Complete Chaos” As Brazil’s Gangs Go Ballistic Over Bolsonaro Crackdown

Brazil has been swept with a rash of violence as gangs react to new President Jair Bolsonaro’s crackdown on crime – which includes military takeovers of Brazilian cities and shoot-to-kill orders carried out by teams of sharpshooters. 

Five hundreds national guard troops have been deployed to the north-eastern town of Fortaleza in the state of Ceará, after authorities have been overwhelmed by more than a week of violence which saw more than 160 attacks, reports the Guardian

Security forces say three rival drug gangs have come together to carry out more than 160 attacks in retaliation for a proposal to end the practice of separating gang factions inside Brazil’s prisons.

Buses, mail trucks and cars have been torched. Police stations, city government buildings and banks have been attacked with petrol bombs and explosives. On Sunday, criminals blew up a telephone exchange, leaving 12 cities without mobile service. Other explosions have damaged a freeway overpass and a bridge. –Guardian

There have been 148 arrests linked to the attacks, while at least 20 prisoners suspected of ordering the attacks haver been transferred from state to federal prisons – where Bolsonaro’s administration says it won’t back down on its plan to combat gang activity.  

Via The Guardian

Homicide rates in Fortaleza and other north-eastern cities have soared in recent years, as a territorial wars have broken out between Brazil’s most notorious gangs; the First Capital Command (known as the PCC in Portuguese) from São Paulo and the Red Command (Comando Vermelho) from Rio de Janeiro, which have locked horns with the Fortaleza-based Guardians of the State and the Northern Family from Amazonas state. 

The PCC and the Red Command are locked in a bitter fight to control Brazil’s drugs trade, and Fortaleza is seen as a strategic prize because it is the closest large port to Europe and Africa. –Guardian

We used to only see this kind of savagery on television in Rio de Janeiro. Things used to be mellow here,” said Carlos Robério, co-owner of a minibus co-op in Fortaleza who watched helplessly over a CCTV feed as a group of youths doused one of their kiosks before setting it on fire. 

Robério said that the breakdown in civility has made him want to arm himself. “It’s complete chaos here and I feel like I’m in the middle of the ocean without a life raft”

To that end, Bolsonaro last week said over Twitter that he would issue a decree to ease gun laws, making it much easier for adults over 25 to obtain firearms, as long as they have no criminal record. Bolsonaro says that allowing “good” people to own guns will discourage criminals, as well as reduce Brazil’s homicide rate after nearly 64,000 murders last year

Brazil’s security forces killed 5,000 people in 2017, an average of 14 a day

Meanwhile, authorities in Rio de Janeiro have trained up to 120 sharpshooters which will acccompany the city’s police force into nearby slums to eradicate violent gun-toting criminals. 

The marksmen will work in pairs; one shooter and one spotter who will monitor conditions and videotape the executions, according to Bloombergwith the two officers alternating roles. 

“The protocol will be to immediately neutralize, slaughter anyone who has a rifle,” said Witzel – a former Brazilian marine and federal judge, on December 12. “Whoever has a rifle isn’t worried about other people’s lives, they’re ready to eliminate anyone who crosses their path. This is a grave problem, not just in Rio de Janeiro, but in other states.” 

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If We Can No Longer Tell The Truth, We’ve Failed

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The Gulag Archipelago is not a distant memory; it lives on in every modern state, cloaked with modern-day technologies and the well-worn tools of suppression.

The last thing addicts want to hear is the truth: the only thing more terrifying than the truth is the possibility that they will lose access to whatever they’re addicted to: smack, Oxy, coke, alcohol, sex, porn, power, etc.

If we fail to tell addicts the truth, we fail them and ourselves. As long as co-dependents remain complicit in the addict’s destructive state, as long as those who know better keep silent because they don’t want to deal with the trauma, the addict is free to maintain the illusion that he/she is in control, that his/her secret is safe, etc., and manipulate those around them with lies and victimhood.

Not wanting to deal with the trauma of forcing those in denial to face up to reality is understandable: who wants to deal with the shock, denial, anger and depression that characterize facing up to a terrifying truth?

But we fail ourselves if we’re too weak to speak the truth and grind through the denial, anger and depression. If we opt for the easy way out, we’re just like the addict, who is also opting for the easy way out, i.e. finding refuge in the labryrinthine Kingdom of Lies.

The status quo is a Kingdom of Lies. “Raw data”, i.e. facts collected without regard to future interpretaion, are “processed” into the “right kind of data,” i.e. data that supports the status quo interpretation, which is that everything’s just fine thanks to the wise leadership of our self-serving elites.

The deeper you dig into the statistical foundation of GDP, the unemployment rate, trade deficits, etc., the more questions arise about the accuracy and agenda behind the headline numbers.

When insiders or hackers reveal the truth, the outrage of the status quo knows no bounds. Truth is intrinsically treasonous, as it undermines those gorging at the status quo’s trough of wealth and power.

The status quo exacts a high price from those who reveal the truth. Whistleblowers are hounded from their jobs, threatened by private-sector or government goons and thrown in prison on phony charges.

Complicity is always the easy option. Politicos know this, and their job is to grease the skids of complicity and silence with Savior State benefits and harshly punish whistleblowers.

The Gulag Archipelago is not a distant memory; it lives on in every modern state, cloaked with modern-day technologies and the well-worn tools of suppression. Communist states still prefer the absurd cliche of re-education camps, while so-called democracies use intimidation, limitations on free speech, de-platforming, shadow censorship and the ever-popular charges of treason and “fake-news” to suppress dissent and skeptical inquiry.

In the Kingdom of Lies, everything is spun, massaged, interpreted and fed to the corporate / state media for the benefit of those enjoying centralized wealth and power. But the spin is getting painfully obvious, and the interpretations blatantly self-serving.

For example, steep increases in taxes on diesel fuel are part of a wonderful plan to save the planet (no additional taxes on jet fuel for private jets, because those are our cronies’ toys).

If our governments and institutions can no longer tell us the truth because it undermines the ruling elites, they’ve failed the citizenry. And if we remain complicitly silent, then we’ve failed ourselves.

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