“The Max Brand Is Damaged”: Key Boeing Client Joins Trump In Demanding Renaming Of 737 Max

“The Max Brand Is Damaged”: Key Boeing Client Joins Trump In Demanding Renaming Of 737 Max

Back in December, we tweeted “Boeing 737 MAX renamed to Boeing 420; flight certificate secured,” while “Boeing 420” might not be the new name — there are new calls from a major aircraft leasing company for Boeing to drop the name “MAX.” 

President Trump first suggested Boeing rebrand MAX after a faulty flight control system led to two deadly crashes, killing 346 people. The planes have been grounded since March 2019. 

On Monday, Air Lease demanded Boeing drop the “damaged” label of its MAX brand to avoid undermining the value of its 150 MAX jets, reported Reuters

“We’ve asked Boeing to get rid of that word MAX. I think that word MAX should go down in the history books as a bad name for an aircraft,” Steven Udvar-Hazy told the Airline Economics aviation finance conference in Dublin. “The MAX brand is damaged, and there is really no reason for it.”

Hazy warned even with a name change – it’s not clear if customers would forget about the two fatal crashes.

The name “MAX” has been tarnished with the blood of 346 lives. Press from around the world covered the disaster and any updates via Boeing’s progress in attempting to unground the planes. MAX could develop the same negative vibes as the name “Hindenburg.” Even after 80 years, Hindenburg is widely recognized as an air disaster that killed lots of people. There’s also a technical indicator called the “Hindenburg Omen” – designed to spot stock market tops. 

With the MAX brand severely damaged, a recent report via BofA Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace noted that there are increasing concerns about whether the MAX will return to service. 

BofA anticipates the MAX could return to service by May 2020, but notes “the path to normalization for the 737 MAX may take longer than expected.” 

“For the production rate to ramp-up back to 52 per month, Boeing will still need to get the 387 737 MAX grounded aircraft that were already delivered to airlines to get back in the air and “depickle” and deliver the ~400 undelivered, parked 737 MAX aircraft. Additionally, Boeing will need to synchronize its entire supply chain back to harmony. Getting back to 57 per month may be unlikely.” 

BofA notes, “the key bottlenecks for aircraft delivery” has been Boeing’s ability to issue airworthiness certificates has been stripped and is now up to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This could further delay the jets returning to the skies. 

“Before the 737 MAX grounding, Boeing had expected to ramp up to 57 per month by 2H19. Boeing ability to issue airworthiness certificates and export certificates of airworthiness One of the key bottlenecks for aircraft delivery is that Boeing is no longer allowed to issue airworthiness certificates and export certificates of airworthiness for 737 MAX aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will be the sole issuer of these certificates.”

Boeing peaked at 69 MAX deliveries in December 2018. Boeing delivered 580 737 aircraft in 2018, which averages about 48 aircraft per month. Before the grounding and now production halt, Boeing delivered 34 737s in January 2019, 32 in February 2019, and 23 in March 2019.

 

And with the production of the MAX halted and no clear timetable of when the planes could return to the skies – the peak commercial jet bubble has started to unravel. This will could trigger a deepening of the U.S. manufacturing recession in 1H20. 

As for the branding, President Trump was right, Boeing must drop MAX and rebrand the troubled planes. 

 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 13:35

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Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Via S&P Global Platts Insight blog,

This week’s pick of energy and commodity market trends kicks off with EU biofuels demand prospects and a window of opportunity for Australian crude oil grades. US and European gas market dynamics and Brazilian corn prices are also in the sights of S&P Global Platts news editors this week.

1. Renewables goals boost global biofuels demand

What’s happening? In 2020, each EU member country will need to meet specific national renewable energy targets set by the European Commission. One route is to blend more biofuels into road fuels, with more countries adopting E10 gasoline, which contains up to 10% ethanol, twice as much as the current E5 standard. In 2019, the Netherlands became the latest European country to introduce E10 gasoline, following Finland, Belgium, France and Germany.

What’s next? In France, E10 sales have now overtaken E5 deliveries. Growth of the E10 ethanol blend have been hindered in Germany by consumer belief that it could harm car performance. Meanwhile, the UK has yet to introduce E10 despite a very ambitious clean energy target, because most fuel stations do not have enough tanks to offer both E5 and E10 simultaneously. The US adopted tier 3 standards on 1 Jan 2020, which means less sulfur in the fuel and lower exhaust emissions of nitrogen oxides. India will move to BS VI specifications which limit the sulfur levels for road fuels to a maximum 10ppm from April 2020. China is implementing Euro 6 equivalent fuel standards and favoring higher levels of ethanol and biodiesel in the blend. The move has been phased in from 2019 and should be completed country-wide by 2022.

2. Aussie crude grades command high premium in IMO 2020 setting

What’s happening? Australian heavy sweet crudes including Pyrenees and Van Gogh are widely seen as ideal for blending into low sulfur marine fuels due to the grades’ rich fuel oil yield, very low sulfur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point, industry and Asian refinery sources have told Platts. With demand for low sulfur fuel oil outpacing supply in Singapore, the world’s biggest bunkering hub, the price of Marine Fuel 0.5% has spiked by more than 185% month on month, Platts data showed.

