Deutsche Bank CEO Vows To Make “Tough Cutbacks” As Shares Slump To Record Low

Watching Deutsche Bank shares crash to new all-time lows (around €6.35 $7.07) just as the troubled German lender’s annual shareholder meeting was getting underway in Frankfurt on Thursday, we could hardly imagine anything more appropriate. Actually, that’s not true – there is one thing: The revelation, just hours before the meeting’s start, that a ‘software glitch’ had blocked reporting of suspicious transactions for years.

With DB’s brand mired in controversy thanks to Congressional subpoenas that have drawn attention to its lending relationship with the Trump Organization, anything that would appear to support Maxine Waters’ claim that DB is “the biggest money laundering bank in the world” is perhaps the last thing shareholders need to see (other than maybe another capital raise).

Following the collapse of merger talks with Commerzbank, Deutsche’s frustrated shareholders let it be known that their patience with the bank’s perennial underperformance and its cratering share price (the bank’s market capitalization is now under €15 billion euros) has run out. Now is the time for CEO Christian Sewing, who was heralded as a reformer when he was elevated to replace John Cryan 14 months ago, to make good on his promise to turn DB around.

DB

Christian Sewing

And though Sewing didn’t give as much ground as investors would probably have liked, he did deliver a grudging concession during his speech: It’s time to make “tough cutbacks” to DB’s investment bank. WSJ described Sewing’s statement to shareholders as “his strongest public admission yet that the business needs a dramatic overhaul.”

And it’s about time, because shareholders have become so frustrated, that one felt it necessary to convey his grievances to the bank’s management in verse.

One of the reasons DB investors are so frustrated with Achleitner and Sewing is their unwillingness to even consider making serious cuts to the investment bank. Some have suggested that the bank should give up on trading and advisory, and focus instead on its ‘transaction banking’ business, which mostly caters to corporations and their cash-management needs. However, Sewing and Achleitner have insisted that investment banking is core to DB’s identity, that it can be made profitable, and furthermore, that it’s a matter of national pride.

DB

Courtesy of the FT

None of DB’s businesses have drawn the ire of investors more than its equity-trading business (particularly its US equities business), which lost more than $800 million last year.

Though his speech was light on details, Sewing promised to strengthen DB’s transaction bank, which recently came under new leadership, while promising to make “tough cutbacks” at the investment bank. He added that DB is still open to a merger involving its DWS unit, which is reportedly considering a tie-up with UBS’s asset-management business, or some other asset-management business, though nothing has been finalized, Bloomberg reports.

As the merger talks with Commerzbank were unraveling, there were reports that DB was toying with the idea of lumping its money losing businesses and most toxic assets into a ‘bad bank’, which prompted a litany of jokes, the crux of which was that DB is already a ‘bad bank’. 

As for Achleitner, the chairman is facing a shareholder challenge to his leadership, which seeks to force him to step down before the end of his term in 2020. Achleitner conceded that he’s “made some mistakes” over the past seven years, but that he still feels he’s qualified to lead a turnaround: “Did I make mistakes in the last seven years? Of course I made mistakes. Am I the root of all the problems? Of course I am not. I do not want a monument, but I think Deutsche Bank is very important.”

Since the crisis, DB has paid roughly $20 billion in fines – far more than any other G-SIB – for misdeeds ranging from the Russian mirror-trading scandal to rigging FX and interest-rate markets.

Another sign of investors’ anxieties: Not only are DB shares back at record lows, but valuation metrics like Price to Tangible Book Value have also slumped to their lowest levels on record.

Those are some expensive mistakes.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2QiUCYx Tyler Durden

Could China Dump Its US Treasuries? A Contrarian View Emerges From Beijing

Authored by Karen Yeung via The South China Morning Post,

As American pundits and polls dismiss the idea that China would dump its massive holdings of US Treasury debt as retaliation against US tariffs, a contrarian view is emerging in Beijing that the government may use the securities as a “weapon of last resort”.

China’s US$1.12 trillion holdings account for just 5 per cent of total US national debt, which may mean any material damage on the US economy stemming from a bond sales would be limited. In addition, even if it did cause market volatility, China’s remaining holdings would also be hurt, which the Chinese may view as a move that is too risky, US sceptics have said.

