New Data Reveals Just How Many Americans Temporarily Moved To Escape Pandemic Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 14:00
Moving-focused group MyMove analyzed data from the USPS about change-of-address requests. By far, this is the most comprehensive snapshot of migration trends during the coronavirus pandemic – revealing nearly 16 million Americans moved between February and July.
MyMove determined temporary moves soared 27% between February and July compared with the same period last year. The data also shows permanent address changes rose by 1.9% year over year.
The most significant outlier in the USPS data was the parabolic spike in temporary address changes, mostly due to city-dwellers escaping large metros during coronavirus lockdowns.
Besides USPS data, MyMove also examined a Pew Research Center survey of 10,000 Americans conducted in July. The study allowed MyMove to understand why and where people moved.
“About a quarter (28%) told us [they chose to move] because they feared getting COVID-19 if they stayed where they were living,” said D’Vera Cohn, senior writer and editor for Pew who published the study findings, told MyMove.
“About a fifth (20%) said they wanted to be with their family, or their college campus closed (23%). A total of 18% gave financial reasons, including job loss,” Cohn said.
As the month-by-month chart below shows, “the number of total monthly moves has remained consistent throughout the pandemic, with slight spikes in March — at the onset of the pandemic — and in July. Summer months are peak moving season, which could also explain the July increase,” MyMove said.
MyMove shows that people moved from metro areas, like Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Chicago, to less populated cities that were in Texas, George, Florida, and Idaho. We outlined this here:
Noel Roberts, real estate agent for Nest Seekers International, told MyMove the exodus from cities was because people are waiting out the virus pandemic storm in rural communities.
MyMove also said people left metro areas to take “advantage of online learning or remote work to save money on housing and living expenses, and probably expect to return to their college campus or office spaces soon enough.”
Cities that lost the most movers in 2019 and 2020:
Some smaller cities gained movers during the pandemic:
MyMove, on a metro level, shows outbound migration trends of city-dwellers in San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago:
Pew found that many city-dwellers had their mail rerouted to nearby residences in less-populated areas.
Cohn, of Pew, said, “Among those who moved due to the virus, 13% [of respondents] told us they moved to a second home or vacation home, many of which probably are outside cities.”
Top Cities That Gained Most People During The Virus Pandemic:
States That Gained And Lost Most People During The Virus Pandemic:
Real estate experts have warned the “exodus” from cities will last two years.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TlGgcr Tyler Durden
The “fracking” revolution has unleashed an incredible American energy boom over the past decade. America is now the biggest producer of oil and gas in the world, beating Saudi Arabia and Russia. Fracking has contributed to an economic revival in areas of the country once in freefall. Pennsylvania is now second only to Texas in natural gas production, and Ohio is now fifth. This has reduced air pollution by displacing coal.
Joe Biden wants a counter-revolution, but he does not want you to know about it.
Candidate Joe Biden has sent mixed messages.
During the primary debates, Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, said they supported a fracking ban. Their campaign, however, insists that the Biden plan would ban fracking only on federal lands, not on private lands. Fact checkers regularly parrot the talking point.
For the full picture, voters should take a look at Biden’s official clean energy plan. The Biden plan borrows the Green New Deal’s ambitious goal of a “carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.”
Burning natural gas – methane – inevitably emits carbon, so the Biden plan requires eliminating natural gas for electricity generation by 2035.
Electricity generation is the main use of natural gas. It accounts for a third of all natural gas, using 11 trillion cubic feet of gas per year and growing. That is almost twice the amount of natural gas produced in all of Pennsylvania last year. Eliminating all this natural gas demand by 2035 would require idling countless natural gas wells and power plants, devastating local economies in Pennsylvania and elsewhere and destroying many good jobs. Without reliable natural gas electricity, states would experience California-like rolling blackouts.
This Green New Deal goal would never get congressional approval, but that may not matter. Biden promises to achieve his clean energy goals by fiat, issuing executive orders of “unprecedented reach that go well beyond the Obama-Biden Administration platform.” A Biden administration would move to achieve its goal of “carbon-free” electricity generation through an even more aggressive version of President Obama’s “Clean Power Plan” regulations. This Clean Power Plan 2.0 would require utilities to idle, then dismantle, their natural gas power plants.