What’s next? Australia looks set to reap the benefits of the International Maritime Organization’s global sulfur cap as the country’s heavy sweet crude oil is widely considered one of the best feedstocks for making IMO-compliant marine fuels – and many Asian refiners are willing to pay lofty spot premiums for it. Australian oil and gas producer Santos recently sold a 550,000-barrel cargo of Pyrenees crude for loading over March 4-8 to a Japanese buyer at a premium of around $31/b to Platts Dated Brent crude assessments on an FOB basis, essentially making the Australian oil the most expensive grade in the world. Asian refiners will likely compete for more Australian heavy sweet crude oil, with several cargoes of Van Gogh crude for loading in March up for grabs this week in the regional spot market.

3. German offshore wind stepping up to energy transition plate

Click to enlarge

What’s happening?  German offshore wind generation has doubled since 2016, with turbines in the North Sea generating as much electricity last year as two large nuclear power reactors running at baseload. Offshore turbines are playing an increasingly material role in wind’s overall ascendancy to the Number One spot in Germany’s generation mix. With over 7 GW installed in German waters, project commissioning in the North Sea is set to take a breather until 2022, with the focus switching to Baltic Sea projects.

What’s next?  More is being asked of German offshore wind in the longer term. Berlin has upped its 2030 target by 5 GW to 20 GW, to help fill the gap left by nuclear and coal closures. The target is challenging because of grid constraints and reduced offshore acreage availability. One way to counter the grid constraint issue could be to produce green hydrogen at sea or coast. The concept is early-stage but the world’s leading offshore wind developer, Orsted, has already bid a joint offshore wind/green hydrogen project into a Dutch auction and is determined to pursue the idea.

4. Specter of negative gas prices looms over Permian Basin…

What’s happening? Balance-2020 forwards gas prices at the West Texas Waha hub tumbled to a record low in mid-January as the market outlook for available pipeline capacity exiting the Permian Basin continues to deteriorate. At market close on January 15, the forward curve dipped to its lowest on record at just 49 cents/MMBtu. Shoulder season prices for this year have faced even more downward pressure with the April contract falling to just 7 cents/MMBtu.

What’s next? As Permian output continues to build, hitting a record high at 12.4 Bcf/d recently and averaging 11.5 Bcf/d over the past month, market jitters over midstream constraints have reemerged. Concerns about the possible return of negative prices this year were exacerbated following Kinder Morgan’s third-quarter earnings call in October when executives announced a three-month delay to startup of the company’s 2.1 Bcf/d Permian Highway Pipeline. The pipeline was originally scheduled to enter service in late 2020 but has since been delayed to Q1 2021.

5. …while EU’s huge gas overhang limits Ukraine transit

What’s happening? Natural gas stocks across the EU are currently at around 77 Bcm – some 18 Bcm above the levels at the same time last year – helping to keep a lid on prices already pressured by warm weather and weak demand. To put that surplus into context, the additional stocks represent only a little less than the total pipeline exports from Algeria – considered a key European gas supplier – to Europe in 2019. Stocks across Europe were built up to record highs by the end of 2019 on fears that Russian gas transit via Ukraine to Europe could be disrupted.

What’s next? Withdrawals across the EU have stepped up since the start of 2020 to some 450 million cu m/d as Russian deliveries slumped despite the transit deal. Gazprom itself was aiming to build up more than 11 Bcm in storage in Europe and may be withdrawing that gas rather than flowing via Ukraine to avoid keeping gas in storage any longer than necessary.

6. Ethanol, meat industry keep Brazil corn prices supported

What’s happening? Corn prices in Brazil, the world’s largest corn exporter in 2019, have risen considerably over the last few months. Mato Grosso, the largest grain-producing state in the country, saw a sharp price increase because of record exports in 2019 and higher consumption by the ethanol industry. The feed industry in southern states also drove up prices as they paid a higher premium for corn to secure food supply for pork and poultry farms.

What’s next? Domestic corn prices in Brazil are seen firm as meat exports from the country are expected to rise in 2020 on higher demand from Asia. Higher prices for corn in Brazil, especially in southern states, are likely to force the animal protein industry to buy more corn from neighboring countries. Moreover, higher local corn prices could also reduce the availability of the grain for exports.

7. Renewables focus could expand reach of US cap-and-trade

What happening? The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative issued the auction notice for the 47th quarterly carbon dioxide allowance auction that will take place March 11. There will be 16,208,347 CO2 allowances for sale, 24% more than the previous auction, with a minimum reserve price of $2.32/st. Plants in RGGI states must purchase an allowance for each ton of CO2 that they emit. Applications must be submitted by January 29.

What’s next? As the focus on renewables intensifies in the US and the RGGI market matures, more states are looking to join the regional cap-and-trade program. RGGI states currently include Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. New Jersey rejoined January 1 after an eight-year hiatus. Other states that could join RGGI include Virginia, whose joining has been postponed, and Pennsylvania, whose governor issued an executive order in October instructing the state Department of Environmental Protection to join RGGI.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 13:10

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White House Legal Team Slams “Frivolous”, “Dangerous” Impeachment Charade; Seeks “Speedy Acquittal”

White House Legal Team Slams “Frivolous”, “Dangerous” Impeachment Charade; Seeks “Speedy Acquittal”

President Trump’s legal team filed a lengthy legal brief on Monday in which they have asked for a ‘speedy acquittal’ from the Senate, as they begin impeachment proceedings on two articles advanced by the House after a four-week delay. 