“While we think China will continue to sell Treasuries, as it has for most of the last year, we do not think that the pace at which they sell will increase as a direct response measure for tariffs. Rather, we believe that the pace at which they sell Treasuries will continue to track the pace at which they see capital inflows,” said Matthew Hornbach, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

However, with Beijing vowing to fight “to the end” and the US preparing to place a 25 per cent tariff on a further US$300 billion of Chinese imports, China may have “no choice but to sell” its US Treasury holdings, according to some analysts and reports widely distributed on China’s social media .

Flowers bloom on a tree bloom near the US Treasury Department building in Washington, DC. Photo: Agence France-Presse

This would devalue US bonds, causing yields to rise, potentially sharply. If China converted the dollar proceeds from its sale back into yuan, it would strengthen the  Chinese currency against the US dollar, potentially significantly.

However, one line of thinking is that because the trade war could remove the US as a viable market for Chinese exports, a strengthening yuan against the dollar – which would make Chinese goods more expensive for American buyers – may be seen as an acceptable outcome by Chinese policymakers.

“This will only happen when China has no other option. It is a weapon of last resort,” said David Chin, the founder of Basis Point Consulting.

“If China is not exporting to the US any more, then they do not need to have a weak yuan and  strong dollar to encourage Americans to buy.”

However, China would have to sell strategically to maximise profits while triggering enough panic in the global financial markets, Chin said.

China is making a profit on its US$1.1 trillion treasury holdings. It bought them at an average of 3.3 per cent yield over the past decade compared to the current yield of 2.4 per cent on 10-year treasury bonds. That leaves room for it to sell US$700 billion of its US$1.1 trillion holding before pushing yields to its break even point of 3.3 per cent.

The US$700 billion figure is based on Russia’s sale of around US$81 billion of US Treasuries between March and May last year, which pushed yields from the 2.80 per cent to 2.90 per cent.

Chinese media has already laid out a plan for how Beijing could offload its Treasury holdings.

Initially, China may want to avoid market attention by quietly and occasionally offloading US Treasuries, local media reported. Once the market became accustomed to such trades, China could rapidly ramp up sales to create panic and a quick correction in the market, the reports said.

Because of the massive size of the US Treasuries market, buyers and sellers have the power to cause investment changes to snowball so as to influence market sentiment and trigger investor fear that could spill into the broader capital markets, traders said.

“Massive amounts of continuous selling of US debt will raise suspicion among professional traders that there is a major seller in the market, which could be China,” said Jasper Lo, chief investment strategies at Eddid Securities and Futures.

“That could quickly spillover worries of the value of US dollar treasuries and assets, and cause global financial market turmoil.”

The dollar’s weighting among global central banks’ reserves has gradually declined. The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that in the global central banks’ foreign exchange reserves at the end of last year, the dollar ratio had dropped from 72 per cent in 2000 to 61.7 per cent by the last quarter of 2018, the third consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest level since 2013.

Talks between the US and China have broken down, leading to an escalation in the trade war. Some are speculating that China may sell some of its US Treasuries as a means of retaliating for higher US tariffs. Photo: Bloomberg

Non-US central banks are increasingly reluctant to hold US bonds in large amounts because of the relatively low returns. The low yields are a result of risk aversion among investors, sparked by mounting concerns over a global recession and the Federal Reserve’s dovish monetary policy.

Overall, March was a bad month for US assets, with overseas investors selling a net US$12.5 billion in US Treasury bonds and US$24 billion in US stocks. The biggest seller of US Treasury bonds was Canada, which sold US$12.5 billion worth of securities, the biggest drop in its holdings since July 2011.

Similarly, China’s US Treasury holdings in March decreased by US$10.4 billion to US$1.1205 trillion, its lowest since May 2017, according to data from the US Treasury. The decline contrasted sharply with the increase in its foreign exchange reserves to US$3.1 trillion in the same month, the highest since August last year.

China remained, however. the largest US foreign creditor, ahead of Japan which added US$5.7 billion in March, bringing its holdings to US$1.0781 trillion, a five-month high.

Like many other countries, the composition of China’s reserves remain a closely-held secret, but it is thought that about two thirds of its US$3.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are held in dollar-denominated assets, much of that in US Treasuries.

