Late-Day Stock-Buying Panic “Proves” Jobs Data Was “Great”

Stocks end the week on a weaker note roundtripping off premature exuberance into the European close after jobs data that missed expectations (or did they). Of course the kneejerk response took the S&P and Dow to record highs before the weakness set in. Thanks to a late day panic-buying rip though, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 close the week unch – no need to call Mr. Bullard. Treasury yields collapsed today, ending the week down around 3-4bps. The USD sold off today to close the week up 0.6% with JPY and AUD the weakest against the greenback on the week. Gold (and silver) rallied to close the week almost unchanged. Interestingly, despite VIX's best efforts (almost breaking under 13), stocks rolled over this afternoon (then ripped). Oil prices pushed modestly higher early on and ended the day around $78.50. The ubiquitous Friday late-day buying panic ripped everything higher – on absolutely no news – "proving" that the jobs data was great (expect, why were safe haven bond and bullion so heavily bid?)

 

On the week Trannies surged and thanks to some late day mania, Nasdaq and Russell managed to creep back into the green

 

From the Payrolls print…

 

Treasuries and stocks decoupled into the European close… then stocks caught down…

 

VIX and Stocks decoupled this afternoon

 

Treasury yields collapsed today to end the week lower…

 

The Dollar rallied on the week but ended red today…

 

Gold and silver soared today. Gold into the green on the week…

 

Big Reversal in gold

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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BBC Says Climate Change Is Already Killing Polar Bears. Maybe Not.

Polar BearSome “science-affirmers” of man-made climate
change argue that melting Arctic Ocean sea
ice
will doom polar bears. Why? Because the bears hunt seals on
the ice. No ice, no seals to munch on. It is true that the extent
of summer Arctic Ocean sea ice has been on a downward trend for the
past several decades, but how are polar bears really faring?

In its article, “Will
Polar Bears Become Extinct?
,” the BBC reports:

“The best estimates we’ve got indicate that we’ll probably lose
somewhere around two-thirds of the world’s bears somewhere around
mid-century, just based on the simple fact that we’re losing sea
ice,” says Andrew Derocher, a professor of
biological sciences at the University of Alberta and past chair of
the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN)
Polar Bear Specialist Group. …

In the Hudson Bay, when Derocher first started doing research in
the region there were 1200 bears. Now there are barely 800. “The
current status is the numbers have dropped by about a third,”
Derocher says. “It certainly doesn’t seem like it’s on a continuous
precipitous climb.”

However, in February 2014, other researchers published a study
in
Biological Conservation
that found no firm evidence
for such a precipitous decline in the Hudson Bay region. In
addition, the Polar Bear Technical Committee of Environment Canada

published a map
in June 2014 showing estimates of various
subpopulations of polar bears. The committee estimates there are
between 1, 000 and 1,500 bears in Western Hudson Bay (WH) and that
the population is likely stable. See map below.

Polar Bears

Click on map link above for a larger map.

Keep in mind that counting wild animals in remote areas is
always a difficult and fraught enterprise and people are likely to
see what they want to see.

Hat tip to Marian Tupy and Matt Ridley.

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Forget Tesla ‘D’ – This Is The Fastest Electric Car In The World

Submitted by Andy Tully via OilPrice.com,

Grimsel

When we think of electric cars, probably the first thing that comes to mind is the Chevrolet Volt, which is smooth running but needs frequent recharging. Plus it’s no speed demon.

But if you think electric cars still deserve consideration, take a look at the “Grimsel,” the creation of the technical schools ETH Zurich and Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts. On Nov. 3 the students put the spurs to the car and got it to accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers per hour (62 mph) in 1.785 seconds, using less than 30 meters of track.

That’s nearly twice as fast as Tesla’s fleet Model S P85D. And it’s record-breaking.

One of the 30 students from the two schools, all members of the formula Student team at the Academic Motorsports Club Zurich (AMZ), had the Grimsel roaring down a runway at the military airfield in Duebendorf to beat the old record of 0-to-100 kph in 2.134 seconds that had been held by an electric car built by the Netherlands’ Delft University of Technology.

The new record is awaiting ratification by the Guinness Book of World Records.