Trump’s legal team notes that the impeachment articles fail to cite any violation of the law, and the charge that Trump obstructed Congress was a “frivolous and dangerous” attempt to alter the separation of powers outlined by the framers in the Constitution, according to CNN.

The briefing comes one day after Trump’s legal team filed a shorter document on Saturday which laid out their arguments against impeachment – calling it “constitutionally invalid” and an attack on Americans.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers plan to dismiss the largely party-line impeachment by the House as a “brazenly political act” following a “rigged process” that should be repudiated by the Senate, according to a person working with his legal team, who spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of the submission of the trial brief. They will argue that neither of the articles of impeachment against Mr. Trump are valid because they do not state a violation of the law and they would in effect try to punish the president for foreign policy decisions and efforts to preserve executive prerogatives. –NYT

Trump’s attorneys don’t deny that he asked Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden and other matters related to the 2016 US election – however they argue that the President has the right to conduct international relations between countries as he sees fit, and that he had valid grounds for raising the aforementioned issues. 

The briefing rejects the notion that Trump abused his power, calling it a “novel theory” which was a “newly invented” offense which would set a dangerous precedent for the ability of future presidents to conduct legitimate foreign policy.

According to the filing, the “articles of impeachment as a matter of law are deficient on their face.”

Trump, meanwhile, weighed in from Florida – arguing over Twitter that he wasn’t being treated fairly, while dismissing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)’s call for ‘fairness.’

Read the briefing below:


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 12:44

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“Fraudulent Lawsuits and Illegal Hacks to Silence Online Consumer Complaints”

Some of it may be familiar to our readers (see here for my brief on the “fraudulent lawsuits” side of the analysis), but there’s a new item, too:

[Aaron] Minc advertises himself as an internet defamation attorney, capable of “removing damaging content from the internet.”

He can be seen in an advertisement with a man named Pierre Zarokian, who runs a reputation management company called Submit Express. “We’ve helped many companies get rid of Ripoff Report, and we’ve been successful in doing this,” Zarokian says in an online video. In 2018, the FBI arrested Zarokian and charged him with felony conspiracy after he was caught paying an international hacker in [Cyprus] to remove Ripoff Report complaints for his clients.

A FBI search warrant obtained by FOX 11 reveals chat logs between Zarokian and the hacker, in which Zarokian provides Ripoff Report links for the hacker to remove.Federal documents reveal that hacker used brute force methods to get into Ripoff Report’s system and remove over 100 complaints in total…..

Zarokian [has] pleaded guilty to his felony charges. In a sworn statement he signed with the feds, Zarokian admitted to paying the hacker $1,000 per complaint removal, then charging his client a removal fee of between $1,000 and $5,000.

Check out the whole story, either in text or on video (at link). Here’s an excerpt from the Zarokian plea agreement:

I, Pierre Zarokian, worked with Joshua Polloso Epifaniou during October 2016 through May 2017 to obtain unauthorized access to Ripoff Report (ROR)’s database and delete information. ROR is a company based in Phoenix, Arizona, that hosts a website where customers can post anonymous complaints about people and businesses. I operated a search engine marketing company in California that offered “reputation management services/ including the removal of negative customer complaints from ROR. In Octooer 2016 Epifaniou—a computer hacker living in Cyprus—gained unauthorized access to ROR computer servers in Phoemx, Anzona, and then contacted me. In furtherance of the conspiracy, and to achieve the object of the conspiracy, Epifaniou and I committed an overt act—namely that I paid him $1000 per complaint removal and then charged my clients a fee for removal between $1000 to $5000. I knew that Epifaniou was deleting the records through unauthorized access to the ROR computer servers, and I acknowledge that the ROR computer servers were used in and affected interstate commerce.

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“Fraudulent Lawsuits and Illegal Hacks to Silence Online Consumer Complaints”

Some of it may be familiar to our readers (see here for my brief on the “fraudulent lawsuits” side of the analysis), but there’s a new item, too:

[Aaron] Minc advertises himself as an internet defamation attorney, capable of “removing damaging content from the internet.”

He can be seen in an advertisement with a man named Pierre Zarokian, who runs a reputation management company called Submit Express. “We’ve helped many companies get rid of Ripoff Report, and we’ve been successful in doing this,” Zarokian says in an online video. In 2018, the FBI arrested Zarokian and charged him with felony conspiracy after he was caught paying an international hacker in [Cyprus] to remove Ripoff Report complaints for his clients.

A FBI search warrant obtained by FOX 11 reveals chat logs between Zarokian and the hacker, in which Zarokian provides Ripoff Report links for the hacker to remove.Federal documents reveal that hacker used brute force methods to get into Ripoff Report’s system and remove over 100 complaints in total…..

Zarokian [has] pleaded guilty to his felony charges. In a sworn statement he signed with the feds, Zarokian admitted to paying the hacker $1,000 per complaint removal, then charging his client a removal fee of between $1,000 and $5,000.

