Drone Photography Potentially Protected by First Amendment

From today’s decision by Judge Robert Pitman in National Press Photographers Ass’n v. McCraw (W.D. Tex.), in which plaintiffs brought a First Amendment challenge (among other challenges) to the Texas statute limiting drone photography (note that this doesn’t deal with normal trespass law, which might cover certain drone usage that is physically over private property):

The Surveillance Provisions [Sections 423.002, 423.003, 423.004, and 423.006] declare it unlawful to “capture an image of an individual or privately owned real property in [Texas] with the intent to conduct surveillance on the individual or property contained in the image.” …

Plaintiffs are challenging the use of UAVs for the purpose of newsgathering and recording, “which is necessarily included within the First Amendment’s guarantee of speech and press rights as a corollary of the right to disseminate the resulting recording.” ACLU of Ill. v. Alvarez (7th Cir. 2012). Plaintiffs have plausibly alleged that the surveillance provisions are burdening expressive conduct—taking photos and video for newsgathering purposes. To the extent that Defendants argue that “surveillance” is distinguishable from photography and therefore the surveillance provisions are not prohibiting protected expressive conduct, that argument only highlights the dispute over the vagueness of the term “surveillance.”

Content-based restrictions on First Amendment protected activity “are presumptively unconstitutional and may be justified only if the government proves that they are narrowly tailored to serve compelling state interests.” A regulation of speech is content-based if it either “applies to particular speech because of the topic discussed or the idea or message expressed,” or discriminates between speakers in a way that “disfavors” certain speakers from exercising their First Amendment rights.

Plaintiffs have sufficiently pled that the Surveillance Provisions apply speaker-based discrimination and are thus content-based. Plaintiffs argue that because the Surveillance Provisions exempt certain speakers from liability, other speakers such as journalists face liability because of the type of speaker they are. Certain individuals are permitted to capture UAV images under the Surveillance Provisions, such as professors,students,professionalengineers,andinsurancecompanyemployees.

Defendants argue that these exemptions are not speaker-based discrimination because the same person could be permitted to use a UAV for an academic purpose, but not for newsgathering—regardless of that person’s identity. The Court disagrees that Defendants’ distinction means the Surveillance Provisions are not speaker-based. The regulation is not speaker-neutral just because one person may simultaneously fall into multiple categories of speakers under the Surveillance Provisions. Instead, the Surveillance Provisions are discriminating based on the type of speaker someone is at the time they are using a UAV because of the exceptions listed in Section 423.002….

{Plaintiffs also argue that the Surveillance Provisions are content-based because they include exemptions based on the purpose of the images captured with a UAV, such as “professional or scholarly research,” operations and maintenance of utility or telecommunications facilities,” and “mapping.” Defendants argue that because the same image can be prohibited or allowed under the Surveillance Provisions based on how it is being used, the content of the image is not the discriminating factor. Because there is also speaker-based discrimination requiring the application of strict scrutiny, the Court does not reach this issue.}

As a result, the Court should apply strict scrutiny. See Sorrell v. IMS Health Inc. (2011). Even assuming that Defendants will demonstrate a compelling government interest, Plaintiffs have plausibly argued that the Surveillance Provisions are not narrowly tailored to protect this interest in light of the numerous exceptions included in the Surveillance Provisions. Plaintiffs question why government interests in privacy and public safety are implicated for journalists using UAVs, but not for other individuals exempted under the Surveillance Provisions. The Court agrees that some of these exceptions leave open the question of whether the Surveillance Provisions are narrowly tailored. As a result, Plaintiffs’ complaint has plausibly alleged that the Surveillance Provisions impermissibly impose content-based restrictions….

I’m inclined to agree that the speaker classification here is content-based, because the only explanation for the preference for certain speakers is that the government expects them to produce content that it sees as more valuable than the content produced by other speakers.

The court also concluded that the Surveillance Provisions were “impermissibly vague because they do not define the term ‘surveillance'”:

[A]t no point do Defendants attempt to define the term “surveillance” or point to any authority or evidence that outlines what type of UAV use is prohibited under “surveillance.” They argue that Plaintiffs have not shown their actions would violate the Surveillance Provisions, but never take a stance on whether the activities at issue would be prohibited by the Surveillance Provisions.

Defendants instead argue it is a factual inquiry as to whether Plaintiffs’ conduct is prohibited by the Surveillance Provisions, not a question of whether the provisions are themselves vague. However, Defendants never indicate what interpretation of the Surveillance Provisions should govern such a factual inquiry, and instead only assert that “[o]rdinary persons are perfectly capable of understanding the meaning of the word ‘surveillance.'” With multiple possible broad dictionary definitions from Plaintiffs, and  no clarity offered from Defendants, the Court finds that Plaintiffs have plausibly pled that the Surveillance Provisions are unconstitutionally vague.

The court then turned to the No-Fly Provisions, which ban the use of drones “over a correctional facility, detention facility, or critical infrastructure facility” or “over a sports venue,” and ban “drones from ‘mak[ing] contact with’ such a facility or to allow it ‘to come within a distance … that is close enough to interfere with the operations of or cause a disturbance to the facility'”:

Plaintiffs plead that the No-Fly Provisions violate the First Amendment as an unconstitutional restraint on expressive conduct. In the alternative, Plaintiffs also plead that the No-Fly Provisions impose an incidental restraint on protected conduct, in which case intermediate scrutiny applies. Under intermediate scrutiny, regulation is only permissible if the government has the power to enact the regulation and the regulation (1) “furthers an important or substantial government interest” that is (2) “unrelated to the suppression of free expression” and (3) narrowly tailored to advance that interest. Plaintiffs have sufficiently pled facts to plausibly allege the No-Fly Provisions are unconstitutional under intermediate scrutiny.

