Harlan Institute-Ashbrook Virtual Supreme Court—Round of 4

Forget March Madness! Yesterday, the Harlan Institute and Ashbrook held the Round of 4 for the OT 2022 Virtual Supreme Court competition. The top four teams presented oral arguments in Students for Fair Admission v. UNC. We were honored to have three distinguished jurists preside: Judge Alice Batchelder (CA6), Judge Eric Murphy (CA6), and Judge Ken Lee (CA9). These students could have competed and prevailed in any law school moot court competition. They were remarkable.

Match #1

Team 11696 v. Team 11695

Match #2

Team 11762 v. Team 12823

The top two teams will face off against each other in person on April 24 in Washington, D.C. The championship round will be held at the Georgetown Supreme Court Institute.

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Where People Are Working Beyond 65

Where People Are Working Beyond 65

There is a huge disparity in labor force participation among over 65-year-olds across different OECD countries. 

Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that, according to data from the organization, Japan and Korea are the places where those aged 65 and over are making up the biggest share of the labor force – between 13 and 14 percent.

Infographic: Where People Are Working Beyond 65 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In contrast, Europe, where aging societies are also common, is seeing much fewer people work beyond 65.

The number ranged from 3.8 percent of the labor force in the United Kingdom and just 1.3 percent in Spain.

This is despite the fact that both countries – like most developed nations – are raising the retirement age, have a current minimum retirement age around 66 years and will reach 67 years before the end of the decade.

In the United States, the minimum retirement age is about the same, but still, the share of older workers is higher at 6.6 percent of the labor force – above that of Mexico.

This fact signals that older Americans can feel the need to work longer in a country that relies heavily on individual pension accounts and offers little in regards of public pension benefits to lower-wage earners.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 05:45

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Russia Could Seek Compensation Over Nord Stream Sabotage

Russia Could Seek Compensation Over Nord Stream Sabotage

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia could demand compensation for damages over the sabotaged Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, a senior Russian diplomat told Russian news agency RIA Novosti in an interview.

“We do not rule out raising the issue of compensation for damages as a result of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines,” Dmitry Birichevsky, Head of the Economic Cooperation Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying.    

The official did not specify with whom Russia would seek compensation.

Russia will continue to insist on an investigation into the blasts that involves Russian representatives, Birichevsky said, adding that the “Western countries are actively sabotaging work” on a Russia-proposed draft UN resolution calling for an independent investigation.  

The Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged in late September in still unexplained circumstances. Nord Stream 1 was carrying gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, while Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.  

Various investigations into the Nord Stream explosions continue amid accusations from Russia that some Western intelligence services are “hiding something.” 

Sweden’s refusal to share information about the sabotage of Nord Stream is “puzzling,” and withholding the results of the investigation means that “Swedish authorities are hiding something,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in January.

Last month, Russia called for an international investigation into the sabotage of Nord Stream after a U.S. investigative journalist wrote that the United States was behind the explosions of the gas pipelines.    

Russia does not expect that findings on the Nord Stream blast investigations will be made public, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week.  

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 05:00

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Welcoming Our New Chatbot Overlords


TOPICSTECNOLOGY

“Prediction: 2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption,” Greg Brockman, president and co-founder of OpenAI, tweeted on December 31. That’s a bold claim given what happened when Brockman’s artificial intelligence (A.I.) company allowed the public to preview ChatGPT and DALL-E 2. The former is its generative pre-trained transformer (GPT), a large language model optimized through deep learning to simulate human writing. The latter is its text-to-image A.I. art deep learning model that generates digital images from natural language descriptions.

ChatGPT can create everything from novel dad jokes to fairly well-written computer code. At my prompting, it wrote a serviceable sonnet describing Gilgamesh’s failed quest for immortality.

In just five days after ChatGPT’s public launch, 1 million people had signed up to give it assignments. In comparison, it took Instagram two and a half months to reach 1 million users, while Facebook needed 10 months, Twitter needed two years, and Netflix needed 41 months. ChatGPT’s servers are now regularly at capacity, and there is a waiting list to interact with the model.