Check out the whole story, either in text or on video (at link). Here’s an excerpt from the Zarokian plea agreement:

I, Pierre Zarokian, worked with Joshua Polloso Epifaniou during October 2016 through May 2017 to obtain unauthorized access to Ripoff Report (ROR)’s database and delete information. ROR is a company based in Phoenix, Arizona, that hosts a website where customers can post anonymous complaints about people and businesses. I operated a search engine marketing company in California that offered “reputation management services/ including the removal of negative customer complaints from ROR. In Octooer 2016 Epifaniou—a computer hacker living in Cyprus—gained unauthorized access to ROR computer servers in Phoemx, Anzona, and then contacted me. In furtherance of the conspiracy, and to achieve the object of the conspiracy, Epifaniou and I committed an overt act—namely that I paid him $1000 per complaint removal and then charged my clients a fee for removal between $1000 to $5000. I knew that Epifaniou was deleting the records through unauthorized access to the ROR computer servers, and I acknowledge that the ROR computer servers were used in and affected interstate commerce.

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The Biggest Stock Market “Melt Up” In US History Has Pushed Prices To The Most Overvalued Ever

The Biggest Stock Market “Melt Up” In US History Has Pushed Prices To The Most Overvalued Ever

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Over the past several months, we have witnessed one of the greatest stock market rallies in American history. The S&P 500 has gone 70 days in a row without a 1 percent loss, and most weeks we have seen one daily surge after another. If stock prices were exploding because the underlying U.S. economy was performing extremely well, we would have reason to celebrate. Unfortunately, that is not the case at all. In fact, last week I shared 12 signs that the economy is actually slowing down substantially. Instead, this stock market “melt up” is being largely fueled by reckless intervention by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s balance sheet has been ballooning once again, and investors know that stock prices tend to go up significantly when that is happening. So right now Wall Street is in the midst of a raucous party, and everything will be wonderful as long as stock prices continue to move in the right direction.

Unfortunately, no stock market rally lasts forever, and a day of reckoning is coming. At this point, stock prices have become so absurd that even the New York Times is saying that we should “worry” about what is ahead.

We also witnessed dramatic stock market “melt ups” prior to the stock market crash of 1929, prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble, and prior to the financial crisis of 2008.

If you are not familiar with the term “melt up”, here is a pretty good definition from Investopedia

A melt up is a dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains that a melt up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. Melt ups often precede melt downs.

That definition accurately describes what we are witnessing on Wall Street right now. There has been so much euphoria, and of course many of the wild-eyed optimists seem to think that it can last indefinitely.

But how much higher can stock prices possibly go? After all, they are already the most overvalued that they have ever been in all of U.S. history.

A very simple way to judge whether stock prices are overvalued or undervalued is to look at the price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole. During the best of times, it should be somewhere between 1.0 and 1.5, but thanks to the absurd rally that Wall Street has been enjoying the price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 has now been pushed above 2.4. If you would like to see what this looks like for yourself, just check out this chart from Zero Hedge.

Stock prices should have never, ever gotten to this point without sufficient underlying sales to justify such high valuations. If the S&P 500 were to fall 50 percent from the current level, that would put us at a point that is relatively “normal” for good economic times.

But of course our financial markets would not be able to handle a 50 percent decline in stock prices because the system is so highly leveraged. It would be a disaster unlike anything we have seen before, and so the Federal Reserve feels as though there is no other alternative other than to continue to pump up this absolutely absurd bubble.

Another very simple indicator that shows that stocks are now more overvalued than ever before is “the Buffett Indicator”. As Harry Dent has pointed out, the ratio of total market capitalization to U.S. GDP has never been higher than it is currently. You can see this for yourself by looking at this chart. The stock market would have to fall by a third just to get back to the ridiculous level we witnessed just prior to the financial crisis of 2008. We truly are in unprecedented territory, and every other stock market bubble of this nature in our entire history has ended very, very badly.

If you want to blame someone for getting us into such a precarious position, you should blame the Federal Reserve. And at this point, even Fed officials are acknowledging what is going on. For example, just check out what Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan recently said

It was at the very least, a little refreshing to hear Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan openly talked about this in an interview Wednesday. Although he did couch it in terms that implied it was a matter of some concern to him. But, of course, he went on to say, “we’ve done what we need to do up until now.”

“My own view is it’s having some effect on risk assets,” Kaplan said. “It’s a derivative of QE when we buy bills and we inject more liquidity; it affects risk assets. This is why I say growth in the balance sheet is not free. There is a cost to it.”

The Fed is desperately trying to keep control of interest rates, but in the process they are creating ideal conditions for a stock market crash.

As 2019 rolled to an end, even Wolf Richter admitted that “there has never been a better setup” for a major market meltdown…

In my decades of looking at the stock market, there has never been a better setup. Exuberance is pandemic and sky-high. And even after today’s dip, the S&P 500 is up nearly 29% for the year, and the Nasdaq 35%, despite lackluster growth in the global economy, where many of the S&P 500 companies are getting the majority of their revenues.

Mega-weight in the indices, Apple, is a good example: shares soared 84% in the year, though its revenues ticked up only 2%. This is not a growth story. This is an exuberance story where nothing that happens in reality – such as lacking revenue growth – matters, as we’re now told by enthusiastic crowds everywhere.

Meanwhile, the real economy has just continued to deteriorate.