President Trump’s accusation that Joe Biden would ban fracking is therefore closer to the truth than the fact checkers care to admit. It does not take a master’s degree in communications or journalism to realize that a ban on using natural gas is a ban on extracting it, whether through fracking or through ordinary drilling. That’s the Biden plan.
President Trump, for his part, has been crystal clear: if reelected, he will continue vigorously supporting America’s energy revolution, inexpensive energy, and jobs, as he has for four years.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mjd6a3 Tyler Durden
Last week, we were dumpster-diving for ballots, navigating the depths of a 15-yard box for the 100 stale beer and coffee ground-stained ballots dumped by some malevolent (or lazy) postal worker in Kentucky.This week, another 99 ballots and hundreds of pieces of first-class mail were found dumped by yet another postal worker, this one in New Jersey.
Both ballot-tossing layabouts are being prosecuted by the feds, but it’s unknown at this point if this is their first ballot-tossing caper or just their latest ballot-tossing caper.
It’s hard to judge what’s worse, some disgruntled postal worker tossing ballots or Pennsylvania accepting and counting all ballots – even ones that have no identifying information, the right postmark, and mailed after the election.
We’ll start with the story that made headlines recently when Pennsylvania authorities tossed out 372,000 ballot applications.
#Pennsylvania has rejected hundreds of thousands of mail-in #ballot applications this election year, with the vast majority of those rejections occurring because of #duplicate ballot requests from voters in the state. https://t.co/pm8UTtVHhb
Far from disenfranchising voters, we are assured by Pennsylvania officials that 90% of the applications were duplicates due to confused voters signing up at multiple places and with different groups, according to Just the News. Hmm.
Federal and state court actions this week have amplified the warning issued by the CEO of the polling firm Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly. As I reported at PJMedia, Cahaly predicted Trump could win the state but could very well have it stolen from him through election fraud.
I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids. I think it’s the state he’s most likely to win and not get the votes from.
And when you find out about the allowable ballot chicanery you’ll understand why Cahaly is concerned.
On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court considered an appeal by Republicans to stay a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court ruling allowing ballots to be received and counted up to three days after the election. Since the U.S. Supreme Court was deadlocked 4-4 because John Roberts joined the liberal justices, and because there’s no 9th justice, the court allowed the ruling by the state court to stand. The coups de grace is that ballots will be received and counted “even if they don’t have a clear postmark, as long as there is not proof it was mailed after the polls closed.” That means unless you affirmatively saw Joe Blow physically submitting his ballot and got photographic proof of the actual ballot, there’s nothing that will stand in the way of that ballot being counted. Three days after the election. Without a clear postmark. Holy balls.
Republicans said, hey, wait a minute. Federal statute sets the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November as Election Day. Dia. Which has the same number of syllables as uno. One. Day. Remember when Trump tossed out the idea that maybe Election Day could be moved, instead of all the states changing their election rules for coronavirus to include the mail-in ballots? Remember the outrage? Those critics have scattered to the corners.
But, there’s more! Remember the signature on the ballot that is checked against voter registrations to supposedly ensure voter integrity? Take a seat.
Another Pennsylvania state Supreme Court ruling on Friday held that the signatures on the registration and the ballot don’t have to match. In September, Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar issued guidance that election workers would do no signature matching. The GOP sued to stop her, but Friday’s ruling seems to have settled the issue unless it goes back to John Roberts and the liberal wing of SCOTUS again. All this chicanery to fight COVID-19.
The GOP and Trump campaign sued the largest county in Nevada on Friday to prevent the separation of the ballot from its envelope until GOP election observers can get a better look at the ballots. The issue stems from Clark County, where 70% of the state’s residents reside. The GOP says local officials were preventing poll watchers from observing the processing of votes by keeping them 25 feet away and therefore cannot “meaningfully observe” the process.
Voting by fax? This guy claims to have done it.
The future is great! Just slide in paper, dial number, press start and done! Super easy!
Usually, only people wearing the uniform of our country can vote like this, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures
Sending voted ballots electronically—via fax, email or web portal—is most often reserved for voters who fall under the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA).
Four states—Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, and North Dakota—allow the use of some sort of digital portal to vote. What could go wrong?
Finally for this week, this Washington State resident is upset that his favorite candidate for president is not on the ballot.
