Have Chinese State Banks Quietly Bought $180 Billion In Gold?

Have Chinese State Banks Quietly Bought $180 Billion In Gold?

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Live commentator and author

Three things we learned last week:

1. U.S. Treasury scrutinizes Chinese state banks for possible hidden currency intervention

While Janet Yellen’s Treasury Department refrained from labeling China as a currency manipulator in its semi-annual currency report, it again zeroed in on the role of Chinese state banks in the foreign-exchange market. It noted that China’s net foreign exchange settlement, which it considers a more comprehensive proxy for intervention because it includes the activities of China’s state-owned banks, surged to about $180 billion last year. But the PBOC’s foreign exchange assets, which historically track the settlement data, stayed flat.

The Treasury cautioned that it’s not clear what’s driving the unusual divergence between the two data sets, which used to provide roughly similar estimates of the direction and size of China’s currency intervention. While acknowledging that the difference could be due to commercial reasons, it’s also possible that these banks intervened on behalf of the PBOC to cover the central bank’s tracks, the Treasury said (ZH: or, it is the case that China has been stealthily accumulating some $180 billion in gold, as discussed last Friday in “Beijing Greenlights Purchases Of Billions In Bullion“).

“Overall, this development highlights the need for China to improve transparency regarding its foreign exchange intervention activities,” the Treasury Department wrote in a report released Friday. “Compared to other major economies, especially in Asia, China is increasingly an outlier with respect to its non-disclosure of foreign exchange market intervention.”

The Treasury raised similar concerns in its previous report. This won’t be the last time we hear about the issue.

2. Besieged Huarong got some reprieve

Dollar bonds of China Huarong Asset Management Co. rallied after financial regulators sought to ease investors’ concerns that the nation’s largest bad-debt manager may be heading for default. Huarong’s operations are normal and the company has ample liquidity, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said Friday. Chinese regulators asked banks not to withhold loans to help stabilize to Huarong’s cash flow, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

It’s clear that Beijing wants to keep Huarong from becoming China’s “Lehman moment”, even as it works to remove the perception of a blanket guarantee supporting state-owned companies.

The uncertainties remain, with Huarong’s perpetual bonds trading at about 73 cents on the dollar. But so far, the contagion has been limited as the domestic funding market remains calm.

3. Global growth is accelerating

China’s economy strengthened in the first quarter as consumer spending rose more than expected. In the U.S., economic data from retail sales to manufacturing surveys also surged. In Europe, vaccine rollouts are starting to speed up. Meanwhile, bond yields remain contained as traders have pared back their expectations for central bank hikes.
No wonder global stocks keep smashing records.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 19:30

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Former Temple Business School Dean Charged Federally For Manipulating School Ranking Data

Former Temple Business School Dean Charged Federally For Manipulating School Ranking Data

The former dean of Temple’s Fox School of Business is being charged with federal crimes after being ousted due to an investigation that found the school “manipulated data” to become the number one ranked MBA program in the country.

Former dean Moshe Porat was indicted on one count each of conspiracy and wire fraud, according to NBC Philadelphia. His lawyer “vigorously” denied the charges. 

Isaac Gottlieb, a statistics professor, and Marjorie O’Neill, who submitted data to magazines that rank college programs, were also named in the indictment, according to the report. 

Temple’s online MBA had been ranked top in the nation by U.S. News and World Report since 2015. The university stayed at the top of the list for 3 years after that and used its ranking to attract students and win donations. 

Porat allegedly hand picked a small group of employees to focus on the rankings, including stat professor Gottleib, who was also to reverse engineer the magazine’s ranking criteria. Porat appointed O’Neill as the sole liaison between the university and the magazine. 

The indictment “claims Fox manipulated data in its part-time MBA program, conflating its data with other programs to drive better rankings,” NBC reported.

U.S. News called out Temple’s online MBA data and stripped the school of its ranking. Temple was then forced to pay the U.S. Department of Education $700,000 and later settled a class action suit by offering $250,000 in scholarships.

Temple called Porat the “mastermind” of the fraud and asked him to resign. 

Attorney Carolyn P. Short wrote in court papers: “He conceived it, controlled it and kept it hidden, only to try later to cover it up. M. Moshe Porat bears personal responsibility for the Fox School’s intentional submission of false ranking data.”

Porat says he is being used as a scapegoat by Temple. His lawyer commented: “We are disappointed that, after cooperating with the government in its investigation, the United States Attorney’s Office decided to bring these charges, which Dr. Porat vigorously denies.”

