Stocks Bounce Off Critical Support After Fastest ‘Correction’ From Record High In History

Stocks Bounce Off Critical Support After Fastest ‘Correction’ From Record High In History

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 16:00

What goes down, must come back with a vengeance in this new normal and so stocks did, but Nasdaq is still down 8% from highs…

After the Nasdaq’s 10% collapse in 3 days (the fastest record high to correction plunge in history)…

Despite bad news on COVD vaccines, everything came roaring back today (best day for Nasdaq since April), with The Dow managing to get back to green from Friday’s close. Note some late day weakness as MSFT/WMT faded on TikTok sale chatter…

After Nasdaq and Small Caps bounced perfectly off their 50DMAs…

Just in case you’re shocked, shocked, at the selloff, Morgan Stanley lays out the key catalysts for weakness…

  • Lack of progress on CARES 2 0 (consensus still sees $1.5-$2T getting passed although even Goldman is becoming more skeptical)

  • Gamma reset in megacap Tech due to the Softbank doxxing (massive upside vol structures should begin to roll off, however)

  • Record equity issuance upcoming ($308BN so far YTD in the US or the 100th %-ile back to 2008)

  • September trading seasonality (see MSZZMOMO SEAG on Bloomberg)

  • Diminishing systematic bid (Morgan Stanley now sees only a few $B of global equities to buy vs prior growth estimates)

  • Diminishing bid from retail (next round of stimulus checks may matter)

  • Elevated HE exposure (nets and gross at the 66th and 89th %-ile per MS PB Cotent)

  • Mutual fund year-end (will we finally see outflows/profit-taking if tax-loss-selling was pulled forward in August?)

  • Election permutations (Senate races should remain in focus for those in fear of new tax proposals)

  • US-China re-escalation (hence focus on SMIC over the weekend)

  • Setbacks in the reopening (second wave?)

“Inconceivable!” we know!!

Of course the momo names ruled the rebound…

TSLA up 10%…

AAPL bounced too…

As stocks surged, bonds were dumped with the long-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields reached back up to 70bps after an ugly auction…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was monkey-hammered lower (EUR gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

And as the dollar tanked, gold futures rallied back above $1950…

Silver also rebounded with futures back above $27…

Oil rebounded with WTI back above $38 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Cryptos also rebounded with Bitcoin finding support at $10,000 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it still ain’t cheap!!!

Source: Bloomberg

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3h8QbLO Tyler Durden

Surreal Photos As San Francisco Sky Turns Orange Due To Wildfire Smoke And Ash

Surreal Photos As San Francisco Sky Turns Orange Due To Wildfire Smoke And Ash

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 15:46

Eerie, dark orange clouds enveloped San Francisco and the Bay Area on Wednesday as a result of nearby wildfire smoke entering the atmosphere. Stunning photos were posted by SF Gate on Wednesday showing what looks like a Martian sky, which was yellow on Tuesday, but darkened in color overnight to orange as a result of smoke being pushed inland off the Pacific Ocean. 

According to the, at 10:45 AM local time, “it looked as if it were dawn”.

UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said on Twitter: “Extremely dense & tall smoke plumes from numerous large wildfires, some of which have been generating nocturnal pyrocumulunimbus clouds (‘fire thunderstorms), are almost completely blocking out the sun across some portions of Northern California this morning.”

Another user responded: “I don’t remember orange skies growing up in in the Bay Area, California. Now we have days of not being able to walk outside.”

Jan Null, a meteorologist, said that north winds were “bringing lots of smoke from Oregon.” Oregon had declared a statewide emergency on Tuesdy as a result of the fires  many of which were also causing smoke in Northern California. In some spots, soot and falling ash were reported to be hitting the ground.

National Weather Service forecaster Roger Gass said: “They reported a significant amount of ash. Almost to the point where it looked like moderate to heavy snow.”

The haze in the East Bay got the worst of it, while the rest of the Bay Area had air quality “ranging from good to moderate” on the ground. The fire is actually getting further from the area, but the smoke was pushed inland by a marine layer over the Pacific Ocean.