While stock prices were soaring in December, U.S. freight volume was actually plummeting

Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 7.9% in December 2019 compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 13th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest year-over-year decline since November 2009, during the Financial Crisis

As I have warned so many times, stock prices have become completely divorced from economic reality, and this is setting us up for a major financial crisis.

But for the moment, the party continues to roll on and the wild-eyes optimists are telling us that this is just the beginning of a golden new age of prosperity.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 12:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Gk7gCF Tyler Durden

Alex Jones Storms Richmond Rally In ‘Battle Tank’

Alex Jones Storms Richmond Rally In ‘Battle Tank’

Always the showman, InfoWars founder Alex Jones, the reactionary scourge of liberal Austin, Texas, showed up to Monday’s “Lobby Day” anti-gun control rally in Richmond in a battle tank, cruising the streets near the rally with a bullhorn, helping to kick the overall energy level up a few notches.

Some complained that Jones’s ‘tank’ wasn’t really a tank, but a souped-up truck. Though that kind of misses the point.

Meanwhile, the crowds spouted off some inventive chants targeting “racist Ralph” Northam, who infamously clung to his office despite an embarrassing scandal involving photos of him wearing black face in an old med school yearbook.

One activist even debuted a petition to recall Northam, the principal player in the Virginia Democrats’ gun control push.

Jones has been laying low lately, or at least it seems that way now that Infowars has been banned from practically ever mainstream social media platform, including YouTube. Recently, the mainstream media and the American justice system – which sided against him in a case filed by parents of Sandy Hook shooting victims – seem to have conspired to take him down.

Yet here he is, driving a ‘tank’ down Richmond’s streets, ensuring that he will be impossible to ignore.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 11:55

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Virginia Gov. Northam Smears Gun Control Opponents to Frighten His Base

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is misusing a regularly scheduled political rally to frighten his base and gin up support for his troubled administration. Flinging scare-mongering language, the Democratic governor has portrayed a grassroots lobbying effort against gun restrictions as a potential source of “violent extremism” and declared a state of emergency.

It’s a cheap attempt to build support by delegitimizing opposition to his policies. On the way to declaring a state of emergency, Northam breathlessly warned:

Credible intelligence gathered by Virginia’s law enforcement agencies indicates that tens of thousands of advocates plan to converge on Capitol Square for events culminating on January 20, 2020. Available information suggests that a substantial number of these demonstrators are expected to come from outside the Commonwealth, may be armed, and have as their purpose not peaceful assembly but violence, rioting, and insurrection.

The “events culminating on January 20, 2020” consist of the Virginia Civil Defense League’s (VCDL) annual lobby day, in which it gathers at Capitol Square, like many other organizations (the Virginia Nurses Association has four lobby days planned for the end of January and beginning of February) do. In the case, the organization is advocating for self-defense rights and against restrictions on the same.

Images of the VCDL’s peaceful 2017 rally are on display at the organization’s website. This is a normal, regularly scheduled gathering intended to influence public policy.

But the governor warns that this year’s event features “white nationalist rhetoric and plans by out-of-state militia groups to attend.” He links the gathering to “events that occurred in Charlottesville,” as if a gathering by opponents of his policies must inevitably descend into violence launched by fringe-dwellers.

Will fringe racists and right-wing radicals attend today’s rally? Almost certainly. Back when anti-war protests were a thing (remember them?) an even more predictable feature than Susan Sarandon on the stage were clusters of far-left types wandering through the crowd trying to convince attendees that a desire for peace implies a workers’ revolution and liquidating the bourgeoisie. Radicals frequently court recruits by piggybacking their causes on mainstream ones. In and of itself, that doesn’t reflect on the mainstream cause.

In fact, one of the groups joining the rally is Antifascists of the Seven Hills, an anti-capitalist group which opposes gun restrictions because “gun control serves to weaken our defense positions.” They don’t want to leave any racist presence at the rally unopposed by other pro-gun voices.

“In considering how to deter their recruitment and nullify their ability to harm folks lobbying or otherwise going about their business, we recognized that the VCDL was drawing lines in the sand on optics, and trying to distance themselves from other issues and symbols like the Confederate battle flag,” the group notes on its Facebook page.

Whatever your opinion of antifa (I’ve been a critic), it’s clear that this isn’t the unalloyed white nationalist gathering that Northam describes.

No, whether you agree or disagree with it, the rally’s message is certainly mainstream. Even as VCDL warns that “proposed bills will turn many semi-automatic firearm owners into felons,” 86 of Virginia’s 95 counties had passed measures declaring themselves sanctuaries for self-defense rights, as of the end of December.

“They suggest that the counties might not enforce new state laws limiting gun rights,” the Wall Street Journal reports of the sanctuary jurisdictions.

To a large extent, that’s a reflection of the state’s version of the national urban-rural divide, which has too many politicians favoring one side while vilifying and punishing the other. In Virginia, support for Northam and the Democratic legislative majority is concentrated in the state’s urban crescent, while the sanctuary counties are in rural and exurban areas that even a Democratic county chairman accused his party of treating with “malevolent neglect.”

With an immediate post-election victory push for gun restrictions, state Democrats play to the prejudices of their urban-to-suburban base with legislation that sticks it to the rural areas where such laws are largely unpopular.