“Dr. Porat dedicated forty years of his life to serving Temple University, first as a faculty member, and ultimately as Dean of the Fox Business School, and he did so with distinction. He looks forward to defending himself against these charges and to clearing his name,” the statement continued.

The kicker? Porat is still a tenured professor at the university and is making $316,000 per year. He hasn’t taught a class or published research since 2018. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 19:05

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Biden Blames Russia For The Exact Same “Interference” That US Corporate Media Is Guilty Of

Biden Blames Russia For The Exact Same “Interference” That US Corporate Media Is Guilty Of

Authored by Michael Tracey via substack,

Deliberately vague weasel-word terms like “election interference” and/or “influence” gained such purchase in the past four-to-five years for a simple reason: the deliberate vagueness allowed people in power — elected officials, pundits, Intelligence Community functionaries — to claim unspecified expertise on a supposedly emerging range of threats.

The threats were portrayed as particularly scary because of their alleged potential to Undermine Our Democracy. Consequently, these power-wielding people acquired a potent tool in their arsenal to accuse political enemies, whether foreign or domestic, of contributing to the proliferation of new and scary threats. The accusations were so deliberately vague that it was almost impossible to ever rebut them; sometimes even retweeting a meme was sufficient to be implicated in a foreign plot to destroy the very foundations of America. If an act so trivial as clicking one’s mouse on a social media post could be spun as abetting a foreign-backed “interference” or “influence” scheme, then that created an endless number of booby-traps for you to walk into.

So there was nothing new about the suite of anti-Russia charges promulgated Thursday by the US federal government, and parroted as usual with maximum credulity across the US media ecosystem. The charges were again predicated on the idea that Russian “interference” and/or “influence” is an extremely foreboding test for the survival of US Democracy. Taking bold action, the Treasury Department levied sanctions against a bunch more Russians for their claimed nefarious behavior in carrying out this interference/influence — a fulfillment of Joe Biden’s oft-stated campaign pledge that under his watch, Russia would finally “pay a price” for allegedly engaging in such activities. Donald Trump, it was thought, had been appallingly lax in his resolve to confront this threat; now, a new sheriff is in town.

Leaving aside the question of whether it’s prudent to assume that Janet Yellen is suddenly in possession of a foolproof methodology for attributing the provenance of “cyber operations” to specific foreign individuals and nation-states, it’s worth emphasizing what exactly is being alleged in the statement. The Treasury Department document reads: “Outlets operated by Russian Intelligence Services focus on divisive issues in the United States, denigrate US political candidates, and disseminate false and misleading information.” 

Noting that these same characteristics could be just as easily applied to US corporate media outlets is so blindingly self-evident as to almost be redundant. Were there not “outlets” during the 2020 election that were “focused” on “denigrating” Donald Trump? Or for that matter, Joe Biden? Do “divisive issues” not tend to be “focused on” by these same outlets as a basic precept of their core business model?

Controversy = clicks/views, which equals revenue.

Everyone knows this.

Yet when scary Russian outlets are said to employ this same logic in their own content-production enterprises, it magically becomes dangerous enough to justify all manner of punitive government and corporate action. Including but not limited to: censorship purges, tighter regulation of online speech, and, as Biden announced Thursday, sanctions and expulsion of diplomats. “Disseminating false and misleading information”? The entire US media just got caught “disseminating” a fake story about Russians putting bounties on the heads of US soldiers in Afghanistan. If you’re truly concerned about the dissemination of “false and misleading information” having deleterious effects on the health of US political culture, your first target should be CNN.

One of these supposedly-scary Russian “outlets” identified by the Treasury Department is the website SouthFront. (Gee, way to give them far more publicity than they could’ve possibly generated on their own. I’m sure more than .001% of Americans had heard of this obscure website before this week.) SouthFront is alleged to have committed the grave crime of having “sought to promote perceptions of voter fraud” after the 2020 election. I wrote extensively at the time about how the “perceptions of voter fraud” promoted by Trump and his media allies were mostly ill-founded, overblown, and illogical, and it’s true that consumers of fraud-obsessed media coverage often became more-than-a-little deranged. But that’s not the point: the point is whether or not promoting these theories constitutes some sort of terrifying “interference” that requires a forceful punitive response. In which case, the entirety of US right-wing media could be deemed as complicit, requiring vast state-backed retaliation (which may well be the long-term goal). Promoting ill-founded perceptions of political events might be bad, but it doesn’t generally rise to the level of Democracy-Threatening Existential Crisis unless you have some other motivation for raising it to that level.