ChatGPT was trained using around half a trillion words of text scraped from the internet and a selection of books. ChatGPT boasts 175 billion parameters, which are values in language models that change independently as they learn from training data to make more accurate predictions about the appropriate responses to conversations and queries.

High school and college teachers are worried that students will use ChatGPT to write essays, and journalists are concerned that it can produce news articles. Other firms see an opportunity to ramp up their productivity without adding personnel. Since November, the technology news site CNET has used ChatGPT to produce nearly 100 articles. The outlet says human editors check to ensure the articles are “accurate, credible, and helpful.” But outside journalists gleefully spotted several elementary robot reporting errors that CNET‘s human editors missed after publication. Corrections followed.

In January, New York City schools blocked access to ChatGPT on school-owned networks and devices. The January 12 issue of Nature reported that scientific reviewers were fooled about one-third of the time by fake biomedical article abstracts that ChatGPT generated. Somewhat ironically, the prestigious International Conference on Machine Learning banned authors from using A.I. tools like ChatGPT to write scientific papers.

A more sinister prospect is that large language models like ChatGPT will enable the automation of effective propaganda and the spread of disinformation. They are, after all, cheap, fast, and human-sounding.

As amazing and amusing as ChatGPT is, it is by no means flawless. “ChatGPT sometimes writes plausible-sounding but incorrect or nonsensical answers,” OpenAI acknowledges.

When prompted, ChatGPT makes text predictions to produce plausible responses, but the machine sometimes “hallucinates” factually wrong answers. In one case, a user asked ChatGPT what mammal lays the largest eggs. It responded that elephants did, adding that some elephant eggs reach nine inches in length and weigh up to five pounds.

Skeptics will argue that with respect to large language models like ChatGPT we are traversing the Gartner hype cycle. Developed by the Gartner information technology consultancy, it is a graphical representation of the life cycle stages—from innovation trigger through the peak of inflated expectations to the trough of disillusionment, rising again during the slope of enlightenment to reach the plateau of productivity—that a technology goes through from conception to maturity and widespread adoption. According to that view, the innovation trigger of ChatGPT has propelled us to the peak of inflated expectations, and the trough of disillusionment lies before us.

But large language models are not going away, and they will get better and better. Even before ChatGPT was released, A.I. watchers were speculating about the impending arrival of OpenAI’s GPT-4. Initial rumors suggested that GPT-4 would feature 100 trillion parameters, about 500 times more than ChatGPT. In an interview last year, however, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said GPT-4 won’t be much bigger than ChatGPT.

When the cybersecurity content marketing firm HackerContent asked ChatGPT to guess how many parameters GPT-4 will have, it gave a different answer. “It’s hard to make an accurate guess without more information about the design and architecture of ChatGPT-4,” ChatGPT said, “but it is likely to have several hundred billion parameters or even more, as machine learning models tend to increase in size and complexity with each iteration.” While that sounds reasonable, ChatGPT may once again be hallucinating a plausible answer.

“There will be scary moments as we move towards [artificial general intelligence] systems, and significant disruptions,” Altman tweeted in December, “but the upsides can be so amazing that it’s well worth overcoming the great challenges to get there.” I, for one, welcome our new chatbot overlords.

The post Welcoming Our New Chatbot Overlords appeared first on Reason.com.

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Brickbat: This Burns Me Up


A close-up shot of the flames from a gas stove.

California’s Bay Area Air Quality Management District has voted to phase out the sale of new natural gas furnaces and water heaters in the nine-county Bay Area. The new rules will ban the sale of residential natural gas water heaters after 2027 and large commercial natural gas water heaters after 2031. The rules would ban the sale of natural gas furnaces after 2029.  “The 1.8 million water heaters and furnaces in the Bay Area significantly impact our air quality, resulting in dozens of early deaths and a wide range of health impacts, particularly in communities of color,” said Philip Fine, the agency’s executive officer.

The post Brickbat: This Burns Me Up appeared first on Reason.com.