Playing the same game a year after news reports that, years ago, he dressed in blackface, Northam seeks revived credibility among urban, progressive voters by pushing his party’s gun control proposals. And then he doubles down by smearing his opponents as bent on “violence, rioting, and insurrection.”

But what about that “credible intelligence” Northam claims was gathered by law enforcement agencies? Maybe it exists, but governments have a long history of feeding the public’s fears to delegitimize opponents and justify extraordinary actions.

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary,” H. L. Mencken mused decades ago.

“It had become clear, to me at least, that the repeated evocations of terror by the political class were not a response to any specific threat or concern but a cynical attempt to turn terror into a permanent danger that required permanent vigilance enforced by unquestionable authority,” Edward Snowden wrote in 2019’s Permanent Record of his growing awareness of what lay behind the surveillance state.

Northam’s alleged “credible intelligence” that this year’s iteration of an annual political gathering is poised to erupt in an orgy of racism and violence gives him fodder for proclaiming a state of emergency over a normal expression of political dissent. In doing so, Northam makes it clear that he represents only his supporters, that he considers opponents’ political views beyond the pale, and that he’s prepared to use extraordinary means in order to get his way.

Northam isn’t the only offender in this regard. Treating opponents as abnormal, subject to special sanction, and even as enemies of the people is an increasingly popular tactic for America’s political class. It’s also incredibly dangerous for the health of the political system.

People who are treated by government officials as enemies to be crushed would be foolish to submit to the authority of those officials. To do so is to bare their throats to a predator. If politicians are going to smear their opponents as illegitimate, they should be prepared to receive the same treatment in return.

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Trump Jr.: “Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America”

Trump Jr.: “Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

During an interview with Fox News Sunday, Donald Trump Jr. slammed Democrats and the media when discussing the ongoing impeachment saga, declaring that they “hate Trump more than they love America”.

President Trump’s son told Sunday Morning Futures “They will double down. Any opportunity to hurt Trump, and that is the reality.”

You can’t dispute the numbers. You can’t dispute all-time low unemployment for every group in this country, every demographic.” Trump Jr. continued.

He further charged that Democrats do not want to play fair when it comes to witnesses during the impeachment show trial.

“Hearing from everyone is totally fair, that’s not what we’ve seen so far while Democrats have controlled the process, it has not been fair in any way, shape or form.” Trump said.

Trump Jr. also slammed moderate Republicans for being willing to allow Democrats to call witnesses, but moving to block the president from doing the same.

“The, let’s call it weaker Republicans… if some of those guys don’t want to hear from the witnesses we’d want to hear from but will hear from the others, I want to know about it, because they don’t deserve to be in office.” he stated.

“I sort of like the Rand Paul model, make them vote on it.” Trump added, referring to the Kentucky Senator’s support for a vote to determine whether the President’s team will have the ability to call witnesses following opening arguments.

The move would pave the way for calling to the stand Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden and the so called ‘anonymous whistle-blower’.

The Senate will formally commence its trial procedures in votes this week.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 11:30

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Google v. Oracle

The briefs have started to come in [see here], and the Supreme Court will soon hear oral argument (date TBD), in the Google v. Oracle** case.

**Connoisseurs of case captions will appreciate the nice “two-heavyweights-going-mano a mano,” “Ali v. Frazier” quality of this one; no et als, no d/b/as, no on behalf ofs … just the two titans facing off. It has some of the flavor of my favorite captions of all, cases (one or two of which the Court usually hears every year) involving competing State boundary claims or water rights or some-such, whose captions always sound like college football or basketball games: Nebraska v. Oklahoma, Michigan v. Wisconsin, etc.

It is, perhaps, the most important copyright case the Court has heard in over a decade, and interest in the case runs high, to put it mildly. Twenty-six amicus briefs supporting Google’s position, submitted by an exceptionally broad range of individuals, commercial entities, and non-profits—from Microsoft and IBM to Mozilla and Reddit and the Internet Society to the National Association for the Blind and the American Antitrust Association to a raft of law professors and computer scientists—were filed last week (plus two in support of neither party).*** That already puts the case at the high end of the distribution of the number of amicus briefs submitted per case (the average, in the Supreme Court, is around 10 or 11; see here), and we still have yet to hear from amici on Oracle’s side, who have until Feb. 19th to file their own briefs.

***Jonathan Band has provided a helpful summary of these briefs here.  [Disclosure: Band represents one of the amici (the Computer and Communications Industry Association), and I have signed on to one of the law professors’ briefs supporting Google’s position in the case.]

The case involves a claim by Oracle that Google, in developing its Android operating system, infringed Oracle’s copyright in the Java programming platform. A little technical background is indispensable for understanding Oracle’s claim and why it is so important.

A program written in the Java language contains two different kinds of code: “declaring code” and “implementing code.” Declaring code (sometimes called a Java “declaration”) invokes (or “calls”) other programs from within a pre-existing library of Java programs, in order to accomplish some basic task—finding the larger of two integers, say, or summing a string of figures. The pre-written programs that are “called” from the library constitute the “implementation code.”