In any event, Biden declared a “national emergency” with respect to this vague threat, on the ground that Russia had violated the “sacred” nature of US presidential elections by way of these website postings — even though the criteria invoked would apply to an infinitely wide array of US “outlets” that do exactly the same thing. Nonetheless, it’s henceforth an “emergency” to be on the lookout for irrelevant amateur websites like SouthFront. (Aside: Does anyone really view as “sacred” America’s multi-year presidential election rituals, into which billions of unregulated dollars are poured? Most Normies seem to be actively disdainful of presidential election melodrama and the attention/resources these rituals consume, rather than worshipful of their “sacredness.”)

In his remarks, Biden also introduced what is possibly an even vaguer term than “interference” or “influence” to describe this horrifyingly ever-present threat: Russia, he alleged, was guilty of “engagement in our elections.” And again, this “engagement” was said to consist of Russian Government-backed websites publishing posts about issues related to the 2020 US presidential election. 

So now we have an official “national emergency” declared vis-a-vis Russia’s conduct in orchestrating website posts, which has in turn been lumped into another “emergency” that apparently encompasses the ongoing escalation of conflict in Eastern Ukraine — a geopolitical domain Joe Biden has always taken a keen interest in. And this is largely being received not as an ominous development in US relations with a nuclear-armed power, but instead as a cheerful sign that the US has returned to asserting its rightful global dominance.

One neat trick of this whole rhetorical framework is that foreign “interference,” “influence,” and “engagement” will obviously never be completely curtailed, especially if these things consist of internet postings. Therefore, the framework authorizes a perpetual war-like footing against Russia (or whatever country is next in the line of sight) which is especially convenient if you are interested in waging a New Cold War to garner whatever benefits (political, military, economic) you calculate comes with doing so. The rationale for keeping this ridiculous tit-for-tat going in perpetuity is clear — but don’t expect much clarity on that score from the US media, which always takes delight in blaming scary foreign entities for partaking in the exact same Democracy Undermining behavior that it’s guilty of itself.

*  *  *

Subscribe to Michael’s Substack here.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 18:40

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Another “Explosive Eruption” Detected At St. Vincent Volcano In Eastern Caribbean

Another “Explosive Eruption” Detected At St. Vincent Volcano In Eastern Caribbean

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) reports a volcanic eruption has been detected at La Soufriere on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent Sunday afternoon. 

“At 4:49 pm on 18/04/21, there was another explosive eruption at LS. It’s been 52 hours since the last explosive event. There have now been at least 30 identifiable explosive events since the start of this eruptive phase. We continue to monitor and will provide an update in this evening’s advisory,” CDEMA stated. 

SkyAlert, a Mexico-based early earthquake warning company, posted a video of the alleged eruption. It said a “high eruptive column and possible pyroclastic surges,” adding that “thousands of people are still sheltered in lower-risk areas.”

The latest explosive eruption showed up on satellite imagery. 

St. Vincent’s National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) released a statement that “ash clouds are moving towards the south and west of the island. “Alert level remains RED,” NEMO warned. 

Last week, tens of thousands of residents were evacuated from the island’s northern region, where La Soufriere is located. 

At the moment, the island is completely covered with ash from multiple eruptions.

 Before And After 

Before And After 

Here is more devastation from the ashfall. 

The entire Caribbean island is on the verge of a humanitarian crisis. The ashfall from eruptions has contaminated the island’s water supply and decimated crops. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 18:19

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Court Order Protecting People Displaying Press Passes and Covering Protests in Minnesota

From Judge Wilhelmina M. Wright’s decision Friday in Goyette v. City of Minneapolis:

The individual Plaintiffs are journalists, photographers, and other members of the press who bring this lawsuit on behalf of themselves and other similarly situated individuals….

On May 25, 2020, George Floyd died as a result of an encounter with four officers of the Minneapolis Police Department, including then-officer Derek Chauvin. Plaintiffs commenced this lawsuit in June 2020 alleging that the State Defendants engaged in a pattern and practice of infringing the constitutional rights of members of the press who were documenting the protests that followed George Floyd’s death. In response to the protests, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz implemented nighttime curfews in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, with an exemption for members of the press. The State Defendants allegedly disregarded the press exemption and targeted the press. According to Plaintiffs, the State Defendants threatened, harassed, assaulted and arrested members of the press in multiple incidents over several days after the death of George Floyd. Goyette moved for a temporary restraining order to prevent the State Defendants from further violating the constitutional rights of the press. The Court denied the motion without prejudice because the protests had quelled and Goyette failed to demonstrate an imminent threat of harm.