“That’s the reason it doesn’t smell smoky but the sky is a different color,” Gass commented. 

Null noted: “That’s why air quality isn’t too bad this morning. The smoke is not able to mix down through the inversion. The smoke is also sort of traveling past us.”

You can view dozens more photographs and SF Gate’s article here.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33byu9j Tyler Durden

Los Angeles Bans Halloween Trick-or-Treating Over Coronavirus Fears

reason-doctor

There are few things scarier than an overreaching government. Perhaps to get into the holiday spirit then, Los Angeles has decided to ban trick-or-treating this year.

Late Tuesday, news broke of public health guidelines issued by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LADPH) that ban door-to-door trick-or-treating, Halloween parties where non-members of a household will be present, and haunted houses.

The order, dated from last week, nevertheless allows for online Halloween parties (fun!), drive-in scary movie nights, and Halloween-themed car parades. The county’s new guidelines also graciously permit people to still decorate their homes and yards.

“Since some of the traditional ways in which this holiday is celebrated does not allow you to minimize contact with non-household members, it is important to plan early and identify safer alternatives,” reads the text of the order.

Health officials told The Los Angeles Times that trick-or-treating, in particular, was not going to be allowed “because it can be very difficult to maintain proper social distancing on porches and at front doors.”

Violation of the county’s Public Health Officer order, which was last updated on September 4, is punishable by both fines and imprisonment.

It’s not clear whether those penalties apply to violations of the new Halloween guidelines, or how the county intends to enforce its prohibition on trick-or-treating. Reason requested clarification from LADPH, and will update with any response we receive.

Halloween stoked panic among public health authorities and the general public long before coronavirus. That includes the regular fears about drug- and razor-laced candies, offensive costumes, and sex offenders out on the prowl.

The LAPHD has historically issued warnings about the high-sugar content of Halloween candies, alongside gentle reminders that participating households can hand out plenty of other fun things besides sweets.

Even in a time of rampant public health restrictions, Los Angeles’ crackdown on Halloween seems unnecessarily restrictive. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine a pre-pandemic activity more suited to the requirements of social distancing than trick-or-treating.

The activity occurs outside, where we know the risk of coronavirus transmission is much lower. Everyone is already wearing masks. Curbside pickup, whereby a bowl of candy and maybe a note asking trick-or-treaters to take only one piece, is already a common practice.

On top of that, children, the primary trick-or-treating participants, are at the lowest risk of developing serious COVID-19 symptoms, although they can still spread the disease.

Plenty of people who are at higher risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19 might not want disease vectors showing up at their doorstep. Fortunately, the accepted Halloween tradition of leaving your porch light off if you don’t want to be bothered on that night can help those people too.

Recommending best practices for trick-or-treating seems like a more proportional approach to the transmission risk that Halloween poses. Instead, the county is embracing the most authoritarian possible response to the holiday. Spooky.

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An Open Letter On Political Discourse To Facebook ‘Friends’

An Open Letter On Political Discourse To Facebook ‘Friends’

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 15:30

Authored by Robert Graboyes via InsideSources.com,

As Election Day draws nigh, here are a few thoughts. Hoping you won’t be offended. I treasure my Facebook friends. In this awful time of social isolation, you’ve been my lifeline to humanity.

That goes for my friends who are Democrats, those who are Republicans, and those who are independents or otherwise aligned. I don’t care whom you plan to vote for. I don’t care which politicians you like or dislike.

I do care what you do with those sentiments on Facebook. Though I’m slow to act, at times, posts by friends (of varying political persuasions) have led me to mute them or, on rare occasion, to unfriend them.

If you deeply admire Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and wish to share your positive thoughts on their contributions, past and future, that’s fine. If you want to do the same for Donald Trump and Mike Pence, go for it.

I do wonder why anyone bothers to post such things on Facebook, since everyone you know already has intensely strong views on Biden, Trump, Harris and Pence — and virtually nothing you say will change a single mind. But if sharing earnest, upbeat, positive, well-informed missives pleases you, then good for you.

Thoughtful commentaries on policy are fine, too.