Oracle gives this example in one of its briefs:

The URLConnection program, for example, has the following declaring code:

public URLConnection openConnection()

    throws java.io.IOException

An app programmer who wanted to connect her application to BankofAmerica.com without writing her own code can call on Oracle’s pre-written code by typing:

new URL(‘https://ift.tt/2NFx0gE Connection()

Then, when the program runs, the Java platform recognizes the declaring code and invokes the corresponding “implementing code” to connect to www.BankofAmerica.com.

The availability of a library of pre-written implementation code for thousands of tasks—pre-written and pre-tested subroutines, in effect—is one of the things that has made Java such a popular language in which to code applications, enabling Java programmers to accomplish a wide variety of tasks without having to re-invent the wheel and devise their own implementing code for these basic functions from scratch.

Oracle’s library of implementation code programs (sometimes also denoted as “methods”) contains over 30,000 such programs, containing many millions of lines of code, and is one of its most valuable IP assets. Oracle owns the copyright in these programs—nobody disputes that—and it actively issues licenses for their use. Anyone may obtain a royalty-free “open source” license to this entire collection of Java subroutines. Because open source licenses require users to make any alterations they make to the pre-existing code available to the public, many commercial entites are unwilling to enter into them, and Oracle accommodates them by also issuing commercial royalty-bearing licenses, at a negotiated price.

When Google began work on the Android operating system in the mid-2000s, it entered into negotiations with Oracle to obtain a commercial license for this implementing code—Oracle’s entire “Java Platform”—but those negotiations broke down. Instead of abandoning its decision to use the Java language for the Android operating system, Google chose to have its own engineers re-write those implementing programs (or, in some cases, to acquire code from third-party sources). [This new, non-Oracle implementing code, incidentally, makes up around 97% of the code for the Android operating system.]

So that’s the first important thing to understand about this case: Oracle has no copyright claim—and it has asserted no copyright claim—based on its immense and valuable collection of implementation programs, because Google did not end up copying any of that code.

What, then, is Oracle’s claim based upon?  Google did indeed copy something: it copied Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing these 30,000+ implementation programs. A little more technical background: Oracle organizes its collection of implementation programs/methods into a hierarchy consisting of about 3,000 “classes” of code performing different but related functions, which are then grouped together into around 150 different “packages” (aka “Application Program Interfaces,” or “APIs”) of related higher-level functions. It is, as Google describes it in its opening brief [here], the equivalent of an ordinary filing system: each package is a file cabinet, each class is a drawer within one of the cabinets, and each individual program containing a “method” is a folder within the drawer within the cabinet.

Google copied this hierarchical system for organizing Java methods because the corresponding declarations/calls must replicate this hierarchical system precisely if the calls are to operate correctly and find the proper “method” to run. For instance, “max” is a method/implementation program that finds the larger of two integers; a Java program seeking to invoke and run the “max” program would have a declaration that looks like this:  java.lang.Math.max(5, 10). This indicates that the code for “max” is to be found within the Math “class” within the java.lang “package.”

The structure and text of the declarations, in other words, are tightly constrained by the hierarchical structure of the methods, classes, and packages; indeed, they are entirely determined by that hierarchy. As the district court put it, “the rules of Java dictate the precise form of certain necessary lines of code called declarations, whose precise and necessary form explains why Android and Java must be identical when it comes to those particular lines of [declaring] code.”

And Java programmers have already learned thousands upon thousands of declarations that are based on the Oracle organizing scheme. That is, in fact, a major component of what a Java programmer learns in order to become a Java programmer. Google’s use of Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing the library of methods meant that Android programmers would be able to use the declarations with which they were already intimately familiar, without requiring those programmers to learn thousands of new declarations/calls to perform common tasks.

Thus, within the Android operating system, the declaration described above—java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)—does what it always does in a Java program: it finds the larger of two integers by running an implementation program (called “max”) that is located in the class Math in the java.lang package.

As Google puts it in its opening brief:

Google understood that developers would want to use their existing Java language skills to create Android applications, including their knowledge of familiar declarations and shorthand commands to trigger common operations. For those commands to work on the Android platform, Google had to replicate the syntax and structure of the Java API declarations exactly; any change to those declarations would have prevented developers from reusing the same commands, thereby forcing them to learn new commands for each routine task. Google accordingly used the same declarations for certain methods in 37 Java API libraries that were determined by Google to be “key to mobile devices.” For every one of those methods, however, Google wrote its own implementing code, tailoring the code to accommodate the unique challenges of the smartphone environment.

That’s the heart of this dispute: whether copying the hierarchical structure of the library of implementation programs—not the implementation code in those programs, but the system by which those programs are organized—and the declarations that reflect that hierarchical structure (e.g., java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)) infringe Oracle’s copyright in that structure and those declarations.

Google argues that it does not. I agree, and so did the district court, which held, correctly, that the structure of the libraries, and the corresponding text of the declarations which reflect that structure, are not protected by copyright at all. Without diving too deep into the copyright weeds, the short version of the court’s reasoning is simple and straightforward. The Copyright Act, a hopeless muddle about many things, is transparently clear on point: copyright protection is not available for systems or processes or organizing methods or the like. Section 102(b) says this explicitly, and reads in full:

In no case does copyright protection for an original work of authorship extend to any idea, procedure, process, system, method of operation, concept, principle, or discovery, regardless of the form in which it is described, explained, illustrated, or embodied in such work.” (emphasis added)

This is one of the truly fundamental principles underlying our entire intellectual property regime: No matter how original or creative your system may be, or how much time and effort you put into developing it—and Oracle spends a great deal of time in its pleadings showing how original and creative and useful and valuable its hierarchical organizing system for Java methods is, and how much time and effort it expended on its development—copyright law does not allow you to prevent others from reproducing and using that system.  