Recently, additional protests have occurred in Minnesota in connection with the now-ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin. On April 11, 2021, a Brooklyn Center police officer shot and killed Daunte Wright, which led to additional ongoing protests. Plaintiffs allege that the State Defendants continue to violate the constitutional rights of the members of the press who are covering these protests.

Plaintiffs allege several examples, including the police firing rubber bullets at a videographer who was a safe distance from other protestors, orders directing the press to disperse despite the curfew orders expressly exempting the press, and various other acts impeding the press’s ability to observe and report about the protests and law enforcement’s interactions with protestors….

The court granted the following temporary restraining order, to last (at least initially) for 14 days:

[2.] Defendants Minnesota Department of Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington, in his individual and official capacity; Minnesota State Patrol Colonel Matthew Langer, in his individual and official capacity; and their agents, servants, employees and representatives (“State Defendants”), are hereby enjoined from:

  1. arresting, threatening to arrest, or using physical force—including through use of flash bang grenades, non-lethal projectiles, riot batons, or any other means—directed against any person whom they know or reasonably should know is a Journalist (as defined Paragraph 4 below), unless the State Defendants have probable cause to believe that such individual has committed a crime. For purposes of this Order, such persons shall not be required to disperse following the issuance of an order to disperse, and such persons shall not be subject to arrest for not dispersing following the issuance of an order to disperse. Such persons shall, however, remain bound by all other laws;
  2. using chemical agents directed against any person whom they know or reasonably should know is a Journalist, including but not limited to mace/oleoresin capsicum spray or mist/pepper spray/pepper gas, tear gas, skunk, inert smoke, pepper pellets, xylyl bromide, and similar substances, unless such Journalist presents an imminent threat of violence or bodily harm to persons or damage to property; and
  3. seizing any photographic equipment, audio- or videorecording equipment, or press passes from any person whom the State Defendants know or reasonably should know is a Journalist, or ordering such person to stop photographing, recording, or observing a protest, unless the State Defendants are lawfully seizing that person consistent with this Order. Except as expressly provided in Paragraph 3 below, the State Defendants must return any seized equipment or press passes immediately upon release of a person from custody.

[3.] If any State Defendant, agent or employee of the State Defendants, or any person acting under the State Defendants’ direction seizes property from a Journalist who is lawfully arrested consistent with this Order, such State Defendant shall, as soon thereafter as is reasonably possible, make a written list of seized property and shall provide a copy of that list to the Journalist. If property seized in connection with the lawful arrest of a Journalist is needed for evidentiary purposes, the State Defendants shall promptly seek a search warrant, subpoena, or other court order to authorize the continued seizure of such property. If such a search warrant, subpoena, or other court order is denied, or if property seized in connection with an arrest is not needed for evidentiary purposes, the State Defendants shall immediately return the seized property to its rightful possessor.

[4.] To facilitate the State Defendants’ identification of Journalists protected under this Order, the following shall be considered indicia of being a Journalist: visual identification as a member of the press, such as by carrying a professional or authorized press pass or wearing a professional or authorized press badge or other official press credentials or distinctive clothing that identifies the wearer as a member of the press. These indicia are not exclusive, and a person need not exhibit every indicium to be considered a Journalist under this Order. The State Defendants shall not be liable for unintentional violations of this Order in the case of an individual who does not carry or wear a press pass, badge, or other official press credential or distinctive clothing that identifies the wearer as a member of the press.

[5.] The State Defendants are not precluded by the Order from issuing otherwise lawful crowd-dispersal orders. The State Defendants shall not be liable for violating this injunction if a Journalist is incidentally exposed to crowd-control devices after remaining in the area where such devices were deployed, in conjunction with the enforcement of an otherwise lawful dispersal order.

This raises interesting questions about who is “a member of the press”; for instance, would anyone who is gathering information to communicate the public qualify? (The First Amendment has generally been understood as protecting everyone who uses mass communications technology, rather than creating some specific rights for people who are employed by some media enterprise.) What happens if lots of people wear what appears to be a “professional … press pass” or “distinctive clothing,” precisely because that authorizes them not to disperse when ordered to do so?

I don’t know if much law has been developed recently that helps clarify such matters (which of course arise in other such protest coverage cases as well); but for now, I thought I’d flag the order, which seems interesting and important. If you’re interested in more of the court’s First Amendment analysis, see here.