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Nordic Countries Create ‘Mini NATO’ Pact, Linking Air Forces

Nordic Countries Create ‘Mini NATO’ Pact, Linking Air Forces

A new, historically unprecedented defense pact has been signed by Scandinavian countries which is sure to evoke the anger of Moscow, at a moment NATO is on the cusp of admitting at least one of the countries (Finland) as a new member.

Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland have issued a joint declaration, stating their intent to combine their air defenses, to the point of their respective air forces joining into a single fighting unit.

What’s being called the countries’ Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) was signed at Ramstein Air Force Base in the middle of this month, but was only revealed in recent days.

The commander of the Danish Air Force, Gen. Jan Dam, in announcing the initiative said that “Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country.”

Given that in principle this means each of among the four countries will be involved in defending all in the event of an attack from a common enemy, DefenceNews.com likened the move to the establishment of a “mini NATO”.

While the JDI agreement didn’t mention Russia by name, the whole initiative is clearly part of the ongoing reaction to Russia’s February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

As for numbers of fighter aircraft which could be integrated into a broader Scandinavian force, Maj. Gen. Rolf Folland, the chief of the Norwegian Air Force (NAF), has floated a figure of nearly 250 advanced aircraft. He also suggested that a joint air operations center that could additionally feature United States and Canadian commanders providing their guidance and coordination.

“There is obvious interest in a regional initiative for a joint air command on NATO’s northern flank. We know the conditions in the High North well, and we have a lot to learn from each other. With a total of almost 250 modern combat aircraft, this will be a large combat force that must be coordinated,” Folland said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 04:15

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Humza Yousaf Wins SNP Leadership Contest To Become First Muslim Leader Of Scotland

Humza Yousaf Wins SNP Leadership Contest To Become First Muslim Leader Of Scotland

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Yousaf beat devout Christian Kate Forbes to become the next leader of the governing SNP party, despite being strongly disliked among the Scottish electorate…

Humza Yousaf has won the Scottish National Party leadership contest and will succeed the outgoing Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister of Scotland, despite being disliked by almost half of Scots, according to recent polling.

The Scottish health secretary will become the first Muslim to attain the role. He narrowly beat colleague and practicing Christian Kate Forbes by 52 to 48 percent once second preference votes were counted after outsider Ash Regan was eliminated in third place.

The 37-year-old is expected to be formally sworn in as Scotland’s sixth first minister at the Court of Session in Edinburgh on Wednesday, subject to a procedural parliamentary vote on Tuesday.

The leadership contest among Scotland’s largest parliamentary party exposed deep divisions among both the membership and its parliamentary cohort, and often turned rather unsavory with candidates attacking one another on controversial issues.

Kate Forbes, for example, who is a devout member of the evangelical Free Church of Scotland, was heavily criticized by parliamentary colleagues who supported Yousaf’s leadership campaign for her socially conservative views on issues such as gay marriage and abortion.

During the campaign, Yousaf had claimed to be a supporter of gay marriage, keeping in line with the SNP’s liberal hierarchy who backed his bid, despite actually abstaining from the final vote on the matter in the Scottish parliament back in 2014.

Critics of the politician suggested his media response on the matter, after Forbes had revealed her religious views would have prevented her from supporting the bill, showed he was happy to sell his soul for the top job.

Yousaf has made several controversial remarks during his time in the Scottish cabinet, particularly around race, including an infamous rant in the Scottish parliament where he claimed the country has too many white people occupying key roles.

The flagship policy of the Scottish National Party has been, and will continue to be under Yousaf’s leadership, Scottish independence, and the incoming leader has vowed to use “any means necessary” to break Scotland away from the United Kingdom, insisting that nothing should be “off the table.”

“We will be the generation to win independence for Scotland,” Yousaf said after the results were declared at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh on Monday, as he called the electoral success “the greatest honor and privilege” of his life.

The wider implications of Yousaf’s leadership victory among the Scottish electorate remain to be seen.

Recent polling conducted last week showed the new SNP leader to be the most popular of the leadership candidates among 2021 SNP voters; however, he is the most disliked among all voters.