If, on the other hand, you wish to spew floods of negativity and hatred toward politicians you don’t like, then that can be wearing. Again, all your Facebook friends read or see the news. Very likely, you’re not informing anyone of anything they don’t already know or feel.

You’re primarily sticking bamboo shards under the fingernails of those who plan to vote differently from you. If some of your friends disagree with you, I cannot imagine any coherent reason for doing that. And if all of your friends agree with your politics (how sad for you, if that’s the case), then what is the point?

I tend to look past the occasional diatribe and just move on down your timeline. If, however, your timeline becomes an endless stream of invective in either direction, I begin reminding myself of how the mute function works.

Each photo you post of your children, grandchildren, dogs, cats, meals and vacations is a treasure to me. Each ball of political dung you fling is a penalty, a punishment, a tax — even if I plan to vote the same way as you. I am an economist by trade, and when your timeline reaches the point that costs are greater than benefits, it’s mute-button time.

The quickest way to a mute or unfriend command from me, however, is to attack not the politicians, but rather their supporters and voters — many of whom may simply be holding their noses and voting for whomever they perceive to be the less awful choice. (I include broad-brush attacks on all public officials of one party.)

Let me offer a small glimpse into my own political thinking: The 2020 race isn’t Albert Einstein and Mother Teresa on one ticket versus Martin Luther King Jr. and Thomas Aquinas on the other. If I had the last say, both parties would be running different tickets and offering different platforms.

But neither party asked for my thoughts, so I must be charitable toward my friends, regardless of how they plan to vote. If pressed, I can say positive and negative things about both tickets. But, since nothing I write will influence your thoughts or your vote, I don’t do so.

Hence, my Facebook posts generally concern music, food, technology, travel, animals, kind deeds, natural wonders and humor. I work in the realm of public policy, so I sometimes post about topics that hover near the edge of politics and arouse strong positive or negative feelings among my friends. But I try mightily to avoid any implication that those who disagree with me are stupid and/or evil. I enjoy dialogue — not frothing, hurtful, hateful monologues.

My list of Facebook friends is pretty evenly divided politically. I like that. If your choice is to repeatedly vilify half of my friends, then perhaps you have nothing to say that I care to read.

And as long Facebook offers a mute option, I may not be reading you for long.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33k0msa Tyler Durden

One Doctor’s Own Practice Charged Him $10,984 For A COVID Antibody Test

One Doctor’s Own Practice Charged Him $10,984 For A COVID Antibody Test

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 15:15

One doctor in Austin literally got a taste of his own medicine after going to his own practice to get a Covid antibody test. Assuming he would get one for free because he worked for the company, his insurance instead wound up getting a bill from Physicians Premier ER for $10,984. His insurance paid it all.

But the doctor in question, Dr. Zachary Sussman, became so dismayed, he quit his job, according to ProPublica. Now, the parent company of Sussman’s insurer is investigating the case.

Sussman was working part time at four Physicians Premier ER centers, making $4,000 per month to oversee antibody testing. The job was a temporary gig between permanent jobs in Austin and New Mexico. 

He decided he wanted to take his own test in May, before visiting his family, because he had developed a headache. He went to his own company for a test and, knowing “the materials for each antibody test only amounted to about $8, and it gets read on the spot ” – and that he could even administer the test, figured costs would be minimal.

He said he had a quick talk with the ER doctor and there was no physical exam. After 30 minutes, he tested negative. He received his EOB in the mail about a month later showing the charges came to $2,100. “It may as well say Gucci on the outside,” he said about the ER. 

Several weeks later, a second EOB arrived for the Physicians Premier facility charges – these amounted to $8,884.16. He said he felt “spooked” after seeing the bill and realizing his employer had charged his health plan a total of $10,984.16 for the 30 minute visit. 

He tendered his resignation weeks later, stating: “I have decided I can no longer ethically provide Medical directorship services to the company. If not outright fraudulent, these charges are at least exorbitant and seek to take advantage of payers in the midst of the COVID19 pandemic.”