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“It’s Totally Insane. Someone Made A Million On Dogecoin With His Stimulus Check”

“It’s Totally Insane. Someone Made A Million On Dogecoin With His Stimulus Check”

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“What happened with Dogecoin Dad?” asked Jackson on FaceTime. I smiled. Dogecoin jumped from $0.06 to $0.47 – a 7.8x weekly jump to a $60bln+ market cap.

“It’s totally insane,” he said Friday night, back from lacrosse practice, sitting down to study, life as a plebe. “Are your buddies trading crypto now?” I asked.

“One supposedly made a million on Dogecoin with his stimulus check,” said Jackson, eyes wide.

“Not possible Jax, at today’s panic high it was up just 77x this year, and you guys only got $1,400 checks,” I said.

“He bought it with last year’s stimulus,” explained Jackson.

“Still doesn’t add up. Dogecoin is only up 165x since the beginning of 2020,” I said, shrugging, the meaning of money quietly slipping away.

* * *

Those things that make the least sense are where you discover opportunity, risk too. They are opposite sides of the same thing: Change.

So any truly interesting conversation explores things that boggle the mind. My favorite enigma in the physical world is quantum entanglement, which I’m convinced hints at something utterly extraordinary. But I leave that mystery to those a million times smarter, which frees my time to search for things that might make money. Sounds shallow. Empty. I know. Mara reminds me often. But the human mind is the universe’s greatest enigma and when you connect 8.5bln of them the possible futures are more uncertain than any particle being split at CERN. When put that way, exploring the profound uncertainty flowing from mass human psychology seems less meaningless.

That’s not to say things always appear uncertain. Most of the time, tomorrow looks indistinguishable from today. Which is to say, boring. During those periods, leveraged investment strategies that bet on recent correlations persisting well into the future tend to do well. So in recent years, when massive firms built upon such strategies struggled for reasons few could quite explain, it was a sign of change. Risk. Opportunity.

When equity factors started experiencing 10,000-year floods every other month, it was another sign.

Our political division in a pandemic, a sign. The horned Shaman in America’s capitol. GameStop. Signs. Study market history and you find that in periods of quantum change, those things that make the least sense but show mysterious momentum (both up and down) present the greatest opportunities.

Beeple sold an NFT for $69.3mm in March. Literally everyone saw it as a sign of a bubble. Perhaps everyone is right. But I’m more interested in exploring whether the accelerating emergence of soaring valuations in things that make little sense represents a historic change, a future that few can barely imagine, let alone grasp.

Particularly when such powerful incumbent industries and institutions so vocally resist. And Coinbase went public, briefly touching a $100bln valuation.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 18:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Qh8HtQ Tyler Durden

Court Order Protecting People Displaying Press Passes and Covering Protests in Minnesota

From Judge Wilhelmina M. Wright’s decision Friday in Goyette v. City of Minneapolis:

The individual Plaintiffs are journalists, photographers, and other members of the press who bring this lawsuit on behalf of themselves and other similarly situated individuals….

On May 25, 2020, George Floyd died as a result of an encounter with four officers of the Minneapolis Police Department, including then-officer Derek Chauvin. Plaintiffs commenced this lawsuit in June 2020 alleging that the State Defendants engaged in a pattern and practice of infringing the constitutional rights of members of the press who were documenting the protests that followed George Floyd’s death. In response to the protests, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz implemented nighttime curfews in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, with an exemption for members of the press. The State Defendants allegedly disregarded the press exemption and targeted the press. According to Plaintiffs, the State Defendants threatened, harassed, assaulted and arrested members of the press in multiple incidents over several days after the death of George Floyd. Goyette moved for a temporary restraining order to prevent the State Defendants from further violating the constitutional rights of the press. The Court denied the motion without prejudice because the protests had quelled and Goyette failed to demonstrate an imminent threat of harm.

Recently, additional protests have occurred in Minnesota in connection with the now-ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin. On April 11, 2021, a Brooklyn Center police officer shot and killed Daunte Wright, which led to additional ongoing protests. Plaintiffs allege that the State Defendants continue to violate the constitutional rights of the members of the press who are covering these protests.

Plaintiffs allege several examples, including the police firing rubber bullets at a videographer who was a safe distance from other protestors, orders directing the press to disperse despite the curfew orders expressly exempting the press, and various other acts impeding the press’s ability to observe and report about the protests and law enforcement’s interactions with protestors….