Just 22 percent of the Scottish electorate hold a favorable view of Yousaf, while 42 percent actively dislike him.

None of the contenders are as popular as the outgoing Nicola Sturgeon, who announced her resignation last month, standing down after more than eight years on the job.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 03:30

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Germany Successfully Delivers 18 Leopard Tanks At Ukraine Border

Germany Successfully Delivers 18 Leopard Tanks At Ukraine Border

On Monday Der Spiegel reported that 18 Leopard 2 battle tanks have been received by the Ukrainian government, after the tanks were successfully delivered at the Ukrainian border.

Previously Defense Minister Boris Pistorius had promised that the the battle tanks would be in Ukrainian hands by the close of March. The German media report also noted that about 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles were also delivered.

German Army Leopard 2 A7V main battle tank, Getty Images

Reuters separately confirmed the deliveries, and additionally reported that “The German army trained the Ukrainian tank crews as well as the troops assigned to operate the Marder vehicles for several weeks on training grounds in Muenster and Bergen in northern Germany.”

“Beyond the German vehicles, three Leopard tanks donated by Portugal also reached Ukraine, according to the security source,” the report added.

European outlets have meanwhile commented on widespread social media assertions that Leopard tanks are prone to getting stuck in deep mud, such that exists in parts of Ukraine; however, the reports underscore there’s as yet no evidence for the claims.

Meanwhile, there could soon also be an influx of UK-supplied Challenger II tanks into Ukraine, after Ukrainian soldiers have concluded training

According to UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, the Ukrainian soldiers “return to their homeland better equipped, but to no less danger”.

“It is truly inspiring to witness the determination of Ukrainian soldiers having completed their training on British Challenger 2 tanks on British soil. We will continue to stand by them and do all we can to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Wallace said.

It’s unclear where the Western-supplied tanks will go first, but one likely possibility is to the front lines near the strategic city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region.

Ukrainian forces have for weeks been almost surrounded there, with the fighting still fierce and with prior Russian momentum reportedly stalled.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 02:45

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Bulgaria Refuses To Send Weapons To Ukraine, Joins Hungary & Austria’s Neutral Stance

Bulgaria Refuses To Send Weapons To Ukraine, Joins Hungary & Austria’s Neutral Stance

Via Remix News,

For the time being, Bulgaria will not send any military equipment to Ukraine…

After Austria and Hungary, Bulgaria has also joined the minority group of European Union countries that refuse to send weapons to Ukraine, news and opinion portal Mandiner reports.

Bulgaria has declared that it will not take part in the EU’s joint ammunition purchase program, nor will it supply fighter jets or tanks to Ukraine, Euronews reports. Bulgarian President Rumen Radev is under enormous pressure from opposition parties, but he has said he stands by his position.

“Bulgaria does not support and is not involved in the joint procurement of ammunition for Ukraine. However, we will support efforts to restore peace. As long as the interim government is in power, Bulgaria will not make its fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile systems, tanks and other equipment available to Ukraine,” said Radev.

At the end of January, Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky and his Austrian counterpart, Klaudia Tanner, said in Budapest that neither country will offer any kind of military assistance to Ukraine in order to “prevent further escalation.”

Although many of its Western allies accuse Hungary of siding with Russia in the war based on its firm stance of not sending weapons to Ukraine, last December Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that his government is simply on the side of the Hungarians.

“We are pro-Hungarian,” Orbán told daily Magyar Nemzet in an interview.

“We are on the side of the Hungarians in the Russian-Ukrainian war.”

Orbán argued that while it is important to his government that Russia poses no security threat, continued economic relations are essential for not only Hungary but also the entire European economy.

“The answer to the question of whether we are on the right or wrong side of history is that we are on the Hungarian side of history. We support and help Ukraine, it is in our interest to preserve a sovereign Ukraine, and it is in our interest that Russia does not pose a security threat to Europe, but it is not in our interest to give up all economic relations with Russia. We are looking at these issues through Hungarian glasses, not through anyone else’s,” Orbán said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/28/2023 – 02:00

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