USA Emergency centers responded, telling ProPublica: “The allegations are false. The company takes all complaints seriously and will continue to work directly with patients to resolve issues pertaining to their emergency room care or bill. …The allegations received pertain to a former contracted employee, and we cannot provide details or further comment at this time.”

Shelley Safian, a Florida health care coding expert, called the charges “obscene” and said: “This is the exact opposite of an employee discount. Obviously nobody is minding the store.”

Maria Gordon-Shydlo, a spokeswoman for UnitedHealthcare, which owns Sussman’s insurer, Golden Rule, said: “Golden Rule has put processes in place to address excessive COVID-related billing. We are currently investigating this matter and, if appropriate, will seek to recoup any overpayment and potentially refer this case to law enforcement.”

And this isn’t the first time price gouging of this nature has taken place related to Covid tests. ProPublica had previously pointed out that $175 Covid tests were resulting in charges of $2,479 at another ER in Texas. Even though the price was reduced due to insurance in that case, the charges still must be paid from those who are shelling out for insurance premiums. 

You can read the full ProPublica article here.

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Schiff: Did The Biggest Bubble Ever Just Pop?

Schiff: Did The Biggest Bubble Ever Just Pop?

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 15:04

Via SchiffGold.com,

In a podcast early last week, Peter Schiff called the surging stock market “the biggest bubble ever” and talked about some of the absurdities in the market, particularly in the Nasdaq. Then on Thursday, that bubble may have popped. Peter talked about it in his podcast Friday.

The day after Peter called the market the biggest bubble ever, the Nasdaq broke 12,000 for the first time ever and the Dow Jones pushed back above 29,000. That prompted Donald Trump to tweet about how lucky we are that he’s president. Peter said President Trump has nothing to do with it.

It isn’t so much that we’re lucky to have Trump as president. We’re unlucky to have Powell as Fed chairman because it’s the Fed that is the reason that the Dow and the Nasdaq and the S&P were so high on Wednesday. It’s not because of Trump or his policies. Unless you want to claim that Trump’s policies are why the economy is so weak, and it’s because the economy is so weak that monetary policy is having such a strong impact on the markets because the Fed is printing all this money and keeping interest rates artificially low to compensate for the underlying weakness in the economy.”

That’s not to say Trump caused the economic weakness. He inherited the structural problems from the Obama years. But he didn’t do anything to correct them because a correction would have been too painful.

He turned to the same monetary magicians he had criticized so correctly when he was a candidate.”

The magic may have run out.

Last Thursday, the Nasdaq fell by the most ever percentage-wise off an all-time high. The Nasdaq got as high as 12,074 on Wednesday and then dropped to a low of 10,875 on Friday. It rallied a bit into the close Friday, but still lost 6% in two days. Stock futures in the Nasdaq were still looking bearish Tuesday morning following the Labor Day holiday. Peter said we could be setting up for another October crash, but it’s hard to tell.

Again, this is the biggest bubble ever and so it’s not going to die easy. And so it’s certainly possible that the bulls can get this under control with the help of the Fed.”

Even as the stock market as tanking, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans called for more government fiscal stimulus and said more quantitative easing is in the pipeline.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Fed is coming out with more QE when the market is getting killed. And so the Fed is trying to rescue the market by dangling the prospect of more QE.”

A lot of the “stay at home” stocks such as Zoom were hit hard by the decline along with bubble stocks such as Tesla.

So, could this be the end of the bubble? Peter said it’s hard to say.

As I said, this is the biggest bubble. It is completely irrational. And it’s going to end badly. And it may have already ended. But the bad part is yet to come.”

Peter also talked about the bond market and the Chinese selling US Treasuries, and he touched on bitcoin as well in this podcast.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2F4Wd3b Tyler Durden

Trump’s Iraq Troop Draw-Down To Begin This Month, Top General Announces

Trump’s Iraq Troop Draw-Down To Begin This Month, Top General Announces

Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/09/2020 – 14:39

Previously the Trump administration said it would aim for a major troop reduction in Iraq by the time of the November election

It appears that promise — part of the Trump campaign’s longtime pledge to “bring Americans home” from unnecessary “endless” foreign wars and occupations abroad — is on track to be delivered. Head of US CENTCOM, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, said while touring a US base in Iraq that troop numbers there will be cut down to 3,000 this month.