The car itself is a Formula Student vehicle designed and constructed in less than a year by students at both ETH and Lucerne. The record-breaking car, the fifth iteration of the students’ continuing research, packs 200 horsepower and its chassis is a one-piece carbon-fiber shell, strong and light. It weighs 370 pounds.

The rubber meets the road with tires measuring 7.5 inches in width attached to the hubs with one-piece, again made from strong, light carbon fiber.

Grimsel is a four-wheel-drive vehicle, though probably not meant for driving in inclement weather or over rough terrain, but for efficient speed. Each wheel hub is fitted with special electric motors which together generate 1,202 foot-pounds of torque. The car distributes torque individually to each wheel to optimize acceleration while minimizing wheel spin.

ETH Zurich says this is the strongest acceleration of any other production vehicle ever made.

This wasn’t the first success for the “Grimsel.” During the summer it also won several races at the Formula Student international competition. More than 500 teams are represented at Formula Student, the world’s largest such event for engineers held each year in a different country.

“Grimsel” managed three wins in the 2014 competition and racked up an average of 920 points out of a possible 1,000, making it so far the most successful car designed and built by AMZ. The car also had a victory each in Austria and Spain, and by winning both races it earned the highest scores in the European history of Formula Student.




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Student And Car Loans Go Exponential, Courtesy Of Uncle Sam

Another month, another $14.5 billion increase in student and car loans, offset by a measly $1.4 billion in credit card debt, following last month’s upward revised $200 million drop in revolving debt. Total consumer debt in September increase by $15.9 billion, just below the $16.0 billion estimate, and the problem is that with the Fed’s credit injection fading, someone has to step on the borrowing pedal. Alas, if one takes away student and car loans, the credit creation is not nearly enough to push US consumption higher.

 

Revolving credit: the credit card buying spree from late spring is long gone. Compared the recent “recovery” period to the “healthy” credit card purchasing days of 2007 reveals that nothing is as it should be.

 

So it’s all up to non-revolving credit, which continues to increase between $10 and $15 billion each month.

 

What’s most troubling is that after several months of depository institutions funding the bulk of credit needs, the past two months have reverted to the old normal, where Uncle Sam is the sole provider of consumer credit.

 

In any event, the most amusing chart is the following. It simply screams sustainable.




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Here Comes Another Newsletter: Presenting Nouriel Unplugged – “Economic Insights Of A Global Nomad”

Guess that sale of Roubini’s RGE consultancy didn’t go quite as planned. Recall from three years ago:

It seems that everyone’s favorite Dr.Doom is selling his consultancy after only several years of operation, David Faber reports. The consultancy, according to confidential sales materials, will generate $11MM in revenue and $2MM of losses. The bulk of clients of the 85 person shop, Faber reports, is corporations, not actual investors, making the buyside wonder “who incremental clients will be.” We wonder just how any potential buyer will be able to lock up Roubini for several years, without whose presence RGE will have questionable going concern value. We wish @Nouriel the best of luck in his sales process, whose successful conclusion (or otherwise) probably means that Roubini will end up as a blogger and paid panelist.

We should have added “newsletter writer” because moments ago Dr Doom unveiled… Nouriel Unplugged.

From Roubini:

 

Dear friends,

 

Throughout my 25-year career as a macroeconomist, my work has been to interpret conflicting economic and market signals. In short, to make sense of the data inside of the noise – either in an academic setting or for governments and institutional investors.

 

Today it’s my great pleasure to introduce you to a new direction in my research – dedicated specifically to individual investors – and the launch of my most personal project yet.

 

In the nearly seven years since the beginning of the Great Recession, one of the questions I’m most frequently asked is about the role that macroeconomics plays in the lives of individual investors – and more specifically, which economic information relates directly to their lives.

 

This is a critically important question and one that my work – which has been applied to academic and institutional macroeconomic research – has not, until now, explored.

 

During the last year, I have given a great deal of thought to how best to answer this question. How to develop new ways of making the ideas that I’m most passionate about available to individual investors and readers such as you, who are interested in the global economy.

 

My goal has been to create a new format that’s less technical, more conversational, and engages the curiosity of a wider audience, all with the aim of providing the news and information I think is most important to your financial future.