Even assuming the No-Fly Provisions further an important government interest and that interest is unrelated to the suppression of free expression, which the parties dispute, Plaintiffs have adequately pled the No-Fly Provisions are not narrowly tailored. While Defendants have pointed to government interests that may be sufficient to meet the first requirement of an important or substantial government interest, Plaintiffs allege that the exemptions for commercial interests in the No-Fly Provision undercut the purported importance of these government interests.

The Court agrees that Plaintiffs have plausibly raised questions as to how these government interests could be threatened by newsgathering but not by commercial activities. This inconsistent prohibition of UAVs indicates that the No-Fly Provisions are restricting more speech than necessary to achieve the government’s alleged interests.

Plaintiffs have also plausibly pled that the No-Fly Provisions are vague and overbroad because “commercial purpose” is not defined in the exemptions from the No-Fly Provisions and is often construed to exclude newsgathering. Plaintiffs cite multiple dictionary definitions of “commercial” that do not provide clear guidance on whether photojournalism is included. For instance, “the buying and selling of goods” seems less likely to include photojournalism. Whereas Plaintiffs assert that other dictionaries define “commercial” to mean any moneymaking enterprise, seemingly more likely to include photojournalism within the definition.

But the court rejected the plaintiffs’ claims that the No-Fly Provisions were preempted by the federal scheme for regulating aviation safety.

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“Copyright Troll” Richard Liebowitz Suspended (on Interim Basis) from S.D.N.Y. Bar

From an order issued today (see pp. 8-10 of Usherson v. Bandshell Artist Management):

This matter comes before the Committee on Grievances for the Southern District of New York … to consider the imposition of discipline against respondent Richard Liebowitz … based upon charges brought against him by the Committee on August 5, 2020 …. Given the current status of the investigation as confidential, both the Charges and the investigation underlying their imposition are referenced without detail in this Order.

The full Committee [on Grievances for the Southern District of New York] (consisting of Chief Judge McMahon, Judges Castel, Daniels, Nathan, Stanton, Vyskocil, Magistrate Judges Aaron, Cott, and McCarthy, and the undersigned as Chair) has now reviewed [Respondent Richard Liebowitz’s] submission, as well as the record developed during the Committee’s investigation. After careful deliberation, the Committee is unanimously of the view that the Charges are strongly supported by the record. What is more, the Committee is unanimously of the view that interim disciplinary measures against Respondent must be put in place immediately….

The record in this case—which includes Respondent’s repeated disregard for orders from this Court and his unwillingness to change despite 19 formal sanctions and scores of other admonishments and warnings from judges across the country—leads the Committee to the view that recurrence is highly likely. In short, in light of the nature and seriousness of the Charges, the strength of the record supporting those Charges, and the risk and danger of recurrence, the Committee concludes that an interim suspension of Respondent from the practice of law before this Court pending final adjudication of the charges against him is warranted.

In the exercise of its discretion, the Committee will defer the final adjudication of the charges against Respondent currently pending before this Committee, as well as any other charges this Committee sees fit to bring against Respondent in the future as part of these disciplinary proceedings, until after Respondent has had an opportunity to present his defense to the Charges at an evidentiary hearing before a Magistrate Judge of this Court.

Accordingly, for the reasons set forth above, Respondent is hereby suspended from practicing law in the Southern District of New York, effective the date hereof, pending the outcome of these proceedings and  until further order of this Court. It is further ordered that Respondent is commanded to desist and refrain from the practice of law in the Southern District of New York in any form, either as principal or agent, clerk or employee of another; that Respondent is forbidden to appear as an attorney or counselor-at-law before any judge or Court in the Southern District of New York; that Respondent is forbidden to give another an opinion as to the law or its application or advice in relation thereto as to any matter in the Southern District of New York, all effective the date hereof, until such time as disciplinary matters pending before the Committee have been concluded and until further order of this Court.

This decision may have been related to the June 26 referral by Judge Jesse Furman in Usherson, in an opinion that began thus:

Richard Liebowitz, who passed the bar in 2015, started filing copyright cases in this District in 2017. Since that time, he has filed more cases in this District than any other lawyer: at last count, about 1,280; he has filed approximately the same number in other districts. In that same period, he has earned another dubious distinction: He has become one of the most frequently sanctioned lawyers, if not the most frequently sanctioned lawyer, in the District. Judges in this District and elsewhere have spent untold hours addressing Mr. Liebowitz’s misconduct, which includes repeated violations of court orders and outright dishonesty, sometimes under oath.

He has been called “a copyright troll,” McDermott v. Monday Monday, LLC, No. 17-CV-9230 (DLC), 2018 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 184049, at *9-10 (S.D.N.Y. Oct. 26, 2018); “a clear and present danger to the fair and efficient administration of justice,” Mondragon v. Nosrak LLC, No. 19-CV-1437 (CMA) (NRN), 2020 WL 2395641, at *1, *13 (D. Colo. May 11, 2020); a “legal lamprey[],” Ward v. Consequence Holdings, Inc., No. 18-CV-1734 (NJR), 2020 WL 2219070, at *4 (S.D. Ill. May 7, 2020); and an “example of the worst kind of lawyering,” id. at *3. In scores of cases, he has been repeatedly chastised, warned, ordered to complete ethics courses, fined, and even referred to the Grievance Committee. And but for his penchant for voluntarily dismissing cases upon getting into hot water, the list of cases detailing his misconduct—set forth in an Appendix here—would undoubtedly be longer.

But as the opening paragraph notes, the precise charges are not currently public.

For more on the Richard Liebowitz saga, see some of these posts.