The court granted the following temporary restraining order, to last (at least initially) for 14 days:

[2.] Defendants Minnesota Department of Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington, in his individual and official capacity; Minnesota State Patrol Colonel Matthew Langer, in his individual and official capacity; and their agents, servants, employees and representatives (“State Defendants”), are hereby enjoined from:

  1. arresting, threatening to arrest, or using physical force—including through use of flash bang grenades, non-lethal projectiles, riot batons, or any other means—directed against any person whom they know or reasonably should know is a Journalist (as defined Paragraph 4 below), unless the State Defendants have probable cause to believe that such individual has committed a crime. For purposes of this Order, such persons shall not be required to disperse following the issuance of an order to disperse, and such persons shall not be subject to arrest for not dispersing following the issuance of an order to disperse. Such persons shall, however, remain bound by all other laws;
  2. using chemical agents directed against any person whom they know or reasonably should know is a Journalist, including but not limited to mace/oleoresin capsicum spray or mist/pepper spray/pepper gas, tear gas, skunk, inert smoke, pepper pellets, xylyl bromide, and similar substances, unless such Journalist presents an imminent threat of violence or bodily harm to persons or damage to property; and
  3. seizing any photographic equipment, audio- or videorecording equipment, or press passes from any person whom the State Defendants know or reasonably should know is a Journalist, or ordering such person to stop photographing, recording, or observing a protest, unless the State Defendants are lawfully seizing that person consistent with this Order. Except as expressly provided in Paragraph 3 below, the State Defendants must return any seized equipment or press passes immediately upon release of a person from custody.

[3.] If any State Defendant, agent or employee of the State Defendants, or any person acting under the State Defendants’ direction seizes property from a Journalist who is lawfully arrested consistent with this Order, such State Defendant shall, as soon thereafter as is reasonably possible, make a written list of seized property and shall provide a copy of that list to the Journalist. If property seized in connection with the lawful arrest of a Journalist is needed for evidentiary purposes, the State Defendants shall promptly seek a search warrant, subpoena, or other court order to authorize the continued seizure of such property. If such a search warrant, subpoena, or other court order is denied, or if property seized in connection with an arrest is not needed for evidentiary purposes, the State Defendants shall immediately return the seized property to its rightful possessor.

[4.] To facilitate the State Defendants’ identification of Journalists protected under this Order, the following shall be considered indicia of being a Journalist: visual identification as a member of the press, such as by carrying a professional or authorized press pass or wearing a professional or authorized press badge or other official press credentials or distinctive clothing that identifies the wearer as a member of the press. These indicia are not exclusive, and a person need not exhibit every indicium to be considered a Journalist under this Order. The State Defendants shall not be liable for unintentional violations of this Order in the case of an individual who does not carry or wear a press pass, badge, or other official press credential or distinctive clothing that identifies the wearer as a member of the press.

[5.] The State Defendants are not precluded by the Order from issuing otherwise lawful crowd-dispersal orders. The State Defendants shall not be liable for violating this injunction if a Journalist is incidentally exposed to crowd-control devices after remaining in the area where such devices were deployed, in conjunction with the enforcement of an otherwise lawful dispersal order.

This raises interesting questions about who is “a member of the press”; for instance, would anyone who is gathering information to communicate the public qualify? (The First Amendment has generally been understood as protecting everyone who uses mass communications technology, rather than creating some specific rights for people who are employed by some media enterprise.) What happens if lots of people wear what appears to be a “professional … press pass” or “distinctive clothing,” precisely because that authorizes them not to disperse when ordered to do so?

I don’t know if much law has been developed recently that helps clarify such matters (which of course arise in other such protest coverage cases as well); but for now, I thought I’d flag the order, which seems interesting and important. If you’re interested in more of the court’s First Amendment analysis, see here.

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Hedge Funds Are Getting The Hell Out Of New York In Favor Of Florida

Hedge Funds Are Getting The Hell Out Of New York In Favor Of Florida

Given the state of New York City throughout the last year – the draconian lockdowns, the neverending proposal of new and more invasive taxes, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez turning away new businesses and insulting corporate America at every chance she gets and well…just about everything Bill de Blasio has done – can anyone really blame hedge funds for taking their business elsewhere?

The inevitable is happening, the free market is speaking. Hedge funds are taking their business to Florida, a new Bloomberg report notes. 

Many who read Zero Hedge already know this: we have constantly been documenting the ongoing exodus to Florida as names like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Apollo Global Management Inc. and Point72 Asset Management are all taking steps to move operations out of the state (or at least diversify operations). 

Timothy Noonan, a law partner at Hodgson Russ who specializes in tax residency issues, recently told Bloomberg: “There definitely is an unprecedented migration of high-net-worth taxpayers from New York City, and some of them are taking their businesses with them. With rates set to go up, they are ready to get out.”