 

With that goal in mind, I’ve decided to create a letter dedicated to individual investors, called Nouriel Unplugged. Because of the current and ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, understanding macroeconomic trends is of paramount importance to the individual – and that’s the reason why I am making this letter available free of charge.

 

As I travel, sometimes the most important lessons I learn occur in the moments between policy and business meetings. Nouriel Unplugged ties together those stories – economics, culture, politics, government, art, and society – to tell a story that can’t be conveyed with the traditional use of economic data alone.

 

In short, in Nouriel Unplugged, my goal is to not only tell the stories behind the data but to explain how they relate to you.

 

Recently, I sat down with journalist Salimah Ebrahim for a five-part series of video interviews that are well worth watching. Topics run the gamut from the lack of financial literacy in the Western world, to what is in store for emerging markets, to the regrettable level of dysfunction in Washington, DC, and more.

 

As soon as these videos are posted on the Roubini’s Edge site, you will receive an email with a video link in your inbox, for your viewing pleasure.
It’s very exciting for me to begin a new phase of my career – talking to individual investors about the challenges and opportunities that a macroeconomic perspective on the markets can provide.

 

As one of my readers, you don’t have to take any action to begin receiving Nouriel Unplugged – each issue will be delivered to your email inbox biweekly, free of charge. Of course, if you would prefer not to receive Nouriel Unplugged, please feel free to opt out by clicking here.

 

I’m delighted to have you follow along with me in my future travels via Nouriel Unplugged, where I will share my impressions of the places I visit and the broader ideas that shape our world and drive our financial markets.

 

I look forward to continuing our conversation in the near future.

 

Cordially,

 

Nouriel Roubini
Chairman
Roubini’s Edge

If Roubini’s newsletter is even remotely as valuable as Gartman’s, we can already predict (with the appropriate hockeystick chart of course) the first billionaire economist in the world.




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Obama Authorizes Plan To Double Number Of Troops In Iraq

If you like your boots-on-the-ground, you can keep them… and have some more. Whether a strawman or not, Reuters reports that according to US officials, the U.S. military has drawn up plans to significantly increase the number of American forces in Iraq, which now total around 1,400, as Washington seeks to bolster Iraqi forces battling the Islamic State.

  • *OBAMA AUTHORIZES 1,500 MORE U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL FOR IRAQ
  • *OBAMA REQUESTING $5.6 BILLION MORE TO FIGHT ISLAMIC STATE
  • *WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SAYS TROOPS WON’T BE IN COMBAT ROLE
  • *PENTAGON TO SET UP NEW OPERATIONS, TRAINING CENTER IN IRAQ

Via Reuters,

The U.S. military has drawn up plans to significantly increase the number of American forces in Iraq, which now total around 1,400, as Washington seeks to bolster Iraqi forces battling the Islamic State, U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday.

 

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to offer details. The United States aims to help advise and train Iraqi and Kurdish forces battling Islamic State fighters who swept into much of northern Iraq.

*  *  *

As NBC News adds,

The Obama administration is prepared to almost double the American military presence in Iraq to 3,000, sources told NBC News on Friday.

 

The current figure is about 1,600. The sources said that an increase to 3,000 was among several options under consideration. There is no plan to include ground combat forces in the additional deployments, they said.

 

The additional troops are needed to expand the military’s role in training and helping Iraqi forces, including the highly volatile part of Anbar Province under the control of ISIS, the sources said.

 

The White House and Pentagon were expected to announce further details later Friday.

*  *  *

So The US must be ‘winning’ against ISIS if they need more humanitarian military advisor non-boots-on-the-ground troops…?




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It’s Really Easy to Smuggle Drugs Into Rikers Island Prison, Investigation Finds

It’s been a bad public relations year for the
violence
– and
corruption
-plagued Rikers Island Correctional Facility in New
York City. Reports of prison guards savagely
bludgeoning
inmates to death—and more often than not getting
off
scot-free
. Hundreds of inmates suffering serious injury from

guard brutality
. A culture of
fear and intimidation
to suppress any repercussions for
officers and their superiors. And all this at a
hefty price
for taxpayers.