Global COVID-19 Cases Top 500,000 In A Day For First Time: Live Updates Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 12:20
Summary:
US tops 80k cases for first time
Global daily cases top 500k
New record reported in Portugal
Austria sees record new cases for 4th day
Brussels imposes new restrictions for 14 days
Spain, Italy weighing stricter measures to fight outbreak
* * *
The US smashed its previous daily record on Friday when it reported 83,304 new cases, exceeding its prior July 29 peak with just 2 weeks to go before election day.
The new cases brought the US tally to 8,499,132 since the start of the pandemic, while another 945 new deaths reported on Friday once again swung the 7-day average for fatalities in the US to its highest level in at least a month. It brought the US death toll to 224,058, as hospitalizations across the US reach their highest levels in months, as we noted last night.
Globally, cases exceeded 42.3 million and deaths exceeded 1.1. million, as the number of new cases reported globally topped 500,000 for the first time yesterday, driven by rising case numbers in the US, Europe and Russia.
While an outbreak across the Midwest and Mountain West has seen states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Montana report multiple record numbers within the span of a week as their total new confirmed cases climbed to record highs, states across Europe have suffered rising hospitalizations, cases, positivity rates and deaths.
As cases have risen, positivity rates have continued to climb across the US.
In Central Europe, Austria reported record new case numbers on Saturday for the fourth day in a row. Slovenia reported a record 1,963 new cases with an all-time high positivity rate of 27.9%. Another 19 deaths, a record for the tiny Alpine state with a population of 2.1 million, were reported, bringing the total death toll to 235. Poland also suffered its deadliest day yet, with 179 deaths, and 13,628 new cases.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel said the pandemic has worsened as a growing number of regional health authorities are struggling to track infections, Merkel said. “We’re not powerless against the virus,” she said. “Our behavior decides how strong and how fast it spreads.”
Of course, a growing body of evidence suggests that the worse an outbreak gets, the harder it is to trace contacts.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is reportedly holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Sunday to declare a national “state of alarm”. The Italian government is also expected to approve new COVID-19 restrictions on Sunday as new cases topped 19k on Friday, the highest number yet.
In Brussels, one of the worst hit regions in all of Europe, a new curfew has been imposed, and museums, theaters, cinemas, swimming pools, fitness clubs and other sport venues will have to shut down. Stores will be forced to close at 2000 local time, with the exception of restaurants and takeaway shops.
Brussels and the five Walloon provinces have 14-day incidence rates that are 2x those of the Flemish provinces in the north of Belgium, ranging from 1,262 per 100,000 in Luxembourg to 2,100 per 100,000 in Liege.
Portugal on Saturday reported yet another record, with 3,669 new cases in a day, more than the prior record of 3,270 reported on Thursday. The new cases took Portugal’s total to 116,109. The number of patients in the ICU rose by 23 to 221, still below the peak of 271 ICU patients from April.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3on0uk1 Tyler Durden
Tesla Warns Its Full Self-Driving Beta “May Do The Wrong Thing At The Worst Time” Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 12:00
Stuck between a rock and a hard place after taking thousands of dollars from customers for vaporware it likely felt it had to release at some point, Tesla has finally pushed out its Full Self Driving beta.
The company, whose Autopilot software has already been at the center of numerous wrecks and deaths that we have documented over the last few years, warns up front about “Full Self Driving” by telling the driver it “may do the wrong thing at the worst time.”
An article by the Verge called the beta “terrifying” and “scary as hell” due to the “way it will be inevitably misused.” The article said that driver reactions have ranged from “that was a little scary” to full-throated enthusiasm for the product and for being a beta tester.
One driver said FSD allowed him to navigate streets without lane markers, something he was unable to do in the past with Autopilot. When the car started making turns, the driver called it: “kind of scary, because we’re not used to that.” He posted a video of his experience:
But not everyone has been excited about the idea of the public beta testing the feature.
Ed Niedermeyer, communications director for Partners for Automated Vehicle Education, said: “Public road testing is a serious responsibility and using untrained consumers to validate beta-level software on public roads is dangerous and inconsistent with existing guidance and industry norms.”
He continued: “Moreover, it is extremely important to clarify the line between driver assistance and autonomy. Systems requiring human driver oversight are not self-driving and should not be called self-driving.”
Recall, a couple of weeks ago we noted that FSD is supposed to allow Tesla vehicles to react to stop signs, stop lights and freeway exits.
At the time we called the software a “convenient promise”; enough of a gesture for Musk to say he fulfilled his previous promise of having Full Self Driving complete by the end of 2020, but a small enough testing size for Musk to not truly have to debut anything of substance on a grand scale.