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“Dark Winter” Was A CSIS Scenario Code-Name Covering Biological Weapon Use Against America

“Dark Winter” Was A CSIS Scenario Code-Name Covering Biological Weapon Use Against America

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 17:50

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Could it be possible that the phrase “dark winter”  has some sort of deeper meaning that most of us are not meant to understand?  We have heard that phrase over and over again in recent weeks, and usually it has been used in discussions regarding the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic.  But it also turns out that “Dark Winter” was also a code name for a high level simulation that was conducted back in 2001.  That simulation envisioned a scenario in which a widespread smallpox attack was unleashed inside the United States.  As you will see below, the simulation was “designed to spiral out of control”, and the hypothetical consequences were absolutely disastrous.

The reason why this is a concern is because so many of these “simulations” and “exercises” end up mirroring real life events that happen at a later date.

For example, most of you have probably heard about Event 201 by now.  On October 18th, 2019 a group of prominent individuals gathered in New York City to simulate what would happen during a worldwide coronavirus pandemic

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

Of course COVID-19 started spreading in China just a few weeks later.

We have seen this same pattern happen so many times, and now we are being told over and over again that a “dark winter” is ahead.

For example, Joe Biden specifically warned us about a “dark winter” during the final presidential debate in October

Joe Biden warned at Thursday night’s presidential debate that the U.S. was “about to go into a dark winter,” echoing the concerns of public health experts who caution about increased daily Covid-19 case counts converging with the annual flu season.

“We’re about to go into a dark winter. A dark winter,” Biden said. “And he has no clear plan, and there’s no prospect that there’s going to be a vaccine available for the majority of the American people before the middle of next year.”

It is interesting to note that he repeated the phrase twice.

It is almost as if he was determined to make sure that he said it correctly.

And then he started using the phrase over and over again on the campaign trail and he kept using it even after the voting was over.

For example, here is an instance where he used the phrase on the Monday after the election

Joe Biden on Monday warned that a “very dark winter” is approaching as the U.S. coronavirus case count nears 10 million.

“There is a need for bold action to fight this pandemic,” Biden said in Delaware. “We’re still facing a very dark winter.”

I never thought too much about his use of that phrase, but could it be possible that it is actually some sort of a code word or signal?

We do know that it was a code word for a high level exercise that was held in 2001.  The following comes from Wikipedia

Operation Dark Winter was the code name for a senior-level bio-terrorist attack simulation conducted on June 22–23, 2001.[1][2][3] It was designed to carry out a mock version of a covert and widespread smallpox attack on the United States. Tara O’Toole and Thomas Inglesby of the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies (CCBS) / Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Randy Larsen and Mark DeMier of Analytic Services were the principal designers, authors, and controllers of the Dark Winter project.

It is interesting to note that smallpox is a highly infectious disease that involves sores appearing on the skin.

For those that have read my latest book, you already understand why that detail is so important to me.

And as I already mentioned above, this exercise was specifically designed “to spiral out of control”

Dark Winter’s simulated scenario involved an initial localized smallpox attack on Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with additional smallpox attack cases in Georgia and Pennsylvania. The simulation was then designed to spiral out of control. This would create a contingency in which the National Security Council struggles to determine both the origin of the attack as well as deal with containing the spreading virus. By not being able to keep pace with the disease’s rate of spread, a new catastrophic contingency emerges in which massive civilian casualties would overwhelm America’s emergency response capabilities.

Could it be possible that Biden and others are using the phrase “dark winter” to signal that something is about to spiral out of control?

I don’t know.  I am just asking the question.

In Operation Dark Winter, the spread of smallpox also resulted in a “massive loss of civilian life”

The disastrous contingencies that would result in the massive loss of civilian life were used to exploit the weaknesses of the U.S. health care infrastructure and its inability to handle such a threat. The contingencies were also meant to address the widespread panic that would emerge and which would result in mass social breakdown and mob violence. Exploits would also include the many difficulties that the media would face when providing American citizens with the necessary information regarding safety procedures. Discussing the outcome of Dark Winter, Bryan Walsh noted “The timing–just a few months before the 9/11 attack–was eerily prescient, as if the organizers had foreseen how the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism, would come to consume the U.S. government and public in the years to come.”[4]

So let me try to summarize what we have learned.

Operation Dark Winter envisioned a scenario in which a highly infectious disease that causes sores on the skin spirals out of control and causes a “massive loss of civilian life”.

And suddenly Joe Biden and other elitists have begun repeating this phrase over and over again as we head into 2021.

Be sure to bookmark this page so that you can refer back to it later.

Reality is often stranger than fiction, and the table has been set for some really, really strange things to happen.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

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“Copyright Troll” Richard Liebowitz Suspended (on Interim Basis) from S.D.N.Y. Bar

From an order issued today (see pp. 8-10 of Usherson v. Bandshell Artist Management):

This matter comes before the Committee on Grievances for the Southern District of New York … to consider the imposition of discipline against respondent Richard Liebowitz … based upon charges brought against him by the Committee on August 5, 2020 …. Given the current status of the investigation as confidential, both the Charges and the investigation underlying their imposition are referenced without detail in this Order.

The full Committee [on Grievances for the Southern District of New York] (consisting of Chief Judge McMahon, Judges Castel, Daniels, Nathan, Stanton, Vyskocil, Magistrate Judges Aaron, Cott, and McCarthy, and the undersigned as Chair) has now reviewed [Respondent Richard Liebowitz’s] submission, as well as the record developed during the Committee’s investigation. After careful deliberation, the Committee is unanimously of the view that the Charges are strongly supported by the record. What is more, the Committee is unanimously of the view that interim disciplinary measures against Respondent must be put in place immediately….