But the truculent guards at Rikers don’t only spend their time
brutalizing inmates—they also act as well-paid couriers, secreting
drugs and other contraband into the prison. Last month, an
undercover Department of Investigation (DOI) agent managed to
smuggle $22,000 worth of illicit goods into all six facilities on
Rikers Island. The New York Times
reports
:

The pockets of his cargo pants, according to the report, were
bulging with 250 packets of heroin; 24 strips of Suboxone, a pain
killer; and half a pound of marijuana.

He was also carrying a razor blade and a water bottle full of
vodka.

The undercover agent would’ve been handsomely paid for his
services,
according to the DOI report
:

DOI estimates, based on intelligence it has gathered, that a
[Department of Corrections] employee could make approximately
$3,600 in courier fees for the amount of contraband smuggled during
each operation.

Over the past year and a half, six guards and a nurse have been
arrested for smuggling at Rikers. The DOI investigation reports
that correctional officers sneaked in thousands of dollars worth of
drugs, tobacco, and alcohol to inmates who then resold the products
to other prisoners. Tobacco alone is quite a lucrative enterprise,
with a pack of cigarettes reportedly
costing upwards of $200
in NYC’s smoke free jails.

The DOI blames the prison’s smuggling problem on lax security
protocols and their rather insouciant enforcement. When the
undercover investigator set off a metal detector at one facility, a
guard asked him to empty his pockets. The investigator lied, saying
that he had already done so, and the guard let him pass through the
checkpoint without batting an eye.

Based on its findings, the report recommends drug sniffing dogs,
more oversight of staff entrances, and implementation of
Transportation Security Administration–style security procedures.
Because
those work so well
.

The great irony is, of course, that even in a prison on an
island, officials can’t break apart the quid pro quo between drug
users and their suppliers. But don’t worry, America. Once we
finally get that
border fence up and running
, we’ll finally be able to make some
progress in the war on drugs.

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Tonight on The Independents: Now What? With a Trash-Talking Ron Paul, Plus Gary Johnson, Alan Colmes, Andrea Tantaros, FAIR’s Dan Stein, and More

Sparks will fly. |||Tonight’s special post-election WTF episode of
The
Independents
(Fox Business Network, 9 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. PT,
with re-airs three and five hours later) features a can’t-miss
interview with libertarian fave Ron Paul, who has some, ah,
interesting things to say about those dang Senate
Republicans, war, and whether a real libertarian could
ever win the presidency. You can watch a snippet of his answer

at this link
:

Also on the show talking about more or less the same subject
(including
Sen. Rand Paul by name
), is once-and-maybe-future Libertarian
Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson. Dan Stein of
the restrictionist Federation for American
Immigration Reform
will talk about hopes and fears for the new
GOP Senate majority. Party Panelists
Andrea Tantaros
(co-host of the Fox News shows
Outnumbered and The Five) and Alan Colmes (Alan Colmes!) will
bat each other about the face and neck over the meaning of
Tuesday’s election and the prognosis for the country going forward.
And the co-hosts will assess how the new political reality will
affect
drug de-prohibition
and
surveillance reform
. It’s a lively and informative television
program.

Follow The Independents on Facebook at http://ift.tt/QYHXdB,
follow on Twitter @ independentsFBN, and
click on this page
for more video of past segments.

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When Will Legal Pot Be Available in Alaska, Oregon, and D.C.?

Although
voters in Alaska, Oregon, and Washingtion, D.C.,
approved
marijuana legalization on Tuesday, that does not mean
Colorado-style pot shops will be popping up in those jurisdictions
anytime soon. Here is what has to happen
first:

Alaska

Measure
2
takes effect
90 days
after the election results are certified, which
according to the
Alaska Dispatch News
 is expected to happen in “late
November.” Sometime in February, then, the provisions related
to possession (up to an ounce), home cultivation (six plants, three
mature), and transfers (up to an ounce, “without remuneration”)
will kick in. Thanks to a 1975 Alaska Supreme Court ruling,
it is already legal to possess small amounts of marijuana in the
privacy of one’s home. Measure 2 expands that right to other
settings while explicitly protecting the right to grow your own pot
and share it with others.