The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo: Agence France-Presse

By increasing the share of gold and Special Drawing Rights – the IMF’s composite currency – in its foreign exchange reserves, Chinese media said Beijing was shoring up support to ensure the stability of the yuan.

If China does resort to dumping US Treasuries, it could incite unknown US counter measures, which could heighten market volatility. China’s play could also draw the wrath of other large bond holders, such as Japan and the European Union.

“It’s a very convoluted situation because there are parties involved like the EU, with their holdings. So this is a big geopolitical move that is a significant situation but only when there is no hope for reconciliation,” Chin said.

For now, the notion of escalating the trade war with monetary weapons is seen as just talk, particularly on the US side – from Wall Street pundits to regulators.

“They could certainly sell them if they want to. But since global markets are global markets, I’m not sure there’d be much of an effect,” St Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard, a member of the US central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said at a conference in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

He noted that the slide in China’s foreign reserves, which could been partially due to sales of US Treasuries, by nearly US$1 trillion between mid-2014 and early-2017 had been a “non-event in global markets”.

“I don’t think it as much of a threat as it’s made out to be,” he said.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2VNn5GY Tyler Durden

‘American Taliban’ Free After 17 Years In Prison

‘American Taliban’ John Walker Lindh is now a free man after serving over 17 years in prison following his capture on an Afghanistan battlefield in late 2001, three years ahead of schedule for good behavior. 

The 38-year-old Lindh was released Thursday from the federal prison in Terre Haute, Indiana according to the Associated Press, citing the federal Bureau of Prisons. 

Due to concerns that Lindh may still harbor radical ideology, a judge recently imposed additional restrictions on his post-release supervision. including monitoring software on his internet devices, a requirement that he communicate online in English, and undergoing mental health counseling. He has also been forbidden from possessing or viewing extremist material, holding a passport or leaving the US. Lindh initially opposed the restrictions, but eventually acquiesced.  

Probation officers never explained why they sought the restrictions but it is clear that authorities retain misgivings about Lindh. In 2017, Foreign Policy magazine cited a National Counterterrorism Center report that Lindh “continued to advocate for global jihad and to write and translate violent extremist texts.”

On Wednesday, NBC reported that Lindh, in a letter to a producer from Los Angeles-based affiliate KNBC, wrote in 2015 that the Islamic State is “doing a spectacular job” and “is clearly very sincere and serious about fulfilling the long-neglected religious obligation to establish a caliphate through armed struggle.” AP

As we noted earlier this week, Lindh converted to Sunni Islam at age 16 after dropping out of school and becoming obsessed with hip-hop and the movie Malcolm X (he pretended to be a black rapper online and criticized others for “acting black”). Shortly after his father left his mother for another man, the culturally appropriating Lindh began to attend San Francisco Bay Area mosques. After a 10-month trip to Yemen in 1998 to study the Qur’an, Lindh returned home for eight months, only to return to the Middle East – eventually winding up in Afghanistan to take up arms against Northern Alliance fighters in May, 2001. 

He was captured on November 25, 2001 and held at an a makeshift prison in Afghanistan, where he would participate in an extremely violent prisoner uprising (the battle of Qala-i-Jangi) that led to the death of CIA officer Johnny “Mike” Spann and hundreds of foreign fighters. Lindh was one of 86 prisoners who survived after hiding in a basement with a group of detainees who shot at Red Cross workers sent in to collect the dead, killing one

Spann’s family has criticized Lindh’s early release. His daughter, Alison Spann, said over Twitter that she asked President Trump to block Lindh’s release, calling him a traitor, and saying that the early release was “a slap in the face.” 

In March, the legislature in Alabama, where Spann grew up, adopted a resolution calling Lindh’s release “an insult” to Spann’s “heroic legacy and his remaining family members.”

Mike Spann’s mother, Gail Spann, told reporters at the time that Lindh could have saved her son’s life had he warned him about the looming prisoner revolt.

He chose not to because he was a Taliban. He’s a traitor to our country. He could have had an opportunity to save a great man that actually saved a lot of lives that day,” she said. AP

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama and Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire have also expressed concern, writing in a letter to the Bureau of Prisons last week: “We must consider the security and safety implications for our citizens and communities who will receive individuals like John Walker Lindh who continue to openly call for extremist violence.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HPa9eY Tyler Durden

China’s Insurmountable Global Weakness: Its Currency

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price.

Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower’s currency?

Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan (RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but the yuan’s value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of buyers and sellers.

(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers (Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we’re talking about fiat currencies, backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)

Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power’s currency a sign of strength? The obvious answer is no. It’s a sign of weakness. A real financial power issues its own currency and let’s the global FX (foreign exchange) market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its government bonds and other pricing inputs.

If the issuing nation won’t allow users and owners of its currency price discovery, few will want the currency because they can’t trust the state’s arbitrary, non-market price. This reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies’ relative share in global payments, loans and reserves. China’s currency, the yuan (RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and reserves is near-zero.

Why does China cling to state control of its currency’s valuation? The obvious answer is that China’s economy and global role are too fragile to absorb a major revaluation of its currency up or down: a major loss in purchasing power would raise the cost of energy and other imports, while a major strengthening of the yuan would crush the global competitiveness of China’s goods and services.

As for the idea that China will unpeg its currency when it backs it with gold, recall that “backed by gold” means “convertible to gold.” If the yuan weakens and other nation-state owners of the currency decide gold is the safer bet, China will have to exchange yuan for gold if it wants to make good on its claim to be backing its currency with gold.

If the currency isn’t convertible to gold, it isn’t backed by gold at all; it’s just another fiat currency backed by nothing.

If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price. Anything less leaves China dependent on the U.S. and its currency, the dollar.

If China is so powerful, why doesn’t it let its currency float on the FX market like other trading nations? Until its currency floats freely like other currencies and the yuan’s price is discovered by supply and demand, China’s global role in currency payments, loans and reserves will remain near-zero. That is a weakness that appears to be insurmountable.

*  *  *

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via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/30Cl6Jk Tyler Durden

Panic In The Bond Market: Yields Tumble, 10Y Inverts To Fed Funds

After months of ignoring reality and sticking its head in the sand over the severity of US-China trade war, which consensus finally admits well be a painful, multi-year global affair, this morning denial has finally transformed into acceptance, and the result is a panic bid across the US yield curve, which has sent the 10Y TSY yield tumbling to 2.322%, the lowest since December 2017, with Treasury shorts crushed, and their expectations that bonds were wrong and stocks were right steamrolled once again.

The rush to safety means that the 3 Month-10 Year yield curve has once again inverted, dropping to -3.2bps, while the closely watched 2Y-10Y curve is down to just 16bps, and also fast approaching inversion.

Finally, indicating of just how widespread the panic buying across the curve is, this morning every yield through the 10Y is trading below the Fed Funds, which was 2.38% this morning, while the 10Y is at 2.3238%. As a reminder, such inversion has on average preceded recessions by 15 months in the last 7 business cycles.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2weTgVJ Tyler Durden

New Home Sales Collapse In April As Median Prices Soar

Following the disappointment in existing home sales (down YoY for 14 months straight), the recent spike in new home sales was expected to slide 2.5% MoM in April, but instead it crashed back to reality, plunging 6.9% MoM (after an upward revision for March).

YoY the recent spike has rolled over…

 

Pending- and New-home-sales had been the hope (as existing home sales rolled over – despite a collapse in mortgage rates), but no longer…

Not helped by an 8.8% YoY surge in median home price to $342,200 (the biggest YoY jump since Feb 2018), average selling price at $393,700. MoM, median home price spiked 11.9% (sounds like a mix issue or just seasonality issues)

And this even as supply rose – Months’ supply at 5.9 in April compared to 5.6 prior month.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2JCJgxV Tyler Durden

US PMIs Crash As Business Confidence Collapses To 7 Year Lows

Following disappointments in Europe’s PMI this morning (with Germany slumping even further, and seeing IFO hit a 4.5 year low), preliminary May data for US PMIs were expected to rebound very modestly after its recent collapse.

But both Manufacturing and Services PMI slumped again in May:

  • Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.9 (53.0 in April). 36-month low.

  • Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.9 (53.0 in April). 39-month low.

  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 50.6 (52.6 in April). 116-month low.

  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.8 (52.7 in April). 35-month low.

It’s ugly!!

‘Hard data’ has been leading the way lower and it seems soft survey data has finally caught down (just as hard data turns up against dismal expectations).

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“Growth of business activity slowed sharply in May as trade war worries and increased uncertainty dealt a further blow to order book growth and business confidence.