The record in this case—which includes Respondent’s repeated disregard for orders from this Court and his unwillingness to change despite 19 formal sanctions and scores of other admonishments and warnings from judges across the country—leads the Committee to the view that recurrence is highly likely. In short, in light of the nature and seriousness of the Charges, the strength of the record supporting those Charges, and the risk and danger of recurrence, the Committee concludes that an interim suspension of Respondent from the practice of law before this Court pending final adjudication of the charges against him is warranted.

In the exercise of its discretion, the Committee will defer the final adjudication of the charges against Respondent currently pending before this Committee, as well as any other charges this Committee sees fit to bring against Respondent in the future as part of these disciplinary proceedings, until after Respondent has had an opportunity to present his defense to the Charges at an evidentiary hearing before a Magistrate Judge of this Court.

Accordingly, for the reasons set forth above, Respondent is hereby suspended from practicing law in the Southern District of New York, effective the date hereof, pending the outcome of these proceedings and  until further order of this Court. It is further ordered that Respondent is commanded to desist and refrain from the practice of law in the Southern District of New York in any form, either as principal or agent, clerk or employee of another; that Respondent is forbidden to appear as an attorney or counselor-at-law before any judge or Court in the Southern District of New York; that Respondent is forbidden to give another an opinion as to the law or its application or advice in relation thereto as to any matter in the Southern District of New York, all effective the date hereof, until such time as disciplinary matters pending before the Committee have been concluded and until further order of this Court.

This decision may have been related to the June 26 referral by Judge Jesse Furman in Usherson, in an opinion that began thus:

Richard Liebowitz, who passed the bar in 2015, started filing copyright cases in this District in 2017. Since that time, he has filed more cases in this District than any other lawyer: at last count, about 1,280; he has filed approximately the same number in other districts. In that same period, he has earned another dubious distinction: He has become one of the most frequently sanctioned lawyers, if not the most frequently sanctioned lawyer, in the District. Judges in this District and elsewhere have spent untold hours addressing Mr. Liebowitz’s misconduct, which includes repeated violations of court orders and outright dishonesty, sometimes under oath.

He has been called “a copyright troll,” McDermott v. Monday Monday, LLC, No. 17-CV-9230 (DLC), 2018 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 184049, at *9-10 (S.D.N.Y. Oct. 26, 2018); “a clear and present danger to the fair and efficient administration of justice,” Mondragon v. Nosrak LLC, No. 19-CV-1437 (CMA) (NRN), 2020 WL 2395641, at *1, *13 (D. Colo. May 11, 2020); a “legal lamprey[],” Ward v. Consequence Holdings, Inc., No. 18-CV-1734 (NJR), 2020 WL 2219070, at *4 (S.D. Ill. May 7, 2020); and an “example of the worst kind of lawyering,” id. at *3. In scores of cases, he has been repeatedly chastised, warned, ordered to complete ethics courses, fined, and even referred to the Grievance Committee. And but for his penchant for voluntarily dismissing cases upon getting into hot water, the list of cases detailing his misconduct—set forth in an Appendix here—would undoubtedly be longer.

But as the opening paragraph notes, the precise charges are not currently public.

For more on the Richard Liebowitz saga, see some of these posts.

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TSLA Surges After S&P Announces It Will Add Automaker At Full Float

TSLA Surges After S&P Announces It Will Add Automaker At Full Float

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 17:31

Leave it to Tesla army of momentum-chasing fanatics to send the stock surging not once but twice on S&P inclusion news.

Two weeks after TSLA hit an all time high after S&P unexpectedly announced that it would include the EV maker in the S&P on December 21, moments ago – in an anticipated announcement – S&P Dow Jones Indices said it has determined that it will add Tesla to the S&P 500 at its full float-adjusted market capitalization weight effective prior to the open of trading on December 21.

Ahead of the determination, S&P considered the expected liquidity of Tesla and the market’s ability to accommodate significant trading volumes. In the end it picked the simplest solution: basically absorbing the entire company in one go.

The reason for S&P’s quandary is that with a market cap of $555BN, or more than Berkshire Hathaway, the moment Tesla is included in the S&P, it would become the 6th largest company in the index, only behind the FAAMGs. 

S&P also said that after the market close on December 11, pro-forma files will be distributed, and a press release will be published announcing which company Tesla will replace in the S&P 500.

Considering that the S&P inclusion is expected to result in some $11 billion in mandatory purchases it is safe to say that TSLA has gotten more than a fair share of upside, with the stock surging by $200 since the S&P announcement, an addition of more than $200 billion to its insane market cap. What’s better is that after surging on Nov 16, the stock spiked some more for good measure after today’s announcement – as if it was a surprise – with the stock up 5% after the close, or adding an additional $20BN in market cap on the exact same news. Because efficient “markets.”

And since the market-cap weighted S&P is likely to dump some of its smallest members in exchange for accepting TSLA, the likely impact on the broader index is new all time highs.

So will Tesla just keep rising to infinity?

Maybe, but according to Gary Black, who was chief executive of Aegon Asset Management from mid 2016 through September, after the initial buying into the Dec. 21 inclusion, the stock may pull back if history is any guide. Black said the shares may fall about 10% to 20%, a pattern that would be consistent with what happened to Facebook after its entry into the S&P 500 seven years ago.

Then again, seven years ago central banks weren’t pumping $300 billion into the market every month.

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Despite “Positive News” On Vaccine Front, The Outlook Remains “Extremely Uncertain” Powell Tells Congress In Prepared Remarks

Despite “Positive News” On Vaccine Front, The Outlook Remains “Extremely Uncertain” Powell Tells Congress In Prepared Remarks

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 17:15

In what was largely a repeat of his Nov 12 comments to a panel hosted by the ECB, Fed Chair Powell warned lawmakers that the US economy remains in a damaged and uncertain state, despite progress made in the development of Covid-19 vaccines, urging them once again to release much needed fiscal stimulus.