Watching the software roll out we can’t help but think it could be a long while before a final product is distributed and is being utilized ubiquitously. Until then, don’t be surprised as the stories of both Autopilot and FSD showing off neat “features” like driving through storefronts, continue.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2J6ghnv Tyler Durden
Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard. But over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30 to 40 years on average.
Sure enough, 31 years after the end of the classical gold standard, in 1945, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. The dollar was officially designated the world’s leading reserve currency — a position that it still holds today.
Under that system, the dollar was linked to gold at $35 per ounce. But 25 years later, in 1971, Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing.
Today, the existing monetary system is nearly 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a new monetary system. Gold should once again play a leading role. It may be the only asset that can anchor the international monetary system in these troubled times. But the gold price will be much, much higher.
I’ve written and spoken publicly for years about the prospects for a new gold standard. My convictions have only gotten stronger since the coronavirus and the monetary chaos it generated.
My analysis is straightforward…
International monetary figures have a choice. They can reintroduce gold into the monetary system either on a strict or loose basis (such as a “reference price” in monetary policy decision making).
This can be done as the result of a new monetary conference, a la Bretton Woods. It could be organized by some convening power, probably the U.S. working with China (which might seem unlikely these days, but not as unlikely as you think).
Or they can ignore the problem, let an even bigger debt crisis materialize (that will play out in interest rates and foreign-exchange markets) and watch gold soar to $14,000 per ounce or higher — that’s not a typo — not because they wanted it to but because the system is out of control.
I’ve also said that the former course (a conference) is more desirable — why not avoid the train wreck rather than clear up the wreckage? But the latter course (chaos) is more likely. A conference will probably be ignored until it’s too late.
Either way, the price of gold soars.
The same force that made the dollar the world’s reserve currency is working to dethrone it.
Under the Bretton Woods system, all major currencies were pegged to the dollar at a fixed exchange rate. Indirectly, the other currencies had a fixed gold value because of their peg to the dollar.
Other currencies could devalue against the dollar, and therefore against gold, if they received permission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the dollar could not devalue, at least in theory. It was the keystone of the entire system — intended to be permanently anchored to gold.
From 1950 into the 1960s, the Bretton Woods system worked fairly well. Trading partners of the U.S. who earned dollars could cash those dollars into the U.S. Treasury and be paid in gold at the fixed rate. But by 1970, the U.S. had lost over half of its gold.
In 1950, the U.S. had about 20,000 tons of gold. By 1970, that amount had been reduced to about 9,000 tons. The 11,000-ton decline went to U.S. trading partners, primarily Germany, France and Italy, who earned dollars and cashed them in for gold.
If you want to see where the dollar is ultimately heading, you should look to the U.K. pound sterling. It had previously held the dominant reserve currency role starting in 1816, following the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the official adoption of the gold standard by the U.K.
Many observers assume the 1944 Bretton Woods conference was the moment the U.S. dollar replaced sterling as the world’s leading reserve currency. But, that replacement of sterling by the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency was a process that took 30 years, from 1914 to 1944.
The period from 1919–1939 was really one in which the world had two major reserve currencies — dollars and sterling — operating side by side.
Finally, in 1939, England suspended gold shipments in order to fight the Second World War and the role of sterling as a reliable store of value was greatly diminished. The 1944 Bretton Woods conference was merely recognition of a process of dollar reserve dominance that had started in 1914.
Like the pound sterling, slippage in the dollar’s role as the leading global reserve currency is not necessarily something that would happen overnight, but is more likely to be a slow, steady process. The change is often so gradual that few notice it until it can no longer be denied.
A major creditor nation is emerging to challenge the U.S. today just as the U.S. emerged to challenge the U.K. in 1914. That power is China. The U.S. had massive gold inflows from 1914-1944. China has been experiencing massive gold inflows in recent years.
China has acquired thousands of metric tonnes since without reporting these acquisitions to the IMF or World Gold Council.
Based on available data on imports and the output of Chinese mines, actual Chinese government and private gold holdings are likely much higher than official listings. It’s hard to pinpoint because China operates through secret channels and does not officially report its gold holdings except at rare intervals.