Current American troops levels are at about 5,200 — though we should note the tens of thousands of US contractors and other privatized personnel that remain there.

File image via Middle East Online

Gen. McKenzie underscored in statements that Washington feels confident that Iraqi forces are now trained to handle any threat from a potentially resurgent ISIS, now long driven underground.

“This reduced footprint allows us to continue advising and assisting our Iraqi partners in rooting out the final remnants of ISIS in Iraq and ensuring its enduring defeat,” McKenzie said.

US training of Iraqi military personnel had reportedly already been scaled back through the course of the coronavirus pandemic, given local as well as international lockdowns and travel restrictions. 

During a Labor Day news conference President Trump raised eyebrows in charging top Pentagon commanders of ultimately being beholden to defense contractors.

Speaking of what sectors of the military are supportive of the Commander-in-Chief, Trump said Monday: “The top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy.”

“Some people don’t like to come home, some people like to continue to spend money,” the president added. “One cold-hearted globalist betrayal after another, that’s what it was.”

However, we should point out that Trump has allowed himself to be stymied at every turn when it comes to his stated desire to get out of Syria. It has now turned into an indefinite “oil occupation” under his watch, which he seems in repeat statements to have positively backed, given his touting “we’ve secured the oil”.

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Los Angeles Bans Halloween Trick-or-Treating Over Coronavirus Fears

reason-doctor

There are few things scarier than an overreaching government. Perhaps to get into the holiday spirit then, Los Angeles has decided to ban trick-or-treating this year.

Late Tuesday, news broke of public health guidelines issued by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LADPH) that ban door-to-door trick-or-treating, Halloween parties where non-members of a household will be present, and haunted houses.

The order, dated from last week, nevertheless allows for online Halloween parties (fun!), drive-in scary movie nights, and Halloween-themed car parades. The county’s new guidelines also graciously permit people to still decorate their homes and yards.

“Since some of the traditional ways in which this holiday is celebrated does not allow you to minimize contact with non-household members, it is important to plan early and identify safer alternatives,” reads the text of the order.

Health officials told The Los Angeles Times that trick-or-treating, in particular, was not going to be allowed “because it can be very difficult to maintain proper social distancing on porches and at front doors.”

Violation of the county’s Public Health Officer order, which was last updated on September 4, is punishable by both fines and imprisonment.

It’s not clear whether those penalties apply to violations of the new Halloween guidelines, or how the county intends to enforce its prohibition on trick-or-treating. Reason requested clarification from LADPH, and will update with any response we receive.

Halloween stoked panic among public health authorities and the general public long before coronavirus. That includes the regular fears about drug- and razor-laced candies, offensive costumes, and sex offenders out on the prowl.

The LAPHD has historically issued warnings about the high-sugar content of Halloween candies, alongside gentle reminders that participating households can hand out plenty of other fun things besides sweets.

Even in a time of rampant public health restrictions, Los Angeles’ crackdown on Halloween seems unnecessarily restrictive. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine a pre-pandemic activity more suited to the requirements of social distancing than trick-or-treating.

The activity occurs outside, where we know the risk of coronavirus transmission is much lower. Everyone is already wearing masks. Curbside pickup, whereby a bowl of candy and maybe a note asking trick-or-treaters to take only one piece, is already a common practice.

On top of that, children, the primary trick-or-treating participants, are at the lowest risk of developing serious COVID-19 symptoms, although they can still spread the disease.

Plenty of people who are at higher risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19 might not want disease vectors showing up at their doorstep. Fortunately, the accepted Halloween tradition of leaving your porch light off if you don’t want to be bothered on that night can help those people too.

Recommending best practices for trick-or-treating seems like a more proportional approach to the transmission risk that Halloween poses. Instead, the county is embracing the most authoritarian possible response to the holiday. Spooky.