“Recent news on the vaccine front is very positive for the medium term,” Powell said in prepared testimony released Monday ahead of a Tuesday hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, although in order not to overplay the optimism – since that may shut down hopes for any new stimulus bill, he said that “significant challenges and uncertainties remain, including timing, production and distribution, and efficacy across different groups.”

As a result, “the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend, in large part, on the success of efforts to keep the virus in check.”

And while economic activity “has continued to recover from its depressed second-quarter level” in recent months “the pace of improvement has moderated” Powell said, in what is a preamble for the latest request for a few trillion in fiscal stimulus funds, which the Fed promises to quickly monetize. Whether or not Congress agrees to release the funds will likely depend on the outcome of the Georgia’s runoff elections in January, which will decide the composition of the Senate.

Tomorrow’s hearing will be the first appearance of Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin together since they disagreed over the expiration of several emergency loan programs set up after the pandemic hit in March.

Commenting on the Fed’s “13(3)” emergency facilities, Powell said that these programs “serve as a backstop to key credit markets and have helped restore the flow of credit from private lenders through normal channels. We have deployed these lending powers to an unprecedented extent. Our emergency lending powers require the approval of the Treasury and are available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. Many of these programs have been supported by funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act).”

Powell also said that the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program – while not widely used currently – “offers a credit backstop for firms that do not currently need funding but may if the pandemic continues to erode their financial condition.”

That said, Powell admitted that the CARES Act assigns sole authority over its funds to Mnuchin, writing that “the Secretary has indicated that these limits do not permit the CARES Act-funded facilities to make new loans or purchase new assets after December 31 of this year. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve will return the unused portion of funds allocated to the lending programs that are backstopped by the CARES Act in connection with their termination at the end of this year. As the Secretary noted in his letter, non-CARES Act funds in the Exchange Stabilization Fund are available to support emergency lending facilities if they are needed.”

In his own set of prepared remarks, Mnuchin said that he continues to believe “that a targeted fiscal package is the most appropriate federal response” and he strongly encourages Congress “to use the $455 billion in unused funds from the CARES Act to pass an additional bill with bipartisan support” adding that the Administration is standing ready to support Congress in this effort to help American workers and small businesses that continue to struggle with the impact of COVID-19.

Mnuchin announced earlier this month that those Fed programs must sunset at the end of December, and asked the central bank to return unused funding authorized for the programs by Congress. The Treasury also said it plans to move that unspent money into its general account, over which Congress has authority.

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Watch: CNN Cancels Christmas – “We Just Can’t Do It This Year”

Watch: CNN Cancels Christmas – “We Just Can’t Do It This Year”

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 17:01

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Not content with metaphorically canceling Christmas in recent years in an attempt to be ‘woke’, CNN wants to literally cancel the holiday this year, declaring “we just can’t do it” because of COVID.

CNN Newsroom host Boris Sanchez rolled out “medical analyst” Dr. Jonathan Reiner, setting up the segment by announcing that Reiner had last week called Thanksgiving “the mother of all super spreader events.”

The Grinch then decreed that Americans shouldn’t even be thinking about gathering or traveling for Christmas.

“People tend to travel, want to travel, want to be with family, but we just can’t do it this year,” Reiner declared.

Turning up the panicometer, Reiner proclaimed that “We’re going to cause needless deaths and particularly that’s among people we really care about, you know, our most vulnerable, our grandparents, our parents, our — our neighbors.”

“We can’t travel this year. We need to stay home,” Reiner asserted, adding “This is a sacrifice that Americans can make and we should be making it for each other.”

“Stay home, mask up, we’ll have a great series of holidays next year. We’ll really have something to celebrate next year,” Reiner concluded.

Why Americans should listen to this guy is anyone’s guess, particularly given that he previously told viewers that simply going outside and breathing could be deadly:

Imagine someone watching CNN (it is hard to do), and then imagine them listening to this clown and calling their relatives to tell them Christmas is off.

Not going to happen, unless you are this guy:

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JP Morgan’s Top Traders Disappointed By 20% Increase As Bonuses Set To Fall Across Wall Street

JP Morgan’s Top Traders Disappointed By 20% Increase As Bonuses Set To Fall Across Wall Street

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 16:44

After all those reports about how Wall Street traders and investment bankers were about to get shorted come bonus season despite fat returns from sales and trading businesses across Wall Street this year, it looks like the top rainmakers at JP Morgan have managed to lock in double-digit increases to their payouts while their colleagues would be lucky to get a lump of coal.  

To wit, Bloomberg reports that JPM is planning to boost bonuses to traders and salespeople, even as compensation is set to decline across the firm.

Instead of the cuts they had been led to expect, Bloomberg reports that bonuses could rise by as much as 20% for some. Though, to be sure, a 20% bump is still less than the 48% jump in revenue for the JPM markets business, so some might still be disappointed. After all, the business generated more than $23 billion in revenue this year.

The biggest U.S. bank may increase variable compensation for traders by 15% to 20% after the business generated a record $23.5 billion of revenue in the first nine months of the year, according to people briefed on the preliminary discussions. Payouts will vary widely among desks depending on performance, and bonuses could still change as the process is in an early stage, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

A 20% bump for traders will come as a disappointment for those hoping payouts would rise in line with the 48% surge in revenue generated by JPMorgan’s markets businesses so far in what was some workers’ busiest and most stressful year ever. Executives are preparing smaller payouts for the rest of the firm, with average bonuses likely to be lower than last year as JPMorgan focuses on reining in costs ahead of an uncertain 2021, the people said. The bank also is planning to freeze raises for most employees at the vice president level and above, the people said, echoing plans by Wells Fargo & Co. to freeze raises for top earners.