China’s gold acquisition is not the result of a formal gold standard, but has been happening by stealth acquisitions on the market. They’ve used intelligence and military assets, covert operations and market manipulation. But the result is the same. Gold’s been flowing to China in recent years, just as gold flowed to the U.S. before Bretton Woods.
China is not alone in its efforts to achieve creditor status and to acquire gold. Russia has greatly increased its gold reserves over the past several years and has little external debt. The move to accumulate gold in Russia is no secret, and as Putin advisor Sergey Glazyev has said, “The ruble is the most gold-backed currency in the world.”
Iran has also imported significant amounts of gold, mostly through Turkey and Dubai, although no one knows the exact amount, because Iranian gold imports are a state secret.
In recent years, other countries, including BRICS members Brazil, India and South Africa, have joined Russia and China in their desire to break free of U.S. dollar dominance.
The dollar collapse has already begun and the need for a new monetary order is now emerging. I believe it will involve gold. The question is whether it will be an orderly process resulting from a new monetary conference, or a chaotic one.
Unfortunately, it’ll probably be chaotic.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Hx6Rk4 Tyler Durden
PG&E May Cut Power To Nearly 500k As California Wildfire Risk Surges Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 11:10
Utility Pacific Gas and Electric’s meteorology team warned Friday that one of the strongest offshore wind events of the fire season could arrive in Northern California beginning Sunday. Ahead of the wind event, PG&E may be forced to cut power to hundreds of thousands of customers to avoid trees and branches from blowing into power lines, sparking fires.
PG&E said more than 466,000 customers across 38 counties, mainly situated in Northern and Central California, could risk potential power shutoffs as early as Sunday morning. The outages could disrupt large swaths of the San Francisco Bay area, the Sierra Nevada foothills, the Central Valley, and the Central Coast.
“Extremely dry, windy conditions with high gusts pose an increased risk for damage to the electric system that has the potential to ignite fires in areas with critically dry vegetation,” the power company said.
The weather forecast for Sunday shows northerly gust of up to 80 mph and low humidity levels. Wind speeds are expected to stay around 20-30 mph, with temperatures in the low 70s, making it a perfect environment for wildfire conditions. The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag warnings for Northern California through Tuesday.
California has faced “extremely high winds, extremely low humidity, extremely dry fuels due to the hottest average temperatures over the last six months, according to records that go back 126 years, and extreme drought across the territory given lack of rainfall,” said Scott Strenfel, PG&E’s head of meteorology and fire science.
Another round of potential blackouts would be a devastating blow for the state, already battered by extreme weather this fire season, scorching more than 4 million acres so far. PG&E has preemptively cut power four times this season, though the new round of outages could be the largest one yet.
Here are the current wildfires burning in California:
Video: PG&E’s Public Broadcast Warning Customers About Potential Outages
BLM Protesters Call For Defunding San Bernardino Police After Officer Kills Armed Black Suspect Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 10:45
The nationwide fervor that drove millions of white college students out into the streets to protest systemic racism and police brutality has since cooled, probably because, once the dust settled, most normal people had a second to survey the facts and realize that thousands of unarmed black men actually aren’t being killed by police every year in the US (the real figure is closer to 9).
But that hasn’t stopped a core contingent of BLM protesters from carrying on with their radical demands to defund police, seizing on every police-involved shooting, regardless of the circumstances, to create chaos and push their radical agenda.
In the latest example of this, a mob of protesters gathered in down town San Bernardino, Calif. Friday night, one day after police killed an armed suspect who reportedly tried to overpower an officer as he reached for his firearm.
Ignoring the circumstances surrounding the shooting, scores of Black Lives Matter demonstrators amassed in front of the King Tut liquor store in San Bernardino on Friday evening – the same spot where the suspect, Mark Matthew Bender, was shot and killed by a responding officer one day earlier.
SAN BERNARDINO: Earlier BLM protesters called to “abolish the police” in unison in front of the King Tut Liquor store where Mark Matthew Bender was shot and killed by an officer after reaching for a weapon while resisting arrest pic.twitter.com/uprmdz8Fad
Videos of the scene like the clip embedded above show protesters chanting “fuck the police” and “defund the police” (chants that have become virtually interchangeable in the modern climate, where radical left-wing priorities have been skillfully embroidered into the mainstream political discourse).
“We can abolish the police, we don’t need these motherf**kers, we don’t need them!” one speaker shouted as the crowd cheered.