While there is optimism about tourism and leisure providing a much-needed cash infusion back into New York, it’s going to be tough to not take into account the hole that many wealthy defectors will leave in the city’s budget. Florida, on the other hand, doesn’t have a state income tax. 

Elliott Management Corp. “has seen several of its highest-paid executives leave Manhattan” in favor of Palm Beach while Scott Shleifer, co-founder of the private equity unit at the $40 billion Tiger Global Management, also just bought a $132 million home in Palm Beach. Dan Sundheim, who runs $20 billion D1 Capital Partners, is also relocating toward Miami. 

George Sweeting, deputy director of the city’s Independent Budget Office, said: “We’ve had high taxes and it hasn’t driven all the multi-millionaires out. We don’t know what the limit is. At what point does it become more than people are willing to pay? Theoretically there is some point there.”

Thanks, George. It’s called the Laffer Curve and it’s been around for a hundred years. Let us know what you find out.

Meanwhile, in some instances, hedge fund partners will move to Florida but keep staff and operations in New York. They will owe some New York taxes, but likely not as much as they would have otherwise. Bloomberg points out exactly how important the discussion of taxes are to smaller firms:

“Take the example of a manager who makes $10 million per year. In New York City, they would have paid more than $1.1 million in state and local taxes last year, and more like $1.2 million this year after the tax hike. By moving to Florida, the manager avoids that charge every year, as well as about $400,000 annually that their firm owes to the city’s 4% unincorporated business tax.

The savings are even bigger for the most successful managers. In addition to hiking the top rate on single filers earning more than $1.1 million — from 8.82% to 9.65% — the state added two new brackets: income above $5 million will be taxed at 10.3% and $25 million at 10.9%. Adding these to the city’s top rate of 3.88%, rich New York City residents now face marginal rates of 13.5% to 14.8%, surpassing the 13.3% top rate in California, previously the U.S.’s highest.”

Taxpayers in New York earning $10 million or more paid 17% of income taxes in 2018, the report says. In New York City alone, about 1,800 people earned at least $10 million in 2018 and were responsible for 18.5% of the city’s tax revenue, equating to roughly $2.1 billion.

 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 17:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3v4qFOX Tyler Durden

Obama’s Chief Energy Scientist Disputes The Climate-Change Propaganda-Peddlers

Obama’s Chief Energy Scientist Disputes The Climate-Change Propaganda-Peddlers

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

After a stint at the Obama Energy Department, Steven Koonin reclaims the science of a warming planet from the propaganda peddlers.

Beyond the Hype

Please consider the Wall Street Journal report How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller

Barack Obama is one of many who have declared an “epistemological crisis,” in which our society is losing its handle on something called truth. 

Thus an interesting experiment will be his and other Democrats’ response to a book by Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist of the Obama Energy Department. Mr. Koonin argues not against current climate science but that what the media and politicians and activists say about climate science has drifted so far out of touch with the actual science as to be absurdly, demonstrably false.

Mr. Koonin is a Brooklyn-born math whiz and theoretical physicist, a product of New York’s selective Stuyvesant High School. He would teach at Caltech for nearly three decades, serving as provost in charge of setting the scientific agenda for one of the country’s premier scientific institutions. Along the way he opened himself to the world beyond the lab.

From deeply examining the world’s energy system, he also became convinced that the real climate crisis was a crisis of political and scientific candor. He went to his boss and said, “John, the world isn’t going to be able to reduce emissions enough to make much difference.”

His thoughts seem to be governed by an all-embracing realism. Hence the book coming out next month, “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”

 “I’ve been building models and watching others build models for 45 years,” he says. Climate models “are not to the standard you would trust your life to or even your trillions of dollars to.” Younger scientists in particular lose sight of the difference between reality and simulation:

For the record, Mr. Koonin agrees that the world has warmed by 1 degree Celsius since 1900 and will warm by another degree this century, placing him near the middle of the consensus. Neither he nor most economic studies have seen anything in the offing that would justify the rapid and wholesale abandoning of fossil fuels, even if China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others could be dissuaded from pursuing prosperity.

The public now believes CO2 is something that can be turned up and down, but about 40% of the CO2 emitted a century ago remains in the atmosphere. Any warming it causes emerges slowly, so any benefit of reducing emissions would be small and distant. Everything Mr. Koonin and others see in the science suggests a slow, modest effect, not a runaway warming. If they’re wrong, we don’t have tools to apply yet anyway. Decades from now, we might have carbon capture—removing CO2 directly from the atmosphere at a manageable cost.