Though gains won’t be consistent across desks, and as Bloomberg adds, the “lopsided” compensation between high-earning traders and others at the firm reflects the larger COVID-19 economy, where life has continued on more or less as normal for the ‘haves’, while the ‘have nots’ have seen their whole world turned upside down.

But for traders, commissions have been pouring in amid the most volatile and active markets in years (though, to be sure, swollen loan loss reserves have offset some of the gains). Oddly, while sell-side traders might make out, anaylsts at hedge funds and PE shops might not see as much upside.

Of course, watching millionaire bankers receive fat checks from Jamie Dimon at the close of what has been, for many, a harrowing year just adds insult to injury. But with markets at highs, traders are in a particularly good spot, as even permabull analysts who populate the big brokers research desks have found they can’t raise their S&P 500 year-end targets fast enough.

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Groundhog Day – COVID & “The Science”

Groundhog Day – COVID & “The Science”

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 16:20

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth,

When politicians across the globe tell you they listen to “the science” when defining their COVID measures, they don’t really, they are lying. What they listen to is a shred of science as formulated by their local virologists and epidemiologists, which is inevitably questioned by other scientists.

If this were not the case, the entire world would now be taking the same measures, and there would not be any discussions in the scientific community. Still, when measures are imposed in various countries, they are imposed as some kind of law. Lockdowns are popular among failed and failing politicians, because they see it as a failsafe measure (there’s nothing more extreme). But that is only because they have never moved beyond the “COVID is the only problem we have” mindframe.

Still, even then, it would be wise to recognize these measures as arbitrary. That’s why they differ from one place to another; they make it up as they go along, guided by their limited understanding of the issue. What US Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch opined on New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s decree on closing churches, as the court struck down the decree, is a fine example of why they are arbitrary:

Things tend to be better defined when courts of law rule on them. That’s what courts are for. Which is why we should pay attention when a Portuguese court states that PCR tests are 97% unreliable. We don’t pay attention, because our media ignore that ruling. And we continue to use the PCR test on a massive scale, even if its own inventor says it shouldn’t be used for this purpose. And so says the box that it comes in. “The science”? No, it’s not.

And for all those countries that close their stores and schools, this from Canada should perhaps, no, definitely, open eyes:

If only 1.5% of COVID deaths happen outside of long term care homes, the “science” doesn’t say close your schools and stores and make everyone wear a mask 24 hours a day, the science says pump massive amounts of resources into those care homes in order to stop the misery there. Closing stores will not do that. It will have other, very negative, effects though, while you’re not taking care of the care homes.

This is from Peter Andrews, a geneticist and science journalist: Landmark Legal Ruling Finds That Covid PCR Tests Are Not Fit For Purpose

Four German holidaymakers who were illegally quarantined in Portugal after one was judged to be positive for Covid-19 have won their case, in a verdict that condemns the widely-used PCR test as being up to 97% unreliable. Earlier this month, Portuguese judges upheld a decision from a lower court that found the forced quarantine of four holidaymakers to be unlawful. The case centred on the reliability (or lack thereof) of Covid-19 PCR tests. The verdict, delivered on November 11, followed an appeal against a writ of habeas corpus filed by four Germans against the Azores Regional Health Authority. This body had been appealing a ruling from a lower court which had found in favour of the tourists, who claimed that they were illegally confined to a hotel without their consent.

The tourists were ordered to stay in the hotel over the summer after one of them tested positive for coronavirus in a PCR test – the other three were labelled close contacts and therefore made to quarantine as well. The deliberation of the Lisbon Appeal Court is comprehensive and fascinating. It ruled that the Azores Regional Health Authority had violated both Portuguese and international law by confining the Germans to the hotel. The judges also said that only a doctor can “diagnose” someone with a disease, and were critical of the fact that they were apparently never assessed by one. They were also scathing about the reliability of the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, the most commonly used check for Covid.

The conclusion of their 34-page ruling included the following: “In view of current scientific evidence, this test shows itself to be unable to determine beyond reasonable doubt that such positivity corresponds, in fact, to the infection of a person by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.” In the eyes of this court, then, a positive test does not correspond to a Covid case. The two most important reasons for this, said the judges, are that, “the test’s reliability depends on the number of cycles used’’ and that “the test’s reliability depends on the viral load present.’’ In other words, there are simply too many unknowns surrounding PCR testing.

This is not the first challenge to the credibility of PCR tests. Many people will be aware that their results have a lot to do with the number of amplifications that are performed, or the ‘cycle threshold.’ This number in most American and European labs is 35–40 cycles, but experts have claimed that even 35 cycles is far too many, and that a more reasonable protocol would call for 25–30 cycles. (Each cycle exponentially increases the amount of viral DNA in the sample). [..] The Portuguese judges cited a study conducted by “some of the leading European and world specialists,” which was published by Oxford Academic at the end of September. It showed that if someone tested positive for Covid at a cycle threshold of 35 or higher, the chances of that person actually being infected is less than three percent, and that “the probability of… receiving a false positive is 97% or higher.”

Then there are the vaccines that everyone’s so hyped up about. Gilbert Berdine, MD, writing for the Mises Institute, has some questions about the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines (anything to do with why Twitter suspended the institute’s account)?

What exactly is a “case” of COVID? It can’t be a positive PCR test, not if those are only 3% reliable. So “the science” must be doing something wrong, and with them just about any government on the planet.