SAN BERNARDINO: “What I can do, is tear down the system that lifts up crackers with badges”
Initially, a lone officer responded to a report that a man was behaving erratically – “jumping on top of cars and just going crazy” – in the liquor store parking lot.
Body camera footage released by the police showed one officer approaching the suspect and ordering him to put his hands up. Bender shouts: “Why do you have a gun on me?” in response. He briefly raised his hands, moments later, the man seemingly changed his mind and put his hands back down.
The female caller told 911 that the man was armed, “jumping on top of cars” and “just going crazy.”
Police said Bodycam footage released by law enforcement shows an officer approaching a black man wearing a white T-shirt and black shorts, who police said fit the description of the suspect. The officer calls out to the man, telling him to put his hands in the air so he can see them. Bender shouts: “Why do you have a gun on me?” though he appears to comply. However, moments later, he puts his hands down, shouting “don’t touch me” as he walks away from the police.
An officer tries to tackle Bender, but he fights him off with relative ease. Finally, in one final video released by the PD, Bender can be seen reaching for something from his waistband.
Regarding the last Press Release we just published, here is video of the incident. The images can be graphic, therefore, Viewer Discretion is Advised. Investigation #2020-114893. pic.twitter.com/9VM3oOZNQp
The office takes a step back, and fires at point blank range. Frozen frames of the video appear to show Bender pulling a gun out of his waistband. Police said a loaded handgun was recovered from the scene.
However, in an indication of just how radical the remaining protesters have become, those who took to the streets on Friday claimed that the officer still shouldn’t have fired.
SAN BERNARDINO: A BLM supporter claims the officer who shot and killed Mark Matthew Bender after realizing he was armed with a weapon wasn’t justified
The man claims “whether he had a gun or not, he (the officer) is supposed to follow a certain protocol” pic.twitter.com/it2sfB8TSZ
One of the great tragedies of the modern age is that we have stopped “listening” to each other. There was a time when individuals could have a conversation about political issues. While neither person would change their position, they could politely agree to disagree. Today, the media has locked individuals into “information silos” where they disregard any “facts” which conflict with personal bias. If an intruder infiltrates the space, the “mob” levies a torrent of hate-filled expletives and threats
More than ever, such is the case in 2020.
“For the second election in a row, voters will cast ballots for the candidate they dislike less, not whose policies they like more.” – Lance Roberts, Real Investment Show
Today, the division between parties is greater than at any other single point in history. (2017 was the latest data from a 2019 report. That gap is even larger currently as Social Media fuels the divide.) The divide between parties has many dire long-term outcomes, from transitioning to a socialistic economy to the lack of real positive changes.
How can progress occur when no one is willing to listen, much compromise, with anyone else?
The Cynic In Me
In 2020, both parties are proposing fairly disastrous policies.
Biden’s proposed tax changes, green energy plans, and Government takeover of “healthcare” would indeed be bad for the markets. Such policies would weaken corporate profitability, specific sectors (energy and healthcare) would come under stress, and the surge in debt will make the Fed’s programs less effective.
On the other hand, Trump’s plans are not much better economically. More bailouts, poorly chosen infrastructure projects, and proposed tax policy lead to further indebtedness, larger deficits, and slower economic growth.
However, the reality is that while Presidential candidates make lots of claims on the campaign trail, it is Wall Street and Corporations that ultimately dictate policy. Such is why many suggest that our Congressmen wear racing jackets to see who is sponsoring them for office.
If you think for a moment that Congress comes up with, and writes, bills on their own, you are sadly mistaken. They are not that smart. Such is why whenever bills come to the floor for a vote, they always favor the group or industry whose lobby wrote and promoted the bill in the beginning.
I am not cynical. It is just how the Government works.
Okay, let’s dig into the policies with some help from our friends at the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB)
The Proposed Policies
“President Donald Trump has issued a 54 bullet point agenda. It calls for lowering taxes, strengthening the military, increasing infrastructure spending, expanding spending on veterans and space travel. It also calls for lowering drug prices, expanding school and health care choice, ending wars abroad, and reducing spending on immigrants. He also has proposed a “Platinum Plan” for black Americans, which increases spending on education and small businesses.
Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden has proposed a detailed agenda. From increasing spending on child care and education, health care, and retirement, to disability benefits, infrastructure, research, and climate change. It also aims to lower the costs of prescription drugs, ending wars abroad, and increasing taxes on high-income households and corporations.