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Today’s Deadline for Seeking FDA Approval of Vaping Products Means Small Businesses Have To Pray for Bureaucratic Flexibility

Vaping

When the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) first outlined its plan to regulate vaping equipment and nicotine e-liquids as “tobacco products” in 2014, it estimated that it would receive 25 applications a year. Since the vaping industry includes thousands of manufacturers, ranging from big companies like Juul to mom-and-pop shops that mix the e-liquids they sell, the implication was that FDA regulation would wipe out almost all of them. Today the deadline for submitting applications, which has been moved repeatedly by the FDA and the courts, finally arrived, and the outlook for small businesses, though still daunting and highly uncertain, is not quite as dire as the agency initially suggested.

Under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009, which the FDA is using to regulate nicotine vaping products, the entire industry officially exists only by the agency’s sufferance. The law required FDA approval of all tobacco products that were not marketed prior to February 15, 2007, before the vaping industry emerged in the United States. Once the FDA decided to treat nicotine vapes as tobacco products, it was only the agency’s enforcement discretion (combined with the practical difficulties of eliminating an industry with millions of customers) that allowed them to remain on the market. For companies that managed to meet today’s deadline, that sufferance will now be extended for a year as the FDA considers their applications.

The requirements for a “premarket tobacco application” (PMTA)—a misnomer in this context, since all of these products are already on the market—initially seemed so cumbersome and expensive that only the largest manufacturers would survive. But as Vaping360 reports in a detailed summary of the current regulatory situation, a surprisingly large number of small manufacturers have submitted applications, hoping that the FDA will be patient and flexible enough for them to stay in business.

Under the Tobacco Control Act, the FDA is supposed to approve a PMTA only if it is “appropriate for the protection of public health,” taking into account “the risks and benefits to the population as a whole.” The FDA’s interpretation of that standard, which demands reams of data concerning not only the product’s specific properties but its anticipated impact on smoking and nicotine use, seemed beyond the means of small businesses to satisfy. Juul’s PMTA, for instance, included “detailed scientific data from over 110 studies totaling over 125,000 pages evaluating the product’s impact on both current users of tobacco products and nonusers, including those who are underage.”

But notwithstanding its doom-implying projections six years ago, the FDA has indicated that it will take into account the limited resources of small businesses, along with unanticipated obstacles such as the COVID-19 epidemic and (perhaps) a product testing bottleneck created by the limited number of FDA-accredited laboratories, in accepting and processing applications. Paraphrasing Amanda Wheeler, co-owner of the Arizona e-liquid company Jvapes, Vaping360 says “the FDA has received direction from the White House and HHS to try to accommodate the small vapor companies without abandoning its scientific standards.”

President Donald Trump has acknowledged the harm-reducing potential of e-cigarettes (as does the FDA) and, in the context of the FDA’s restrictions on flavored vaping products, promised to accommodate the interests of vapers and the companies that supply them while trying to reduce underage consumption. Last January, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, whose department includes the FDA, said the agency would “streamline approval” for small businesses.

What might that mean in practice? U.S. District Judge Paul Gramm—who has changed the PMTA deadline twice, moving it up to last May in response to a legal challenge by anti-vaping groups and granting a six-month reprieve in response to the COVID-19 epidemic—says the FDA has the discretion to make case-by-case exceptions for companies struggling to meet its requirements. The FDA has indicated that it may accept incomplete applications on the understanding that companies will fill in the gaps later. The FDA also could make other accommodations—for example, by accepting references to the existing scientific literature on the relative hazards of vaping and smoking rather than demanding new, product-specific research.

Although Grimm limited the grace period for companies that have met the PMTA deadline to one year, it seems quite unlikely that the FDA will be able to process all the applications in that amount of time. “Although we do not know how many applications will be submitted by the September deadline, we do know that there are over 400 million deemed products listed with FDA,” Mitch Zeller, director of the agency’s Center for Tobacco Products, said last month. “Even if applications are submitted for only a portion of those products, the likelihood of FDA reviewing all of these applications during the one-year review period is low, given that this would be an unprecedented number of applications and several orders of magnitude greater than anything the Agency has experienced.”