And yes, Pfizer and Moderna have dollar signs in their eyes. There are many questions about the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, and I can’t help thinking they are linked to the fact that it’s not-for-profit. Likewise, the complete silence about Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is also curious. We want to solve the problem only if our own scientists and the Big Pharma they work for can do it?

What The COVID Vaccine Hype Fails To Mention

Both trials have a treatment group that received the vaccine and a control group that did not. All the trial subjects were covid negative prior to the start of the trial. The analysis for both trials was performed when a target number of “cases” were reached. “Cases” were defined by positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. There was no information about the cycle number for the PCR tests. There was no information about whether the “cases” had symptoms or not. There was no information about hospitalizations or deaths. The Pfizer study had 43,538 participants and was analyzed after 164 cases. So, roughly 150 out 21,750 participants (less than 0.7%) became PCR positive in the control group and about one-tenth that number in the vaccine group became PCR positive.

The Moderna trial had 30,000 participants. There were 95 “cases” in the 15,000 control participants (about 0.6%) and 5 “cases” in the 15,000 vaccine participants (about one-twentieth of 0.6%). The “efficacy” figures quoted in these announcements are odds ratios. There is no evidence, yet, that the vaccine prevented any hospitalizations or any deaths. The Moderna announcement claimed that eleven cases in the control group were “severe” disease, but “severe” was not defined. If there were any hospitalizations or deaths in either group, the public has not been told.

When the risks of an event are small, odds ratios can be misleading about absolute risk. A more meaningful measure of efficacy would be the number to vaccinate to prevent one hospitalization or one death. Those numbers are not available. An estimate of the number to treat from the Moderna trial to prevent a single “case” would be fifteen thousand vaccinations to prevent ninety “cases” or 167 vaccinations per “case” prevented which does not sound nearly as good as 94.5% effective.

The publicists working for pharmaceutical companies are very smart people. If there were a reduction in mortality from these vaccines, that information would be in the first paragraph of the announcement.

There is no information about how long any protective benefit from the vaccine would persist. Antibody response following covid-19 appears to be short lived. Based on what we know, the covid vaccine may require two shots every three to six months to be protective. The more shots required, the greater the risk of side effects from sensitization to the vaccine. There is no information about safety. None. Government agencies like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) appear to have two completely different standards for attributing deaths to covid-19 and attributing side effects to covid vaccines.

If these vaccines are approved, as they likely will be, the first group to be vaccinated will be the beta testers. I am employed by a university-based medical center that is a referral center for the West Texas region. My colleagues include resident physicians and faculty physicians who work with covid patients on a daily basis. I have asked a number of my colleagues whether they will be first in line for the new vaccine. I have yet to hear any of my colleagues respond affirmatively.

The reasons for hesitancy are that the uncertainties about safety exceed what they perceive to be a small benefit. In other words, my colleagues would prefer to take their chances with covid rather than beta test the vaccine. Many of my colleagues want to see the safety data after a year of use before getting vaccinated; these colleagues are concerned about possible autoimmune side effects that may not appear for months after vaccination.

Next, we get a look, through the American Institute for Economic Research, at a report that Johns Hopkins University somewhat mysteriously pulled from its website: New Study Highlights Alleged Accounting Error Regarding Covid Deaths

It is already well established that Covid-19 is a disease that is most dangerous to those over the age of 65 and who have preexisting conditions. In the United States, there has been an observed 2.1% mortality rate, with elderly individuals making up over half that number. Young and healthy people are not by any significant capacity threatened by Covid-19. One of the most important factors when it comes to Covid-19 is preventing excess death. According to the CDC, “Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”

Essentially, there is an average number of deaths every year due to a variety of causes that for the most part have remained constant through the years. This includes morbidities such as heart disease, which has long been the leading cause of death, and cancer, which has long plagued our existence. For Covid-19 to be a serious cause of alarm, it would need to significantly increase the number of average deaths. However, according to the study, “These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.” Total deaths in the United States show no significant change and even mirror past trends of seasonal illness.

[..] What is even more interesting if not more alarming is that the spike in recorded Covid-19 deaths seen in 2020 has coincided with a proportional decrease in death from other diseases. Yanni Gu writes “This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.” Deaths have remained relatively constant, yet reported deaths due to deadly conditions such as heart disease have fallen while reported Covid deaths have risen. This suggests that the current Covid death count is in some capacity relabeled deaths due to other ailments. According to the graph, reported Covid deaths even overtook heart disease as the main cause of death at one point, which should raise suspicion.

And when you see the Clinical Infectious Diseases journal report that some 53 million American may already have been infected, you must ask what the use is of all the COVID measures at this point in time. If this is true in the US, chances are it is true in virtually any other location.

Looks like everybody has it and only people in care homes die from it, and on top of that many of those people didn’t actually die from COVID but from some other affliction. And for that we are closing down our entire societies, force massive amounts of businesses into bankruptcy, force millions upon millions into unemployment. All while relying on a test method that is 97% unreliable.

Total COVID19 Cases In US May Be Eight Times Higher Than Reported

The actual number of Covid-19 infections in the U.S. could be about eight times as much as the total reported cases, a model created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated. The model published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases suggests that nearly 53 million people in the U.S. had been infected with Covid-19 by the end of September. The estimate is around eight times higher than the 7.1 million confirmed cases that had been reported back then. The model tries to account for the fact that most cases of Covid-19 are mild and therefore go unreported. The scientists, however, warned that by the end of September, 84% of the U.S. population had not been infected and was still at risk of catching the disease.

If the trend of unreported cases still holds true as of Thursday, the U.S. — which has 12.5 million confirmed cases — could be approaching 100 million total infections across the country. In October, the World Health Organisation had said that nearly 10% of the world population or nearly 760 million people may have already been infected with Covid-19, despite the fact that only 35 million confirmed cases had been recorded as of that time.