Even John Kerry, Joe Biden’s climate czar, recently admitted that Mr. Biden’s “net-zero” climate plan will have zero effect on the climate if developing countries don’t go along (and they have little incentive to do so). Mr. Koonin hopes that “a graceful out for everybody” will be to see the impulse for global climate regulation “morph into much more impactful local environmental action: smog, plastic, green jobs. Forget the global aspect of this.”

Slow Modest Impact

The above article is right in line with my stated belief all along. 

I do not doubt the temperatures have risen a degree. I do mock the associated fears.

I am highly skeptical of radical models and I also mock the notion that the world as we know it will soon end and that climate change is the “existential threat of our time” as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has stated.

I am not at all convinced that climate change is totally or mostly man-made but actually that is irrelevant. 

Science suggests a slow modest impact. The models anticipate another rise in the oceans of 1 inch by 2050. Heck call it 3 or 4 inches and expect a foot by 2099 if you like.

50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

Let’s review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

I list 21 predictions and what actually happened. 

What Happens When Ice Melts?

Please factor in the cooling impact of melting ice on ocean temperatures. No one has decent models of ocean cooling.

Nature Magazine reports Melting Ice Could Slow Global Temperature Rise.

If there is a solution, it will be a free market solution not a solution by politicians hyperventilating about something that is now too late to stop and would be worth the cost even if we could stop it.

Name Calling Coming Up

Note that if you Don’t Accept 100% of the Climate Change Story and You Get Labeled a Racist

Koonin knows he will get an avalanche of name-calling that befalls anybody trying to inject some practical nuance into political discussions of climate.

The article had a nice finishing touch: “My married daughter is happy that she’s got a different last name,” said Koonin.

To finish on the practical side, barring a major technological breakthrough,  Global Net Zero Climate Change Targets are ‘Pie in the Sky’

Don’t worry, the world will still be here 50 years from now.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 17:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3egXH7Z Tyler Durden

Navalny’s Team Claims He ‘Could Die At Any Moment’ As US Warns Russia Of “Consequences” 

Navalny’s Team Claims He ‘Could Die At Any Moment’ As US Warns Russia Of “Consequences” 

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has told CNN on Sunday that “We have communicated [to Russia] that there will be consequences if Mr. Navalny dies.”

Alexei Navalny’s name was conspicuously absent from President Biden’s Thursday evening address describing the administration’s latest sanctions against Russia in response to a wide range of issues, mostly focused on the SolarWinds hack and election ‘interference’. 

It was days later, over the weekend, that Navalny’s media team began claiming he’s “dying” in prison. He has for weeks complained that prison doctors have “refused” to treat him for various urgent conditions, particularly a suspected trapped nerve in his back that’s been giving him severe leg problems. 

Via AFP

Following this there were fears he had tuberculosis and possibly COVID-19 – all which became a narrative pushed by his supporters that the Kremlin is “slowly killing him” while serving out a 2.5 year sentence at what’s known as Penal Colony No. 2 east of Moscow. Prison authorities have denied the claims of maltreatment, saying repeatedly that his health is satisfactory and that he has not been denied treatment.

He’s also now three weeks into a hunger strike in protest of the harsh confinement conditions. But given the likely disappointment that his plight has begun to fall out of Western media coverage, there was this latest over the weekend

Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is three weeks into a hunger strike, protesting the lack of medical attention he has received while in prison. Now, his doctor fears his death is imminent.

Physician Yaroslav Ashikhmin said test results that Navalny’s family shared with him reveal increased potassium levels, which could lead to cardiac arrest, as well as heightened creatinine levels from deteriorating kidneys.

“Our patient could die at any moment,” Ashikhmin wrote, according to a translated version of his Facebook post on Saturday.

Jake Sullivan addressed the absence of Navalny’s name among Biden’s latest Russia sanctions remarks as follows:

Asked whether a POTUS-Putin summit would still take place if Navalny dies, Sullivan says he is not going to get into hypotheticals largely because there is no summit even on the books yet—but adds that it would have to take place in the right circumstances and at the right time.

So it looks like Navalny is indeed once again getting the White House’s attention, given Sullivan’s new threat of “consequences” against Russia if the anti-Putin activist who last August said he was poisoned with nerve agent.

His allegations against prison authorities and against Putin himself are likely to grow louder and to continue. Most recently he alleged in a statement shared on Instagram that amid his hunger strike prison guards are now threatening to force feed him. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/18/2021 – 16:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3tyQNl0 Tyler Durden