Under Measure 2, Alaska’s
Alcoholic Beverage Control Board
(or a special Marijuana
Control Board if the state legislature decides to create one) is
required to adopt regulations for commercial production and
distribution of marijuana “not later than nine months after the
effective date of this act,” which will be about a year from now.
The board is required to start “accepting and processing
applications” from would-be growers, manufacturers, and merchants
within three months of adopting regulations, and it is supposed to
act on each application within three months. That means the first
“registration” for a marijuana business might not be issued until
the middle of 2016. Allowing time for growing, harvesting, and
processing, marijuana could be available to sell in
state-registered stores by the end of 2016.

Oregon

Under Measure
91
, adults 21 or older will be allowed to possess up to an
ounce of marijuana in public, grow up to four plants at home,
possess up to eight ounces at home, and share up to an ounce at a
time with adults “for noncommercial purposes.” Those provisions
take effect on July 1, 2015. The Oregon Liquor Control Commission
is required to adopt regulations for cannabusinesses by January 1,
2016, and start accepting license applications by January 4. There
is no specific time limit on processing applications, but the
initiative says “the commission shall not unreasonably delay”
action. Assuming it takes 90 days (the upper limit in Alaska), the
first marijuana businesses could be licensed in April 2016, so
legal recreational sales could begin a few months earlier in Oregon
than in Alaska, maybe in the fall of 2016. If regulators move
faster on applications, stores could open as early as that
summer.

Washington, D.C.

Initiative
71
 does not take effect until after D.C. Council Chairman
Phil Mendelson submits it to Congress for review. For most
legislation, the review period
is 30 days, which is what the initiative itself indicates. For
legislation that changes Title 22, 23, or 24 of the D.C. Code, the review period is 60
days. The initiative does refer to Title 22, but only to say that
the fines listed there “shall be adjusted through implementing or
amending legislation enacted by the Council of the District of
Columbia to the extent necessary to ensure that this Act does not
negate or limit any act of the Council.” The D.C. Cannabis
Campaign, which sponsored the initiative, says that does not amount
to the sort of change that would trigger the 60-day review period.
Either way, if Congress does not pass a joint resolution
overturning Initiative 71 by the end of the review period, the
measure takes effect.

At that point adults 21 or older would be allowed to
possess up to two ounces, grow up to six plants (with no more than
three mature at any given time), keep whatever marijuana those
plants produce at home, and transfer up to an ounce at a time to
other adults “without remuneration.” Exactly when those provisions
take effect depends on when Mendelson officially transmits the
initiative to Congress. 
Nikolas Schiller,
director of communications for the D.C. Cannabis Campaign, says
Mendelson told the initiative’s backers he plans to treat it like
any other piece of legislation. But at a press conference on
Wednesday, incoming Mayor Muriel Bowser
said
she does not want Congress to consider the initiative
under the D.C. Council has approved legislation dealing with
commercial production and distribution, which the initiative does
not address.

If Mendelson follows Bowser’s suggestion, Schiller says,
implementation of Initiative 71 would be delayed at least until the
middle of next year, and marijuana from licensed stores would not
be available until late 2016 or early 2017. 
The
campaign argues that the D.C. Council should respect the wishes of
the voters who overwhelmingly approved the initiative by letting it
take effect without delay. If the initiative goes to Congress this
year, D.C. residents could be harvesting homegrown marijuana by the
middle of next year instead of waiting for government-licensed
stores that might not open for another year or two.

Even if Congress does not pass a joint resolution rejecting
Initiative 71 or whatever bill the D.C. Council ends up passing, it
can block legalization by barring the District from spending money
to implement it. For years Congress used that technique to prevent
implementation of the medical marijuana initiative that D.C. voters
approved in 1998. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who unsuccessfully

tried
to stop D.C. from decriminalizing possession of marijuana
this year,
says
he will “consider using all resources available to a
member of Congress” to block legalization.

By contrast, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who starting next year is
expected to chair a Senate
committee
that oversees the District of Columbia, has
said
Congress should not override the will of D.C. voters. “I
think there should be a certain amount of discretion for both
states and territories and the District,” Paul
told
reporters on Election Day. “I’m not for having the federal
government get involved. I really haven’t taken a stand on…the
actual legalization…but I’m against the federal government
telling them they can’t.”

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