“When you count anything, you can’t count it perfectly,” Mike Ryan, the executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, had said back then adding, “But I can assure you that the current numbers are likely an underestimate of the true toll of Covid.” Scientists have also suggested that deaths due to the pandemic have also been severely undercounted, with the CDC stating that the U.S. had recorded nearly 300,000 excess deaths during the pandemic as of October 3. This number was nearly 100,000 deaths more than what had been officially recorded by the states.

What we need is actual science. Not “a science” or “some science”, but undisputed science. Einstein’s E=MC2 is science, that’s the level we need. Not disputable pseudo-science. Yes, there’s panic among politicians and scientists alike, yes, there is Long-COVID, yes there are people with multiple organ failure, but you will still have to do risk-assessment, you must look at how many people are involved.

And if you’re talking 0.01% of people, you need to wonder if it’s worthwhile to close down your entire society in a Great Reset kind of fashion. Likewise, forcing everyone to wear facemasks outside is something that must be evaluated as per risk factors. What is the risk of infecting anyone while just passing them in the street? It’s never zero, but no risk is ever zero. And if it’s 0.001%, does that justify turning your streets into a zombified society that puts everyone on edge?

“The science” needs to evolve, and it doesn’t appear to have done that. We’re back to square one all the time. COVID equals Groundhog Day. “Well, that didn’t help, so let’s do more of the same”. By now, the science, to remain believable, should have developed, moved on. It hasn’t. The hope for vaccines has taken on desperate levels, and the reliance on Big Pharma doesn’t help. Nor does the outright rejection of Russian, Chinese, Cuban vaccines. All nations with excellent medical resources, but ignored for political reasons. This is not the time to play politics. It’s a time for science to step up to the plate.

Are things much worse in countries that leave their stores open? Are they in places that don’t make people wear facemasks 24/7? The “science” should answer those questions by now. What else are they doing? But it’s not happening. COVID vs “The Science”: 1-0.

*  *  *

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Global Stocks Soar To Best Month Ever As Bitcoin Hits Record High

Global Stocks Soar To Best Month Ever As Bitcoin Hits Record High

Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/30/2020 – 16:00

Global stocks soared over 13% in November – the greatest monthly gain in its history – apparently on the heels of vaccine news…

Source: Bloomberg

“What’s really taken most people by surprise is that if anybody said to you in March, ‘Hey we’re going to have a year where really most businesses are working at not-full capacity, most restaurants may not even be open, people aren’t going to the office, and oh yeah, by the way, we’ll hit all-time highs,’ people would have thought you were nuts,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.

“It’s been amazing.”

A $15 trillion rise in global liquidity helped to lift global stocks off those March lows, and continue to inflate asset prices everywhere…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent “Extreme” greed to “Extremer” greed…

Source: CNN

Critically, if one really believes that stocks soared on fundamentals in November, then why did global bond yields tumble?! (NOTE – that is the lowest bond yield since August)

Source: Bloomberg

And as global stocks and bonds rallied, the dollar was battered to its 2nd worst month in almost 3 years (and down 7 of the last 8 months) to its weakest against its fiat peers since April 2018 (and unchanged since Jan 2015)…

Source: Bloomberg

This was also European stocks best month on record…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, Small Caps were the best performers in November and Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were the laggards (but even so they rose over 10%)…

Source: Bloomberg

This was Small Caps’ best month ever, soaring to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Dow’s best month since Jan 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

And that happened as US macro dats plunged (for the 4th straight month) by the most since April…

Source: Bloomberg

So – a quick summary – COVID cases, deaths, and ICU hospitalizations are (according to the media) exploding higher, Xmas is cancelled, US macro data is rolling over fast, bonds know this vaccine malarkey ain’t coming anytime soon, there’s no big stimulus anytime soon, and damn-it-Janet can only do so much with gridlock… all of which explains why stocks are at record highs…

Small Caps have outperformed Big-Tech for 3 straight months (the biggest 3mo outperformance since 2002), but we note the last couple of days have seen that Russell/Nasdaq rise stall at what looks like recent resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum collapsed in November…

Source: Bloomberg

… underperforming value by the most since April 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals significantly outperformed defensives post-vaccine…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were November’s massive outperformer, soaring over 31% (slightly higher than April’s surge) – for the greatest monthly performance for Energy stocks ever…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX collapsed by almost 17 vols in November, its second biggest monthly compression in history…

November saw a combined bond/stock portfolio’s second-best monthly gain since March 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks soared, US Treasury yields ended November significantly lower (30Y -9bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, 30Y Yields stalled their “rout” higher at 1.75% once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar had an ugly month despite spikes on the election and 4 Monday vaccine ramps…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar dived, the Columbian Peso, Norwegian Krone, Brazilian Real, and Turkish Lira all soared with only the Argentine Peso weaker against the dollar on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a massive month with Bitcoin up around 40% – its best month since May 2019 – and Ethereum outperforming that…

Source: Bloomberg

Sending Bitcoin to a new all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s last week or so has been an impressive roller-coaster to say the least…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude and copper soared as PMs sank in November…

Source: Bloomberg

This was WTI’s best month since May 2020…

This was Gold’s worst month since Nov 2016 (and is down for 3 straight months)… despite the dollar’s drop…

Interestingly, gold has dropped as the volume of global negative-yielding debt soared to a new record high over $17.4 trillion…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold’s move is most notable given the drop in the USD. Combined, this is the worst USD-adjusted month for gold since June 2013 (-5.2% Gold, -2.5% USD)…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, the $15 trillion in additional global liquidity has sent the S&P 500 to its most expensive valuation in history…

Source: Bloomberg

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