Under our central estimate, both plans would add substantially to the debt. Specifically, we find the Trump plan would add $4.95 trillion to the debt over the 2021 to 2030 budget window. The Biden plan would add $5.60 trillion.” – CFRB
The table below breaks down the spending by candidates in different areas of the economy.
Assuming that both candidates were able to get their respective policies passed, which is highly doubtful, the impact on economic growth will be negative as the Federal debt surges higher.
The Cost
“Under the candidates’ plans, debt will continue to grow over the next decade and beyond. Debt has already grown from 39 percent of the economy in 2008 to 76 percent in 2016. It is estimated to reach 98 percent by the end of FY2020. Under current law. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects debt will continue to rise to 109 percent of GDP by 2030.
Our central estimate of the Trump plan finds debt would rise to 125 percent of the economy by 2030, excluding the effects of further COVID relief. Under our central estimate of the Biden plan, debt would rise to 128 percent of the economy by 2030, again excluding COVID proposals. For context, the standing historical record for debt is 106 percent of GDP, set just after World War II.” – CFRB.
As discussed in CBO & The One-Way Trip Of American Debt,” instead of running on a policy platform to reduce spending and the debt, both candidates have decided that more deficit spending is the only solution.
“Debt continues to increase in most years thereafter, reaching 195 percent of GDP by 2050. That amount of debt will be the highest in the nation’s history, and will increase further. High and rising federal debt makes the economy more vulnerable to rising interest rates and, depending on financing of the debt, rising inflation. The growing debt burden also raises borrowing costs and slows the growth of the economy and national income. There is an increased risk of a fiscal crisis or a gradual decline in the value of Treasury securities.” – CBO
The Debt
The policies put forth by both President Trump and Joe Biden require substantial debt issuance to meet those objectives. Given that mandatory spending already consumes more than 100% of Federal revenues, the debt increases will be massive.
Unfortunately, what continues to elude policy-makers in Washington is that the continuing expansion of debt erodes economic growth.
It is a myth that the economy has grown by roughly 5% since 1980. In reality, economic growth rates have been steadily declining over the past 40 years, supported by a massive push into deficit spending by both the Government and consumers.
Up until 1980, economic growth was trending higher from roughly 5% to a peak of nearly 15%. There were a couple of reasons for this.
Lower levels of debt allowed for personal savings to remain robust, fueling productive investment in the economy.
The focus of the economy was primarily on production and manufacturing, which has a high multiplier effect on the economy.
Unlike the steadily growing economic environment before 1980, the post-1980 economy has experienced a steady decline. Therefore, a statement the economy has been growing at 5% since 1980 is grossly misleading. The trend of economic growth, wages, and productivity (5-year averages) show the real problem.
As wages declined, families turned to credit to fill the gap in maintaining their current living standards. What should be evident is that it requires increasing amounts of debt to create each dollar of economic growth. Such is due to the “diminished rate of return” for each successive increase in debt-funded growth.
Debt Isn’t The Answer
Such is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels going into the future. As I showed just recently in the “2nd Derivative Of Debt:”
“From 1947 to 2008, the U.S. economy had real, inflation-adjusted economic growth than had a linear growth trend of 3.2%.
However, following the 2008 recession, the growth rate dropped to the exponential growth trend of roughly 2.2%. Unfortunately, instead of reducing outstanding debt problems, the Federal Reserve provided policies that fostered even greater unproductive debt and leverage levels.
Coming out of the 2020 recession, the economic trend of growth will be somewhere between 1.5% and 1.75%. Given the amount of debt added to the overall system, the ongoing debt service will continue to retard economic growth.”
Given the permanent loss in output and rising unproductive debt levels, the recovery will be slower and more protracted than those hoping for a “V-shaped” recovery.Notably, the U.S. economy will never return to either its long-term linear or exponential growth trends.
The Markets
The Republicans claim that Biden will crash the market. The Democrats suggest the same with President Trump. From a portfolio management perspective, we need to understand what happens during election years to stock markets and investor returns.
Since President Rosevelt’s victory in 1944, there have only been two losses during presidential election years: 2000 and 2008. Those two years corresponded with the “Dot.com Crash” and the “Financial Crisis.” On average, stocks produced their second-best performance in Presidential election years.
However, it is worth noting that while returns are positive regardless of who is elected, it should be of no surprise the markets performed better during a year when voters re-elect the incumbent.