Incidentally, a posting [here]at the Federalist Society by David Hogberg gets this case horribly wrong. The inadvertent tip-off is right there in the headline:

“Here’s How The Supreme Court Can Stop Google From Stealing People’s Ideas.”

The Supreme Court can do no such thing, because copyright law does not prohibit “stealing” ideas; copying someone else’s idea isn’t “stealing” at all, because ideas can never receive copyright protection, no matter how brilliant or original it may be.

This vital principle establishes, among other important things, the line separating the world of copyright from the world of patent. You can get IP protection for a “system” or a “process” or a “method of operation,” but only by obtaining a patent on it, which will require you to meet very different, and far more stringent, requirements to obtain protection than does copyright, and which will last for a far, far shorter period of time.

Copyright aficionados will recognize this principle as having been derived from the seminal Baker v. Selden (101 US 99, 1879) case, a delicious case of 19th century commercial intrigue. Selden had come up with a new and innovative method of double-entry bookkeeping—one that, I’m told by those who understand bookkeeping better than I do, has been incorporated into much standard bookkeeping practice. He published a book describing the system, along with several blank data-entry forms that were to be used when implementing his new system. Baker, a stationery publisher, published books containing blank bookkeeping forms, and he included Selden’s forms; Selden sued, asserting that Baker had infringed his copyright in the book.

The Court held for Baker. It started with a “proposition so evident that it requires hardly any argument to support it”: that Selden, though he possessed a valid copyright in his book, obtained no exclusive rights therefrom in the bookkeeping system itself. Exclusive rights of that kind, the Court declared, “are the province of letters-patent, not of copyright,” and any such claim “must be subjected to the examination of the Patent Office before an exclusive right therein can be obtained.” Because Selden’s system had not been patented, it was “open and free to the use of the public.”

And because using the system required using the special forms that Selden had devised—the Court called the forms “necessary incidents” to the use of the system itself—the forms were, like the system itself, “open and free to the use of the public.” To hold otherwise—to give Selden a copyright monopoly over the forms—would effectively give him a monopoly over the use of the system. Patent-like protection, in other words, without having to satisfy the requirements of the Patent Act.

In short, Oracle’s system for organizing its library of Java “methods” has no copyright protection whatsoever, and Google was allowed—at least as far as copyright law is concerned—to copy it. Only a patent would serve to protect it from replication—and Oracle, like Mr. Selden, didn’t get a patent. As the district court put it:

That a system or method of operation has thousands of commands arranged in a creative taxonomy does not change its character as a method of operation. Yes, it is creative. Yes, it is original. But it is nevertheless a command structure, a system or method of operation — a long hierarchy of over six thousand commands to carry out pre-assigned functions. For that reason, it cannot receive copyright protection — patent protection perhaps — but not copyright protection.

[A great deal of ] code had been written in Java before Android arrived. These programs necessarily used the java.package.Class.method() command format. These programs called on all or some of the specific 37 packages at issue and necessarily used the command structure of names at issue. Such code was owned by the developers themselves, not by Oracle. In order for at least some of this code to run on Android, Google was required to provide the same java.package.Class.method() command system using the same names with the same “taxonomy” and with the same functional specifications. Google replicated what was necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability—but no more, taking care, as said before, to provide its own implementations…. Google was and remains free to group its methods in the same way as in Java, that is, to organize its Android methods under the same class and package scheme as in Java.

“Necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability.” That language helps explain why the case is so important, and why interest in it is so high. If Oracle prevails here, the ability of software developers to design interoperable programs—programs which borrow enough of the command structure and organization of other, pre-existing programs—will be deeply compromised, and that could well have rather profound and unfortunate consequences throughout the technology industries.

The Federal Circuit, in reversing the district court and holding that Oracle did possess an enforceable copyright in its system for organizing the Java methods library, has perpetrated a deep and substantial misunderstanding of U.S. copyright law.*** One hopes that the Supreme Court will take this opportunity to correct that unfortunate state of affairs and put copyright law back on course.

***That the case ended up going from the Northern District of California to the Federal Circuit—the appellate court primarily responsible for hearing patent appeals—rather than the Ninth Circuit was due to the fact that Oracle had originally asserted a patent claim in addition to its copyright claim. The patent claim, however, was subsequently dismissed, though not before it had given the Federal Circuit jurisdiction over the appeal. The judges on the Federal Circuit have little experience with the Copyright Act, and it showed.

In fact, the Federal Circuit reversed two separate decisions in Google’s favor in this case. On the first appeal, it reversed the district court by holding that Oracle’s organization of its Java libraries was a copyrightable work of authorship, and remanded the case back to the district court for trial. The district court then held a full jury trial on the question of whether Google had infringed that copyright; the jury found no infringement because Google’s use of the hierarchical structure constituted a “fair use.” Once again, on appeal, the Federal Circuit reversed. That decision, too, for reasons I won’t go into here [see here and here if you’re interested], has little to recommend it.

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