“A decline in the headline ‘flash’ PMI to its lowest for three years pushes the survey data down to a level historically consistent with GDP growing at an annualised rate of just 1.2% in May. Worse may be to come, as inflows of new business showed the smallest rise seen this side of the global financial crisis. Business confidence has meanwhile slumped to its lowest since at least 2012, causing firms to tighten their belts, notably in respect to hiring. Jobs growth in May was the weakest seen for over two years.

The slowdown has been led by manufacturing, but shows increasing signs of spreading to services. The survey data have been consistent with falling manufacturing output since February, but suggest that the sector’s woes intensified in May to mean factories will therefore likely act as an increasing drag on the economy in the second quarter. Trade wars remained top of the list of concerns among manufacturers, alongside signs of slower sales and weaker economic growth both at home and in key export markets.

“However, an additional concern is the spreading of the malaise to the service sector, growth of which slumped in May to one of the weakest since the global financial crisis. With the service sector’s performance being a key gauge of the health of domestic demand, this broadening-out of the slowdown poses downside risks to the outlook.”

This PMI print signals barely any GDP growth in Q2…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2M1ApIe Tyler Durden

Trump Rant Replaces Infrastructure Meeting as Impeachment Talk Swallows All of Politics

Trump ditches White House policy meeting to rant at reporters. When congressional Democratic leaders showed up at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, they were expecting to talk with President Donald Trump about U.S. infrastructure. The president had other plans.

With Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.), and several others ready for the meeting, Trump instead took to a Rose Garden podium for a stream-of-consciousness rant about Russia, obstruction, and Pelosi’s comments earlier in the day. That morning, the House speaker had said Trump had been part of a “coverup” regarding Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.

Pelosi and other Democrats have been talking a lot about conducting their own investigation into whether Trump obstructed Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the matter. But so far, Pelosi has rejected calls for impeachmenteven as many others, including libertarian-leaning Rep. Justin Amash (R–Mich.), have been suggesting impeachment is appropriate.

“Whether or not they carry the big i-word out, I can’t imagine that, but they probably would because they do whatever they have to do,” Trump said during his impromptu press conference yesterday. The Washington Post reports:

He stayed about 10 minutes, almost all of it a monologue. He took two brief questions and turned to go, ignoring others.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure meeting went on without him. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway, among others, remained in the room as Pelosi did some venting of her own, according to three people familiar with the session, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details of the meeting.


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Bill Blain: “Xi Is In Much More Trouble Than We Think”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“When May is Gone, Put Your Buying Boots On…”

Reading the obituaries of the extraordinary Niki Lauda y’day I came across this great line referring to his rivalry with Hunt the Shunt: “Hunt died of a hard-earned heart attack in 1993”. What a succinct summation in a single phrase of Hunt’s marvellous life, and the era!  

The sun is shining, so let me go on a short diversion as I compose the porridge on my way to work… This morning I walked along the highway to our local London polling station…. and kept walking.

Why bother? I am not going to vote in today’s European elections.

I can’t vote for Labour because I distrust Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership style and ability, and am disappointed the MPs lacked the guts to rebel to accept/positively amend the deal that was on the table.

I am not going to vote Conservative because the naked ambition of a few, and the lack of responsibility of the many, sickens me.

I am not going to vote Liberal because they are wrong – a vote is a vote is a vote. (While they may be very nice people, but they are generally wrong about everything.)

I am not wasting a vote on the Independents, although I have a great admiration for Chuka Umunna (having personally seen him face down with dignity an abusive slur at Waterloo one day).

Nether will I vote for the Brexit Party? Please… Nigel is a charmer, but not getting my vote because I see no truth in his one-dimensional vision of Europe which would set utterly the wrong basis for our future with our near and dear neighbors.

And, after their decent into darkness, a vote for UKIP would be a betrayal of what is so wonderful about the UK – our multicultural, cosmopolitan, yet still essentially British society.

If I could vote SNP, I might… but only to annoy my colleagues..

I won’t vote in today’s European election… unless anyone can persuade me otherwise. 😊

AND IT DOESN’T MATTER.