The market hates uncertainty.
What markets do prefer is “political gridlock.”
“A split Congress historically has been better for stocks, which tend to like that one party doesn’t have too much sway. Stocks gained close to 30% in 1985, 2013, and 2019, all under a split Congress, according to LPL Financial. The average S&P 500 gain with a divided Congress was 17.2% while GDP growth averaged 2.8%.” – USA Today
It’s Not A Risk-Free Outcome
We can derive from the data that the odds suggest the market will end this year on a positive note. However, such says little about next year. If you go back to our data table above, the 1st year of a new Presidential cycle is roughly a 50/50 outcome. It is also the lowest average return year going back to 1833.
I don’t envy the person who takes the Oval Office in the months ahead. Whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2021, will enormous fiscal challenges as trillion-dollar annual budget deficits will become the new normal. As we discussed recently, the national debt is projected to exceed the post-World War II record high over the next four-year term and reach twice the economy’s size within 30 years.
Four major trust funds are also headed for insolvency, including the Highway and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds, within the next presidential term. Furthermore, economic growth rates will continue to decline as the “wealth gap” widens.
There is no “will” to fix the problems plaguing the economy and welfare system before they break. Such is why whoever wins the Presidency, we all still wind up losing.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dW29rX Tyler Durden
Recent College Grads Face Worst Employment Prospects In Decades Thanks To COVID-19 Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/24/2020 – 09:55
Just like their forebears (the millennials who graduated from college between 2008 and 2012) it appears Gen Z is facing a labor-market shock of serious magnitude, spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and its attendant impact on the American economy, swelling the unemployment rolls while also disrupting the typical pipeline of internships and entry-level gigs that usually help students find permanent entry-level jobs.
In a report published Friday morning, Bloomberg illustrated the difficulties faced by college graduates, and students in their early 2020s, who have just seen their job market plans go up in smoke. Data released yesterday showed the number of Americans filing for the first time for unemployment benefits fell to 787k (870k exp), the lowest point since lockdowns began.
But even worse for young people, the unemployment rate for those between 20 and 24 climbed to 12.5% in September, the highest among all adults. Joblessness peaked at nearly 26% in April at the height of the pandemic, which was 4x the level two months earlier, a bigger jump than in any previous recession going back to 1940.
Following on from this, recent college graduates during the worst of COVID-19 saw unemployment peak at 20% in June, the highest of any age group with at least a bachelor’s degree.
That’s compared with a 13% peak during the years immediately after the financial crisis.
Young people without college degrees fared just as badly, as workers under the age of 20 saw an even larger spike in unemployment.
Bloomberg interviewed Tessa Filipczyk, a young recent college graduate, who hoped to kick-start her career in marine and coastal sciences. But after applying to dozens of jobs, and hearing nothing back, Flipiczyk has started babysitting for neighbors and doing whatever she can for cash.
For Tessa Filipczyk, this year was supposed to springboard her career in marine and coastal science. Graduating in June from the University of California at Davis, Filipczyk, 22, had applied for jobs related to ocean conservation, marine plant research and climate change advocacy. But none of those have panned out.
Now, she’s tutoring three children she used to babysit and it’s just eight hours of work a week.
“I was like ‘OK, I’m going to find a job; I’m going to work for a year and then I’m going to go to grad school,’” said Filipczyk, who’s living with her parents in Burlingame, California. “That all just got swept under the rug by Covid.”
And for students like Filipczyk who have missed the employment pipeline on their way out of college, does this mean their entire four years were a waste.
“There is a structure to the labor market – if you miss the entrance, how do you get back in?” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “If you veer off the career path by necessity, how do you get back into the pipeline?”
That’s a huge problem for this generation of young people, who, in many cases, borrowed larger sums than their forebears as college tuition rates peaked during the 2010s, while the quantity of young people with college degrees also reached a new level of saturation. Economic research suggests that young people who struggle to get a job early in their career can see lower total earnings dog them for their entire professional lives.
Will we see a wave of these students enroll in non-target MBA programs three years from now, when they get tired of working retail and decide it’s time to give a real career one last shot?
Or better yet: maybe some of them will give writing code a try: “Getting rejected constantly and being in that emotion was pretty hard,” Ghadiyali said of her early post-grad challenges. “Learning how to write code was far easier.”
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3kmoqSi Tyler Durden