It is not surprising that many vaping companies have chosen to give up rather than invest time, money, and effort in a process that might (or might not) give them a one-year reprieve and might (or might not) keep them in business longer than that. As Vaping360 notes, if you run a vape shop that sells house-mixed e-liquid or offers a wide range of brands that may no longer be available, you are apt to think twice about signing a new three-year lease in the face of all this regulatory uncertainty. But for the intrepid companies that are trying to navigate the PMTA process, the outlook seems a bit more hopeful than it did a few years ago.

One reason to be hopeful is that the FDA does not have the enforcement capacity to track down unapproved products, which include a vast range of foreign-made devices and parts as well as a bewildering variety of e-liquids, and remove them from the market. People will continue to vape, and manufacturers will continue to supply them, legally or not. If the FDA does not want its regulatory system to become a laughable pretense, it will need to come to terms with that reality.

Consider the issue of flavored e-liquids, which anti-vaping politicians and activists portray as an intolerable threat to the youth of America. If the FDA gives in to their demands and refuses to approve flavored products, which are overwhelmingly preferred by former smokers, it will simply expand a black market over which it has no control. That would not be good for the agency’s reputation or the “public health” it is supposed to be protecting.

While the FDA deserves a lot of blame for creating an opaque, complicated, and intimidating regulatory process, the root of the problem is the standard decreed by Congress. The FDA is required to consider “the population as a whole,” including nonsmokers (especially teenagers) who may start vaping as well as smokers who replace conventional cigarettes with a much less hazardous alternative. That assessment requires predictions and value judgments that invite arbitrary regulation.

It is not enough to demonstrate that the benefits of vaping products outweigh the risks for the millions of Americans who use them instead of smoking. Manufacturers are also supposed to show that the benefits for those consumers outweigh the risks for everyone else, a collectivist calculus that is impossible to perform in any rigorous or objective way. That situation, which Congress created, makes the entire industry subject to the whims of bureaucrats who may or may not prove to be as pragmatic as vapers and the businesses that serve them are hoping.

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Today’s Deadline for Seeking FDA Approval of Vaping Products Means Small Businesses Have To Pray for Bureaucratic Flexibility

Vaping

When the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) first outlined its plan to regulate vaping equipment and nicotine e-liquids as “tobacco products” in 2014, it estimated that it would receive 25 applications a year. Since the vaping industry includes thousands of manufacturers, ranging from big companies like Juul to mom-and-pop shops that mix the e-liquids they sell, the implication was that FDA regulation would wipe out almost all of them. Today the deadline for submitting applications, which has been moved repeatedly by the FDA and the courts, finally arrived, and the outlook for small businesses, though still daunting and highly uncertain, is not quite as dire as the agency initially suggested.

Under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009, which the FDA is using to regulate nicotine vaping products, the entire industry officially exists only by the agency’s sufferance. The law required FDA approval of all tobacco products that were not marketed prior to February 15, 2007, before the vaping industry emerged in the United States. Once the FDA decided to treat nicotine vapes as tobacco products, it was only the agency’s enforcement discretion (combined with the practical difficulties of eliminating an industry with millions of customers) that allowed them to remain on the market. For companies that managed to meet today’s deadline, that sufferance will now be extended for a year as the FDA considers their applications.

The requirements for a “premarket tobacco application” (PMTA)—a misnomer in this context, since all of these products are already on the market—initially seemed so cumbersome and expensive that only the largest manufacturers would survive. But as Vaping360 reports in a detailed summary of the current regulatory situation, a surprisingly large number of small manufacturers have submitted applications, hoping that the FDA will be patient and flexible enough for them to stay in business.

Under the Tobacco Control Act, the FDA is supposed to approve a PMTA only if it is “appropriate for the protection of public health,” taking into account “the risks and benefits to the population as a whole.” The FDA’s interpretation of that standard, which demands reams of data concerning not only the product’s specific properties but its anticipated impact on smoking and nicotine use, seemed beyond the means of small businesses to satisfy. Juul’s PMTA, for instance, included “detailed scientific data from over 110 studies totaling over 125,000 pages evaluating the product’s impact on both current users of tobacco products and nonusers, including those who are underage.”