The UK is doing ok! There is some nonsense that the problems of Jaguar, the collapse of British Steel and the poor quality of M&S sandwiches is down to Brexit. Bollchocks.. We will do better when this Brexit nonsense is done and dusted.
Next few days I intend to do some work on opportunities in Sterling. I’ve a gut feel Theresa May is now the signal driving sterling weakness, and her eventual departure (this month, this year…) will be the signal to go long.. Interesting to note that PIMCO has been in buying UK retail parks! I will be back on this theme and its why the headline today is: When May is Gone Put Your Buying Boots On! There is nothing like a cathartic shock to boost sentiment and hike the market.

Politically, it would be positive to get some resolution of broken UK politics – but so many headlines  are taking about the last few days of May, and that she will resign shortly, probably mean she will be there for years and years to come.. The number of times pundits have predicted her imminent demise are almost as frequent as the many times as I’ve predicted imminent utter and complete market crash. Neither actually happens!

Meanwhile back in the real world…  

Increasingly complex world out there. Economic news is muddled – Japan down a bit, Germany up a bit. What does a strong Modi in India lead to? What about the Fed saying US economy doesn’t justify an ease – hardly a surprise. Get past the noise and work out the direction.

In terms of market action, trade fears really seem to have settled in as the dominant theme on markets. But if markets are simply wondering when there will be a solution, then they may be waiting for the wrong thing. While the mood remains negative as the market waits for a US/China agreement/resolution, maybe the new long-term reality is an increasingly and deliberately bifurcated global economy? The US and its allies vs China. If it sounds familiar – it should in terms of 1945-89. The West won the last Cold War on the same basis – and the economic benefits accrued to the free capitalist states, a theme the Neo-coms are increasingly banding around. You just imagine the scene in the war room: “This is time Mr President..”

Expect to see this theme develop in coming months. This is no longer a trade spat – this is morphing into full economic war. The US is willing to take a short-term hit in the form of higher consumer prices, and welcome inflation, from Chinese imports until global supply chains re-adjust and new domestic and international lines open, knowing the long-term damage is limited. Meanwhile, the hit to China is long-term and directly on production, thus right across the economy right at the most difficult phase of economic transition. Chinese economists are talking about a 1-2% hit to GDP. I suspect much more plus increased domestic social and political tension. Xi is in more trouble than we think.

On the basis Trump could not have come up with such a subtle plan – who did?

More importantly… Maybe it works?

It may take longer than we think – Bloomberg makes an interesting point this morning. The two largest US imports from China left un-tariffed are Laptops and Mobiles – many now assume they are next on the list as the US strategy to Chinese pilfer of IP now seems to be driving a wedge between Occidental and Oriental tech. Maybe not – the damage has already been done… Firms are cancelling tech orders from Chinese firms. But if you think how lucky you are not to own a Huawei, remember where your i-Phone was built.

Great rumors circulating about Apple making a bid for Tesla. How quaint and obvious way to hike the market. Nothing more than rumours… and why would Apple do that now Tesla looks increasingly discredited, the talk is of EV saturation (which I don’t believe), and driverless autonomy looks increasingly further away. These things are the future, and if Apple bides its time – the future for Tesla is much cheaper.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HQPhnn Tyler Durden

Trump Rant Replaces Infrastructure Meeting as Impeachment Talk Swallows All of Politics

Trump ditches White House policy meeting to rant at reporters. When congressional Democratic leaders showed up at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, they were expecting to talk with President Donald Trump about U.S. infrastructure. The president had other plans.

With Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.), and several others ready for the meeting, Trump instead took to a Rose Garden podium for a stream-of-consciousness rant about Russia, obstruction, and Pelosi’s comments earlier in the day. That morning, the House speaker had said Trump had been part of a “coverup” regarding Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.

Pelosi and other Democrats have been talking a lot about conducting their own investigation into whether Trump obstructed Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the matter. But so far, Pelosi has rejected calls for impeachmenteven as many others, including libertarian-leaning Rep. Justin Amash (R–Mich.), have been suggesting impeachment is appropriate.

“Whether or not they carry the big i-word out, I can’t imagine that, but they probably would because they do whatever they have to do,” Trump said during his impromptu press conference yesterday. The Washington Post reports:

He stayed about 10 minutes, almost all of it a monologue. He took two brief questions and turned to go, ignoring others.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure meeting went on without him. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway, among others, remained in the room as Pelosi did some venting of her own, according to three people familiar with the session, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details of the meeting.


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