But notwithstanding its doom-implying projections six years ago, the FDA has indicated that it will take into account the limited resources of small businesses, along with unanticipated obstacles such as the COVID-19 epidemic and (perhaps) a product testing bottleneck created by the limited number of FDA-accredited laboratories, in accepting and processing applications. Paraphrasing Amanda Wheeler, co-owner of the Arizona e-liquid company Jvapes, Vaping360 says “the FDA has received direction from the White House and HHS to try to accommodate the small vapor companies without abandoning its scientific standards.”

President Donald Trump has acknowledged the harm-reducing potential of e-cigarettes (as does the FDA) and, in the context of the FDA’s restrictions on flavored vaping products, promised to accommodate the interests of vapers and the companies that supply them while trying to reduce underage consumption. Last January, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, whose department includes the FDA, said the agency would “streamline approval” for small businesses.

What might that mean in practice? U.S. District Judge Paul Gramm—who has changed the PMTA deadline twice, moving it up to last May in response to a legal challenge by anti-vaping groups and granting a six-month reprieve in response to the COVID-19 epidemic—says the FDA has the discretion to make case-by-case exceptions for companies struggling to meet its requirements. The FDA has indicated that it may accept incomplete applications on the understanding that companies will fill in the gaps later. The FDA also could make other accommodations—for example, by accepting references to the existing scientific literature on the relative hazards of vaping and smoking rather than demanding new, product-specific research.

Although Grimm limited the grace period for companies that have met the PMTA deadline to one year, it seems quite unlikely that the FDA will be able to process all the applications in that amount of time. “Although we do not know how many applications will be submitted by the September deadline, we do know that there are over 400 million deemed products listed with FDA,” Mitch Zeller, director of the agency’s Center for Tobacco Products, said last month. “Even if applications are submitted for only a portion of those products, the likelihood of FDA reviewing all of these applications during the one-year review period is low, given that this would be an unprecedented number of applications and several orders of magnitude greater than anything the Agency has experienced.”

It is not surprising that many vaping companies have chosen to give up rather than invest time, money, and effort in a process that might (or might not) give them a one-year reprieve and might (or might not) keep them in business longer than that. As Vaping360 notes, if you run a vape shop that sells house-mixed e-liquid or offers a wide range of brands that may no longer be available, you are apt to think twice about signing a new three-year lease in the face of all this regulatory uncertainty. But for the intrepid companies that are trying to navigate the PMTA process, the outlook seems a bit more hopeful than it did a few years ago.

One reason to be hopeful is that the FDA does not have the enforcement capacity to track down unapproved products, which include a vast range of foreign-made devices and parts as well as a bewildering variety of e-liquids, and remove them from the market. People will continue to vape, and manufacturers will continue to supply them, legally or not. If the FDA does not want its regulatory system to become a laughable pretense, it will need to come to terms with that reality.

Consider the issue of flavored e-liquids, which anti-vaping politicians and activists portray as an intolerable threat to the youth of America. If the FDA gives in to their demands and refuses to approve flavored products, which are overwhelmingly preferred by former smokers, it will simply expand a black market over which it has no control. That would not be good for the agency’s reputation or the “public health” it is supposed to be protecting.

While the FDA deserves a lot of blame for creating an opaque, complicated, and intimidating regulatory process, the root of the problem is the standard decreed by Congress. The FDA is required to consider “the population as a whole,” including nonsmokers (especially teenagers) who may start vaping as well as smokers who replace conventional cigarettes with a much less hazardous alternative. That assessment requires predictions and value judgments that invite arbitrary regulation.

It is not enough to demonstrate that the benefits of vaping products outweigh the risks for the millions of Americans who use them instead of smoking. Manufacturers are also supposed to show that the benefits for those consumers outweigh the risks for everyone else, a collectivist calculus that is impossible to perform in any rigorous or objective way. That situation, which Congress created, makes the entire industry subject to the whims of bureaucrats who may or may not prove to be as pragmatic as vapers and the businesses that serve them are hoping.

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